Woman President? Not so fast

I've been thinking about the question of us having a woman president soon. My conclusion is that if it is not Hillary, it's going to be a long while - maybe something like 2030 - until the US is ready to elect a woman.

The reason is simple - our political parties have no high-profile woman officeholders coming up the pipeline that can be seriously called presidential. The parties work very much like baseball teams, with state and local offices being the "minor leagues". Those positions weed out the inferior candidates and the best of the best survive to hold congressional seats and governors.

Most, if not all, of our presidential nominees had experience as either Senators or Governors, or (in rare cases, like George HI Bush) held the Vice Presidency. I can't think of a major nominee whose only experience was a Representative. W, Kerry, Gore (who was a senator), Clinton, Dole, HI Bush, Dukakis, Mondale, Reagan, Carter.....

So that limits the field of who could actually legitimately run for and win the Presidency. I believe that the president in 2008, 2012, 2016 and 2020 is someone we have heard of today, and is holding office today. I know there are counterexamples (like Bush today, who advanced quickly up the chain due to his name, and Carter, who was the beneficiary of an extraordinary political time), but I believe my thought is more the rule.

So - where are we today in terms of women? Where are they in the roles that are traditionally stepping stones to the Presidency?

Let's look at Senators, first.
The Democrats:
Hillary (NY): the only one with the gravitas and the experience to be able to serve. You can make your own judgement on this one.
Boxer and Feinstein (CA): Sorry, but I think the nation is not ready for a liberal California senator to be president. Just the geography of it does not make sense.
Lincoln (AR): Not sure; has not done much in the senate in the past 4 years to make any sort of name for herself.
Landrieu (LA): Won a tough reelection, and is a great campaigner. This is a possibility, since she has crossed over and can't be called a liberal; however, for that reason, she may be un-nominatable in the current Democratic party.
Stabenow (MI): No. Sorry.
Mikulski (MD): I hate to say it, but you have to look presidential to be considered. That's why Steve Forbes isn't our president. And she doesn't seem to have any need to go for higher office.
Murray and Cantwell (WA): Both are considered political lightweights. No.

The Republicans:
Hutchison (TX): Her time has come and gone. She is actually talking about retiring.
Dole (NC): We've sampled this plate, thank you. No.
Murkowski (AK): When you win your first election under charges of favoritism from your father, the governor, then you have a LONG way to go. And it is Alaska - no.
Snowe, Collins (ME): Too moderate for the main party. No.

So outside of Hillary, I think there are no serious candidates for the Presidency from the Senate. What about governors?

Democrats:
Miner (DE): no.
Granholm (MI): has the looks and the charisma, but was born in Canada. Ineligible.
Blanco (LA): Not after Katrina.
Sebelius (KS), Napolitano (AZ): Two democrats who were elected in red states. Two to watch out for.

Republicans:
Martz (MT): No.
Lingle (HI): See Murkowski above, without the favoritism charge. It's Hawaii, for goodness sake!
Walker (UT): No.
Rell (CT): No.

In the future, there are two here to watch out for - Kathleen Sebelius and Janet Napolitano. However, they are at least 8 years off, if not more.

I exclude Condi Rice since I think you need to have some sort of elective office experience in order to run.

In the long term future, there are probably several candidates that are in the House now (or in statehouses somewhere) that have bright futures. Two I can think of offhand are Anne Northrup (R-Ky), who has been consistently elected in a marginal Louisville district for the past 10 years, and Shelly Moore Capito (R-WV), who probably would have ran for the Senate if cryogenic Robert Byrd decided to retire - he did not, so she's waiting her time. Both of those ladies have a Senate seat waiting for them (McConnell's in KY, Byrd or Rockefeller in WV) if they choose to enter. But as I said, that's a long way off.
And I'm sure there are a few Democratic women house members that are elected in toss-up or red states, although I can't think of any offhand. Herseth in SD?

So - I'm sure I bored you with this analysis - but the bottom line is if Hillary doesn't win in 08, I think it will be at least 2016 until we see a serious credible woman candidate for the Presidency, and I think the best guess on who that could be is either Kathleen Sebelius or Janet Napolitano.