The past weekend of college basketball brought just a little more clarity to the tournament picture. Here is my take on where we are - the locks and bubbles - and some one-line thoughts on teams and conferences for the NCAA tournament:
Conference (L= # locks, B=# bubbles)
Am East: 1 (I know nothing on these teams)
ACC: L:4 B: 3? 4? Geesh. Who is the 5th team in the ACC? Md gets no kudos for beating Ga Tech at home in OT. Florida St has an easier schedule down the stretch. The bubble teams in order: Fla St, Md, Miami-Fl, Va.
A-10: L:1. What a pathetic conference. Who is the 2nd best team in this conference now? It's La Salle, RPI #99. No bubbles here. And I'm not impressed with GW. They will be a #3, #4 seed, and with the wrong draw, could lose in the 1st round.
(and you know GW will lose in the conf tournament, sending 2 teams to the NCAAs)
A-Sun: 1
B East: L: 7. B: 2 (Syr, Cin). I'd like to see more of each bubble team before putting them as locks. Home wins by both over the weekend over the also rans in the conference is not impressive enough.
B Sky: 1. N Arizona will be a dangerous #13-#14 seed.
B South: 1. Same with Winthrop.
B 10: L:6. B: 1. Is Indiana even a bubble team anymore? Geesh.
B 12: L: 3. B: 2 (Col, Neb)? What do you do about Colorado? They finally get the win they want vs. Oklahoma, then lose badly on the road to K St. Yikes. Right now, they are most people's last team in - and shouldn't do much damage.
B West: 1. Any comments about Pacific or Irvine?
CAA: L:1. B: 2 (NC-W, Hofstra). George Mason is now IN no matter what about going to Wichita and winning. Is Wilmington in too, now? I say yes. What if Hostra or ODU wins the CAA? Then this conference can - and should - get 3. This has happened before - remember the Horizon in 1999 or 2000? Detroit Mercy, Ill-Chi, and Butler all made it from the #10th best conference? This is a similar situation.
C-USA: L:1. B: 3 (UAB, UTEP, Hou)? Houston has slid up the board here. Non-conference schedules of UAB and UTEP are just killers.
Horizon: L: 1. UW-M's loss on Saturday removes any chance of being an at-large.
Ivy: L:1. And I wouldn't think too highly of Penn - they lost to last place Dartmouth on Friday. THey will be a #14, #15, be overrated and be blown out by 25.
MAAC: L: 1. Sorry -no two bids this year.
MAC: L:1. Sorry Don - Akron looked terrible vs. Nevada. No two bids this year. Akron wil be a weak #13 or #14 and still lose. Akron is #70 in the RPI; too high for an at-large.
Mid-Con: L:1: everyone's favorite team, IUPUI (pronounced ooo-eeee-poo-eee)
Mid-Eastern: L:1. No idea here.
Missouri Valley: L:3 B:3 (S Ill, Miss St, Bradley). UNI, Wichita, and Crieghton are locks. Missouri St had a HUGE win to probably get the inside track on an at-large; they won AT UW-M. Southern Ill had a big loss to La Tech at home; they have been fading and may miss it now. Bradley is coming on strong.
No way this conference gets 6, but still a strong chance for 5.
Mtn West: L:1 B: 1 (AF). Air Force has a terrible SOS (#290), but a neutral court win vs Miami that may be a tiebreaker down the stretch. If they get in (#11, #12 seed), they will be a tough out.
NEC: 1. No idea
OVC: 1. No idea.
Pac-10: L: 3 B: 2(Cal, Stan). What to do here? Is Cal in or out? Stanford is hanging on the bubble but another loss this weekend kills them. I'd guess that Cal is in, and are good enough to win a 1st round game.
Patriot: L:1. Bucknell is going to be a tough call for the committee if they lose in the tournament. RPI #40, great non-conf SOS #37, and wins vs. Syracuse on the road, St Joes at home. Could have sealed it with a win Sat vs N Ia. Right now, probably a #11; very similar to a NC-Wilmington from 2003 who took Md to the wire. Will be over-rated come tourney time due to history, but could do damage (Sweet 16?) given the right draw. Say, this scenario comes up:
#3 GW vs #14 Northwestern St
#6 Boston College vs #11 Bucknell
then Bucknell has a great shot to go to the Sweet 16. However, if it is:
#3 Tennessee vs #14 Akron
#6 Georgetown vs #11 Bucknell
then Bucknell will struggle to win 1 game, let alone 2.
ok, where was I?
SEC: L:4. B:3 (Ala, Ark, Vandy). Kentucky is in for me. What to do with Arkansas, who can't win a game on the road to save their life? I have a feeling it may come down to Maryland and Arkansas for the last spot, and that's when Maui might save the Terps. You watch Arkansas play - and you wonder how they win games. Clutch defense is terrible, can't shoot free throws, and don't have a true go to guy.
In general, this conference may be overrated.
Southern: L:1. Is this the year for Elon?
Southland: L:1. Northwestern St. Remember this name come tourney time. A legit team who will be a #13 and has the experience to pull off the upset.
SWAC: L:1. No idea
Sun Belt: L:1. Western Kentucky has a chance for an at-large, but it's not likely. RPI is 42, beat UAB (another bubble team) on the road and Viriginia. 8 straight wins.
West Coast: L:1. Gonzaga is overrated. They can't play D.
WAC: L:1. B: 2 (Utah St, La Tech)? This is another conference that can sneak 2 or 3 in. Utah St now at 50 in the RPI, and 8-1 vs top 100. La Tech had a huge win on the road vs. S Ill. Nevada is very close to being a lock if they lose.
So that is 54 locks; 24 teams fighting for 11 bubble spots.
In: Cincinnati, Colorado, NC-W, Miss St, AF, Cal, Ala, Syracuse, S Ill, UAB, Md
Last 4 out: Houston, Arkansas, Utah St, UAB
4 comments:
I am not sure if this will end up as a double post, so I'll make it sure.
If Mike Jones can keep the terps offense in games, and play better defense, I wouldn't mind watching them in the tourney. We are still weak at PG and Jones is offensively inconsistent.
I think Tennessee is a dangerous team. I picked UConn preseason and still expect them to win the whole thing.
Penn lost to Columbia on Friday, as I picked Yale to beat Dartmouth and lost that.
Also, I agree with your comments on Gonzaga, but I think there Offense could keep them in games in the tourney.
Opposite that for GW, there defense will keep them in games.
Regarding Maryland: those are 2 big ifs. When was the last time this team played better on defense? It seems to be getting worse and worse.
Gonzaga: They don't have the supporting cast like they used to. Remember the good old days, with Turiaf, Stepp, and others (whom I should know but can't recall now?)
Gonzaga truly is a one-man team.
The offense is good, yes - but they can't stop anyone. That will kill them, as it has the last few years.
I am tired of the terps giving up double digit 3-pointers and double digit offensive rebounds in the same game. I don't now what happen to the defense?
I am assuming that Ravio and Bautista haven't been offensively effective because early on I thought they were both solid. I don't watch the zags that much.
Morrison being a junior is just sick.
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