A blog dedicated to baseball, golf, football, the Terps, politics, pop culture, MTV, game shows, kids, and other ennui.
Mar 31, 2009
Predictions
So as I sit here waiting for the end of the day I thought I would throw up my baseball predictions. Now, I reviewed the last couple of years of predictions and I've come up with one main theme. I'm absolutely terrible predicting who is going to be good, but I'm pretty solid with predicting who is going to be bad. So I think that's what I'm going to stick with this year.
Who will suck?
Brewers: I will give someone $20 if they can tell me off the top of their heads who is their starting rotation? Who will pick up the slack with CC and Sheets gone? And its great to see Trevor Hoffman will be closing for them, except that he will be injured to start the season. I like them to suck so bad that I took the under on their win total of 81.5.
Tigers: Really? 81.5 is the over/under in wins? Vegas is predicting an 8 game improvement? Based on what???? Cabrera and Ordonez will be gone by mid year due to some major financial issues that the Tigers have going on right now. They apparently only sold half of the expected season tickets they were expecting and have a $125 million payroll. I'm not making the mistake twice in a row. This under is as easy as going in 4 X with Jack Ten suited in Ultimate Texas Holdem.
Phillies: Lidge can't repeat his performance from last year, there will be a drop in the Burrell-Ibanez production, and there has to be a world series hangover right? And will the Mets collapse again this season? I'm banking against it. Take the under of 88.5
Padres: Worst team in baseball got even worse this year. They lost Trevor Hoffman, Greene, and a couple of low end starters. How will they not lose 100 games this year. If I believe that, then I have to unload on the under for their win total of 71.5. Right? Mark it up.
Oakland: I won't bet on this, but 82.5 wins is the over/under. That's an 8 win improvement over last year. Hmmm. Is that what Giambi, Cabrera, and Holliday brings to the table? Maybe, but what about the starters? Gone is Harden and Blanton and Duke is shelved for a while. They are replaced by Cahill, Anderson, Braden, Eveland, and Gallagher. That's two rookies anchoring our staff. My hopes are high, but in reality it is not looking so good. Anything will be better than last year where we couldn't get anyone past 1st base for 7 innings and then when we did, we always left them stranded at second. Horrendous.
So I do like the Rangers, Mets, Cincy, White Sox, and the Mariners overs.
Mar 30, 2009
Sports weekend
- Men's Basketball: I was on fire this weekend for gambling. I couldn't do anything wrong. I think I only got two games wrong. I even nailed the MSU money line against Louisville which was very nice. Should be a great Final 4 with a hopeful UConn vs. UNC final.
- Women's Basketball: What a comeback for the Lady Terps. Thought that all was lost for them.
- Golf: I am having the worst year for picking golfers as I'm 117 out of 128. Its come down to poor decisions once I've narrowed it down to two golfers. I have consistently picked the wrong guy. For example, I had Sean O'Hair and Oliver Wilson as my last two golfers for the Arnold Palmer tourney this past weekend. I ended up going with Oliver Wilson, which now that I look back might of been the best thing. If I had O'Hair and had to watch him collapse against Tiger I probably would of burnt down my house out of anger. What an amazing Sunday for Tiger.
- Curling: Watched the ladies semi's matchup of Denmark vs Canada on Sunday after golf. I can watch this all day. Might be my favorite Olympic Sport.
- NBA: I'm really looking forward to the playoffs this year. The East should be very entertaining with the West taking a back seat this year.
Mar 26, 2009
....someone gets hurt
"What happened to you??"
Mar 25, 2009
It's all fun and games until.....
- For God's sake, don't go into work on Wednesday. I was rushing to get out the door by 2 pm so Mike and I could leave for the airport. Wednesday should be spent at home, checking email for 30 minutes, and then leisurely packing.
Discussion #1
So the morning games are about to kick off. There are flat screens located in each of the craps and BJ pits. The BJ's TVs were still on ESPN, and I asked the lady pit boss if she could change the channel over to CBS. "I don't know how to. Its not me. Go over to the craps tables and they can do it." Ok, didn't have a problem with this at all. So I walked over to the craps table and asked the pit boss there if he could change the BJ TVs and not just him, but all of the guys behind the table stopped and just looked at me like I was crazy. "What?" asked one of them. I stated that they lady pit boss had me come over here to ask them to change the channel. Well they all shook their heads in disbelief and one of the guys said "No, she can do it. She has the remote as well."
Then I started to get mad. So I walked back and got a little pissed at the lady pit boss who gave me the traditional poor customer service line that I have fired so many people over. "Its not my problem. I don't have control of it." I would expect that from a dealer, but from a pit boss is unacceptable. Fuck you lady. I was so shocked by her behavior that I just got rude with her after she told me for the 5th fucking time it wasn't her job.
Now I'm not trying to be a complete ass and I would of been understanding if at any point she would of offered to call over to the craps table or said that she would take care of it. But nope. Nothing even close. I don't think I've ever heard a pit boss tell any of us when we've asked them where the cocktail waitress has gone "Its not my problem. I don't have any control of it." Nope. They always state that they will find one for us. Sometimes even make that fake phone call to the cocktail waitress pit saying that table 13 needs some drinks. Either way, most pit bosses make an effort. This one did not.
Couple this along with the obvious omission of cocktail waitresses on the north end BJ and Roulette tables and they are no longer a top of the line casino.
This is why you're fat
Thanks Ariel for the link.
Mar 24, 2009
Ultimate Texas Holdem
some comments and thoughts about the trip.
Palazzo: Boy I really didn't see this coming. What a disappointment. Its obvious how they are handling the poor economy. Cut as many employees as possible. Minimal amount of tables open which jacked up the limits and hardly any drink girls. Great business model but terrible for us.
Ira: Interesting guy. Wiz's friend brought an aggressive style of play to the craps table that I enjoyed. He also brought a weird friend, Peter Paul, who will go down as being one of the creepiest guys I've ever gambled with. The guy was like a horned up 13 year old in a 50 year old man's body. The guy had no clue how to gamble and couldn't retain any info about gambling so you had to explain the same thing over and over. Classic.
Ultimate Texas Holdem: I was thinking that I would play this game for a little bit but Jesus Christ. I played this more than any other game. Wiz and I put in an 8 hour session on Saturday with some major highlights.
- While smoking my first of three cigars, I accidentally burnt an elderly man walking by the table. Wiz thought that I stuck out my cigar and burnt him, while I know that my hand was on the chair and this guy walked into it. Any which way you look at it Grandpa Mosses has a nice little burn mark on his forearm
- After the first hour of playing, I was down nearly $600. I was afraid I wouldn't be able to make the long session, but then I magically hit a straight flush that put me back to even.
- Going into hour number 5, I was getting really hungry and ready to leave. Wiz's friend Ira was playing with us then and had a Pastrami sandwich in a brown bag underneath his chair, which he offered to me to eat. I took a bite and it was amazing. Then everyone else decided to eat off of this massive sandwich in a bag. After all of use finished eating it, the dealer looked at us and just shook her head and sent us off to the bathroom to wash our hands. It was like our mom telling us that before we could have a snack we had to take a bath, and all of us just ran off to the bathroom to do it as quickly as possible.
- The dealers for UTH are one of a kind. It ranged from an arrogant asshole in Glen, to the wonderful afghan princess in Sina.
- Speaking of Sina, the pickup line from scary Peter Paul was classic. He found out that she was from Afghanistan and said, "What part of Afghanistan are you from? I'm only familiar with Kabul." Familiar with Kabul? What the hell do you mean?
- Had to lie to the pit boss that Laura and I were married so that she could play on my card. Then Jay came by and played with us which confused the dealer, when I think someone might of said that Laura and I have a very open relationship.
Craps: Didn't play that much, mainly due to the high limits at the Palazzo. Did have two classics runs though:
- Jay and I on Friday morning found a table at the Venetian that was just opening up. I was already smoking a cigar as we walked up to the table. The guys at the one end of the table asked if I was really going to smoke the cigar while playing craps. I then asked them which college they were from and they told me they were from Purdue. I responded "That's cool, I'll put it out. If you were from Duke, I would of kept on smoking." So Jay and I got our chips and the opening roll was just on its way. The shooter was on the other side of the table, but it was clear that they were friends with the Purdue guys on our side. The shooter goes and rolls for about 30 minutes and I make about $600. Then we all decide to leave the table. The Purdue guys bring down the shooter to us and states "Hey we didn't want to tell you this, but this guy works at Duke." We all had a good laugh, and I felt a little dirty winning money due to Duke.
- Mirage Sunday- Easily the biggest rollacoaster at a table I've ever experienced. Eric, Lee, Wiz, and I opened up a $5 table. The table started out so cold. No one hit a point for about 30 minutes. It got so bad that I was down $500 and I picked up and left. I went to the bathroom and came back and Wiz, Lee, and Eric were still there, and they just hit a point. So I decided to jump back in and that is when the table went crazy hot. Ira joined the table along with some older chicks. One of the older chicks rolled for a while and hit some great hardways, one in which I had $20 on. Ended up $100 after everything being said and done which was amazing.
Carney Games: Played Triple Exposure BJ and Black Jack Switch. Both games I could do without as it was fun to play for a short period of time, but in the long run I don't like it.
Additional Thoughts:
1. Don and Mike: Didn't really get to gamble with them. Wanted to, but whenever we asked where they were it was always "Oh Don is working out or taking a nap." Now I know that the group got separated a lot due to the UTH and the high table limits at the Palazzo, but I love playing craps with the both of them, and I didn't get to have a single roll. I am very curious on their thoughts on the trip.
2. Twitter: Eric needs to get on this asap. It fits him perfectly.
3. Morells: Terrible. Maybe it was due to the fact that we ate too late. Not worth the money.
4. Cabana: Terrible, but mainly due to the weather being bad.
5. Sharah: What a disaster. Financially and Mentally. Apparently I had a mental breakdown at the craps table that resulted in Eric and I having some issues to sort out the next day.
6. Women's Basketball: Shame on you Vegas for not having lines available. Shame on you and what you have become.
7. Laura and I's blow up at the BJ tables: Laura and I had separate blow ups at the tables where I was being pretty rude to the pit boss because she was being extremely lazy and providing zero customer service, and Laura got crazy over the dealer thinking she wanted to stay when she wanted to hit. I will expand on this a little more in a different post because it requires a more in depth look into the lack of customer service and the accepting behavior by the public of such actions.
Summary: Overall, another solid trip, but had some major holes in it. I think its time to eat dinner earlier even if we will miss games, and its obvious that we will probably stay at the Mirage next year due to the table limits and the games that they offer. Its just too bad that the trip that I lost the least amount of money required me to miss out on two days because of me being very sick. Ugh.
Sorry for the delay
Mar 17, 2009
Goals
- Just like Don, I want to relax a little bit more. I'm going to try to work out every morning if possible and go to the spa for a couple of massages. The only problem is that this is in direct contradiction of my "I love morning gambling" plans.
- Duel BJ Tables. The more I think about it the more I love this. And this can spread into other games, like craps and such.
- Study more: This year I got the Blue Ribbon report. I started to do research yesterday, but I have much more to do. I might get in early and just find a nice quiet place to finish reading the 144 pages of in depth coverage of each team.
- Limit my gambling to the locations of success. Stay out of the casinos that have never treated me well, like the Bellagio and Treasure Island. No reason why I should be giving them my money.
- Follow the number one rule of sports gambling. If everyone likes one game, go against it.
- Learn to enjoy Sundays and not think about Monday. All too often I can't enjoy Sunday since I'm thinking about going back to work and the drive home that day. Will most of us staying until Monday this should help.
One Day Left
Women's Bracket: Such huge value nested in these match ups. Its sad that everyone has something to add when wager on this. Purdue, MD, Santa Barbara, San Diego St, Rutgers, and Xavier. RRD, any info about the lady Cavs?
NIT: Ahhh, the NIT. Allows for additional wagers outside of the NCAA tourney. A lot of gems, but also a lot of opportunity for panic wagers. Nothing like thinking that you are all done for the day and then seeing some NIT wagers still remaining. PANIC PANIC PANIC, MUST GET ANOTHER WAGER IN!!!!!!
CBI: Sucks that they will only have games on the 17th and 18th. So if anyone needs anything, please let me know and I can place a wager. Looks as if I will be out there around 4:00pm.
Mar 16, 2009
Etiquette question
I Believe....
- That I haven't been this excited for a trip ever. Maybe because of the group or a needed escape from work, but I can't even concentrate anymore.
- That the failure of "Drop, Lock and Pop It" to catch on during last trip will not happen again. I'm going to push for "Like a Lollipop" as this years catch phrase.
- That the Cabana won't be as much fun as last year. Expectations are set way too high for it to live up to it. The great thing about the Cabana last year was that we didn't know what to expect and it ended up being a great day. Let's hope that the location of this years Cabana can increase the fun from last year.
- That we all will be shocked on how much Vegas has changed due to the economy. Gambling behaviors will be amazing to watch. Tables will be extremely dead while foot traffic will still look the same.
- That with the above comment, we will own a craps table for an extended period of time.
- That with the above comment, we will be split up evenly on two BJ tables and will have a side wager on which table will win more money during a session.
- That this will result in Eric being forced to bet $25 a hand and then having to double down which will result in him acting like Charles Nelson Rielly.
- That Credit Card Roulette will make its triumphant return during this trip.
- That Don will be the loser again on CC Roulette.
- That I will get in a big argument about my cigar smoking with someone at a BJ table.
- That I will accidentally ash on a craps table with my cigar.
- That I will be called an "idiot" by Wiz at least 100 times during the trip.
- That we will all be called "idiots" by the Ultimate Texas Holdem dealer for going in blind.
- That I will be drunk before 10:00am everyday.
This morning
1. Fall Out Boy- Watching VH1 this morning and heard a song by them that was pretty good. It was about finding happiness in other people's misery. And this got me thinking about one of the major things I have really worked on over the past couple of years on losing out in Vegas. Here are the two things that I have worked on and hopefully all of you can tell a difference.
- Celebrating others success while getting destroyed. When I lose, I used to take it really tough. I would switch into full pussy bitch mode if I lost and someone else won. Oh you just had a great run, Fuck you, I just lost. Its not fair. Eric pointed this out a couple years back and I've tried really hard not to fall into that trap. I've tried to take the same stance in golf. Hey, I know I suck so why am I getting so pissed when I suck. Just enjoy it. And magically I end up golfing better. Same thing goes for gambling. Yeah I lost, but if I dwell on it and become jealous of others that won, I will just go into a huge deep hole, instead of brushing it off and understand that my time will come.
- Losing is not just as good as winning. We all have gotten to a point that we really do accept getting destroyed in Vegas. It's almost like a badge of honor with the group. At dinner, the people that lost the most get the most attention. And most of us get a giddy feeling when someone comes back to the group stating they just got hammered at Craps or BJ. I think this stems from a sense of relief that we weren't part of that destruction. I'm working on not asking question after question about the losing sessions of others.
2. So then in the shower this morning I was trying to compare people going on the trip to the current basketball teams in the tourney. Actually very entertaining, which resulted in me taking a 30 minute shower at 5:15am this morning with me giggling every minute. So onto the comparison. And please don't take offense to the list as this is all in fun.
- Micah= Kentucky: I know he isn't going but still deserves a shout out. Is there an easier comparison? His streak ends just like Kentucky.
- Kermit=Arizona: Should he go or shouldn't he? Everyone was questioning if he should be in, but as you know with teams like AZ, they will surprise everyone and win at least one game. I'm glad Kermit is joining us now, and I will be betting heavily on Arizona.
- Jay=Memphis: Probably doesn't get the respect from the national media for being a strong team or very strong gambler. Should surprise.
- Laura= Missouri: Its been a long time since they have been ranked this high? Can they live up to the pressure of being a 3 seed?
- Wiz= UNC: The big ticket team fits the big gambler. So much hype around this team at the beginning of the year that anything less than a championship would be a failure.
- Lee= Syracuse: Has gone through a lot to get here. Logging lots of minutes might hamper their ability to perform during the tourney and the trip.
- Don= Gonzaga: Surprised people years ago with a great run and has been a mainstay in the tourney ever since. With Don he surprised myself (and others) with his wine and food knowledge and has been a great addition to the trip. Gonzaga will travel anywhere to play anyone just like Don will travel at anytime to any riverboat to gamble. Even if it is during lunch. But is Gonzaga ranked too high? Yeah they traveled to play tough teams, but they lost. Let's see what they can produce this year.
- Mike= Purdue: Why such a low ranking after winning the Big Ten? No respect. Tourney experience and an easy path this weekend should put them in the sweet 16 (yes the gooch. your welcome). Always surprised after the fact that at how solid of a gambler Mike is and a great addition to the group.
- Derek= Duke: The team that people love to hate. Major holes in their game and is ripe for an upset. Plus, I love Duke.
- Eric=Michigan St: Flys under the radar and just wins. They seem like a grinding type of team which really describes Eric's golf and gambling style.
I'm sure I will get blasted on this, but oh well. Have a great morning.
Vegas Planning
Here is the first round schedule for the games:
Tbursday
12:20 ET/9:20 PT
8 LSU vs 9 Butler
2 Memphis vs 15 CS-Northridge
8 BYU vs 9 Texas A&M
2:40 ET/11:40 PT
4 Purdue vs 13 Northern Iowa
1 North Carolina vs 16 Radford
7 California vs 10 Maryland
1 Connecticut vs 16 Chattanooga
5:00 ET/2:00 PT
4 Washington vs 13 Mississippi St
7:15 ET/ 4:15 PT
7 Clemson vs 10 Michigan
7 Texas vs 10 Minnesota
3 Villanova vs 14 American
4 Gonzaga vs 13 Akron
9:45 ET / 6:45 PT
2 Oklahoma vs 15 Morgan St
2 Duke vs 15 Binghampton
6 UCLA vs 11 VCU
5 Illinois vs 12 Western Kentucky
So the opening tipoff is Butler- LSU. Not bad at all.
The Maryland-Purdue coflict will be interesting for the group, and a lot of games of interest at 4 pm PT.
Friday
12:20 ET / 9:20 PT (we will miss these games)
3 Syracuse vs 14 Stephen F Austin
8 Oklahoma St vs 9 Tennessee
6 Marquette vs 11 Utah St
3 Kansas vs 14 North Dakota St
2:50 ET/ 11:50 PT
6 Arizona St vs 11 Temple
1 Pittsburgh vs 16 E Tenn St
3 Missouri vs 14 Cornell
6 West Virginia vs 11 Dayton
7:15 ET / 4:15 PT
5 Utah vs 12 Arizona
7 Boston College vs 10 Southern Cal
4 Xavier vs 13 Portland St
1 Louisville vs 16 Play-in
9:45 ET / 6:45 PT
8 Ohio St vs 9 Siena
4 Wake Forest vs 13 Cleveland St
2 Michigan St vs 15 Robert Morris
5 Florida St vs 12 Wisconsin
So my mission is clear - play fast enough so we can get back in time for the Dayton tipoff at noon.
Mar 15, 2009
Quick Thoughts
1. God, can they drag this out anymore?
2. I really do like Gumble. Nothing better than hearing his voice break in with an update on a possible upset.
3. Midwest- Great matchup for Sienna. Arizona is in, bad news for the Terps. Terrible matchup for Eric's North Dakota St. Great news for Eric with Dayton getting in at an 11 seed. I guess it wasn't that close for them.
4. West-Memphis will crush Northridge. They are terrible. Terps a 10??!!?!?!?!?! WOW. WOW!!!!! Make sure you ask Eric about Missouri. Very interesting take on them that was in direct contridiction of my thoughts, but I now agree with him. And my boys from Utah St. has a nice matchup. They should be favored. Let's hope it is a busy day at the Cabana on Saturday with both the Boilermakers and Terps still going.
5. East- Upset region. I like Oklahoma St, Wisconsin, Portland St, Lee's team American, and VCU. Pitt should be able to roll through this bracket.
6. South- LSU an 8 vs Butler? Should be a great game. Let's go Zips. Clemson vs Morgan ST in the second round?
So PSU, St. Mary's, Creighton, San Diego St, Va Tech, and New Mexico are out. If you would of swapped them with the ones that made it, I don't think you here many complaints. So many weak teams that the first round should be full up upsets. Hopefully. I will follow this up probably on Tuesday with a more in depth look at the matchups.
Pairings
Below are the new teams for this year.
Jim Nantz/Clark Kellogg
Dick Enberg/Carter Blackburn/Jay Bilas
Verne Lundquist/Bill Raftery
Gus Johnson/Len Elmore
Kevin Harlan/Dan Bonner
Ian Eagle/Jim Spanarkel
Craig Bolerjack/Bob Wenzel
Tim Brando/Mike Gminski
Mar 14, 2009
Pre-trip preparations
Uh - the family is staying here and going to work and school. Now please give me my money without further chit chat.
I'm so looking forward to this trip. Obviously, a lot of it is the gambling and the group - but a lot is also getting away from any responsibilities for 5 days. Work has been tough, 3 kids is pretty draining, and the winter has taken away from any golf time. It's going to be great to go out there and just have fun.
Been thinking a lot about the size of the bets that I will be doing out there. Let's start with the sports betting. Last year's statstical lesson worked well, I believe. I set aside the amount I could lose for sports bets, did the equation, and came up with teh wager amount. This year - I'm guessing 30-35 "big" sports bets with the same willingness to lose $1500 if things go really bad - like 10-25.
I've tried to think about this and apply to craps and blackjack. I have an advanced craps book which is based on the principle of conservative bettign -you should be very happy with small wins and set small loss limits. He suggests that you:
- pick the amount you will outlay for one roller
- bring 10 times that amount to start
- leave the table when you lose 4 roller's worth ( thus walking away with 60% of your original stake).
The reason why he wants you to do this is the psychological effect of walking away and leaving the casino with something in your pocket. This may apply for a 4-hour trip to Argosy, but for a 5 day trip to Vegas, I don't think this rule should apply for each session. He says it is psychologicall different to go to a table with $200 and lose it all - versus going to a table with $500 and coming back with $300.
He's got a point, but I don't think it's valid here. If you go to a table, outlay $300 , and lose it all - you still should have your Vegas trip bankroll back in your room. You can go get some more.
What would be my starting outlay at craps? Usually, it would be 5 shooter's worth. So - for example:
$5 table: I'd play a $5 pass, $10 odds, $6 6 and 8. That's 15+12 = 27 per shooter, *5 = $135. And that's abot what I take to Belterra/Riverside and the other $5 tables I play. It usually lasts 2 hours or so.
$10: 10 pass, 15 odds, 12 6 and 8: $49 per shooter; $250 outlay. $300 sounds good.
$15: 15 pass, 20 odds, 18 6 and 8: $71 per shooter ----$350-$400 outlay.
$25: 25 pass, 25 odds, 30 6 and 8: $110 per shooter; the one time I played last year I only outlayed $500. I need to go to $600 if we decide to jump in this pool again.
But then I read my blackjack book and found these passages:
"A buy in of 50 bets has a 1% chance of being lost in 300 decisions". I think we can prove that with my formula from last year, with the p of winning being 0.49, and the 1% being 2 standard deviations less than the mean. 300 decisions is roughly 5 hours of playing. (60 decisions per hour)
"A buy-in of 25 bets has a 20% chance of disappearing in 300 decisions".
Hmmmm.....I don't usually follow this rule. $10 table -what do you pull out? I pull out $200 - 20 bets. Not $250.
Then I saw this: "A long term bankroll should be at least 200 times your average bet - a bankroll of 200 bets has less than a 1% chance of disappearing in 2500 decisions".
Wow - I think 2500 decisions is going to cover the Vegas trip. (60 decisions per our in BJ, 40 for Pai Gow, but what for Craps? 80? 100?). 2500 decisions is roughly 40 equivalent hours of BJ - that sounds right for this trip, right?
But do we have bankrolls for 200 times our average - not minimum - bet? Of course not. If a 200x bankroll gives you 1% risk of losing your stake, what about a 100x bankroll? I think we can use the same prinicples and come up with the % risk. I'll work on that in the shower tomorrow, using the glass shower door as the blackboard.....
Something for everyone?
We will have none of this next week
I assume Kermit will try to remind me of these great mechanics by singing thse lyrics this week:
Don't wanna lose it
It's electric - Boogie woogie, woogie
But you can't choose it
It's electric - Boogie woogie, woogie
But you know it's there,
Yeah here there everywhere
I've got to move,
Come let me take you on a party ride
And I'll teach you, teach you, teach you
I'll teach you the electric slide
Mar 13, 2009
Productivity
Mar 12, 2009
This time next week I will be......
So now its to set financial expectations on how this trip will go this year. Eric and I had a great conversation on what is a realistic expectation on how much money you should come home with. With the amount that we gamble, can we realistically expect to come home with more money that we started? How about just breaking even? The chances are very slim as we are going against such huge odds. When you are potentially gambling for 60 hours over a course of 5 days, you probably shouldn't expect to come out ahead. That's just not going to happen unless one gets extremely lucky or just plays massive amounts of poker.
So how does this change my budget? Not too sure if it does at all? Does this change my gameplan? Probably not. It just changes my attitude on that long ride home to the OC when I'm just going over in my head how many stupid things I did during the weekend.
Onto the budget. Eric wants me to take the Obama approach to the budget with "Just spend and worry about where the money will come later." I like it.
Note: The amounts and gameplan will probably change based on the input from the readers and most importantly my brother.
Roulette ($500): Might as well get this one out of the way. And to pull a line from A-Rod, how can I be honest with everyone else if I can't be honest with myself. Enough is enough. I'm done budgeting a low amount realizing that every year Wiz and I lose a ton in about 2 minutes. And I can't seem like the victim anymore. I love doubling up on Black. LOVE IT. Its more exciting than any other gambling moment...watching that bitch ball go into the black slot and then bouncing into red. WOW, so exciting despite losing a ton of money. So I'm probably going to stop playing my usually numbers and hold out when Wiz and I are left alone unsupervised to unload my bankroll here. Why am I such a sucker.
Sportsbook ($300): My strategy worked last year and I will go with it again. Small wagers and limit my exposure in this arena.
Craps ($1500): Subtracted $500 to this years budget which worries me since we had so much fun last year and now we have Jay and Laura in the mix, Kermit teaching his girl how to play, Mike and Don sneaking off to play by themselves, Wiz and I playing $25 tables, and Eric going over to Casino Royale to avenge his loss from last year. Just thinking about it, how many hours out of the trip will we have someone playing craps? I'm setting the over/under will be 75 hours.
BJ ($600): Worked out pretty well. All I need is one really good run and this budget should be fine. I over budgeted in this category last year since I really didn't take into account some big runs that I had. Also, the limits will be lower this year so I don't have to plan on only playing at $25 tables.
Pai Gow ($300): Never had an issue with this low amount, despite playing at $25 tables. And someone has to teach me how to win lots of money at this game. When I do well, I'm only up like $100, while my bad streaks can be damaging.
Ultimate Texas Holdem ($300): The X factor. Really. If we have access to $5 tables, then this will be more than enough, but at a $10 table, this could be gone in minutes. I love this game so much that I might have to re-budget after Thursday.
Wheel of Fortune ($200): Once again, why bother lying to myself. Especially since the Wheel is right outside of the elevators, so I'm sure I will camp out there while I wait for others to come on down.
Video Poker ($100): It seems like this is the biggest drain on my bankroll. Its always amazes me how much I spend on Video Poker. Trying to reconcile the day always is frustrating because I tend to forget about $20 here and $20 there that I dropped into the Video Poker machine at the bar.
OK, so I think this is looking OK since this falls into my budget for the cash I will have on hand. It allows me some wiggle room if things go south as I have a pretty solid reserve amount ready to be activated if I have a really bad run.
I would love any feedback if you guys have any.
Mar 11, 2009
Oliver's nightmare?
Regardless, if this bracket shows up on Sunday, I'm sure Wiz will be sweating.
Mar 9, 2009
Mar 8, 2009
Welcome back!
Mar 6, 2009
Head of the Class
In my first session I asked the group if they have already decided on a college and they basically all said yes. So I asked which schools. Johns Hopkins, NYU, Harvard, Penn, Columbia, Stanford, and Berkley. Hmmmm. So where are my Long Beach State candidates? Or UC Riversiiiiiiiide? Nope, just a bunch are really smart Asian teenagers majoring in Art History, Engineering, and Math. So why are you needing me again? Oh because my rise in the insurance industry was so exciting? Or is it because you need an example of what not to do during high school and college. I truly felt like Michael Scott.
With one of the sessions I somehow got sidetracked and went on a rant about the trickle down effect on how government involvement hampers the growth of successful companies as it prevents acquisitions and how it applies to Farmers and what is going on with AIG. I got quiet the stare down from the teacher after that.
So in honor of my high school visit, I'll try and transition over to a Top 20 "I remember" blog about Vegas. On 12 days left....
- I remember how nice I thought the Monte was when we stayed there the year that it opened.
- I remember having a $100 a day budget.
- I remember actually driving out to the Hover Dam and doing touristy things.
- I remember how terrible the "Lazy River" was.
- I don't remember why we didn't sue to Monte for the glass in the Lazy River.
- I remember never betting the come and only using single odds in craps since I was strapped for cash.
- I remember that Billy Nogle was pretty damn funny but pretty damn poor.
- I remember doubling down on 12....ALL THE TIME.
- I remember when the Terps were good and going to Vegas was more about watching them than gambling at times.
- I remember going out to Vegas with non gamblers and how aggravated I was.
- I remember driving out to Vegas with Sooz and her sister and getting pulled over and spilling a beer in the car as the officer knocked on the window.
- I remember when I used to do back to back long weekend trips with Eric's friends and then my friends.
- I remember Jay and I pulling our traditional 24 hours of drinking and gambling at the Monte.
- I remember when Robbie and I played 24 straight hours of poker and having to be carried away from the table when it was over.
- I will always remember the side bar at the Monte where we watched two of the more amazing basketball games in my life; Butler county game and the Drew Nicholas game.
- I remember picking up a Monte BJ dealer, but not being able to close the deal.
- I remember bumping into Scotty Nguyen in the horseshoe bathroom and feeling cool that I knew who he was before poker got big.
- I remember midnight runs at the NewYork NewYork.
- I remember how nervous I used to get walking into a casino. No more though.
- I remember how bad my hangover is after I return from Vegas.
Mar 5, 2009
The Soundtrack of Gambling
Mar 4, 2009
14 days till Vegas
Thank god we don't have this much pull
Vegas Dinner Plans...
Can we get some prop bets flowing on this one? Eric vs Layup? Wiz vs Kermit? Jay vs Laura?