2006 Governor's Races Preview

Before we go onto the least interesting section of the 2006 election, we have a news flash from Maryland.

The NAACP held a debate tonight for the Senate candidates. There was a no-show.

It was Ben Cardin. Rep. Cardin did not show up for the event.

I am starting to have a feeling that Steele may win in MD after all.

Anyway, onto the Governor's races. Currently, Rep's hold 28 offices, Dem's hold 22. 36 state offices are up this year; of the 14 that are not, 6 are held by R's and 8 by D's.

It is certain that the Dem's will pick up a few, but there are a lot of toss-up races out there.

In order for the R's to retain the majority of the governorships (25 or 26), they've got to win a lot of the tossups. Here is the rundown of the Governor's races and how they could get to 26:

Solid Republican:
7. CT: Jodi Rell (R) vs John DeStefano - Rell a solid 20+ lead and very popular.
8. HI: Linda Lingle (R) vs Randy Iwase
9. NE: David Heineman (R) vs David Hahn
10. SD: Mike Rounds (R) vs. Jack Billion. Nice name.

Likely Republican:
11. TX: Rick Perry (R) is an incumbent that is garnering 35% of the vote, and is likely to win in a landslide. How? A wild 4 way race in Texas. Perry is facing off against:
- the Democratic nominee, Chris Bell
- a singer named Kinky, Kinky Friedman
- and a self-proclaimed "Grandma" candidate, Carole Strayhorn
Unbelievably, the last two candidates are independents and getting 10-20% of the vote each! It is conceivable that the Democratic nominee can finish 4th in this race.
12. SC: Mark Sanford (R) vs Tommy Moore
13. AL: Bob Riley (R) vs Lucy Baxley
14. VT: Jim Douglas (R) vs Scudder Parker. Amazing that this state - home of Ben N Jerry's - has a REpublican governor who is popular.

Leaning Republican:
15. ID: Butch Otter (R) vs Jerry Brady. Watch this race - this is an open seat and Brady is closing fast. Another Western Democrat that could win and make headlines.
16. CA: Arnold Schwartzenegger (R) vs Phil Angelides. Amazing that the Democrats in CA can't run a better campaign or put up a better candidate. Arnold is cruising to victory.
17. GA: Sonny Perdue (R) vs Mark Taylor
18. AK: Sarah Palin (R) vs Tony Knowles. Knowles is a old two-time Governor trying to win his job back against newcomer Palin.
19. FL: Charlie Crist (R) vs Jim Davis. Open seat here, as Jeb Bush is not running. Polls show this race tightening; another to watch.

Toss-ups - 8 of them!
20. RI: Donald Carcieri (R) vs Charles Fogarty. Carcieri is the incumbent; will he drag Chafee with him over the finish line or will the anti-Bush vote drown out both Chafee and Carcieri?
21. MN: Tim Pawlenty (R) vs. Mike Hatch. Eerily similar to the MD Governor's race; a somewhat popular incumbent running against the tide in the worst possible year for republicans.
22. NV: Jim Gibbons (R) vs Dina Titus. Not sure why this is a tossup by some; Gibbons is up 5-8 in most polls.
23. MD: Bob Ehrlich (R) vs Martin O'Malley. I still believe that a governor with an approval rating of 48% (in the last poll I saw) will win. For perspective, Arnold has a approval rating of 43% - and he is cruising.
24. WI: Mark Green(R) vs Jim Doyle. The first of a few Democratic incumbents in trouble. This will go downto the wire.
25. IA: Jim Nussle (R) vs Chet Culver. Two strong candidates running for an open seat in a state that is dead purple. Just what you'd expect.
26. MI: Dick DeVos (R) vs Jennifer Granholm. Another Democratic incumbent in some trouble, given the depression that Michigan is in.
27. OR: Ron Saxton (R) vs. Ted Kulogonski. The Democratic incumbent seemed to be in a battle, but looks like he may hang on by 3-5 points.

That's about it. I can't see the Republicans getting any more than 27 governorships. Most experts are putting them at 22-24. That seems about right.

For the Democrats:
Leaning Democrat:
28. AR: Mike Beebe (D) vs Asa Hutchison. Beebe is up in all polls by about 8-10.
29. CO: Bill Ritter (D) vs Bob Beauprez. Not much here.
30. IL: Rod Blagojevich (D) vs Judy Barr Topinka. Blagojevich is VERY unpopular and has some hint of corruption swirling around him (see, he is from Chicago), but the Illinois R party is so weak....
(how weak is it?)
It is so weak that Alan Keyes was their Senate candidate 2 years ago - and got 22 %.
Any other year, Rod would be vulnerable - it's not going to happen here.
31. ME: John Baldacci (D) vs Chandler Woodcock. I'm a good Republican and all, but even I would have a hard time pulling a lever and voting for a person named Chandler Woodcock.

Likely Dem:
32. MA: Deval Patrick (D) vs Kerry Healey
33. PA: Ed Rendell (D) vs Lynn Swann. In the annals of Politics, they may write a chapter on the worst run campaigns. Number 1 would be George Allen's campaign in Virginia this year; Swann's would be #2. He made misstep after mistake in the summer and early fall and fell behind big time early on. He has not made it up.
34. OH: Ted Strickland (D) vs Ken Blackwell.
Let me tell you about Ohio. The current Governor (Bob Taft) was indicted for ethics violations in 2004 or so. Instead of resigning, he fought (and lost) but is still in office. His approval rating is 15%. Taft personally has overseen the demise of the Republican party in Ohio. Because of him, they will lose the governorship (duh), a good senator in Dewine, and possible 2-4 House seats.
Strickland is a great candidate - he is from rural Southeastern Ohio, not a liberal union Northeast Ohio stalwart - and comes off as having conservative values. Blackwell, down 20 in the polls now, has thrown the gay card out by pretty much insinuating that Strickland is gay - even though Strickland is married with 2 kids. Just terrible.
By the way, yours truly never voted for Bob Taft. In 1998, I voted for the Democrat, Tim Hagan, who led the sin tax effort up in Cleveland to get Jacobs Field built. In 2002, I voted for the Libertarian candidate (and even had a sign in my yard for him).

See- I can spot a rat.

Safe Democrat:
35. NY: Eliot Spitzer (D) vs John Faso. It's hard to believe that it has been 12 years since Mario Cuomo was the last D to be governor of NY.
36. AZ: Janet Napolitano (D) vs Len Munsil
37. KS: Kathleen Sebelius (D) vs Jim Barnett
38. NH: John Lynch (D) vs Jim Coburn
39. NM: Bill Richardson (D) vs John Dendahl
40. OK: Brad Henry (D) vs Ernest Istook
41. TN: Phil Bredesen (D) vs Jim Bryson
42: WY: Dave Freudenthal (D) vs Ray Hunkins

It is amazing to see how many D's are governors of Red states (KS, WY, TN, OK), and in turn, how many Republicans are governors of Blue states (VT, RI, MD, CT, CA).