Mar 10, 2007

God, please keep Wiz away from me.

OK, all of these other posts were just a warm up to this one. The pre Vegas prep. I'm posting this now since I need a lot of feedback on my plan. I always put a plan into place before I go out, but it falls through. I don't think I've ever put it into writing before, but this time is different. Without Jay or Lee out there, what is stopping Wiz and I from going crazy. $1000 on black on Thursday night at 11:00pm could very well happen if no one is watching us. Eric will stand by and judge, but not do anything, and Don will probably encourage us. So I need a written plan to follow.

Before we get started on the plan, let me tell you about a huge blunder that I did last week. Our company has profit sharing and is always paid out during the last week in March. I was going to change some of my payout options to receive more cash upfront due to this trip, marriage expenses, and Carol's real estate expenses. As usual, I procrastinated and was not able to change this option, which means that all of my profit sharing will go into my deferred account. Not a bad choice in the long run, but this just kills me in the short term. Oh, and I won't get my tax return back in time either, so now I'm really strapped for cash for this trip. I don't have a lot of room for error. I won't be able to handle a drunk night of crazy gambling losses like I used to. Oh, I just lost $300 on black? No biggie. 10 straight losing handles at BJ? No biggie. $25 on the hard ways? Let's do it. Well not anymore. And I can't wait for the judging eye of Eric when I start doing this on Friday night at 1:00am.


So here are some basic ground rules that I'm setting up:
1. Thursday will be spent with my friend Dick from AZ. We will play about 2-3 hours of video poker while watching the games and then make a trek out to the low end casinos to play $5 single deck BJ. Dick oversees our West Coast Claims Division and has a passion for slumming. Last year he stopped out and we hit The Orleans, South Coast, and two other shitty casinos to find a hot $5 BJ table. Lots of fun and very cost effective.
*Note*- Do not let Eric around this guy. When Dick and Eric first met, Eric didn't know that he was a VP of our company and let out the smelliest fart of all time at the bar in the Monte Carlo. First time I think I've ever seen Eric thoroughly embarrassed.

2. Hitch my wagon to Don in the evenings. I hate playing poker at the Mirage and I hate playing poker alone. But I will play a lot more poker this trip, as long as I can play with Don. This will also keep me sober during my most weakest hours; 8pm-midnight.

3. Watch what Eric and Wiz bet on, and if there are any matches, go in the opposite direction. I have never seen such a losing streak when several very knowledgeable basketball guys all agree on a certain game. Its crazy.

4. I will play roulette, but will not bet on black. I repeat, I will not bet on black.

5. Up my BJ play to a minimum of $25 a hand. This way it will eliminate the bad players. If I do play at a lesser table, then it has to be with the boys and nobody else.

6. Get up a leave immediately whenever I see a bad play by someone else at the table.

7. NO shuffle machines. Ever!! No matter how bad I want to play BJ, I will not play at a shuffle machine table.

8. Stay away from the Bellagio. I hate the dealers and clientele. Why do we always make a stop there?

9. If I go on a winning streak in the Sportsbook, do not start to increase the wagers. Stick to the plan. I tend to increase the wagers after I have a good session and then loss it all back. This is gambling 101. Ugh.

Am I forgetting anything? Breakdown of expenses:

Sportsbook: $640 for the trip. $10 a game. Now I'm not planning on wagering on every game, but I'm also not stupid and only go in there saying that I'm going to only wager on 5-6 games. I'm going to concentrate on the moneylines on the 11 and 12 seed teams and find one game to unload. Then I'll go with several $10 games. Jay, if you can help with some ideas on NBA games, that would be great. For me I can get into a game that I only have $10 on or $100.

2. BJ: $700- This is going to be interesting. Let's see if I can't break out of this losing streak that I've got going. I am willing to give up BJ, like I have done before if I continue to have these losing sessions.

3. Pai Gow: $300. Let's see if I can hang with Micah for a long session.

4. Craps:???- This is the real big question mark. $1000 budget? $500? $2000? I have no idea. I also need a strategy on what I'm going to do. I'm torn between the place bets and the come. I need some assistance on this.

5. Roulette: $600- That's two big times that I'll allow myself to play. No betting on red or black. Here that Wiz. I'm not doing it. Eric, Don, and Micah, please tackle me if you see this happen.

6. Video Poker: $200- This should hold me for a couple of bad runs with Dick.

7. Wheel: $200- I love playing Wheel of Fortune and is often forgotten.

8. Poker: $300- If I'm not winning, I'll stop. Its been a while since I've played, but still there is no excuse if I can't clean up.

So that is it. My total budget for gambling: $3940 if I go with $1000 for craps. Wow, that added up quickly. I wanted a $3000 budget, but I can live with $4000.

Thoughts? Ideas? Comments?

8 comments:

Don said...

I've been waiting for this post for a while. Derek, thanks for getting it started. Current plan of attack. (and Derek, I can loan you some money at a very enticing interest rate, should you need it)

Arrive Mirage around Midnight on Wednesday, play poker until 4 or 5. Sleep until noon, head for golf course, golf, nap, late dinner/snack then poker. Will there be a nap between poker and golf Friday morning? (I don't think so).

Golf Friday morning ---then SLEEP. Followed by Poker until I start to make bad decisions. Sleep.

That gets us to Saturday ...sometime. Saturday evening, there is a rumor of heading downtown to the $5 craps tables (I'm all in on this plan). Push it as late as I can that evening. Fly home on Sunday.

What I believe...

1) BJ is an evil evil game and a long term loser (unless you count cards, a skill I haven't developed yet). And I HATE (with a passion) the shuffle machines. ABSOLUTELY NO SHUFFLE MACHINES.

2) Pai Gow - I love this game. (I know, it has a shuffle machine)

3) Poker - $1-2 NL - I believe Wiz when he describes it as an ATM machine. If its anything like on-line, he is correct.

4) 3-way Parlay - Boilers, Zips, Lady Boilers (for those watching at home, the Dance, NIT, W-NCAA) Book it.

5) Not sure if I'll get a poker tournament in on this trip.

6) I'll take "back door action" anytime I can get it.

7) I want Derek to, at least once, look me in the eye and say ... "you are a complete moron"

8) Do I risk credit card roulette at Flays ...again?

9) I wish Leland was joining us.

10) If Wiz and Eric agree on a bet ...gooch 'em and go the opposite way (its a sure fire winner)

skeetskeet11 said...

Every word of this post is like a kick in the nuts.

P.S. I heart Don.

4micah said...

My plan:

Pai Gow - 24/7

Perhaps a little Wheel...

Wiz said...

I've already got my first lock! Oral Roberts +7 against WSU. Book it, I'm unloading, I will even take the money line. They will win this game outright. Eric, do you agree??

Wiz said...

In case anybody missed the real selection show last night...Clemson is a one seed in the South. We own the NIT!

Eric Z said...

I'll take any action from Don on the Zips in the NIT...

oh, that's right - Akron didn't make it. That's the biggest snub for the NIT committee.

Wash St - ORU: not sure. I can easily see it. However, I think another Pac-10 #3 seed will go down.......

Eric Z said...

Oh, and Albany is a lock too. Wiz?

dzahn07 said...

Word just came in on USC. No post game and if Ark has any size whatsoever, they will lose. Austin is no confident on the Trojans.