NFL Week 3: Intro to UTH

 

It’s so funny to go back and read these posts and how much energy we used to put forth on deciding on where to stay.   So after the big decision to leave the Monte and go to the Mirage in 2007, we quickly moved to the Palazzo in 2008.  I’m not too sure why we did this other than it was brand new and we could still sleep 4 to a room as they were bigger rooms.   I do remember that they had closed down half of the casino because of the market crash and the gambling was a little lacking so we were always going back over to the Mirage.  This trip had a ton of highlights; Emeril’s chef’s table, Wiz-Kermit argument on doubling on 16, Eric singing Diana Ross while hitting a hard 8 for the table, Wiz and I betting the don’t pass while rolling and Kermit betting the pass line and Wiz and I getting hot (at an empty table), Eric chucking dice into someone’s drink, watching basketball in a poolside Cabana,  and of course the infamous Micah wedding ring incident that put him into immediate retirement.  It was also the first year where Eric found the Ultimate Texas Holdem game and introduced it to the group:   

 

I introduced Layup to the table Ultimate Texas Hold em game - I started with 100, and left with....120; Layup started with 200 and left with...about 600. He started betting the sucker bonus bets and hit. Good for him.

 

Then Layup and I went over to the Ultimate Texas Hold Em Poker table game. Great game - I'll explain more about it later. It was just Layup and I and the dealer - a 60-ish year old man who could be compared to Wilford Brimley. (Layup likes Cliff Clavin, but I say no.). We start talking basketball - he loved Western Kentucky - and we found out that he used to referree high school basketball in Michigan. Well, some of you know that I reffed JV ball in Ohio when I got out of school, so the dealer and I hit it off immediately. Layup, however, was not finding the conversation to his liking. It got so bad that it got in the way of his dealing. He would be holding the cards, ready to give us our 2nd card - but get engrossed in his stories (one of them was his recollection of reffing Derek Jeter in a high school game.) He held the cards for a good 45-60 seconds while talking - and not dealing. Oh, this was driving Layup crazy. I enjoyed watching him get more and more irritated.

 

There was also something that happened on Sunday at the craps table, but no one blogged about it and I can’t remember.   If Lee or Wiz can remember please let me know.  Anyway, onto the picks:

 

Texans at Panthers -8: Took the Panthers as my suicide pick.

Cardinals 21 at Jaguars 17 (+7):  I like the Jags to keep it close.  Week 3 tends to be the kitchen sink game for these types of bad teams.  I expect a let down game from the Cardinals

Colts 14 at Titans 17 (-5.5):  I’m not a fan of either team.  Titans are not good this year, but found a way to pull one out last week. While the Colts covered for me last week, Wentz was horrible.  I that was a horrendous game. 

Ravens 31 at Lions 13 (+8):  Ravens kill bad teams.  The Lions can’t stop the run.  I know this is a letdown spot for the Ravens, but I’ve been on the other side of a Ravens let down game too many times.   

Skins 17 at Bills 24 (-7.5):    I don’t know what to do with this one.  I don’t hate Heinke but the Skins D is struggling.  I think the Bills are overvalued, but they come back home after losing their season opener so I expect maximum effort.

Saints 10 at Pats 21 (-3):  How is this line not higher.  I don’t know how the Saints will score in this one. 

Chargers 28 at Chiefs 31 (-6.5):  Chargers always plays the Chiefs tight in Arrowhead.  Chiefs D is problematic.  Like a close game here.

Atl 17 at Giants 14 (-3): Daniel Jones at home is horrible.  Bet on him too many times in this spot. And this line is a total trap.

Bears 13 at Browns 21 (-7):  Are we sure Baker is healthy?   Bears run D is solid, so it will be up to Baker to throw to some bad WRs due to injuries. 

Bengals 21 at Steelers 27 (-3):  How did I not see that let down by the Steelers last week. They do this every time. Beat a really good team and then lose a layup of a game.  The only concern here is if TJ Watt plays. That Raiders game changed when he went out.  

Dolphins 17 at Raiders 14 (-4):  What is the drop off between Brissett and Tua?  Zero.  Raiders are riding so high with people talking about David Carr as a MVP candidate.   All the bets are coming in on the Raiders.   Love this spot for the Dolphins. 

Jets 9 at Broncos 17 (-10):  The Broncos are so over valued right now, but how can you take the Jets on the road against that D?   

Bucs 22 at Rams 20 (+1.5):  Rams run game is struggling…who cares since the Bucs run D is amazing so the Rams will be forced to throw the ball. Stafford in his first big game.  I don’t like it.     

Seahawks 21 at Vikings 28 (+1.5):  Vikings should be 2-0, but now are 0-2 because of two bonehead plays.  They finally return to home where they are so much better.   Seahawks can’t stop the run and I’m confused as to why the Seahawks are favored here.

Packers 28 at 49ers 35 (-3.5):  Something is seriously wrong with the Packers D and the niners corners are hurting. Think this is a shoot out.   

Eagles at Cowboys (-4): Aren’t these Monday night NFC East divisional games always 3 points?   

 

 

SuperContest 3-6-1

 

Ravens

Falcons

Steelers

Dolphins

Vikings

 

Best Bets 15-14-1

Jags

Ravens

Pats

Pats Under

Chargers

Falcons

Browns Under

Steelers

Dolphins

Broncos Under

Vikings

Vikings Over

Packers Over

Eagles

NFL Week 2: Transition to the Mirage

 March 2007 was when everything changed out in Vegas.  The main group left the Monte Carlo after being there for 10 years.  I remember when we first stayed at the Monte when it first opened.  That was when our daily budget was $100 a day and we would play 12 hours of 4-8 limit hold em. We would go over to the New York New York to get a taste of a nicer casino.   

After the 2006 trip, we all made the decision that it was time to leave as the rooms were rough and the gambling was lacking.    We all joined Wiz and Micah at the Mirage and have been there for the last 14 years.   We had hooked Don and Mike to join as a part of the main group, but for this trip we lost Jay, Laura, and Lee.  

We were still at a time where there were no TVs at the tables, so that required us to travel to a sportsbook to watch the basketball games. Maryland was still solid at this point, so we had to go to Caesar's Palace to watch the Maryland game as they had a bar where we could all hang out and drink.  Watching basketball games with Eric, Wiz, and Micah back then was pure comedy.  So much  name calling, emotional outbursts, and side gambling that keeps everyone entertained.   Here are a couple of clips from Eric’s and Wiz’s recap from the morning session of games:

“As Wiz has said, there was a lot of nervous moments in that game, compounded by seeing Louisville up 30 over a weak Stanford team. I pulled a Khruschev at one point, taking off my loafer and banging it on the bar at Caesar's.” 

 

“But as the Terps started to break away, we broke out in celebration. I distinctly remember a free throw with about 1 min to play to put the Terps up 10; Micah was just about to do a strip tease on the bar; Derek and Wiz were hurting each other doing high-fives; and I was playing the coach, nervously pacing back and forth behind the bar, hoping the clock would tick faster than ever before.”

 

“During the game Derek was playing video poker but Eric and myself somehow took over the machine from him, while playing with his money we decided to play the “double down” bet which means you have a chance to double your winnings if you pick a card higher than the dealers. We hit a straight and decide to go for the “double down” bet. Dealer’s card is a King, we are dejected. Somehow Eric picks the Ace and again we celebrate like we won a million dollars when in reality it was $2.25”

 

That was one of Eric’s most memorable traits. His ability to plan for the group and then being so creative on making any moment fun for all of us.  His excitement, energy and emotions were contagious.  That’s why so many people loved him and he was just so much fun to be around. 

 

How does this play into week 2 picks?   Well one of my most memorable traits is to over react.  Usually with anger.   But in terms of the NFL, I tend to overreact to week 1 games.   I’m going to try and not do that here as I tend to do poorly in week 2.  Onto the picks 

 

Giants 17 at Redskins 20 (-3.5):  Why is this 3.5?  Giants weren’t that bad and Fitz is gone.   Line doesn’t make sense. I’m staying away.   

Broncos 21 at Jags 20 (+6):  Not going to read too much into the Jags Houston game as I didn’t like them on the road for their first game.  Broncos traveling for the second week in a row and didn’t look great against the Giants.   I really like the Jags here and can’t believe they are getting 6 points at home.

Texans 10 at Browns 28 (-12.5):  Browns looked great, except for the 4^th quarter.  This is a must win game at home against a team riding high.  

Bills 17 at Dolphins 21 (+3.5):  Need to make as much money as possible on the Dolphins D before Vegas catches on.  Dolphins will be able to move the ball.  I know that the Bills own the Dolphins, and this could be a let down game for the Dolphins after that huge win against the Pats.   Will tread

Rams 24 at Colts 21 (+3.5): This is a trap if I ever seen one and I would of fallen for this in years past.   Everyone is talking about the Rams and how dominate they are and Stafford is a MVP candidate and the Colts didn’t look great last week.  That Bears game was closer than one would think with fucking Andy Daulton as QB has me a little cautious.     

49ers 17 at Eagles 20 (+3.5):  49ers banged up and second week on the road.  What an amazing back door cover by the Lions last week.  Eagles looked dominate mainly on D.  Everyone is still healthy.  Looks like Hurts has some weapons.  I love the Eagles here to win outright.

Bengals 17 at Bears 24 (-2.5):  Bengals coach is horrific.  Now put them on the road getting less than 3 points?  I’ll take the Bears, even with Daulton who shouldn’t be starting.

Saints 14 at Panthers 21  (+3): Why are the Panthers underdogs?  Division game with a home team as a dog.  I’ll take it.  Plus

Raiders 10 at Steelers 31 (-5.5):  Raiders at home last week, opening up that stadium, in a crazy game will be going on the road against a top rated D.   Big Ben looks solid, nothing special.  I think this will be a huge blowout.

Pats 24 at Jets 17 (+6): In division games I like to take home dogs.  But I just can’t.  I watched that Jets game and I can’t imagine the Pats D letting Wilson do what he did in the second half.   Plus the Pats own the Jets. 

Vikings 24 at Cards 27  (-3.5):  Both teams are heading in the opposite directions after week 1.   The Bengals game shouldn’t of been that close, but the Bengals have a horrible coach that let the Vikings back in.  I think the Vikings will get their offense moving, but I also think Murray is finally healthy.  Have we all of a sudden forgot how back Kingsbury is?   I’m taking the Vikings here.   

Falcons 21 at Bucs 28 (-12.5):  I believe this is the first time ever a team was favored in week 1 and then is a double digit dog in week 2.  This is such an over reaction in my eyes.   Falcons should be able to pass the ball and keep the back door open. 

Titans 17 at Seahawks 35 (-5.5): I have a 50-1 superbowl ticket on the Seahawks.   I thought all offseason the Titans were in big trouble and faded them in week 1.  I think this line is too low. 

Cowboys 28 at Chargers 35 (-3):  Chargers have a real coach and a healthy D.  Cowboys are banged up and have a horrible coach. 

KC 31 at Ravens 28 (+3.5):  This is the Ravens superbowl. They will be able to run the ball.  Jackson will be amped up after costing the Ravens the game.  So much hype about Mahommes never losing in September and that might still be the case, but the Ravens are still getting 3.5 points at home in primetime. 

Lions 10 at Packers 28 (-11):  I have no clue on this one.   Lions are bad.  Packers should be better, but Rodgers attitude has me very very concerned.   Gun to my head I’m going with the Packers, mainly because I need them to be good for fantasy football purposes. 

 

 

SuperContest 1-3-1 (not a good start)

Eagles

Ravens

Jaguars

Bears

Steelers

 

Top Picks (7-6-1)

Panthers

Bears

Dolphins

Eagles

Jags

Atl

Ravens

Chargers

Steelers

Vikings

Vikings Over

Browns

Dolphins Under

Seahawks

Seahawks over

Pats Under

NFL Week 1- 2006 Vegas Trip

 That’s right.  It’s back.  As everyone knows its been a very tough 18 months for the blog.  We took a year off from the SuperContest last year, but Wiz and I are back in for a joint entry named The Candiotti Men in honor of Eric.  I’m also going to try and attempt to do Eric’s weekly themed NFL picks this year in his honor.  I was looking at the past posts of Eric’s and he did 14 years of these picks. 14 years!!!  And his themes were so hilarious; Price Is Right games, Seinfeld characters, Football Refs, Announcers, Masters Holes, Casinos, Asian Food, Asian Vacations, Random Photos from China, Game Shows, Afternoon TV, closed Resturants (my favorite), Anagrams, and Cleveland Sports Losses.  He loved thinking about the themes at the beginning of the year, taking time to map it all out, and then hunting down obscure pictures for each week.  He would wake up super early on Saturday to make sure that it would get posted. He used to get so mad that we would text him our comments and not post them in the blog.  I knew that bothered him so I would just text him more and more and never comment on these, but I loved reading these weekly posts and I deeply miss them.    

 So for this year, I will be posting my thoughts on the games and posting our SuperContest entry and best bets with the theme being Eric’s greatest Vegas recap stories from the blog. I’ve spent the last two days going through 14 years of Vegas recaps and I have to narrow it down so most of these topics will be highlighting his losses!     

 So week one theme will be highlighting the first Vegas recap on FJ.  This was back in March 2006.   This trip was significant for several reasons:

 

• The last time we stayed at the Monte Carlo.  4 to a room!  I believe this was the last time we did this as well.
• Poker was still the main game that was played by most people.  It was a big deal to get the poker rate back then. 
• This was the first trip that we were introduced to both Don and Mike. 
• Nice Dinners were now a mainstay on our trips instead of going to Sbarros for a quick bite to eat. Don and Mike introduced us to Mesa Grill and Craft.  

And this trip supplied some hilarious stories:

 

• Backdoor action:  I remember Wiz and I yelling this at a $25 BJ table at the Monte Carlo.  
• Credit Card Roulette:  The first time we did this at a dinner.  Don was the loser at Mesa Grill for a measly $695. 
• Eric getting angry that $5 craps tables were hard to find and $25 BJ tables . 
• Don asking Carol “What do you see in him” when I got up from the table to go to the bathroom. 
• The 16 vs 10 incident with Lee’s brother in law.  #neverforget

 

But it was also the first time we saw a weakness in Eric’s College Basketball betting strategy. He was a superior College Basketball handicapper.  When he would do his research he tended to be pretty accurate.  That’s not to say that he was always win money, because he was also a degenerate.  He could never single out a handful of games that he felt strongly about and call it quits. No, he would bet those games and then another 20 games and give it all back. But all in all he would walk away with money.  And this trip was no different.  Eric felt confident going into Friday session during the opening weekend of March Madness.   Eric increased his wager amount after having a solid day on Thursday and placed $77 on 19 games.  Now remember back then, our budgets were still pretty modest.  We weren’t rolling out there with 5 digit bankrolls or even $5k bankrolls.  I mean we were still staying at the Monte with 4 to a room.  So Eric places the bets and then heads out to golf.  While on the golf course, Eric is checking in on the scores and things are not looking good.   And they continue to turn south as he goes 1-9 in the morning games.   He rebounds slightly in the afternoon games, but still ends up 5-14.  He was devastated.  Shocked.  Depressed.  Not only was it about the money, but also about the fact that he had such confidence in his system and picks and it just got flipped upside down and fell for so many traps.  We will always reference that day as Black Friday.

 

And I’m taking this lesson into the 2021 season of the NFL.  Don’t get too cocky and confident and always be aware of the traps.   I don’t know more than Vegas, and when I see a line that looks wrong (there are several this week), I have to realize that this is a trap and bet with the Casino.   

 

 

Cowboys at Bucs (-8.5)  While I wasn’t surprised by the Cowboys covering, I was surprised by the Total.  Thought everyone would come out flat.  And boy did both teams look great.   

 

Cardinals 31 at Titans 28 (-3):  Titans haven’t done much to fix their D. They lost their O coordinator. Henry coming off another huge carry month.  Everyone is against the Cardinals this year, despite improvements on the D.  Really like the Cards in this game.

 

Seattle 21 at Colts 24 (+3):  TRAP!!! This just doesn’t make any sense.  All the negativity coming out on the Colts this preseason.  Yet the line is holding at 3. Vegas is begging you to take the short road favorite.  Seattle’s D is horrible and the Colts D is above average.  Is Wentz playing? Who cares, the colts will just run all over Seattle’s D.  In the past I would of loaded up on Seattle, but this is such a trap.

 

Chargers 14 at Skins 21 (-1):  Why is everyone so high on the Chargers?   Not much is changing for this team, except for a new coach. Everyone is predicting Herbert to make another jump in year 2, but year 2 QBs tend to not make that big of an improvement.  Skins D is elite and the upgrade at QB is huge.   

 

Jags 13 at Texans 14 (+3): TRAP!!!! Am I really going to take a rookie QB and an overwhelmed new head coach on the road?  In years past I would, but this is another trap.  Everyone is calling Houston the worst team of all time.  They still have a competent QB, a slew of veteran RBs, and some solid WRs.  This might be the only chance the Texans will have for a win. 

 

Jets 21 at Panthers 24 (-5):  I really like what I’ve seen with the Jets.  Wilson looks solid, the coach seems to know what he is doing, and they have enough weapons to keep it close.  Yes, this is definitely a revenge game for Donald, who I like, but I also think the Jets are amped up for this one as well. I expect a close game. 

 

Steelers 28 at Bills 24 (-6.5):  Everyone is super high on the Bills.  Everyone has written off the Steelers.  Steelers still have a really good D that can handle the one dimensional Bills offense.  I think Big Ben will be fine and have enough weapons to put up points.   I like the upset here and everyone in Buffalo to panic.

 

Vikings 27 at Bengals 14 (+3):  People are forgetting that the Bengals were covering with Burrows before he got injured.  Want to believe that they can win this game, but I don’t trust their coach and D.  The Vikings D have several key people back on defense and everyone will be healthy on offense.  I like the Vikings to cover easily on the road.

 

Eagles 17 at Falcons 21 (-3):  I like both teams this year. Think this is a lazy line or a trap.  Everyone is predicting the Eagles to finish last in the NFC East.  Some people are predicting the Falcons to be a sleeper team. But yet this is sitting at 3.  I’m staying away from this. If this goes to 3.5 I’ll take the Eagles.   

 

49ers 28 at Lions 14 (+7.5):  Jimmy G is starting while they traded up to get Lance which is confusing me on why everyone loves the 49ers  I hate Goff. Hated him in college and thought that he was so protected under McVay.  Let’s see what happens now with no weapons and a bad coach.  

 

Browns 21 at Chiefs 35(-6): I’m high on both of these teams but what a shitty matchup for the Browns in week one.   KC is pissed after the super bowl loss and will lay it on the Browns.   

 

Broncos 17 at Giants 10 (+3): Superior D’s on both sides.  Bridgewater is such an upgrade over Lock and he’s money on the road.  Giants don’t have an O line.  Think this is an easy cover for the Broncos

 

Packers 27 at Saints 14  (+4):  If this was in NOLA I would of bet the Saints.  But this is in Florida and NO home field advantage is only worth 1.5 points?  Doesn’t make sense to me. 

 

Dolphins 14 at Patriots 16 (-3):  I’m so excited for this game.  Tua vs Jones.  Two top rated D’s.  I do think people are sleeping on the Dolphins. 

 

Bears 7 at Rams 31 (-7.5): I’m big on the Rams this year.  Stafford is such a huge upgrade in QB.  They will let it fly on an over rated Bears D.    

 

Ravens 23  at Raiders 10 (+4.5): I know that this is a TRAP!!! Remember hockey?  It took the casinos 4 months to realize Vegas doesn’t lose at home since all the visiting teams go out and party.  It was such a huge money maker until the visiting teams and the casinos realized how to handle this travel.   Not looking for good for the Ravens.  But Wiz and I put this into our supercontest before realizing this bit of info.  We will see how this plays out, but I’m already chalking this up as a loss.   

 

SuperContest: 0-0

Ravens -4.5

Jets +5

Skins -1

Cardinals +3

GB -4

 

Best Bets:

TB Under (L)

Ravens

Chiefs

Ravens Under

Steelers

Jets

Dolphins

Colts

Broncos

Rams

Cardinals

Cardinals Over

Pats Under