Week 2 NFL Picks

Before we get to the picks, Derek asked a good question last week -
"Why not just take the top 2-3 picks instead of the whole slate of 17 games?"

Well, to break even, one needs to go 11-10 over 21 games (that's a 52.3% success rate). I believe that - given I can choose whatever game I want, I can pick them at 53-55%. Last year I was approximately 54.5% over about 400 games.

So - if you believe you have a 54.5% success rate, it behooves you to pick as many games as you can, since you have an advantage! THa't my theory. Let's hope I don't throw up a 45% year.

On to the picks:

New York Jets 23, Miami 13 - Desperation does set in for the Jets; they need this game and will get it.

Buffalo 16, Tampa 7 - I was not impressed with Tampa's O; Buffalo shouldbe able to handle them. Buffalo will have fewer turnovers and should score some points.

New England 24, Carolina 20 - Hoenstly, I have no idea what will happen here. It's tough to pick against NE at this time, however.

Cincinnati 31, Minnesota 17 - Last week was just the start of what Cinci's Offense can do.

Pittsburgh 23, Houston 10 - Don't know much about the Texans, but Pit should run all over them, if Buffalo did.

Baltimore 16, Tennessee 6 - Can't see Ten scoring more than 10 pts. versus the Ravens D.

Cleveland 38, Green Bay 37 - BSG sees Green Bay scoring 37 against the Browns; so do I, unfortunately, But the Browns will score some points, too!

San Diego 31, Denver 20 - Now SD is desperate, and will win against an overrated Denver team.

Kansas City 27, Oakland 24 - Hard not to like KC's D last week. A barnburner that I'll listen to on the way home form Lambeau.

Philadelphia 23, San Fran 6 - Everyone and their sister has the Eagles covering. When I see that, I run - and run fast -away from that game.

Detroit 17, Chicago 9 - I have a feeling Detroit is this year's version of the 2002 Bears - the team from nowhere that got a lot of breaks and went 13-3.

St Louis i , Arizona 0- Wow - this is one of those games where both teams should lose the game. The league office rules that Arizona loses i to 0; however, since i is an imaginary number, St Louis loses too. Both teams are 0-2.
(OK: Arizona 31, St Louis 28)

Atlanta 20, Seattle 17 - another game where anything can happen, and I won't be surprised.

Indianaplis 31, Jacksonville 23 - I know, the Jags beat them twice last year. But these are the games that Dungy is going to use for motivation this year in order to get HFA.

New York Giants 17, New Orleans 16 - This game will go a looooong way to tell us about this year. If NYG win, then Carolina could be weker tha we thought; if NO wins, then we know Arizona is a fraud.

Dallas 27, Washington 10 - Is this always the week 2 Monday nighter? I always get this game wrong every year.

Best bets: (last week: 9-8-1; overall: 9-8-1)
Jets -6
Buf +2
Buf/TB Under 35
Cin -3
Pit/Hou Under 39
Bal -4
Bal/Ten Under 37
Cle/GB Over 41
SD +3
SD/Den Over 45
Phi/SF Under 40
Det -1.5
Det/Chi Under 33
Az/Stl Over 43
Ind/Jax Over 46
Dal -5.5
NYG/NO Under 43