NCAA Review, 3/2

What a wonderful time of the year. Conference tourneys are starting in earnest today - which means 11 straight days of tournament action leading up to selection Sunday - and then Vegas will be here.

Here's the picture for the tournament as of this morning:

A-10: 1 lock - GW. No bubble teams at all here.
ACC: 4 locks (Duke, BC,NC, NC St.), 1 bubble - Fla St. What a win last night; that may have done it for the Noles; however, the committee may punish them for that horrid out-of-conference schedule - schedule strength of #318!!!
A-Sun, A-East: 1 each
B-10: 6 locks (Ohio St, Iowa, Ill, Mich, Mich St, Wisc), 1 bubble - Ind with 2 wins (home vs Mich St, away vs Pur) have played their way into the tourney for now.
(Although the Mich St win is nothing to write home about - they are now 7-7 are will be severly overrated in the tourney. I see them in an 8-9 game:
(8) Mich St. vs. (9) Missouri St
with the line being Mich St -4.5
and I will be licking my chops.
B-12: 3 locks, 2 bubble. Tex A&M win last night over Texas puts them in the mix, but their profile is still weak. Colorado has to win 2 games in the B-12 tourney for a chance.
B-East: 7 locks (we'll put Syracuse there), 2 bubble, SH and Cinci. Is a home win vs. Cin good enough to put Seton Hall in, after their recent slide? I say no.
B-West, Big South, Big Sky: 1 each
C-USA: 1 lock, 2 bubble (UAB, Houston). I can't see UTEP getting in with 0 top 50 wins; UAB doesn't have one either - but if they can beat Memphis this week, the Blazers will be in.
Colonial: 1 lock, 2 bubble. G Mason is in; NC_Wilmington (RPI #38) is probably in if they get to the finals, and Hofstra (#40) still has an outside shot. IT's possible that 3 can come from this conference.
Horizon, Ivy: 1 each
MAC, MAAC, MEAC, Mid-Con: 1 each
Missouri Valley: what a mess. Northern Iowa, everyone's darling, is now the #6 seed in the tourney - unfortunately, they will be playing a red hot Missouri St team. Wichita St and Missouri St and probably in; Crieghton is too; Northern Iowa should be in even with a loss (although that 1-5 record in the last 6 will hurt, but they have SEVEN top 50 wins - compare that to Syracuse's 2 or Boston College's 2 or Air Force/UAB 0 ). Which leaves us Southern Illinois (RPI 43) and Bradley (RPI 46). It is conceivable that this conference may get all 6, but I will say 5 for now, with Southern getting the shaft.
Mountain West: no locks, 3 bubbles: SD St (the leader, RPI 52), Air Force (RPI 40) and a hot BYU (RPI 56). Two combined top 50 wins. Should the regular season champ of a top 10 conference get in (which is San Diego St) without the tourney win? Can a team like Air Force (overall SOS is 155, non-conference 273) just plod along, win the games they should, lose the one they should, and be 21-5 - get rewarded? BYU is the hottest team - 9-1 in their last 10 - with wins over SD St and Air Force in the last month. We will see. The weakness of the bubble may help them.
Northeast, OVC: 1 each
Patriot: I think Bucknell is in, no matter what.
Pac-10: Pretty clear; we'll put Cal in to make it 4 locks, 0 bubbles.
SEC: This is clear as well - 6 locks now (Tenn, Fla, LSU,Ala, Ark, Kentucky). Everyone has done enough. No bubbles here.
Sun Belt: Western Kentucky has an outside shot as an at-large if they stumble; I want to see the Hilltopper mascot in the big dance. I love that guy.
Southern, Southland, SWAC: 1 each
WAC: Nevada is in as a lock; Utah St (57) and La Tech (70) have outside chances.
WCC: Gonzaga, of course, is in.

That means we have:
57 locks:
8 bubble teams that are in: Fla St, Cinci, Indiana, NC-Wilmington, Tex AM, N Iowa, Bradley, and....Air Force, I guess.
bubble teams out: the rest of the ACC, Seton Hall, Hofstra, Colorado, S Illinois, BYU, Utah St, La Tech, Houston, UTEP.

Last four in, I think, are: Bradley (last), NC-Wilmington, Fla St, and Air Force.

The thing to watch this week are the conference tournaments involving lock teams; if Gonzaga, Nevada, Bucknell, GW, etc. go down, this means one less spot will be available for the bubble teams - so we starting crossing the above teams off one by one.