Many people say that the tournament at Augusta starts on Sunday on the 10th tee. I disagree. I think the 7th hole is where the pressure starts to mount and where the players are first fully tested. The 7th is where we start to figure out who is for real and who just got lucky for the first 6 holes.
Maybe it's because of the CBS TV coverage - where for many years, TV coverage on Saturday and Sunday was only limited to 3 hours - so the 7th was really the first hole that TV viewers got to see many golfers play.
It's a tight par 4 that now requires an accurate drive to thread the trees. What's left is a mid iron to a very narrow, sloped green that is well bunkered. A par is a good score - and it will punish any off line shots for those not on their games.
Think about it. You come out of commercial - and Jim Nantz tells you "Let's go to 7 - here is Justin Rose, making an early move...he's -3 thru the first 6. " And then whack - into the trees. He's done. You know it, Nantz knows in, Feherty knows it. The 7th is the first test for these pretenders. Rose is on his way to a 6, and you don't worry about him again.
It works the other way as well...."Here's Shingo Katayama with a delicate downhill putt.....and it's in! He's now 2 back!" Now you unconsciously consider him a contender.
The most appropriate equivalent hole for the 7th at Augusta is the 7th at Blue Ash. A medium length, tight hole - it requires a good drive. The 7th at Blue Ash has one fairway bunker - a bunker that I hit 6 straight times in 2006-07 that it is now known as the Zahn bunker.
(I made par from there 4 out of 6 times, however, much to the dismay of Don).
So - this is the week to separate the leaders from the possible contenders. Which teams at 4-2, 3-3, 3-2 will birdie and go up the leaderboard -and which will mess up here and not be heard from again on the telecast? This is a crucial week for Stephen Ames-like and Scott Verplank-like teams, such as Dallas, San Diego, Green Bay, NY Jets, Arizona, and Philly.
NE 34, TB 13. Will Belicheck be comfortable enough to run up the score for the Brits in London? I say yes. They will see more points here than in a season of Aston Villa games.
(Ha! I kill me....)
Ind 34, StL 19. St Louis can move the ball - I predict a couple of garbage touchdowns here for the Rams in the 4th quarter.
Pit 26, Min 24. NFL secret #1 that I told you last week: Baltimore's pass defense isn't very good.
Secret #2: Pittsburgh's isn't much better.
SD 22, KC 21. Cracks are showing in the Chargers' armour! LT vs Norv! Offense vs Defense! Will the Broncos clich the division by week 10?
SF 27, Hou 20. Gore is back - the 49ers are on a bye - and the zig-zag theory says the Texans are due for a bad game. This game may not even be this close.
Cle 20, GB 17. If I'm the Packers, I am scared of this game. The Browns play better at home (well, let's be clear - Derek Anderson plays better at home). The Browns are not as bad as they are made out to be (I believe we are 34th in the power rankings) because of our schedule (4 of the last 5 on the road, we've played 5 playoff contenders (2 of them undefeated), and the Browns have not quit/abandoned the coach. Mangini is made out to be the devil because he installs discipline- yet Rex Ryan is now starting to make the Jets run laps in New York and he's regarded as a genius who is bringing tough love at the right time.
Cleveland, though void of talent, will not beat itself. The Packers have weaknesses, and may be looking forward to next week's home game vs. Favre.
NYJ 20, Oak 10. I truly believe that last week represents the best that Oakland can play - and they still only won by 4 over an Eagles team willing to give them the game.
Car 24, Buf 10. Likewise, Buffalo played about as good as they could last week - and won in overtime against a team that threw 6 interceptions. That's not happening again. (you do know that Jake Delhomme is still the QB in Carolina, right? -ed.)
NO 20, Mia 17. Don't you think that Miami's strategy against the Saints will be the same one that almost worked against the Colts?
Atl 23, Dal 17. In Dallas - there's no "there" there. What does Dallas do well? Quickly......
They have no wins of note. They struggle vs. good defenses. I don't see it.
Cin 30, Chi 20. I think Cincinnati is another "zig-zag" team. They will bounce back.
NYG 28, Az 20. No real idea on what will happen here.
Phi 19, Was 16. The last stand for Zorn and the Skins. They will make a game of this.
Best bets: 14 this week. (Last week: 9-6-1; overall: 39-36-1)
NE -15
Ind/StL over 45.5
NE -15
Ind/StL over 45.5
Min +6
KC +5
SF +3
NYJ -6
Car -7
Mia +6
NO/Mia under 47.5
Atl +4.5
Atl/Dal under 48
Cin pk
Chi/Cin over 42.5
Was +7
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