AL Cheat Sheet for this weekend

Boy oh boy, how the math changes with 2 swings of the bat by David Ortiz.

I've broken down the possibilities for this weekend's action.

On the left are the 16 possble results from the series this weekend.
The P value is the probability (in 64ths) of this occuring, assuming that each team has a 50% chance of winning any game.
The result is your winner of the East and Wild Card.

Note: If NY and Bos tie and both are better than Cleveland, then NYY wins the division based on head-to-head record (NY is up 9-7 now).

IF................................P......................THEN
Chi 3-0, NYY 3-0.......1..............E: NYY, WC: Bos-Cle Tie
Chi 3-0, NYY 2-1.......3..............E: NYY, WC: Bos
Chi 3-0, Bos 2-1..........3..............E: NYY, WC: Bos
Chi 3-0, Bos 3-0..........1..............E: Bos, WC: NYY
Chi 2-1, NYY 3-0.......3..............E: NYY, WC: Cle
Chi 2-1, NYY 2-1.......9..............E: NYY, WC: Bos-Cle Tie
Chi 2-1, Bos 2-1.........9..............E: NYY, WC: Bos
Chi 2-1, Bos 3-0.........3..............E: Bos, WC: Cle-NYY Tie
Cle 2-1, NYY 3-0.......3..............E: NYY, WC: Cle
Cle 2-1, NYY 2-1.......9..............E: NYY, WC: Cle
Cle 2-1, Bos 2-1.........9..............**3 Way Tie** (see below)
Cle 2-1, Bos 3-0.........3..............E: Bos, WC: Cle
Cle 3-0, NYY 3-0.......1..............E: NYY, WC: Cle
Cle 3-0, NYY 2-1.......3..............E: NYY, WC: Cle
Cle 3-0, Bos 2-1..........3..............E: NYY-Bos Tie, WC: Cle
Cle 3-0, Bos 3-0..........1..............E: Bos, WC: Cle

Probabilities for each team:
NYY: Get in w/o playoff game: 45/64(70%); will be in a playoff game 15/64 (24%); out of playoffs 4/64 (6%)
Cle: Get in w/o playoff game: 26/64(41%); will be in a playoff game 22/64 (34%); out of playoffs 16/64 (25%)
Bos: Get in w/o playoff game: 23/64(36%); will be in a playoff game 22/64 (34%); out of playoffs 19/64 (30%)

3-way playoff: If this happens, then NYY-Bos will play on Monday; the winner is division champ; the loser plays Cle on Tuesday for the wildcard. This has a 14% chance of happening.

If Cleveland wins 2 of 3, they are in unless Boston wins 2 and only 2.
If Cleveland wins only 1, they are guaranteed at least a playoff unless Boston wins 2 and only 2.

If Boston wins 2, they are in without a playoff only if Cleveland loses 2 or more.
If Boston only wins 1, they are out if Cleveland wins 2. (obvious)

New York is in with 2 wins; with 1 win, they are guaranteed at least a playoff game.

New York cannot clinch anything on Friday.