NFL Week 1: Tea Olive

We're back! Don't let the lack of posting fool you! I've been in hiding for the last few days obsessing over the Week 1 picks for you. We will try to duplicate last year's documented 57.5% winning percentage (135-100) in 2009.

This year's theme: each week, we will compare the games/season with the holes at Augusta National. We start with Hole #1, Tea Olive. It's a tough, tough par 4 right out of the gate - and that's about how I feel with these picks. For an opening par 4, you don't know where your swing is at; you just want to get off the tee without too much damage, and you play conservatively to make sure you don't blow the round with a triple on the first hole. You're asking for a nice par - or at worst, a tap in bogey - so you can get comfortable and get into your round.

That's how I feel this week. So many changes in the teams - I'm not sure if I have a good feel on any of them. Several new coaches are in place - and with a new coach comes an instant jolt of excietment and unpredictability with the teams. In short, for week 1, I'm looking just to survive with an 8-8 week, much like many golfers at Augusta are looking just for a par on #1 to ctach their breath.

On to the picks:

Pit 20, Ten 17. For the record, I did pick Ten +6.5, so I'm 1-0 to start the year. A good warmup session on the range.

Atl 28, Mia 20. Boy, starting with this game feels exactly like opening tee jitters. Can anyone tell me they know what to expect from either of these teams? Is one of them a fluke afte rthe surprise 2008? Are both? Are neither of them flukes? Who the hell knows? Let's just swing away and see what happens......

Cin 28, Den 17. Ugh. I really don't like this pick, but I don't like what I see from Denver.

Ind 24, Jax 13. This is like playing a course once a year and you get to the first green, and you have a 10 footer. You seem to have the same 10 footer every year - it has to break left. It HAS to! You play it outside the hole every freaking year, and it doesn't move.

I always seem to take the under in these Ind-Jax games. It has to be low scoring. Has to! And it never is.

NO 31, Det 16. Boy, the Saints look good. But I think the new coach in Detroit will keep the game somewhat close.

Dal 19, TB 17. What do we really think about the Cowboys? Is Tampa really as bad as we think? I think we're missing something here. I think this game willgo down to the wire.

Car 24, Phi 19. You have a nice round going in the fall, and you screw it up with a double on an easy hole near the end of the round - like a double on, oh, #17 at Blue Ash, #16 at Punderson or #16 at Rocky Point. And then you have to wait 6 months before your next round.

Wouldn't that just stick in your mind - and when you start again next spring, you'd be determined to erase that memory by playing well and focusing for all 18 holes?

The point is, Carolina's end to the season last year has got to be a motivator this year. They want to erase that memory as soon as possible.

Bal 27, KC 9. Really, how are the Chiefs going to score here?

Hou 22, NYJ 16. I'm not sold on the Jets. This is like every year at the Masters - the sleeper picks come out: "Justin Rose is playing well! Look out for him!" And then he makes 6 on the opening hole. Let's wait until the turn to anonit the Jets as a contender for the AFC East.

NYG 16, Was 13. No real ideas here. Was did not have a good preseason; can they move the ball? I'll be interested in watching this at 4.

Az 30, SF 20. Should be a shootout. I know a few people who have Warner on their fantasy team - all I can say is "good luck with THAT".

Sea 27, StL 21. It would not surprise me to see the Rams win this one. I can't pull the trigger and predict it - but they still have some weapons (although a bit older), and a new coach will help.

GB 27, Chi 20. I really want to like the Packers in this game. They looked damn good in the preseason.

NE 31, Buf 10. Sports Guy picked the Bills to be the worst team in the league at 2-14. I think he may be right. If this is true, there is no way they are going into Foxboro and coming within 20 points.

SD 24, Oak 20. Something is fishy here. This game is too easy - TOO easy. This is like Royla Links #5 - the hole is a 300 yard par 4 - straight away - you hit a perfect drive and wham! You are in a pot bunker that is in the middle of the fairway that you can't see from the tee box. Something about this game scares me - and should scare the Chargers.

Min 23, Cle 20. If you pick the Vikings in your suicide pool this week, you are a silly, silly fool. This game will be close and go down to the wire.

15 picks (1-0 so far):

Atl -4

Cin -5

Ind -7

Jax/Ind under 45

TB +5.5

Car +2.5

Bal -13

Hou -4.5

NYJ/Hou under 44

Was +6.5

NYG/Was under 37

Az -6

StL/Sea over 41

NE -10.5

Oak +9.5

Suicide pick: Baltimore.