Week 1 NFL Preview

First off, congratulations and good luck to one of our co-bloggers, Jon (Jorge Blogsada), who is getting married this weekend. That's the main reason why Derek has been silent for the last few days (and I've had the blog to myself).

Now for the picks. If you weren't with us last year, I predict every game's score. I then take the margin (and the total # of points) to determine the best bets for the week. If the difference between my margin and the official line is more than 3 points for a team, or 6 points for an over-under, that qualifies as a best bet.

The goal is to go through the season and pick the games at a 52.4% clip. That's the breakeven mark.

Here we go:

St Louis 24, Denver 20. Just a gut feeling. St Louis will be fired up, and wil be able to move (especially with Stephen Jackson) on the ground. Denver just does not seem like a dome team to me.

Tennessee 20, NY Jets 9. Tennessee has a OK defense - and that will be enough to stop the weak Jets' O.

New England 31, Buffalo 24. I don't know what, but I like what Buffalo has done and how they look. JP Losman has grown. And I don't think NE's defense is all that good anymore - when they are signing overrated, retired players (like Seau), that's not good news.

Tampa Bay 17, Baltimore 13. No idea. I don't think McNair wil llight it up in his first game back.

Cincinnati 31, Kansas City 27. I'm not sold on Cincy's D yet.

Seattle 23, Detroit 10. I am definitely NOT on the Lions bandwagon here, led by Peter King. Yeah, yeah, Rod Marinelli, military guy and all that - but it's Jon Kitna as QB.

Carolina 24, Atlanta 14. Atlanta, outdoors, vs. a good defense has never produced points.

Philly 23, Houston 20, OT. This will go down to the wire.

Cleveland X, New Orleans 13. I like the Browns' D, and I think we can hold the Saints to 13. Now, with Frye as our QB, can we score more than 13 at home?

Can we?

....

Well, OK. I don't feel good about this game, for whatever reason. Cle 16, NO 13.

Dallas 21, Jacksonville 13. I have to go against my heart on this one. Some one explain how the Jaguars are going to score.

Chicago 20, Green Bay 14. Favre will throw 3 INT, but will move the ball somewhat and get 2 scores. But the turnovers will lead to 13 Bear points.

Arizona 28, San Francisco. I know about the offense for each team, but what about the D I know nothing.

New York Giants 26, Indianapolis 23. The Sunday Night game is the new Monday Night game - home teams win.

Washington 17, Minnesota 10. See the question above regarding Jacksonville - how is Minnesota going to move the ball and score?

San Diego 30, Oakland 16. Any team that looked at Jeff George as a viable option at QB NOW is pathetic.

14 Best bets: (record: 1-0 so far)

StL +4
Ten -2.5
Ten/NYJ Under 35 1/2
NE/Buf over 41
Cin +2
Cin/KC Over 47 1/2
Sea -6
Sea/Det Under 45
Car -5
Phi/Hou over 37
Dal +1
NYG +3
SD -3
Was/Min under 35