Pre-trip preparations

Well, I became fully loaded for the trip today. It is a special tradition to sign all those travelers checks at the bank - and the suspense involved with them. Will I sign these again on Saturday? When I get back? Or - if things go awful - on Thursday? The bank teller asked as I was signing the travelers checks: "So, where are you and the family going?"

Uh - the family is staying here and going to work and school. Now please give me my money without further chit chat.

I'm so looking forward to this trip. Obviously, a lot of it is the gambling and the group - but a lot is also getting away from any responsibilities for 5 days. Work has been tough, 3 kids is pretty draining, and the winter has taken away from any golf time. It's going to be great to go out there and just have fun.

Been thinking a lot about the size of the bets that I will be doing out there. Let's start with the sports betting. Last year's statstical lesson worked well, I believe. I set aside the amount I could lose for sports bets, did the equation, and came up with teh wager amount. This year - I'm guessing 30-35 "big" sports bets with the same willingness to lose $1500 if things go really bad - like 10-25.

I've tried to think about this and apply to craps and blackjack. I have an advanced craps book which is based on the principle of conservative bettign -you should be very happy with small wins and set small loss limits. He suggests that you:
- pick the amount you will outlay for one roller
- bring 10 times that amount to start
- leave the table when you lose 4 roller's worth ( thus walking away with 60% of your original stake).

The reason why he wants you to do this is the psychological effect of walking away and leaving the casino with something in your pocket. This may apply for a 4-hour trip to Argosy, but for a 5 day trip to Vegas, I don't think this rule should apply for each session. He says it is psychologicall different to go to a table with $200 and lose it all - versus going to a table with $500 and coming back with $300.

He's got a point, but I don't think it's valid here. If you go to a table, outlay $300 , and lose it all - you still should have your Vegas trip bankroll back in your room. You can go get some more.

What would be my starting outlay at craps? Usually, it would be 5 shooter's worth. So - for example:
$5 table: I'd play a $5 pass, $10 odds, $6 6 and 8. That's 15+12 = 27 per shooter, *5 = $135. And that's abot what I take to Belterra/Riverside and the other $5 tables I play. It usually lasts 2 hours or so.
$10: 10 pass, 15 odds, 12 6 and 8: $49 per shooter; $250 outlay. $300 sounds good.
$15: 15 pass, 20 odds, 18 6 and 8: $71 per shooter ----$350-$400 outlay.
$25: 25 pass, 25 odds, 30 6 and 8: $110 per shooter; the one time I played last year I only outlayed $500. I need to go to $600 if we decide to jump in this pool again.

But then I read my blackjack book and found these passages:
"A buy in of 50 bets has a 1% chance of being lost in 300 decisions". I think we can prove that with my formula from last year, with the p of winning being 0.49, and the 1% being 2 standard deviations less than the mean. 300 decisions is roughly 5 hours of playing. (60 decisions per hour)
"A buy-in of 25 bets has a 20% chance of disappearing in 300 decisions".
Hmmmm.....I don't usually follow this rule. $10 table -what do you pull out? I pull out $200 - 20 bets. Not $250.

Then I saw this: "A long term bankroll should be at least 200 times your average bet - a bankroll of 200 bets has less than a 1% chance of disappearing in 2500 decisions".

Wow - I think 2500 decisions is going to cover the Vegas trip. (60 decisions per our in BJ, 40 for Pai Gow, but what for Craps? 80? 100?). 2500 decisions is roughly 40 equivalent hours of BJ - that sounds right for this trip, right?

But do we have bankrolls for 200 times our average - not minimum - bet? Of course not. If a 200x bankroll gives you 1% risk of losing your stake, what about a 100x bankroll? I think we can use the same prinicples and come up with the % risk. I'll work on that in the shower tomorrow, using the glass shower door as the blackboard.....