NFL Week 12: Luxor

We had a bad week last week. Our Supercontest picks are 0-9-1 over the last two weeks. (That is probably statistically impossible if we were picking 10 games at random). So - to change our luck, let's review the casino that I seem to always win at over the years.

That's right, the Luxor. Everyone's favorite gimmick casino. It is amazing to walk into the lobby, look up, and see the inside of a pyramid with the hallways facing out. And the light at the top - the most visible item on earth when viewed from space.

But the casino, and my history there, is what stands out. I think I got my first tip from a high roller at the craps table. (I was rolling, some guy was betting blue chips ($1000!) on the BIG RED every roll - and I was ice cold, and kept rolling sevens. He tossed me a $100 chip after a while. I was amazed!) That was in 2003, I think. Then there was Layup's bachelor party, when I had a very good blackjack run to end the trip.

The casino, of course, is nothing spectacular. It is overly-lit, laid out in a weird floor plan (because of the shape of the building, obviously). The dealers are unremarkable, and one entrance to the casino is the people-mover to the Excalibur. And the tram that one has to take to the Mandalay is odd.

But I don't ever recall losing much there. It has a warm place in my heart as a safe haven from the gambling waters. And if ever I need a safe haven, it's this week.

About the Browns - I'm pulling a Ben Crenshaw out here...."Mark my words, I've got a very good feeling about this...."

To the games:

Az 20, StL 10. It's amazing that we actaully lost to this Rams team.

NYJ 27, Buf 10. Are we one week too late on the Bills collapse? Or are the Jets worse than everyone thinks- and this will be a close game?

Hou 23, Jax 10. Schaub is out - so what? The Jags can't score, and the Houston defense is pretty good. How will the Jags score more than 10 points?

Ind 28, Car 24. This is it - the last stand for the Colts. A loss here and it is 0-16.

Ten 24, TB 10. I like what I see in Locker. Tampa's last stand was last week at Lambeau.

Atl 27, Min 17. I have Ryan in the playoffs (already? -ed) in one of my leagues- the 300 yd, 4 TD game just isn't going to come this year.

Oak 20, Chi 17. The Bears defense is still good, and will hold down the Raiders - but I don't have faith in the Bears without Cutler.

Sea 23, Was 10. Last week was an aberration- the Skins always play the Boys tough. Back to reality for Shanahan.

NE 27, Phi 20. I think Belicheck is a better coach (and has better players) than Coughlin, and will gameplan well for Vince Young.

SD 20, Den 14. Staying away from this game. Anything can happen here - a 30 point Charger win, or a 20 point Denver upset.

Pit 24, KC 10. Speaking of teams that can't move the ball - the Chiefs!

NO 28, NYG 27. The Giants are a perfect example of a zig-zag team. Just when you think you can write them off (last week), they will have a big showing.

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 5-9-1; overall: 91-73-8
Az +3
Az/Stl Under 39
NYJ -9.5
Hou -6.5
Ind +3.5
Car/Ind over 46.5
Ten -3
TB/Ten under 43
Sea -3
NE +3.5
Den/SD under 41.5
Pit -10.5
Pit/KC under 40
NYG +7

Supercontest picks:
Az +3
NYJ -8.5
Ten -3
Sea -3.5
NYG +7

NFL Week 11: Binion's

It's getting to that point in the NFL season where I feel like the picking becomes routine and less exciting. Over the first few weeks, the process to put together the picks is pure excitement. Another week! There's only 17 of them! Weeks 6-9 or so become an adrenaline rush, as we think we know some things about teams that Vegas (and others) haven't caught up on.

But now, the rush is gone, the reviews feel like work, and there's not a ton of effort that goes into these picks. It doesn't help that I spent all last week in India, where I didn't have a solid bowel movement for 5 days and we got delayed getting to the plant one day because a oil truck hit a motorcycle and killed two people. There's only one two-lane road to the manufacturing area near Bhopal - and that's an adventourous ride in itself; but then you have to avoid the cows, boars, and elephants on the road.

So there's not a lot of analysis in this week's review. Kind of like going downtown during our Vegas trip. Someone always suggests we do it one of the days - it's usually the third day, where tiredness creeps in. The intent to go downtown is -what? It's not the excitement of gambling; it's not the high stakes - what is it? I find myself not caring too much one way or another when I gamble downtown. So I lose $300 playing craps....that's fine for 4 hours of entertainment at Binions where the players are worse than in central Indiana, and the constant ringing of the drink "clicker" will be in your ears for days. The smoke will too.

It's fun, it's gambling, yes.....but I'm not a big fan of the downtown experience.

Let's get back to fun in the NFL this week. Maybe if we don't botch a snap on a 22 yard field goal to take the lead with 2:00 to go, some of the fun will come back.

Dal 23, Was 10. How, again, will Washington score? (ed- isn't it time for a Romo Pick 6? I think so. )

Min 27, Oak 17. Let's remind ourselves - Oakland is not good; they lost to Denver and Kansas City the two weeks prior. So they beat an imploding Chargers team. And Minnesota ran into a buzzsaw.

Buf 23, Mia 20. Miami's wins recently are against the Skins and the Chiefs. I'm not going to believe in them until they actually beat someone decent.

GB 31, TB 21. Something tells me the Bucs will keep it close.

Det 27, Car 20. You couldn't have two worse showings last week than those from these two teams.

Bal 27, Cin 24. I think the Bengals will stay in this, as the Bal defense is just not good enough to shut down teams like they used to. But I can't see the Ravens losing here.

SF 26, Az 17. The magical ride for the 49ers continues....

StL 23, Sea 10. The Seahawks are a different team away from home. And Jackson is a better runner at home.

SD 31, Chi 24. A purely irrational pick. Cutler can't have 3 great games in a row, can he?

Atl 30, Ten 20. This is the Falcons' season here. They will get up early and pile it on.

Phi 27, NYG 24. The Giants are due for an illogical loss right about now. And the Eagles will find something to pull this out (do I say that every week???)

NE 31, KC 14. Will anyone outside of Boston watch this game?

Best bets: 15 of them. Last week: 10-8-1; overall: 86-64-7
Dal -7
Dal/Was under 41.5
Min -1.5
Buf +3
TB +14
Cin +7
Cin/Bal over 40.5
StL -3
Sea/StL under 39.5
SD +3.5
SD/Chi over 45
Atl -6.5
Ten/Atl over 44
Phi +5.5
Phi/NYG over 45

We will switch it up this week; here are the 5 Supercontest picks.
By the way, I need to calculate the odds of me going 10-8-1......and 5 of the 8 losses were the 5 entries for the Supercontest.....

Min +1
Buf +2
Atl -6
StL -2
SD +3.5

Week 10 Picks

Maybe Felix Gordo will help us....

SD -7
Car -3
Buf +5
Det +2 1/2
Min +13

NFL Week 10: Belterra

It’s going to be a weird Sunday/Monday for me this week. I am flying to India and will be staying overnight in Delhi. I have not yet firmed up any sleeping plans for tonight, so I could be watching the games in a lonely corner of the Delhi airport bumming off the free wireless. Or, I could be in a “sleeping pod” they have at the airport, where overnight travelers can stay in and get a few hours of sleep. But with the arcane airport access rules that Indian airports have, I may be paying $300 for an overpriced hotel room that I will use for 5-6 hours.

So we need to think of a comfort of home this week, and what better comforting memory to have than the Belterra casino between Cincinnati and Louisville. It’s the only casino with UTH in the area, and was the most popular stop for me, Don, Mike, and others for the past 3-4 years. The limits are cheap – they still are! – there usually is a $5 craps table open all the time. The UTH is always $5 as well. The high limit room is expensive - $25 a hand for BJ in the room! Who can afford those stakes?

The clientele? Of course, not the best. That’s the only downside if you can handle it. The UTH table is particularly bad, if I remember correctly. I think I got yelled at for going 4x on A-Q; I know Don had plenty of strange looks with his card and going all in on K-7.

But it’s home, it’s comfortable. It’s like meat loaf. Yeah, it’s not flashy, and there are more elegant casinos in the area, but Belterra makes you feel all warm inside. I don’t ever recall getting killed there – I’ve lost money, sure, but not a complete outing disaster unlike other casinos.
And the Jeff Ruby steakhouse is a plus.

The Browns will hopefully have some meat loaf home cooking this week with the Rams coming to town. I remember Steve inviting me to a home game in 1991 to watch the Rams; I had to back out at the last minute due to some events that I won’t rehash here at this time. 99 was our expansion season, and the Rams were on our schedule; I thought that would be a game we could possibly win, playing on the road and the Rams starting QB, trent Green, went down in week 1!

Of course, that was the Rams’ magical season.

The first Monday night game in Cleveland since 99 was vs. the Rams in 2003; another disappointing loss, and that game spelled the end of the Couch-Holcomb merry go round. However, in 2007, we won in St Louis in the middle of the season as we realized that maybe this Derek Anderson was going to be a good QB……

When are we ever going to get a decent quarterback?????

On to the games:

SD 31, Oak 13. Uh, not so much.

Hou 24, TB 20. Tampa is a good home team, but how are they going to score
here?

Phi 31, Az 10. I have to believe that the Eagles will take out their frustrations on someone. And the Cardinals are terrible – Skelton on the road?

Mia 20, Was 10. Browns vs Redskins, neutral field…..over/under is 15? Who ya got? I am a little surprised that the Dolphins are still playing for Sparano. And I picked up Reggie Bush in one my league –a nice surprise.

Den 21, KC 20. Just a hunch. I continue to believe that Kansas City is no good.

Ind 17, Jax 14. Another rhunch. If there’s ever a game the Colts will win tis year, it has to be this one. How does Jacksonville move the ball?

Dal 30, Buf 28. Another sol crushing loss for the Bills. However, I don’t see the Cowboys stopping Buffalo like the Jets did last week – unless the Ryan borthers compare notes.

Atl 30, NO 24. I think the Saints have proven themselves to be a poor road team, and Atlanta is moving into high gear.

Car 27, Ten 13. Carolina off a bye ? They will figure out how to contain the Titans and score at home.

Pit 27, Cin 23, The Steelers are a trap pick, and I am staying away. But really, I am biased and I just can’t force myself to see the Bwengals winning here.

Bal 23, Sea 20. Seattle is a good home team, and this is a trap game for the Ravens. Steelers last week, and the Bengals next week?

Det 27, Chi 14. A letdown game for the Bears after the big win Monday night. I think the Lions will be ready to go after the bye.

SF 24, NYG 17. A game between two teams that I still don’t think are all that good. However, the Giants are on the road, and I think the 49ers wear them down with Gore.

NE 24, NYJ 20. This should be a great game, and I still have faithin Belicheck and Brady to not lose 3 in a row.

GB 27, Min 20. The Packers’ defense have a lot of holes in it. I think Ponder and the Vikings will score some garbage time points to cover the spread.

Best bets: 19 (!) of them, 0-1 already this week. Last week: 7-9; overall: 76-56-7
SD -7 (loss)
Phi -13.5
Mia -4
Was/Mia under 37
Den +3
Ind +3
Jax/Ind under 37.5
Buf +5.5
Buf/Dal over 48
Car -3.5
Ten/Car under 47
Atl -1
Pit/Cin over 41
Det +2.5
Det/Chi over 43.5
Sea +6.5
SF -3.5
NE +2
Min +13.5

The life of an ex-pat child, part 361

Last week, we dropped off the kids at school - and we noticed that all the teachers were in formal dress - women in dresses, men in suits. The boy scouts arrived ( the middle / high school campus is 30 km away; they are not usually at the elementary school) in their uniform and the American flag.

We learned that the US Ambassador to China visited the school that day to help celebrate the 30th anniversary of the school. The ambassador talked to the kids in an assembly that day.

We talked about this over dinner - we got out the internet and showed the boys this picture.

Do you know who is in the picture?

"Yes - that's Gary Locke! He is the ambassador from the US that came to the school today!"

And who is the other person in the picture?

"I don't know....he hasn't come to the school yet."

Hungry?

Are  you hungry?
Can I interest you in a hot dog with lettuce - for breakfast?

What about this as an afternoon snack?

I owe this blog a lot of posts

Yes, yes, yes, I am way behind in regular posts of updates of our life in China. I've got about 6 posts all lined up and ready to go - I just need the time to go ahead and type them up.

While you wait, please enjoy some more Dancing on the Square videos by our apartment. As usual, this is taken on the public square right by our apartment (with the Pearl River in the background).

I love the fact that the leader is counting in English.

Week 9 Picks

NO -8
Dal -11.5
NE -8.5
Pit -3
Chi +8

NFL Week 9: Monte Carlo

The Browns head to Houston this week to play the favored Texans. If maybe, somehow, the Browns can get out of there with a win - they would be 4-4 at the halfway mark of the season. Yes, it is unlikely, but it is possible. There is a very small chance - like hitting a 6 way parlay or a $100 hard 8 - but stilla chance.

It reminds me of the old days at the Monte Carlo. It would be Saturday afternoon - we had a bad, but not horrid, Friday night - and you are within sight of break even (.500). Just one good run is needed! One big parlay, one nice craps run, or one good shoe at blackjack....

...but it never comes. You sink deeper and deeper, and by the end of the day,you're just trying to hang on for dear life. I have a feeling, at 3-5, the Browns will be hanging on for life after Sunday.

What to say about the Monte Carlo? It's the scene of my first serious gambling multi-day trips (starting in 03). So many good memories, good and bad....and none of them invovled being "up" for a long period of time. I always felt that I was chasing losses....from Black Friday to the International Craps scene, and yes - of course - banking Pai Gow against my friends. But even though it's the scene of so many losses, there are some many good memories that it's impossible to frown when thinking of this place.

On to the games:

Atl 23, Ind 13: Where is Indy's mind? I have to think that Atlanta realizes they can't afford to slip up here, especially after a bye.

NO 31, TB 16: The Saints have to be pissed after the loss to the Rams. They will be hungry for revenge at home.

Buf 27, NYJ 20: The home field advantage for the Bills is worth 3 points alone. I think they will be able to score when needed, unlike the Jets.

Mia 20, KC 17. A total gut feel game. KC is not that good, and will suffer from a letdown after the Mon night gift.

SF 23, Was 20. When is the run going to end for the 49ers? Are they really going to go 4-0 on the east coast? (It's against the Skins, so yes)

Dal 27, Sea 13. Does anyone know who the Seahawks QB is? Rob Ryan and the Cowboys are out to prove something.

Oak 20, Den 10. We all know how bad Den's offense is. What about the Raiders? They scored 10 vs. the Browns and 0 vs. the Chiefs. Who says the will run all over the Broncos?

Ten 27, Cin 17. The Bengals, a 5 game winning streak? Please God, no.

Az 31, StL 17. One win vs. the Saints and we think the Rams are off the bottom 3? No. Rams are still in the bottom 3 of the league. They should not be favored on the road (until next week......)

NE 34, NYG 20. Going with the anger theme again - the Pats will take care of business after the loss to the Steelers.

GB 31, SD 24. I will not hazard a guess on where the Chargers' minds are at.

Pit 27, Bal 17. There's no way the Steelers will let themselves get swept by Flacco - at home. No way.

Phi 31, Chi 27. After a bye, the Bears will keep this close. I don't think we can be confident in the Eagles just yet.

Best bets: 16 of them. Last week: 8-6. Overall: 69-47-7.

Atl -6.5
Atl/Ind under 45
NO -8.5
Buf -2.5
Mia +4
SF/Was over 37
Dal -11.5
Ten -2.5
Oak -7
Den/Oak under 42
Az -3
StL/Az over 41
NE -9
Pit -3
Chi +8
Chi/Phi over 47