The latest CNN polls are out for the Senate. It's just one poll, but it shows that:
- Allen is now losing in VA
- Corker is now up 5-7 in TN
- The MO race is a toss up.
It did not poll the MD race, where all polls show that Steele is closing. (and if you believe that Washington post poll with those internals, then you probably listen to Stuart Scott for your sports info, too...)
Laura - tell you what. I'll be OK with Allen going down in VA if Corker beats the vastly overrated Ford in TN and Steele beats the "Weekend at Bernie's" candidate, Ben Cardin. Deal?
4 comments:
D/E,
When are you two converging on San Diego? I'm here through Friday for work.
I live right up the road and youy don't call???? VA snob
It was last minute, I went to some place called JSIX tonight for dinner. I get SO tired of slutty Halloween tramps parading around.
First of all, Janice and I are coming into SD on Friday night (8:30 ish). Sounds like we will miss you, Ryan.
Now, to Laura's analysis. Wow - very good breakdown of the three voting groups in MD> I'm anal enough to check the breakdown of the R/I/D #'s you provide- and they are dead on. Nice work.
Some thoughts:
- I think you overestimate the amount of Baltimore suburbians voting for O'Malley, esp. Republicans. Isn't there a hatred between the Baltimore suburbs and the city? And, given Ehrlich's good performance, I can't see less than a 90% R vote for Ehrlich.
- Steele and the race factor, with Reps: A very good point, espeically in Western MD and the eastern shore. This is the X factor that exists and absolutely NO ONE will dare talk about.
Don't apologize for the generalization - that's the foundation of political science! Mass generalizations!
- Independents: I'd agree with the anti-incumbent mood, but only on the federal level. I believe these people are more interested in divided governemnt for the checks and balances. So I think the Ehrlich-Cardin vote here would be bigger than you think.
- Democrats: I've heard and read (I'll get a link later) that if Steele can get 30-33% of the black vote, then he is a lock. The black vote does dominiate D politics in MD, NOT JUST in Balto City but in PG and Montgomery county, too.
I'm reading the recap of the 02 Governor's race - Ehrlich got 24% in Balto City - which was an uptick for R's! (Ehrlich carried the Balto Suburbs by 63-37). If Steele can get to 30% in Balto City, then I think that margin will more than compensate the "Ehrlich/Cardin" independent factor I talked about above.
Another question that popped into my mind - will Ehrlich's 24% in the City be significantly lower since OMalley is the candidate? We will see.
I see a poll has been published (Baltimore Sun!) that OMalley only leads Ehrlich by 1. This makes a whole lot more sense than some of the other polls that show OMalley by 5-7.
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