Last weeks' posts

I want to take two things that were posted last week to dissect it a little further.

1. RRD posted that he was excited that Bloomberg would run for President. Now, please don't be offended when I say this, because you are not the first to state what you did, but WTF????? Please tell me what he has done as the Mayor of New York? I have read two articles about him and it was shocking that he would actually think about running? Below are some of the so called highlights of his political career:

• Has successfully continued Giuliani's pro-development boom and crime crack down.
• Lowest unemployment in 30 years, but yet he has the highest homeless rate during the same time.
• Increased spending and overhauled the education system. Reading scores have increased, but Math has decreased. Graduation rates have inched up slightly, but still is still hovering at 50% over the past four years.
• Removed power from the Board of Education and centralized the education system under himself at the beginning of his term, but has since returned power after failed attempts to reform.
• Only recent progress made on Ground Zero
• Failed attempt for a publicly funded stadium plan when he wanted to raise the property tax to record levels. At this point his approval rating was 24%. Oh, and he lost out on the Olympics if that makes a difference.
• Beat his Democrat rival for Mayor by spending $124 million of his own money compared to $24 million by his rival.
• Huge blunders when dealing with city disasters. In 06, there was a blackout in Brooklyn, where 100,000 people were without power for a week. The subway system had some broken switches that had burned out and he agreed that it would take months to fix and would cause massive delays. Only after a major public outcry, did he then come out and state that it could be fixed in a matter of weeks.

With this all being said, he currently has an approval rating of 70%. The articles go on to state that he has some strange ability to pass blame and separate himself from the problems. New Yorkers state that he is at least trying to fix some of the problems, while not holding him accountable. The articles also state that his huge donations ($140 million) to over 800 institutions and groups help his approval rating. Art programs, minority groups, libraries, and the GOP just to name a few. It seems to me that he is buying this job approval and not earning it. When Perot ran as an independent, he had several important issues that he ran on. What is Bloomberg going to run on that will stand out from his rivals?

2. Now onto the more important subject, Prop bets. Eric posted his prop bets for his highest score.

Highest single hole on Eric's card (and there are some holes that can really do a number here!)(207) 5 +300(208) 6 +120(209) 7 +140(210) 8 +260(211) 9 or over +450.

Now, I talked to him about this already, but why does he have all + odds on his prop numbers. He first stated that it is like horse racing, and that was quickly shot down. Horse racing is para mutual, so of course there is always going to be + odds. I went onto explain that the purpose of props is so that the house can win money. Eric then went onto explain that if we use simple probability of what he is going to score, then the lines are correct since he is taking a sizable house advantage on each prop. That is true, but I don't think that he is taking enough. Now, if we all know that during Eric's last two playoff rounds Eric's highest score was a 6, then he must take an even larger house advantage on this. And if Eric believes that the 6 has the highest probability of happening, then he must take an even greater house advantage on this. The purpose of a handicapper when setting an initial line is not to get even money on either side, but to set it appropriately based on the information that he knows. After the initial line is set, then it is up to him and the house to decide if they want to even out the money. So we know the majority of the public's money will be on the 6, since the public loves to over-react to simple information so he needs to set this number at -110 or even worse. If the money continues to come in on the 6 he then needs to lower it some more. Now what Eric knows that the public does not know is that he played this course before and scored an 8. So if he wants to trick the public on betting the 6 then his line is somewhat correct, but I still think it is too high.

Wiz, is there anyone that you know that can comment on this? Can we have a guest handicapper to come in and look at this?