Quick Iowa Post

OK, the caucuses are tonight. The only sure thing for tonight is that there will be a surprise - either someone is overrated now or someone will come out of the blue for a surprise showing.

The current thoughts are:
- On the D side, it's a three way race between Obama, Edwards and Clinton. No one else is close.
- Edwards has to win to stay alive. He's got so much invested here; if he comes in 2nd or 3rd, it's just about over. If he can't win here, where?
- Obama needs to be Hillary, whether it is for 1st-2nd or 2nd-3rd. This shows he is a viable option to Hillary.
- Hillary needs to be close,preferably 1st or 2nd. This is her worst state - if she can weather this storm, she's fine. If she finishes a distant 3rd (like, for instance, Obama 37, Edwards 30, Hillary 25), it may not be the end - but a big shakeup is needed and Obama is now the national frontrunner.

On the R side:
- It's a two man race for first between Romney and Huckabee, and an important race for 3rd.
If Romney wins, you will never see Huckabee again.
If Huckabee wins in a squeaker, Huckabee gains some momentum but Romney stays in the game as a possible moderate option to the religious Huckabee.
If Huckabee wins by 5 or more over Romney, Romney will lose all momentum and McCain/Guiliani will get his support.

Who gets third?
If Thompson, his campaign is revitalized and it is possible he can win (dream scenario for him: Huckabee 35, Romney 22, Thompson 17....)
If McCain, he can now be seen as the option vs. Huckabee
I guess there is a possibility that Paul could come in 3rd (like....Huckabee 37, Romney 29, Paul 15, McCain 13...). If so, that means it is a two man race between Huckabee and Romney.

If one of those two - McCain or Thompson - fall behind Paul, that's a problem.

One law of politics to watch out for: every four years, a candidate (Obama, Paul) banks on support from "the youth" or "the first-time participants". The support never materializes. I saw this firsthand with Dean in 2004 ("All the college kids are energized for him!). What did it get him? 3rd.

If people say turnout is very very high, then Obama wins (and may win easily).
If turnout is mediocre, taht helps Hillary (and Edwards).