Jan 21, 2007

NFL Championship Picks: The Remington Super Bowl

I don't think I've agonized as much on any games as these two games. Here we go, with help from my (imaginary) editor:

New Orleans at Chicago: I've gone round and round on this one. At first thought, I was less than impressed with Chicago's defense against Seattle. That performance, plus a few down the stretch, led me to conclude that the Bears' D was overrated. So I was leaning toward the Saints until...
I realized that this is a dome team on the road in a Championship team. No dome team has ever won a Championship game outdoors on the road. Are the Saints really that good to overcome that jinx? And how would that offense perform outdoors? I just can't see the Saints scoring many points outside. So that leads me to pick...

(ed: um, Eric?)

Yes?

(ed: what about that 42 point game at Dallas on Dec 10?)

That doesn't count. Texas Stadium is very much like a dome.

(ed: OK - what about that 31-7 win over the Giants at the Meadowlands on 12/24?)

That doesn't count either. It was team implosion, the Giants.

(ed: Ok - but they scored 31 at Pittsburgh on Nov 12)

That was when Pittsburgh was sucking.

(ed: Are you going to ignore all the evidence?)

OK - let's see what teams shut the Saints down this year on the road? It was:
- Carolina in week 4, who limited the Saints to 18 points in a must win game for the Panthers, and
- lookee here! Cleveland in week 1, who held the Saints juggernaut to only 19 points.

(ed: Must you always bring the Browns into your playoff game preview?)

Of course!

(ed: But the point stands - not since Oct 1 have the Saints scored less than 20 points on the road).

No matter! I just cannot, cannot see the Saints getting more than 20 today. If they can't, they lose, since the Saints D is not good enough to completely shut the Bears down.

Bears 23, Saints 14.

New England at Indy: I never had a game where I could see a blowout on either side, or a close game on either side. Indy is more talented, by far. And week 9 where Indy dominated NE is exhibit A for the Colts. But I have this nagging feeling that Belichick deliberately held something back that game, anticipating a future rematch like this.

But I just can't see how the NE secondary can stop Peyton and all his weapons IN THE DOME. How in the world do the cover Harrison, Wayne, Clark, Utecht, etc.? I can't answer that.

(ed: Eric?)

Oh boy. Yes?

(ed: So, just to recap, you are betting against Belichick and Brady for the 2nd week in a row?)

Yes, but

(ed: And you realize that bettors don't have success going against them?)

I know, but

(ed: And you are asking Peyton to cover in a big game, the same Peyton who hasn't won a big game since, oh, the 1990 JV Championship for Isidore Newman HS?)

Well...

(ed: it's your money...)

Indianapolis 31, New England 20.


And that brings us to the Remington Super Bowl. You thought I meant Remington, like the razor and Victor Kiam? No - be prepared for two weeks of the heated Chicago-Indianapolis rivalry. Ground Zero in this rivalry is the small town of Remington, IN, located exactly between Chicago and Indianapolis on I-65. I'm sure Bob Costas, Mike Greenberg and Gus Johnson will visit this town before February 5.

(PS - I-65 is just off the map to the west of the satellite photo shown here)

Best bets:
Last week: Eric 2-4, overall 145-129-8
Derek: 1-2; overall: 126-133-1.

We'll pick all 4 today:
Bears -3
Bears/NO under 43
Indy -3.5
Indy/NE Over 47

2 comments:

dzahn07 said...

Just going with the trends. Pats and the Bears. Dome teams suck in the Championship games on the road and Peyton is going to have to prove something to me before I put money on him. Oh, and the under in the Pats game.

neild said...

Quick question for all you gamblers. Is there a website which will give me the lines on the super bowl prop bets?