Pick for Tonight

OK, all, here is my process for selecting what "wagers" to select on any given Sunday. Let's work through the process for tonight's game.

Of course, by "wagers", I mean for entertainment purposes only. Have to throw that in.

Step 1. Do NOT look at the lines before analyzing the games. I can't stress this enough. It's too easy to look at a line and immediately be biased one way or another - and then you get caught trying to analyze the game to defend your inital bias. (for example, you are surprised that Denver is "only" giving 5, and you end up analyzing the game to make sure you pick Denver)

When looking at games, you need to make sure you are unbiased with regard to the line. That's why I don't pick Cleveland games - I can't be unbiased when talking about the Browns.

Step 2. Look at the off/def matchups on each side and predict how that will play out. Ball control? Lots of possessions?
Taking tonight's game as an example:
NE O / Oak D: This seems like a classic game where NE has about 8-9 possessions, each of 7-10 plays, with a lot of Corey Dillon and eating up the clock. I'm guessing 20-24 points.
Oak O/NE D: The big play offense is there, but I believe Belicheck will be ready to contain Moss. Oak will move the ball - I especially like Jordan - but I can't see them putting up 3 or 4 TDs. NE will stop them inside the 20 on multiple occasions. I think Oak will kick 3-4 FGs as drives stall. I even started Janikowski in my fantasy league.

Step 3. Any intangibles to consider? Rookie QBs? Coaches? Home teams that are considered lightly? None especially in this game.

Step 4. Make a prediction of the final score given the above analysis.
My prediction: New England 24, Oakland 16

Step 5: Check the line
Line: NE -7 1/2, o/u 50

Step 6: If your prediction varies more than 3 points from the line or more than 6 from the over/under, go with it!
There we are: I will pick the under in tonight's game.

Step 7: Are there any hard-and-fast rules that are violated with this pick? Some rules are: Home underdogs in prime-time games are like 70% ATS; are you picking a team that hasn't covered in a while; is Marty Schottenheimer involved?
None for this game.

There we go! Good luck.