Super Tuesday Thoughts

I'm not sure if I know how to figure out and analyze the possible results from Tuesday's primaries. I guess I'll lean on Chris Matthews ("Eric's on vip.com again! We will have Pat Buchannan, Tim Russert, Pat Gaddell, H. Ross Perot and Angela Lansbury on to analyze! Let's play Hardball!") to help interpret what may happen on Tuesday.

Here are the states involved in Tuesdays's voting:
AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, GA, ID, IL, KS (Dem), MA, MN, MO, MT (Rep), NM(Dem), NY, ND, OK, TN, UT, WV (Rep).

But my early thoughts:

Democrats:
Tuesday may cloud things up even further for them instead of providing a clear winner. I think there are only two possible outcomes:
- The Obama train crashes, and Hillary is seen as the clear frontrunner and the nomination is all but assured;
- Obama wins CA, most of the south, and some key bellweather states (like MO); this means the Dem nomination is truly 50/50 and this will last well into March.

I can't see a scenario where Obama emerges as a clear leader. Hillary will win some states (NY, for one) with a lot of delegates; she already has the "super delegates" on her side.... so I can't see an Obama clean sweep. Hillary should win states like NY, CT, DE, and MA (?); Obama should win the south - so it comes down to states like CA, MO, TN, MT and others to prove Obama's national electability. If he wins 2 or 3 of those, it proves he can win nationally, and we are in a true tug of war - and this will last a while (which, of course, is good news for the Republicans).

Republicans
Well, can Romney win a big state where he doesn't have a clear hometown advantage? He has said he is "tied" with McCain, since:

McCain has won NH, SC and FL, while
Romney has won WY, NV and ME.

Um.....whatever.

I saw some polling where Romney has pulled into a dead heat in California. How? Because this is a closed primary - where only Republicans can vote. The talk radio hosts are all behind Romney and will play a big part in influencing the core voters in those states.

So, in non-southern states, can Romney win a big one, like CA? That's the question. If not, it's clearly over.

What about the South? Well, this is where the presence of Huckabee plays a part. Without Huckabee, Romney would have a shot a sweeping the south. BUt with Huckleberry hound here, the vote can be split three ways - so don't be surprised if McCain wins GA, TN, Al or something like that.
But what if the religious conservatives get smart, and get behind Romney for practical purposes? Then this race could become competitive again. Watch the southern states- if McCain wins any, that means the 3-way race benefits him. IF Romney sweeps, then look out......

(Chris Matthews has conjectured that McCain has promised Huckabee something if Huck would just stay in the race for a while...... maybe a VP position? Ugh. I like McCain, but a McCain - Huckabee ticket would be..........I don't know.....like cough medicine? We will call in the Formula 44D ticket if that happens.)