I want to present a few facts that came out this week and then - drawing from those facts - try to come to some logical conclusions.
Fact 1: The current congress is at a 14% Approval rating, the lowest rating Congress has ever gotten (lower than the previous lows in 1991-1994).
Fact 2: Immigration: A Zogby poll taken shows that approval of congressional handling of the immigration issue is at 3%. Three! That's like a ratings number for the NHL on NBC! (was that zing really needed? - editor) Sure - now Derek knows how low that is!
(By the way, Bush's rating on the issue are triple that of congress! Triple! Goooo Bush!
Fact 3: Immigration is rated as the second-most pressing issue in the country, behind the war in Iraq.
Now, Eric's conclusion:
How can anyone who a) is in congress now, and b) is in favor of the immigration bill be seriously considered as a legitimate threat for office? Let's say a person is in congress now - so he/she is part of that14% approval rating - and votes in favor of the current bill. How unpopoular can that person be?
Yet that is the situation where Hillary, Barack, and McCain find themselves. Do they not see that they are killing themselves by supporting W, Kennedy and others in this legislation? You have people on all sides of the aisle either running away or rethinking this bill:
- Saxby Chambliss, R from GA
- Kay Bailey Huchinson, R from TX
- Laura's boyfriend Jim Webb, D from VA - is strongly rethinking and will vote no.
- Jon Tester, D from MT and Claire McCaskill, D from MO - two democratic freshmen from red states - are voting no. Sherrod Brown, D from OH is leaning no as well, another freshman.
The more this goes on, the more I am convinced that NO member of the current Congress has a chance to win in 2008. Congress is SO unpopular now - and it's both sides of the aisle - that they can't overcome that stigma to win.
Thnk of it another way. Let's say a member of congress who is running now - oh, I don't know, with initials H.C. or B.O. says:
"Look, I'm sick of Washington and the way it's being run by George Bush, Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid. I am so tired of it that I am resigning my post in disgust."
Would that statement help or hurt their campaigns? I submit that it can't hurt at all.
So who are among the candidates that are NOT part of Congress that could win in 08:
Democrats: I see two serious people:
- John Edwards (no, he can't win)
and the big Kahuna
- Al Gore. Wow. This is setting up well for him, if he chooses to run.
Republicans: Well, there are the already-declared non-Congressional candidates:
- Giuliani and Romney
and probably
- Fred Thompson
but there is one more wild card out there:
- Newt.
In short, explain to me how - if current Congressional approval doesn't improve - a current Congressional member can be elected.
4 comments:
One stat you mention really concerns me. Why is Bush's approval triple that of Congress when he backs the Kennedy bill?
The one thing I'm happy about on the immigration issue is that people are hopefully now understanding that this is not about jobs. Yes, the majority of immigrants work jobs that really no one wants to work, but its about the drain on our tax system. Its about criminals running free that don't belong in our country. And most importantly its about these politicans using the illegal immigrants as a pawn for future votes. It is pathetic.
Now onto your real question of who will win. I agree that a current congressional member won't win the presidency, but they can win their party's primary. Hilary vs. Newt would be a media's wet dream.
But if Guiliani can make it out of the primary I think he will bet either Hilary or Obama.
Ummm...what is triple 3%? I was being a bit sarcastic about Bush's rating.
I understand that sir. I'm still confused though that people would rate him higher, despite it being his bill. And they would rate Congress lower despite some of them fighting against the bill.
Well, I don't really think there is a statistical difference in Bush's ratings vs. Congress ratings. When you are talking 3% vs. 9%, that's about the percentage of crazy people in the US! As kausfiles.com says,
"That is getting down near the percentage who think their automatic garage door is sending them semaphore signals from outer space. "
I certainly think that 10% of the population agree with that statement.
Anyway, kausfiles.com is a great website for immmigration talk. It's an immigration bill blog, 24/7!
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