Over the next several weeks, I'll start to preview the 2006 Election - will the Democrats rally to take over the House, Senate, or both? How many governorships will the Republicans lose?
Before we go into each of the races, here's an excellent post by Michael Barone summarizing the Democratic Sentate Primary in Maryland. A combination of political horse-race handicapping, statistics, and local geography. What's not to love?
2006: Cardin beats Mfume 44-40.
I had no idea that the make-up of the population of Maryland has changed so much, as Barone has said.
6 comments:
The sun had this as well but not in this type of detail. Very interesting. I think basically means an interesting race with Steele vs. Cardin, but a landslide for O'Malley.
O'Malley vs. Erhlich should not be a landslide.
Read the article. If PG county is growing in force, and it basically all Democrats, then why would it be close? And I must of seen a 10-1 O Malley lawn signs in Baltimore County.
Baltimore City schools would be my #1 factor against O'Malley.
Baltimore City police commissioners #2.
The one thing that puzzles me so much about the MD Governor's race is....
that I saw Ehrlich's job rating at 55%.
Think about that. How do you square that figure with the fact he's pulling in the low 40's in the polls?
Is there 10-15% of the electorate that approves of Ehrlich's job, but will vote him out anyway?
(that may be an old figure for teh job apporval for Ehrlich - if anyone has seen something recent, please post).
And, of course, those polls are always right on...like the exit polls showing Kerry winning or Clinton beating Dole by 19 on election night. For whatever reason, polls are almost ALWAYS skewed about 3-5 points to the democrat. I can't think of a single exception offhand.
I believe Ehrlich is about 5-6 points behind in the latest polling. The Democratic bias in those polls, plus the high job approval, means this race is clearly a tossup. And most professional analysts (Cook, CQ) say the same.
Agreed EZ. Its closer than that article would assume, however, the fact that the democrats have basically been screwing Erhlich during his entire tenure give O'Malley an edge.
I heard there was a debate between the two this week and it seemed as if Erhlich came out on top.
The democrats would win by a landslide if they had a better candidate than O'Malley.
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