NCAA Tournament Theory #1

Allow me if you will to have my next posts help confirm or debuk some theories I have about picking winners/upsets in the Tourney.

The first tasks is to focus on upsets. One theory is that a lower-seeded team that emerges as a Cinderella undoubtedly has previous tournament experience. Rookie or first-time teams are usually not Cinderella.

I have looked at the Tournament results for the past 7 years and picked out the #12-#16 seeds that either won or lost by 5 (covered the spread, you know). Out of those teams, I looked at the previous history of the team.

Here we go:
2006: 8 teams (out of a possible 20)
Tex A&M - 12 seed; won 1 game
no previous experience
NW St - 14; won 1
no exp.
Bradley - 13; won 2 games
no exp.
Xavier - 14; lost by 3
2004- 7 seed, elite 8; 2003 - 3 seed, won 1 game
Murray St - 14, lost by 4
04 -12 seed, lost
Winthrop - 15, lost by 2
05 - 14 seed, lost
Montana - 12; won 1 game
05- 16 seed, lost
Pacific - 13 seed, lost in 2OT
05 - 8 seed, won1 game; 04- 12 seed, won 1 game

2005: 3 teams:
Wis-Milwaukee: 12, won 2 games
03 - 12 seed, lost
Ohio: 13 seed, lost by 5
no exp.
Vermont: 13; won 1 game
04- 15 seed, lost; 03- 16 seed, lost

2004: 7 teams
Pacific: 12 seed, won 1 game
no exp.
Northern Iowa: 14 seed, lost by 5
no exp.
Manhattan: 12 seed, won 1 game
03: 14 seed, lost
VCU: 13 seed, lost by 1
no exp.
E Tenn St: 13 seed, lost by 3
03 - 15 seed, lost
BYU: 12 seed, lost by 5
03: 12 seed lost

2003: 8 teams
Tulsa - 13 seed, won 1 game (over *(&$^@#$ Dayton)
02: 12 seed, won 1 game
Holy Cross: 14 seed, lost by 4
02: 16 seed, lost; 01: 15 seed, lost
Wis-Mil: 12 seed, lost by 1
no exp
Western Ky: 13 seed, lost by 5
02: 9 seed, lost; 01: 14 seed, lost
Utah St: 15 seed, lost by 3
01: 12 seed, won 1 game; 00: 12 seed, lost
BYU: 12 seed, lost by 5
01: 12 seed, lost
Butler: 12 see, won 2 games
01: 10 seed, won 1; 00: 12 seed, lost
ETSU: 15 seed, lost by 3
no exp

2002: 6 teams
UNC-Wilm: 13 seed, won 1 game
00: 15 seed, lost
Missouri: 12 seed, won 3 games
01: 9 seed, won 1; 00: 9 seed, lost; 99: 8 seed, lost
Davidson: 13 seed, lost by 5
no exp
UC-SB: 14 seed, lost by 5
no exp
Tulsa: 12 seed, won 1 game
00: 7 seed, won 3 games; 99: 9 seed, won 1 game
Creighton: 12 seed, won 1 game
00: 10 seed, lost; 99: 10 seed, won 1 game

2001: 9 teams
Iona: 14 seed, lost by 2
00: 14 seed, lost; 98: 12 seed, lost
Gonzaga: 12 seed: won 2 games
00: 10 seed, won 2 games; 99: 10 seed, won 3 games
Indiana St: 13 seed, won 1 game
00: 12 seed, lost
Utah St: 12 seed, won 1 game
00: 12 seed, lost: 98: 13 seed, lost
Southern Utah: 14 seed, lost by 3
no exp
Holy Cross: 15 seed, lost by 4
no exp
Kent St: 13 seed, won 1 game
99: 11 seed, lost
George Mason: 14 seed, lost by 3 (to Maryland!)
99: 14 seed, lost
Hampton: 15 seed, won 1 game
no exp

2000: 5 teams - none of which won (NO upsets pulled by any team #12 or higher!)
SE Missouri St: 13 seed,lost by 3
no exp
Northern Arizona: 15 seed, lost by 5
98: 15 seed,lost
St Bonaventure: 12 seed, lost by 5, 2OT
no exp
Butler: 12 seed, lost by 1
98: 13 seed, lost; 97: 14 seed, lost
LA-Lafayette: 13 seed, lost by 5
no exp

What does this all mean? Hell if I know. You tell me.

Actually, there were 46 teams over the past 7 eyars that were #12 seeds or hight and either won or lost by 5 or less.
Out of these 46 teams, only 18 of them had no tourney experience in the previous 4 years. 28 of them did.
Out of those 28 , only 9 of themhad won a tourney game in the past 4 years.

So the Cinderellas have tourney experience, but may not have actually won a game in the recent past. Sometimes the teams are rising - their seed has gone up and up each year until their breakthrough (seeVermont, 05 and Holy Cross, 03 and Utah St, 01). Sometimes it is just their second year to the tourney after a bad debut last year or the year before (Montana, 06; Wisc-Mil, 03; Manhattan, 04).
But sometimes it is a semi-established team that has had higher seeds in the past but is having a down year - like Xavier, 06; Tulsa, 03; Missouri, 02; Creighton, 02).

Any teams this year fit these molds?

Well, the first one that clearly stands out is Winthrop. Their seed will improve form a 14 in 05 and a 15 in 06 to something like a 11/12 this year. Second-year teams that could make an impact are Oral Roberts (16 in 06), Davidson(15 in 06), SOuth Alabama (14 in 06).

An established team in a down year with a high seed could be Illinois (a 12 possibly this year) or a mystery team from a high-mid, like the WAC, A-10, or C-USA (Temple? UAB? Hawaii?)

Just things to think about....