NFL Picks week 11

When I pick these games, I don't look at the line - I make the pick and then see where the discrepancies are.
It was scary this week how close I was to the actual over/under. That means I'm getting close to being a great predictor, or (more likely) no one has any clue what is going to happen.

Was 27,Oak 17. I think last week's loss will fire Washington up, as they win easy at home.

Dal 33, Det 13. Harrington may look good at home vs. Arizona, but not on the road at Dallas. (sorry, Dave!)

Cle 17, Mia 13. Cle is 0-3 versus good competition (Cin, @Pit, @Ind) and 3-3 versus the bottom half of the league (W vs Chi, Ten, GB; L to Det, Hou, Bal). They have 4 more games vs. the dregs (Mia, @Oak, @ Min, Bal), and 3 vs. good competition (Jax, @ Cin, Pit). I think they can steal one vs. the good guys (Jax) and split versus the dregs - that's 6-10.

Stl 31, Arz 16. Warner may get up for this game, but his team (especially the D) is plain bad.

Pit 13, Bal 10. Who the hell knows. Maddox! Boller! The NFL on CBS! This was supposed to be the national 4:15 game on CBS, but they wised up 3 weeks ago and switched the times with the Ind-Cin game.

Ten 20, Jax 17. Upset of the week. Jax just doesn't impress me. They struggled to beat Houston - and this is a playoff caliber team?

NYG 28, Phi 13. OK, NOW the Giants prove themselves as a great home team. Eli can't have 2 terrible games in a row at home, can he? (Don't answer that.)

NE 31, NO 16. I'm sorry, I think NO is terrible. Yes, NE has no pass defense, but this is Aaron Brooks we are talking about. And Brady & co will use this game as practice to hone their offensive skills.

Chi 19, Car 16. I think this is a kitchen sink game for the Bears; they are out to prove to the world they are for real.

TB 26, Atl 20. Atlanta is very overrated; TB has some sort of offense (espcially a running offense).

Sea 27, SF 9. Shaun, Shaun and more Shaun.

Ind 28, Cin 27. This will be a classic; Peyton wins the game with a a last-minute TD. A old fashioned shoot-out.

SD 27, Buf 13. JP will make some mistakes, the Chargers take advantage, it will be a hefty does of LT and some Gates, and SD will control the ball for 40 minutes.

Den 30, NYJ 10. This one seems tooooooo easy. (I can see it now: What an upset! final: NYJ 21, Den 20.)

KC 20, Hou 17. Maybe KC is a tad overrated, and Hou is playing a little better. (They just needed that jump start vs. the Browns! OK, don't laugh).

GB 20, Min 17. The talent isn't there on either team, but this will be a great game, with a Longwell FG at the end to win.

Best bets: 19 of them. Last week: a terrbile 6-10-1; overall: 85-76-8

Was -6
Dal -8
Dal/Det Over 39
StL -9
Pit/Bal under 33
Ten +4
NYG -7
NE -9.5
Chi +3
TB +6
TB/Atl Over 39
Sea -13
Sea/SF under 42 1/2
Cin +5.5
Ind/Cin Over 47 1/2
Den -13
Hou +7
Hou/KC Under 43 1/2
GB/Min Under 44