Political Update

OK, where to start after a groundbreak South Carolina Primary?

1. Let's start with the Democrats. The strategy for team Clinton has been exposed - somehow frame Obama as the "black" candidate after the win is SC; by doing this you make the old-line Democrats feel uncomfortable voting for him...and therefore have them reluctantly vote for Hillary.
Proof: Team Clinton is effectively comparing Obama's win to Jesse Jackson's win in 1984 and 1988 in SC. He was widely considered a miorntiy bloc candidate. It's hard to envision any union leader (who may be white) supporting Jackson; Hillary is trying to subconsciously put that analogy in the union leader's brain this time. And yes, this is subtle racism at its finest.

But will the plan work? Two things re going against them:
1) The media - and other analysts - are calling it like it is. I think the Clinton's may have been counting on a protective veil around them - the media won't truly call them out for this, will they? - but they are. Chris Matthews, among others, are doing it. This subtle racist strategy is being attacked publicly. This has to be unexpected.
2) Ted Kennedy.
Look, if anyone represents the old guard of the Democratic party, it's him. The Democartic party of the 1980s which included labor, ethnics and low-middle-class economic voters all joined together under a Kennedy-led liberalism (that ultimately failed). (Remember, there weren't too many limosine liberals back then - they are more popular now (think George Soros)). But that wing and alliance is still very strong, especially in a Democratic party.
To have Ted support Obama is a landmark statement by this old lion. Ted is envisioning that the old guard can get back together again under Obama. I have no idea if he has a personal vendetta against the Clintons - but he stuck a fork in the back of the Clinton legacy with this statement today.

I think that endorsement may have been the turning point of the Democratic primary.

For the Republicans:

Rudy's strategy may have seemed sound at the beginning - but now it just seemes foolish and naive. The original strategy was to skip the first 4 contests, then swoop in after about a month and win a big state over a crowded, fractured field and - voila! - get carried to the nomination.

But one month is an eternity in politics. The media - and the party leaders - will not allow a vacuum for that long. One person - or possibly two - will be named the frontrunner regardless of circumstances. In this case, the wisdom is that McCain is a flawed frontrunner with Romney having a good chance in Super Tuesday and beyond.

The storyline is now set after the first few primaries - there is no room (or even precendent) for a Giuliani-type story, a candidate literally coming from nowhere. This is a candidate who has finished 6th in a few primaries, behind nutjob Ron Paul. (I kid, I kid! really!....well, no not really...)

Give Rudy an A for an original game plan, but this is like joining a craps table with $50 when the table limit has already been raised from $5 to $15. Should have been here at 9 am, Rudy.