2006 Election Preview: The House

This is the last post in the 2006 Election Preview series. I won't be around the computer much up until Election day - going to San Diego to see Derek and the Browns this weekend! - so here is a quick preview of the House and the key races.

By the way, we hope to be liveblogging from the basement on Election Night. Stay tuned for that.

The math seems simple - the Democrats need to pick up 15 seats to win control of the House. By most counts, there are about 8-10 seats that are Rep now that look like they will go Democratic; there are about 20-30 Republican tossup seats that could go either way; and an additional 20-40 Republican seats that is leaning Republican now, but could change if a huge wave is coming.

Conversely, the Democrats have very little to worry about in terms of defending their seats. At worst, they have 10 seats that could be seen as in play, and it wouldn't shock me if they kept all 10.

So - the toss-up seats will determine control of the house, and if they broke 50/50, the Democrats would take control by about 5-10 seats. However, history shows that in exceptional years (think 1992, 1994, and 2002) most of the toss ups go one way. So - with that in mind - will the anti-Bush wave sweep those Republican tossups out? Or will the fear of Pelosi coupled with the superior Get-Out-The-Vote ground effort that the Republicans have fool the pollsters once again?

Here are the key states that need to be watched:

1) Connecticut (Districts 2,4,5). There are 3 vulnerable R reps here - all are veteran reps (Chris Shays, Nancy Johnson are two) who are relatively liberal and have withstood challenges before in this state. It is thought that the Lieberman independent candidacy will bring out more R-leaning independents to vote for Lieberman and, in turn, vote for the moderate R congresspeople.
Best case for the Democrats: they could win all 3; if they get 2, that is a huge step forward for 15.
For the Republicans: They could win all 3. If they lose more than 1, it's not good.

2) Florida. (Dist. 13, 16,22). District 13 is Foley's seat; the Rep's won a court battle that allowed signs to be put up at polling places stating that a vote for Foley (who is still on the ballot) is a vote for his replacement. Two more districts (both R) are at risk, one is Katherine Harris' old seat (16).
Best case for D: Win 2 - Foley's and one more.
Best case for R: Most have written off Foley's seat, and it is possible that they can come back and win it; but no one is couting on it. Win 2 here and the R's are OK.

3) Georgia: (Dist 8, 12). This is a big one for the Democrats; these seats are held by 2 Democratic freshman congressmen facing R challengers who once held the seat.
Best case for D: Win both.
Best case for R: If they can pick off 1 here, that's a victory.

4) Indiana (Dist 2, 8, 9). This is one of the ground zeroes right now for the house. (This, OH and PA). Dist 8 is Western IN (Terre Haute, Evansville) in which the incumbent has consistently run campaigns with no money (he refuses to take political committee money) but somehow wins every year since 94. His death has been predicted more than once. In dist 2 (South Bend), we have a 2 term R congressman fighting for his life against a tough challenger. Dist 9 (Bloomington, SE Indiana - think Argosy and Grand Victoria, Derek) has a freshman who beat an incumbent in 04; the D incumbent is back for a rematch.
Best case for D: They could take all three, but 2 is fine with them.
Best case for R: They've already written dist 8 off. If they win 2 and 9, it's a victory.

5) Kentucky(Dist 2, 3,4). Two R-leaning districts (#2, and #3) and a tossup. District 3 is Carol's parents' district in Louisville; Anne Northrup is the R incumbent who was elected in 1998. Every single year, the D's target this district and every year the national media picks her seat to say "watch this...if she loses, the D's are in for a big night". She hasn't lost yet. She may this year. District 4 is the south side of Cincinnati; there are commercials for these two non-stop on my TV. The Republican is a freshman who won an open seat in 04; the Democrat was the rep who served here from 98-04, but resigned keeping his term limit promise. One can debate whether that was noble or gullible. So he's back.
Best case for D: They're hoping for one.
Best case for R: If they don't win all 3, I think this is a sure sign that the house will go D.

6) New York: (Dist. 20, 24, 25, 26,29) - all upstate R districts. I know nothing about any of these except for #24- Tom Reynolds is the R rep who is part of the leadership team and he is getting major heat for the Foley scandal.
Best case for D: If they get 3 out of these 5, we're looking at a 30-40 seat wave.
Best case for R: I think they've written off #24. If they get the other 4, they can still keep the house.

7) Ohio: (Dist 1, 2, 15, 18). Boy, I have a lot of connections to eachof these districts.
Dist 18 - home of the Apple Valley golf tournament in Mt Vernon... this was Bob Ney's old seat; Ney was in the R leadership but was indicted for his dealings in the Abramoff scandal and resigned. Two lackluster candidates here.
Dist 15 - (Columbus, Marysville, home of my in-laws); solid R district but the rep, Deb Price, is on the leadership and she is getting hounded at home for Iraq. I haven't seen much polling here, but many say it is a tossup.
Dist 1 - West Cincinnati, Jeff W (brother-in-law)'s home - This is a typical 50/50 R/D district with an R rep since 94; the rep's connections to Bush are hurting him. The D candidate has shown nothing but negative ads against the incumbent. Ads are flying for this on Cinci TV.
and finally
Dist 2 - East Cincinnati - Don's home. A 65-70% R district with possibly the dumbest congressperson out there, Jean Schmidt. Elected last year in a special election, she's the one who called Jack Murtha a coward on the floor. Don hates her, with good reason. The D challenger is a complete unknown and I haven't seen any commercials for her. I did see a couple of ads against her, though. Leaning Republican - however, if Schmidt loses, I think Don will ship a bottle of wine from his collection to every reader of this blog in celebration.
Best case for D: They'd drink Don's win for a week if they can get 3.
Best case for R: Losing 1 (the Ney seat) is expected, although it's possible they can win it. They have to win at least 3, though, to have a shot at the house.

8) PA (Dist 6, 7, 8,10): These are all Philly suburbs. Apparently, one of the R incumbents cheated on his wife (Dist 10); another had FBI agents raid his daughter's house for tax evasion (Dist 8). The other 2 are suburbian districts with concerns about the war.
Best case for D: 2 are expected; 3 would be cherries on the sundae.
Best case for R: If the losses are limited to one of these four, they would be ecstatic.

Now, if things are still close, two more districts will decide the house:

9) New Mexico #1 (Alburquerque) - Heather Wilson (R) is the twin of Anne Northrup (from KY #3, above); every year she is in a tight race and the media calls it a "bellweather" race; she has won every year since 98. Again, if she survives this time, it would be a good sign for the R's.

10) Finally, we have North Carolina #11 (Asheville, W Carolina). The Republican incumbent is a rugged guy but has been dogged by some corruption allegations; the Democrats have recruited an alledgedly seriosu candidate....

Heath Shuler.

The fate of the House of Representatives of the world's superpower could fall on the shoulders of Heath Shuler.