Been extremely busy over the last two days and I just saw the Red Sox trade. Then I read the BSG article and was disappointed again by his analysis. So here is my take....
First, what are the expectations in Boston on this trade? Are they expecting that Lowell returns to his old form and Beckett will stay healthy and continue to pitch like he did Florida? If so, then there will be plenty of disappointed fans next year. But if they expect that Beckett will win 15 games with a 4.00+ ERA with Lowell batting .275 with 20 homers, I think they will be pleasantly surprised.
Both of these guys I really like due to my fantasy baseball ties, so its hard for me not to think like a Red Sox fan right now and declare that both of these guys will return to their prior levels, but people seem to be blinded by some obvious facts here. Let's forget about Lowell and the prospect first and let's talk about Beckett. I love Beckett. I love what he did to the Yanks. I love his high K rate. But what I don't like is his inability to get through a season. He always gets injured. Period. You can't look past this. Why are people looking past this? The Yanks did this with Jaret Wright last year and they got burned. Next is the league change. With Beckett, I wouldn't be surprised to see him post 10-15 wins, but that will probably come along with a 4.00+ ERA. That Florida ballpark is crazy for a pitchers. Why hasn't anyone said more about this? And why isn't it fair to compare Beckett to Pavano? Pavano pitched in the same park and then came over to the AL and his ERA shot up. So I'm going on record here to say that Beckett will post a 4.33 ERA and 12 wins while going on the 15 day DL once and then missing a couple of starts here and there. For Lowell, I think he will start out extremely hot and then go ice cold during the second half of the year for a total of 25 HRs and a .260 BA.
And as far as the prospect goes? Who cares. I agree with the BSG on this. When you have a $120-$130 million payroll and you have some depth in the minors, trade a prospect for two guys that if the best case scenario plays out, they could be back in the World Series.
3 comments:
I'm heading out the door right now to check out our new office building (lets just say the Pyramids were probably build quicker than this 1500 SQFT office), but I had to comment.
First of all I LOVE the trade. Hanley Ramirez is very highly regarded, he's a huge talent and I saw him play twice at AA. The AA pitcher they gave up is also a nice prospect, but Ramirez was the key to the deal. However, what is more scarce - a "stud" positional prospect who has proven nothing, as well as a AA pitcher who was the fourth rated in the organization (behind Papelbon, Lester and Hansen). Or an under 26 pitcher who won a World Series MVP on the biggest stage possible?? C'mon, its not even close, you make that deal ASAP just in case the Marlins GM has a siezure and is somehow unable to sign the paperwork to make it official.
I don't think that Pavano and Wright are good comparison's because neither had produced on the big stage (Wrights success was before a boatload of injuries and seem like five decades ago - just ask Eric). Also both had a bunch of arm injuries, Beckett had a little shoulder tendonitis, and blisters, but his arm has mostly been sound for his whole career - big difference. Every pitcher carries risk, so of course he could blow out in April, but thats like taking a bad beat on the river when you were a 3 to 1 favorite. It happens.
Of course they also had to take the corpse that is Mike Lowell and his 9 million per year contract. However, remember that Beckett is only making $5 mill this year. If he gets 15 - 20 wins and is ready for the postseason, then he would be worth 12 to 14 million (in todays market). So add up Lowell's 9 million, with Beckett and you pretty much have a wash for value. Of course if Lowell gives you 25 HR and hits .260, then you are coming out even better on the value scale. The flip side is Beckett gets hurt, Lowell is on the pine hitting .210 - but why ruin my Turkey with that thinking???
This was a great move, Beckett will probably not make 35 starts, but if he gets 28 to 30 starts and grabs 15 wins it is a steal. Projecting to the future they have Beckett (26 next yr), Papelbon (25) and Lester (22) to build their rotation around - thats pretty decent.
I didn't say it was a bad trade, since what you gave up seemed pretty light compared to the upside that you got from Florida. I would of done the same thing, but I was concerned with all the hype on Beckett.
You are parlaying the hype on Beckett by comparing him to Pavano which is not a good comparison. Pavano got hurt just about every season with a myriad of shoulder and elbow problems. In fairness, he did actually pitch decent in the 03 playoffs (although I think it may have been out of the pen?? I can't remember, but I totally dismissed his playoff contributions in my earlier post). So while neither has pitched 220+ innings, Pavano's injury history is much worse than Beckett's since Beckett's injuries haven't involved his arm. The same thing with Jaret Wright. I also think the hype is coming from a lot of people feeling that at 26 yrs old he is just beginning to hit his stride and enter the prime of his career.
I'll go on record as taking the under with your 4.33 ERA assessment as Fenway isn't quite as bad a pitcher's park as you think. There are spots that you can pitch to (straight away center and right center), you just have to be very careful not to miss those spots, especially when coming inside to RH. I don't expect him to post a sub 2.50 ERA with 300+ Ks, thats insane. But if he can put up 15+ W, 3.50-ish ERA while being healthy at the end (when it matters), then they'll have a great trade. BTW, if Lowell hits .260 with 25 HR with GG-style defense I'd be completely giddy. But I'll take the under on both of those numbers - I think the guy is totally done. Hopefully not.
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