Oct 15, 2005

NFL Picks Week 6

Before we start, a sad note: Jason Collier has died at the age of 28.

Jason was a center for the Hawks and (more notably) a center for Georgia Tech in the late 90s- early 00s. He grew up in Spring field, OH, and went to Springfield Central Catholic. When I was a high school basketball ref, I did two or three Springfield CC JV games, and then satyed around and watched Jason play on the varsity team.

(One of those JV games was when I received the worst tongue lashing from a varsity ref watching my game; I deserved it and never forgot what he told me. Another story for another time.)

He signed a letter of intent with Indiana, I believe, and either backed out or transferred immediately and enrolled in Ga Tech. He then was drafted by the Hawks and was having a solid career.

It's a weird feeling when people you are familiar with - and who are younger than you - die.

Anyway, on to the picks, after a solid week 5:

Det 27, Car 20 - I'm more and more convinced of this pick after seeing everyone go the other way. Det is a completely different team at home.

NYG 27, Dal 24, OT: Dallas will have a letdown - Parcells will try not to let it happen, but it will - and the Giants are coming off of a bye. I'm starting to be a believer in the Giants offense.

Min 13, Chi 10. Where are the points coming from? Min will score 10-17; Chi scored 10 last week against an average Cleveland defense - and now they are without Thomas Jones. An upset here.

Atl 31, NO 24. Just seems like a shootout to me.

Cin 24, Ten 20. I have a feel for all of the NFL teams - how they score, what their strengths are on offense and defense - except for Tennessee. Truly, I know nothing about them. Are they a passing O? How is their run D? I really have not seen much of their games at all. This is the one team I'm in the dark about.

TB 20, Mia 9. How, exactly, will Miami score here? In Tampa?

Pit 24, Jax 13 - Pittsburgh - and Cowher - are too good to lose a game like this - at home - when Ben is out. I expect lots and lots of runs, with the occasional trick play with Randle El.

KC 31, Was 17. I went out drinking last night with a guy who was not even born when Gibbs-Vermeil last met. That's scary. KC will explode in this game.

Buf 24, NYJ 16 - I just feel like there will be a whole lot of turnovers in this game - say, 6. That means points.

SD 31, Oak 21. I'm sold on San Diego. They will win this division. They have the offense and enough of a D to win these types of games.

NE 27, Den 24: Derek, if Den wins this game, I will recant my comment on the Denver line. But I don't see it. NE will win late, as usual.

Sea 26, Hou 10. I know, this looks and smells like a trap. But how can this game NOT be a blowout by halftime?

Ind 31, Stl 20. St Louis will score enough junk TDs to keep it close at the end. Go Go Go Marc Bulger!

**Biased Pick coming up!***
Cle 17, Bal 13. Boy, I hope this happens. Let's get up 10 early and watch the crowd turn against the Ravens. If we fall behind early, then we're in trouble.

Best Bests: (Last week: 12-4-1; overall, 43-34-2)
17 picks:
Det -1
NYG +3
Min +3
Min-Chi UNDER 37.5
Atl/NO OVER 43.5
TB -4
TB/Mia UNDER 34.5
Pit -3.5
KC -6
Buf -3.5
Buf/Mia OVER 33
SD -2.5
NE +3.5
Sea -9.5
Hou/Sea UNDER 46
Stl +13.5
and a bonus college pick!
Wyoming -6.5 today.

5 comments:

dzahn07 said...

I don't know who sucks more, the Browns or my football picks this weekend.

Eric Z said...

The Browns just sucked this weekend....

Your picks seem to suck every weekend. Maybe you are the Houston Texans of your pick em pool??

dzahn07 said...

Well here is the best part of being me...I know that I suck so I know when I should hang it up. And I'm in the middle of the pack in my pickem pool due to two outstanding weeks to start off the year. And there is no way you can continue at this rate, so I'm willing to put a little side wager on you vs. me for the rest of the year. Who can pick the most winners ATS. I will email you my picks on Friday night (since I have to have my picks in for my one pool before Saturday), and you can post them on the board when you do your right up. Loser has to spot the winner money to enter their normal NCAA tournament pools (limit 4).

Eric Z said...

Argh! Damn Rams.

8-8-1.

Derek - as far as our challenge, that's fine, I can participate.
You did mention that I "only" beat you by one game last week.

As Jon Lovitz said, "that would be more, now, wouldn't it?"

But you don't make money by picking every game. You do it by identifying the biggest gaps between your expectation and the line.

I bet I won't beat the spread for all games at a 55% rate - but I don't have to. I just need 55% on those that I choose to participate in.

dzahn07 said...

OK then. You can pick 16 picks including over/unders and college. Does that sound good?