I usually get excited about baseball a month before the season starts, but not this year. Maybe because it is obvious that the A's are rebuilding this year to get ready for the opening of their new stadium in two years. Or maybe its because of the NBA and college basketball. Anyway, Opening Day is here and I'm excited again for baseball. Below are just a few predictions on the season.
AL East: I'm not buying into the Toronto and Rays uprising in this division. Rays will be improved, and Toronto will be a .500 ball club, but they won't compete against the Sox and Yanks. Looking at the Yanks, I'm worried about their starters. Who will be starting again? Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, and Mussina? Even if Hughes and Kennedy pan out, can Pettitte and Mussina make it the entire way? But all they need to do is go 6 innings, then turn it over to their bullpen. And the Sox? Well Beckett and Schilling are injured, but Colon is pitching well which should lessen the impact. With Manny in a contract year I think he will put up crazy numbers, which will keep them afloat. Prediction: Red Sox
AL Central: Still kicking myself for not placing the Tigers under bet. No bullpen, Willis sucks, and Rogers is done. But that offense is very scary. I don't think that they have enough to compete with the Indians or the White Sox. Yes, the White Sox. They need some breaks with their starters, but their offense is solid and their bullpen is good enough to compete for the Central Title. With that being said, I'm still going to go with the Indians. Haffner has to bounce back right? Cabrera is very interesting, and we should continue to see improvements in both Siezmore and Garko. And then there are the Royals. Offense is improving. Starters are improving. But the bullpen is a mess. Good luck. Prediction: Baring any injuries, I'm going with the Indians.
AL West: For the first time in 9 years, I'm not even going to mention the A's as a title contender. What I am looking forward to with the A's though is a solid year from Street and Harden with the expectation that we unload them to the Yanks or Sox near the trading deadline. This is another good young team that should be spoilers during the stretch run. I'm expecting a .500 season, and anything less would be a huge disappointment. So its really down to the Angels and Mariners. With Sling Blade (Lackey) and Escobar injured, and Colon (Shrek) gone, their pitching is really thin. Almost to the point that it gives me some hope for the A's. They also overpaid for Hunter, which now makes them too deep in the outfield. Garrett Anderson, Rivera, Matthews Jr, Vlad, and Hunter all will need time. And one of their best top of the lineup guys Willits, is on the bench. Scioscia is so over-rated and will cost them too many games. This leaves the door open for the Mariners. If they can't win it this year, then I don't know when they will be able to do it. Even with the addition of Bedard their rotation is still shakey. Their offense is dependent on Ibanez and Beltre continued production and a bounce back from Sexton. Looking at all the holes on all the teams, it is very easy to see a four team race, with all teams right around .500. Prediction: Mariners by default.
Wild Card: White Sox. Don't sleep on this team. If they catch a break with Danks and Floyd, they will be a contender with a solid offense and a strong bullpen.
Red Sox over White Sox
Indians over Mariners
Indians over Red Sox for the AL Pennant.
NL East: If the Mets can't pull this thing out this year, then they should fire Randolph and company and start over. With Pedro, Santana, and company they should cruise to a division title. Marlins are terrible. The Nationals are right there as well. But an interesting fact about their old ballpark, RFK. There were only two opposite field homeruns last year for right handers. Isn't that crazy. What a terrible ballpark!! The new one looks really nice and should help them a little. And why was Gammons so amazed that locker rooms had IPod chargers and WiFi? Not a big deal. Calm down. Prediction: Mets
NL Central: This is what we call crap soup. All these teams have larger than normal holes. Picking the Cubs for me is like betting Black in Roulette. Always seems like a great idea but looking back after 6 reds in a row and $800 later, I always say "What the hell was I thinking!!!" So no Cubs. Astros look interesting, but they lack starting pitching depth. Brewers could have 5 guys blow double digit saves with Turnbow, Gagne, Soloman Torres, Riske, and Mota. This is a disaster waiting to happen. Pirates are just sad. So that leaves me with the Cardinals and Reds. Come on, I hate the Cardinals. Cardinals have no starters, but a decent pen. Am I really going to make a prediction based on the fact that I expect big things from Ankiel? Can't do it. So I'm going with the Reds. Look, they have a great 1-2 punch with a solid number 3. They have a solid pen now that they don't have to depend on David Weathers to close out games. They have great defense up the middle since they finally moved Griffey out of center. They win by default. Prediction: Reds
NL West: This is going to be exciting. Dodgers are loaded with young offensive talent and great pitching. Same could be said of the Diamondbacks. But remember that the Diamondbacks were a statistical anomaly last year, and I don't think that they win as many games, despite adding some strong pitching. Padres are always tough, but they just don't have enough to stick with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks. Rockies and San Fran will tail off and won't stay with the top two. Prediction: Dodgers
Wild Card: Braves
Dodgers over Braves
Mets over Reds
Mets over Dodgers for the NL Pennant
Mets over Indians for the Series
2 comments:
Before everyone starts sucking the Indians popsicles, someone might want to tell C.C. that the playoffs are over - you can start pitching well again.
I actually have some concerns over the Red Sox. I know they have a lot of talent, but with Schilling out they are REALLY counting on Buchholz and Lester to hold up and give them innings. Both were lousy this spring. If those two crap the bed (not totally unrealistic) and Schilling can't come back (also a very strong possibility) then they have Beckett, Wakefield and DiceK. I don't think that is enough.
Now they still have a potent lineup (Manny will have a monster season after a subpar year), but that pitching seems thinner than a lot of the "experts" are suggesting. Wakefield was shut down with back and shoulder issues, and DiceK tailed off in the 2nd half. They are going to need him to pitch like a front line starter.
I DO agree with the Duquette-esq Colon signing, a great move. He might give them something. But you can't really count on him holding up given his arm and belly woes.
Geesh, it must be tough being a Red Sox fan. Just the sight of unbiased observers picking another team throws you into a rage and allows you to start denigraing the other team....even if (especially if?) they aren't even your rivals.
At least I only get riled up if people pick the Bengals or Ravens over the Browns. I don't go picking fights with Charger fans if people pick them ahead of Cleveland.
Anyone, I'm not sure what you are worried about. With that lineup teh Sox has, your 4th and 5th starters just need to be serviceable (5.00 ERA) and go .500- and you should be fine. With starters with a 5.00 ERA, that means you will probably have 4-3 leads going into the 6th; and your bullpen is good enough to hold most of those leads.
Beckett is another issue, however. If he's out for a significant amount of time, then your concerns become more concrete and valid.
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