Vegas 2016 Prep

Well hello out there! Today is the 5th anniversary of Janice and I's engagement....it was a cold and dreary February day in 1996 when I got down on my knee on the Kentucky side of the Ohio River. It doesn't get much more romantic than that.

To celebrate, we (just the two of us) had a wonderful brunch at the Omni hotel downtown. Randomly bumped into another couple we knew and the four of us spent 2 1/2 hours pigging out.  Nothing like a 4,000 calorie meal at 11 am. What came after dessert? Another helping of Prime Rib! I'm still stuffed now and I haven't eaten anything since that meal. (Maybe that explain why I didn't sleep well and am up at this hour? )

That buffet certainly got my stomach ready for the Vegas trip, now just 9 days away. Need to get my game plan/strategy in order as well for the trip. Some notes to ponder as we get closer to the start:

- Loved Layup's previous post about this innermost feelings for the trip. I, too, am a little nervous about bankroll. We've got a lot of things going on this year - Spring Break trip, the golf trip to Ireland, and other things - and of course a bad college basketball season. It all adds up - quickly. And I don't have the ex-pat salary cushion anymore. ( I know, cry me a river...)

- Instead of setting loss limits on game, I like to make sure I know what I will take into a session for each game and my initial betting strategy. This, of course, will change on conditions such as time of day, alcohol intake, and general moods. But here is my initial plan for each game:

1. Craps - the hardest to figure out. Assuming a $15 table, we have:
   - pass line with double odds ($45)
   - 6 and 8 for $18 each ($36)
   - a $5 lotto ticket on the all small
   - hard 4/10 when the point is 4 / 10 (I know, awful...)

That's $86 per roller; if the point is 6 or 8, I may do a come bet instead of a 2nd place bet; this will get us to about $100 per roller..... ugh.

I think we need 7-8x the roller outlay as a bankroll, so we are talking $750 for a $15 table.

I'm looking forward to craps at the Mirage - I hate playing craps down here at the Horseshoe; I don't think I have ever come close to winning money. The thrill of the all small and a parlayed hardway just can't be beat.

What do I do at a $25 table?
  - pass line with double odds ($75)
  - 6 and 8 for $30 each ($60)
  - $5 all small
that's $140; 7x$140 = $980 so $1000 for those sessions.

By the way, we are flying through the craps curriculum here at the house with the two older boys. Freddie and Warren are now on the Craps 302 course, covering advanced topics such as:

 - What does 3-4-5 odds mean and how can you get more money on the table if you are limited by the odds
 -  What are the proper don't pass odds
 - What does "off and on" mean
 - How to ignore your dad when he is hustling for tips at the table.

It's fascinating to watch their strategies. Freddie, who is very conservative with his money, will always press his 6 and 8, while Warren - who bets $100 fields regularly - will always say "same bet" with his place bets.

2. UTH: Not much to say here. I think my baseline of 40x the ante bet is good for a session. So $600 for a conservative $15 game, $1000 for a $25 games. This has worked in the past; you can run out quickly if you get killed, but for the most part, it's ok. That's 6-7 "4x" loss hands.

3. Blackjack: Ugh. I'd like to play more blackjack on the main floor this trip - $25/$50 tables. I'm comfortable with 20x the minimum bet here. $500 for $25, $1000 for $50. Really don't want to go higher than that...... (I'll just stop here).

4. Baccarat. Double ugh. I do love this game, but this is getting expensive. (I went through my records - holy crap, what happened in 2014????? How did I lose that much money in baccarat? need to read the blog). 8-10x minimum bet is usually good, but that can get wiped out in 2 minutes with bad cards. Can we stay away ? (no...... I'll drag Mike A into this and blame him)

5. Pai Gow - this is the opposite of Craps for me at the Horseshoe. I usually have good luck at the Horseshoe with Pai Gow - mainly because I actually stay at the table when playing (how's that for an idea, Layup?) - but can't catch any cards at the Mirage, especially against John. I won't play with him at night - just too painful - but in the morning or for a break in the afternoon, yes, I'm sure I will play. I'm thinking 8-10x bet is a good enough bankroll here. So for $50 hands, $400 is fine.

6. Sports betting. I need to REALLY re-evaluate what I am doing here. This on-line account has been problematic. For the Vegas trip, it's all fun and games if you go to the window during the week and bet 87 games *.....you go 40-47 and incur a small loss, and it's a lot of fun.

However, you do that 5-6 days a week (taking off on Friday), and it really wears you down. I can't get out of the "smorgasbord" attitude I have - oooooh look, there's a 1 pm OVC game today! - and just focus. I need to just pick the 3-5 games a day (or, 3-5 in afternoon and 3-5 in evening) and shoot for those. No more picking 20 games a day.

(* - that is a slight exaggeration, but only by a little. I'm sure there have been trips where I placed over 50 wagers across 4 days).

Planning to play golf 3 of the 5 days will be good - will allow me to get out of the casino for a bit and then focus on the sessions later that day ( or early, before golf). I don't think it's healthy to spend 24 hours in the casino each and every day (which is what we did last year).

I know a lot of these plans will be thrown out the window once the drinks start flowing and the all smalls start hitting - but I firmly believe you need to have a base strategy to start with and then adjust on the fly.

(Oh - drinks - I think I need to add to my drink choices, esp at UTH. What the hell should I drink while at a 4 hour UTH session? Rum and cokes? Vodka Lemonades? Tom Collins can only take you so far....)

Vegas March 2016

With two weeks left until our 19^th annual trip to Vegas, I’m starting to get a little nervous.  The usual excitement that I have for the Vegas trip has been replaced by guilt and stress.  The guilt comes from my upcoming travel schedule.  I head to Vegas on Mar 8^th and I don’t get back home until Mar 26^th.  I have to fly out from Vegas on Sunday to Thailand, Malaysia, and Japan for two weeks for work, so I’ll be away from the family for 3 weeks.   For the first time ever, Carol mentioned that maybe I should head back from Vegas on Friday so that I can spend one day with the kids before heading out.   Yeah, I’m not prepared to do that just yet. So I’ll be flying out of Vegas at 7:00am to LAX, so catch my connection to Bangkok at 10:50am.  Nothing like a 20+ hour flight right after Vegas.

The stress comes from the bankroll.   College Basketball has been a disaster in Nov-Dec causing my Vegas bankroll to go down a significant amount.   I have rebounded in Jan-Feb, but not even close enough to make back any money.  Couple that with a 50/50 chance of me losing my job since AIG is a disaster, my annual bonus still up in the air, the market kicking me in the ass, and my last big trip to Vegas last July, where I got absolutely destroyed, my confidence level is at a new low and my stress level is at a new high.  If I start out ice cold on Tuesday evening in Vegas, I know I could become gun shy which is never fun or a good thing when it comes to gambling.    

Last year, I had the great success for the trip.  I played responsible for the most part and adhered to my strategy, and came back up for the trip.  Trying to read my notes from last year and while I had some very weak moments, I was able to minimize my losses and take profits when I was hot.   A couple of initial thoughts about what I need to continue to focus on for this trip:

·         Loss Limits-  This is more like a bankroll for a session.  I feel comfortable on what I take to the table now for a bankroll. 

o   Craps-  $1500 at a $15 table limit and $2000 for a $25 table limit

o   UTH- $1500 for a $25 table limit

o   Roulette- Don’t really play this anymore, but just in case it will be $300. 

o   Black Jack-Salon- This is really the only one I struggle with.  I really don’t like taking $2000 for the session.  Don’t know why, but this is the right amount. 

o   Baccarat- $1000-  Its not the loss limit that is the problem here.  Its my pressing and betting strategy.  Need to read up on this before going back out.

o   Pai Gow- $500-  I really hate playing this game now.  Maybe it’s because I have ZERO strategy on pressing or how to make money.  Or maybe I just hate the game now.  I won’t play this game by myself, and its only fun if we have a full table and we tend to be drunk.  Other than that, I feel like I’m on a time out whenever I play this.

·         Win Limits-  Wiz sort of drilled this into me two years ago and it really helps out to take profits when you get hot.   A pre-defined win limit just like a loss limit before you sit down at the table.  And you have to be prepared to pick up the instant you hit that win limit and not dick around.  I remember Wiz did this to me for the first time in the middle of the shoe in the Salon two years ago.   I was upset at first, but I now understand how important it is to pick up the instant you hit this limit.   For example, in July, Wiz and I sat down in the Salon for some afternoon BJ.   I set a win limit of $2k.  In the middle of the FIRST shoe, I hit my win limit.  I must of won the first 10-15 hands and I was pressing.   I decided that I would wait until the end of the FIRST shoe and if I was up $2k I would pick up.  Well guess what happened.   The second half of the shoe got cold and I was only up $1,500.  I decided that I would stay since I wasn’t at my win limit anymore.   3 markers later, I picked up down a ton and just sooo upset at what happened.  While this is an extreme example, I can’t tell you how many times this has happened to me at Craps.   Win Limits have really helped me get away from the table with money and reset.   Other than the July incident, I have followed this frequently and has helped out tremendously on taking profits.

o   Craps- I think this is probably where Win Limits come into play the most.  I’m up a decent amount of money after a solid roll and I stay at the table to either roll or say that I’m going to leave after the next roll, or something like that.  Next thing you know you have given back some of the profits or all of the profits which leads to staying at the table longer.  I’ve set my win limits to $2k-$3k depending on the time and who I’m playing with.   If I hit my win limit in the middle of a roll, I will limit what additional money I put on the table. 

o   UTH- depending on the time and who I’m playing with it will be $2k-$4k.  

o   Salon- this is really tough and need to hammer out before I sit down.  I have gone on huge runs in the salon to where I’ve won $5k-$6k multiple times. So the x1 or x1.5 my bankroll wouldn’t of allowed me to go on some of those runs.  

o   Baccarat- No clue on this.   Just like the salon, I have gone on massive runs in the $5k-$6k arena on several different occasions.   Not too sure how important this is, since I don’t tend to bleed back profits in this game.   Since I’m not a huge fan of the game, I have no problem picking up after a hot run.  Might just set it at $5K. 

o   Roulette/Pai Gow-  Ugh.  Whatever.  If I’m playing these games, its on such an infrequent basis and with small amounts, so I haven’t even thought about it.   I will say that its to double my bankroll in a session. 

·         Sports gambling-  A couple of key things that worked for me last year:

o   Don’t be afraid to max out on games I love!  Can’t just bet the same amount on the games I love and games I have a small lean on.  

o   For games I have a small lean on but still want to wager, I need to knock my amount down by 75%.   This allows me to still have action on that game, but won’t eat into my bankroll in a large way.

o   2^nd half wagering- Continue to either make double up or hedge out of overall wagering based on 2^nd half lines. I can’t be afraid to hedge out, pay the juice and wait for the next game.  I don’t do a lot of this, but need to be OK with admitting I made the wrong decision and I now have an opportunity to get out of it.

o   Moneyline wagering on favorites-   Continue with this strategy. It seems to be working.

o   Limit Moneyline parlays-  I tend to do 2 or 3 team ML parlays since I don’t like to lay so much money on the favorite.  These tend not to work out, so I need to stay away from this.

·         Drinking-  So I’m trying not to drink so much beer over the past 3-4 years.   So at home I tend to drink Vodka or Scotch.  This works out well at home since I have a couple of drinks and I can call it a night.  But in Vegas, where I might be drinking for 8-10 hours, vodka is a bad bad bad choice and beer would be better suited.  Need to figure out what will be my go to drink.  Vodka lemonades have not treated me well in Vegas.   

I'm hoping to get some more posts over the next two weeks.  If you want to waste 4 hours of your day, go back and read the 10 years of Vegas posts.  They are classic.