Observations on the NCAAs, with a week left

Some of my thoughts off the top of my head on the NCAAs, with a week left until Selection Sunday.

(Good news, by the way! The Blue Ribbon Tournament Guide is back! I used to get this all the time from 1995-01 when it was published. It is a 80 page guide with a 1 page description on each of the teams. It did not publish for the past 5 years; it is resuming publication in 2007. I am getting the hard copy delivered Fed Ex on the TUesday before the tournament.

Thoughts by conference, with the # of locks in parentheses:

ACC (7): Let's get it out there. If I'm a #12 seed or so, who the hell am I supposed to be scraed of in this conference outside of NC or Md? Virginia had the conference title in their hand - but lost at Wake with it all on the line. Va Tech looked awful at Va Tech and couldn't beat Clemson at home. BC? Blown out. Duke is overrated, in my opinion. Ga Tech may be the 3rd best team in the conference.
Fla St has a chance to get in - if they win the 8/9 game - but Clemson is out for now.

Am East (1): If Vermont gets in, they'd be a solid 13; if not, then the winner is a 15 at best.

A-10 (1? 2?): Did you know this tourney is played in...Atlantic City? How much did Trump pay them to move it there?
Xavier is in, no matter what. If they lose the conf tourney, then this conference will get 2.

Atl Sun (1): Belmont is in, possibly a 14.

Big East (7): Georgetown is solid, but who else? Pitt is fading, Marquette has questions, Notre Dame can't play away from home, Louisville could do some damage. I think both Syracuse and Villanove are overrated - look at Syracuse's road record - but we will give them a spot for now. West Virginia is out, according to me.

Big Ten (??? 3? 6?) : Ohio St is a solid #1...I think Wisconsin has questions - they can be overpowered physically. Indiana is paying better now. Then what? Michigan St is 1-8 away from home, Illinois just lost to Iowa, Purdue plays hard but they're not that talented, and Michigan sucks. I can see 3,4 or 5 - not 6.

Big West (1): Long Beach St will be a 14. I know nothing about them.

Big 12 (4). Right now, Kansas is a #1, Texas A&M is a solid 2, Texas is zooming up the charts, and Tex Tech sneaks in. Who else? Is Huggy Bear and the Kansas St Wildcats in? Possibly, depending on the tourneys.

Big South (1): Winthrop is in, possibly as high as a 10. They can win 2 games - an #11 seed would be perfect for them.

Big Sky (1): I know nothing.

CAA (2): Just a mess. If Old Dominion wins tongiht, then I think both VCU (reg season champ) and ODU (highest RPI, at 35) are both in. What about Drexel? They won at Syracuse and at Villanova - but finished 4th in conference and looked outclassed today vs. VCU. My prediction: they are the last team out.

C-USA: (1/2): Memphis is in. That's it, unless they lose. Their final is at 10:35 am local time next Saturday. A high price to pay for national TV exposure.

Horizon (2): Butler is in, although they are really struggling. I predict, however, that Wright St will win on the Eric A. Zahn memorial court in Dayton.... and the conference gets 2.
I also predict that Butler is this year's Nevada from 06, and may flame out in round 1.

Ivy: (1): Penn is in, but they are not a good 14.

MAC(1): Akron or Toledo, for a #13 seed.

MAAC(1): Loyola is still alive! They play tonight.

MEAC (1): The winner gets a 16 seed.

MVC (2/3): Creghton and Sothern Illinois are in- Southern is the real deal, and can go far as a 3 seed and the right draw (Wisconsin?). Missouri St is 3rd, and may get in. Last team in or out.

Moutain West (3): BYU and UNLV are two good teams I haven't seen. Air Force is struggling, but they should get in. The big questions is if San Diego St can sneak in with a tourney final appearance. I say no.

Mid-Con(1): Oral Roberts beat Kansas earlier this year; if they get in , they will be an interesting 14.

Northeast (1): Mt St Mary's i splaying now against hte #1 seed: if they win (vs Cent Conn), the winner of the conference certainly goes to Dayton for the play in game.

OVC (1): Eastern Kentucky is a 15/16.

Patriot (1): The winner of Bucknell/Holy Cross wil lbe a tough 13/14; the loser goes to the NIT.

Pac-10 (6): I guess we will take all 6. UCLA has locked up a #1, but then what? How good is Washington St? Oregon has Ernie Kent as their coach - that takes them down a notch. USC is young. Arizona just falls asleep at times. I think Stanford is closer to the bubble than people realize. Washington needs to win to get in.

SEC (4): God, the SEC West is worse than the 1994 AL West. Who would have guessed that the two teams getting the byes from the SEC West are - Mississippi and Mississippi St, both 8-8???
And how good in Florida - they lost 3 down the stretch. Kentucky is overrated - mark my words. Tennessee can't win away from home - and Vanderbilt just lost to a horrid Arkansas team. Honestly, I can see LSU getting hot and winning the whole thing and getting in.

Gees, this golf is insane. I love a tournament when everyone puts it in reverse and someone who finished 100 minutes ago now is in a playoff.

Southern (1): Davidson will be a 12/13, and could win a game.

Southland (1): I know nothing, but the name "Texas A&M at Corpus Christi" would be a loooong name to put on a bracket.

SWAC (1). Who knows. The winner goes to Dayton.

Sun Belt (1): The favorite lost; Western Kentucky is the leader now and probably will be a 15.

WAC (1)?: Nevada is in, but I don't like them. Fazekas just looks like a lightweight. I wached them last night and saw New Mex St - a good team - physically beat them, although they fouled a lot. I can easily see Nevada losing in the WAC tourney, stealing another bid.

WCC (1). What to do with Gonzaga if they don't win? This team beat North Carolina... in November, with the two players that are now out for the mushroom incident. The winner (either Gonzaga or Santa Clara) will be a 12 or 13.

So - doing my math, that's.....62, given 4 for the big 10. That leaves 3 more for conference upsets - like the A-10, Horizon, WAC, and C-USA; otherwise, teams like Clemson, Fla St, WV, K St, 5th big 10, Drexel, Missouri St.

I love 4-way PGA playoffs, especially when someone hits their tee ball in the mud.