In keeping with the "Price Is Right" theme for my NFL picks, week 3's featured game is "Now.... And Then". (Or is it "Now... or then"? Only Bob knows).
When picking games for this week, you have to consider the NOW - who a team is playing and where they are playing NOW - but you also have to start to consider who they have played so far - the THEN part.
Take, for example, the Baltimore Ravens. Everyone says their defense is back - back to a 2000 level. Well, let's take a look at the "THEN". They have played Oakland at home... arguable the worst team in the NFL since the 2000 Cleveland Browns with Spergon Wynn at the helm - and they have played Tampa, a team who has scored 3 points so far.
The sum of the Ravens' oppoenent's power rankings is above 60, easily. Now - take that into account before we say they are #1 in the league (I'm looking at you, Mr. King).
With that background, here are the picks:
Min 17, Chi 13. The Bears' opponents are horrid. Methinks we are overestimating the Bears a bit.
Mia 20, Ten 13. Who's better, the NYJ/SD pair or the Pit/Buf pair? A tossup, right? Then why is Miami favored by 11? (God help me- I'm taking the Titans again....)
Car 17, TB 14. I've thought about this game for 3 hours today - still have no clue.
Det 28, GB 17. This has shootout written all over it.
Buf 23, NYJ 20. The Bills have played the Pats tough and the Dolphins. The Jets also played the Pats tough and the Titans (a win). These two, coupled with the Mia-Ten game, has the feel of a World Cup group K where the winner of the group advances to play Italy and get smoked 6-1 in the first round. Have I digressed enough?
Hou 17, Was 16. Hou's opponents have been the underrated Eagles and the Colts. Washington played Dal and Min. Who's better? I think Houston. And this is in Houston.
Jax 23, Ind 20. Indy can not stop the run... and yet I'm too chicken to start Fred Taylor.
Cin 24, Pit 17. I am impressed with Cincy so far. I know, this is in Pittsburgh- but Cincy's running game will be too much, and Willie Parker will have another off day.
Bal 16, Cle 13. A 4 pm game - why? Bal's offense has not impressed yet.
Sea 20, NYG 17. Would love to see another Shockey moment - where he points triumphantly at the camera as the potential winning kick goes wide... then he realizes his mistake.
Az 20, Stl 16. StL has changed their offense - it's now a more ball-controlled offense. It's not a Mike Martz special anymore.
SF 26, Phi 23. I think SF is better than people think. Their opponents have been Az and Stl - the latter being a solid defensive team. Phi has beaten Houston and lost to NYG. They have a suspect secondary - and that's SF's strength.
NE 23, Den 13. Den has scored a total of 19 points vs. two average- to solid defenses. Aren't the Pats as good on D as the Chiefs?
NO 20, Atl 17. If any game called for the Monday night rule - where you always take the home underdog - it's here.
16 best bets. Last week: 8-7-1; overall : 13-16-2.
Min +4
Ten +11
Det -6.5
Det/GB Over 39
NYJ +6
NYJ/Buf Over 34 1/2
Hou +4
Jax +6.5
Cin +2
Sea/NYG Under 43
Az/Stl under 44 1/2
SF +6
SF/Phi Over 42 1/2
NE -6.5
NO +4
NO/Atl under 43 1/2
6 comments:
Here are my picks for college. They will go towards my 16...
1. rice over 48
2. Ohio St. -17
3. USC -22
4. Maryland -18
5. CAL -8
6. Washington ST. -10
7. ND Over 59
8. Louisville -13.5
Nice drunken picks. Next week do eenie meenie miinie mo.
Wait a second. These picks I loved. Rice is terrible, PSU can't play with Ohio State, ASU is 0-10 against the spread in California, Stanford got trounced by a terrible Navy team, ND's defense is terrible. The only two I went on that was just a drunk pick was Maryland and USC.
And how about the OSU cover? Two late 4th Qtr interceptions to cover. Its nice to see some of this stuff fall my way.
Anyway, I had my picks entered last night but then lost my connection. Very strange that Eric and I are similar on most of these. Here are my remaining 8 picks.
Houston
Houston Under
Atlanta
Lions
Lions Over
49ers
Denver
Ravens
Gooch - by my count, Derek is 6-2 with those college picks. Are you dissing them?
Derek - I see you're off the Browns bandwagon.
It's scary that we like a lot of underdogs this week.
Fuck the Browns. I would be stupid to continue with them. Jamal will run all over them and that defense will score at least 7 points.
Also, for you gambling boys, here is what I learned yesterday:
-Can they set the Over/Under high enough for ND?
-I will be riding the Kansas St. Under for the next couple of weeks. Their defense looked extremely good and they have a true freshman at QB. This should equate to a lot of low scoring games.
-Sorry boys but I will be betting against MD for the rest of the way. How do you just barely beat Florida Int?
-Stanford can't play period!!! This should be easy money for the next couple of weeks.
-You find out so much stuff by talking to actual true College fans. I have a OSU, PSU, ASU, and USC guys that I work with. I also gained a couple of Louisville and Kansas St guys that will be able to give me some very important nuggets down the stretch. Depending on how today goes, I might just solely go college.
I wasn't dissing DZ. I was impressed that he mentioned he was drunk when he made those college picks and he did so well.
I wouldn't him to try eenie meenie miinie mo next time and see how that worked out.
I wanted him to, not I wouldn't him to....
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