Political Update

One of my passionate interests is politics. One part of politics is the policy debate that goes on between the two sides - most of you know that I love to argue the points and tell all those Democrats to stop whining already about 2000.

However, another part of my political interest is the electoral analysis - which rears its head every two years with the congressional elections. Yes, I am a nerd that creates the white board to track the results as they come in every even-year November. For whatever reason, I find the zero-sum game between Democrats and Republicans - and the shifts in strategy (or lack thereof) that each party undergoes in order to win fascinating.

One of the theories out there is that the House (and maybe the Senate) may turn Democratic in the fall. Reasons for this vary - starting from the unpopularity of Bush, the immigration debate, Iraq, and the corruption scandals. Right now, it's just a lot of postulation.

Today, however, we may get a first harbinger of what could happen in the fall. There is a special election in the 50th district in CA today. This election will elect a replacement for Duke Cunningham, a Republican congressman who had to resign due to bribes and other ethical problems.

This district is a solid Republican district; Bush got 61% here in 2004. However, as in any open-seat contest, both parties think they can win. This election pits Brian Bilbray (R) vs. Francine Busby (D). busby got 43% in the all-party primary - the big question is whether she can get the last 7% to carry her over the top.

Polls show a dead heat (Busby by 2, 47-45 in the latest), but this is before a Busby rally in which an illegal immigant asked how to help. Busby responded: "You don't need papers to vote!" I'll let you draw your own conclusions on what that meant. Republicans are pounding on that statement and using it to make sure their core support comes out.

This is a race that the Democrats HAVE to win if they want to get the 15 seats they need to get control in November. Watch the results tonight, if you are interested. My only prediction is that if Busby (D) wins, then the lead story EVERYWHERE (NYT, CNN, maybe even Drudge) tonight, tomorrow and the next few days will be the coming Democratic landslide, but if Bilbray (R) wins, the media will downplay the victory.