Sep 30, 2008
Sep 29, 2008
Um....everyone needs to calm down.
So the House takes the feedback from Flotsam and Jetsam and downs the bailout bill. Good, I thought. Until I watched the market plummet. And plummet some more. And plummet once again. And now the blame game starts...which makes me sick.
I need to make up some money, since I'm still going to Vegas and I need to enough money to play the $5 tables at the Wynn. Shit, if everyone isn't back down to $5 tables in this economy, then I'm fucked. So I'm setting the betting line for the lowest point for the Dow at 8,955.36. I will be accepting all wagers.
I need to make up some money, since I'm still going to Vegas and I need to enough money to play the $5 tables at the Wynn. Shit, if everyone isn't back down to $5 tables in this economy, then I'm fucked. So I'm setting the betting line for the lowest point for the Dow at 8,955.36. I will be accepting all wagers.
Sep 27, 2008
NFL Week 4: Jerome Boger
Argh. The Cleveland Browns. The team is 0-3, and you hope for something good to come out from teh team on Sunday....but deep down in your heart, you know you are going to be disappointed.
It's like when one of the league's worst refs comes out of the tunnel for the game. You cross your fingers and hope he won't affect the game, but in the end, it's usually one critical call (that's questionable) that will get you.
Last year, it was the pushout of Kellen Winslow in Arizona. With no time left and the Browns down 6, Winslow caught the ball in the end zone but was (clearly?) pushed out by the defensive backs. Boger's crew made no call, and the game ended as a Browns loss.
Don't ask me if it was a pushout, I'm biased. Ask a Viking fan.
Not a lot of attractive games this week, huh?
Ten 23, Min 13. Minnesota really only scored 13 offensive points at home vs Carolina - a good but not great defense. I have Peterson on my fantasy team, and am not expecting a good week.
GB 27, TB 24. Tampa shot their wad last week, and I think Green Bay will pull this one out with 600 yards passing between the teams.
Az 20, NYJ 16. Am I crazy for picking the Cards on the road?
NO 31, SF 17. Boy, did NO get hosed. Really, how good are the 9ers? They lost to the Cards and beat Seattle (eh) and the Lions (ugh).
Den 27, KC 10. Something here smells fishy.....
Jax 27, Hou 13. Houston has to get off the schnide sometime, right? Is this a trap game for the Jaguars? If so, I'm falling in the trap too.
Car 23, Atl 13. Can Matt Ryan play on the road?
Buf 30, StL 20. I'm not sure why I think the Rams will score 20 at home - maybe the new quarterback (Green) will help them.
SD 28, Oak 13. Did the real Chargers finally show up last Monday? Boy, I'm scared of this pick now.
SD 28, Oak 13. Did the real Chargers finally show up last Monday? Boy, I'm scared of this pick now.
Dal 31, Was 17. Dallas looks unstoppable. And Washington may actually be a good team !
Chi 20, Phi 17. Just a hunch - Chicago pulls out the home win on a punt return.
Pit 24, Bal 17. Atleast 14 of these points will be from turnovers - one side or another.
Best bets this week: 15 of them. Last week: 9-6. Overall: 30-17-1.
Ten -3
GB +1.5
GB/ TB over 42.5
Az +1
Az/NYJ under 44.5
NO -4
Den -9.5
Den/KC under 47
Jax -7
Car -6.5
Buf/Stl Over 43.5
SD -7.5
Dal -10.5
Chi +3
Bal/Pit over 33.5
7 favorites to 3 underdogs. I don't feel very good about that.
Terrible
Just a quick comment from last night's debate. I thought that the question of "What are you going to cut from your wish list due to the financial question" was probably the best question I have ever heard in a debate. And both candidates sucked it up on that one. Obama side stepped the question, not once, no twice, but thrice, and McCain kept on going back to ear marks? This tells me that Obama will just say whatever is needed to get into the White House (like his nuclear comment), and McCain really doesn't know what to do and will turn it over to his advisers to handle.
And one last annoying comment. Both guys totally butchered so many names and words during the debate. Um...what is the Tollybon? And Paukistun?
As Eric and I discussed, I really didn't learn anything. How does that happen?
And one last annoying comment. Both guys totally butchered so many names and words during the debate. Um...what is the Tollybon? And Paukistun?
As Eric and I discussed, I really didn't learn anything. How does that happen?
Sep 25, 2008
Sep 24, 2008
Quick Political/Economics Thoughts
I want to be honest on this blog....
1) McCain's idea to suspend his campaign and push for a postponement of the debate is a bad idea. It seems like a stunt in itself. I don't want to accuse McCain of ducking Obama, but....
I understand the concept. The nation is in crisis! We must provide leadership! However....
a) When did this become a crisis? Why now? Why is it immediate?
b) I would like to think that if it is truly a crisis, then all politicians on both sides of the aisle would act that way. I don't even see half the Republicans acting in crisis mode, let alone Pelosi & co.
2) McCain could certainly make a good commercial out of this - and a good point. Where is the Democratic Congressional leadership on this? You have Harry Reid out there last week saying "We don't know what to do". Great...these are the people currently in charge.
3) And hell if I know what to do. The bailout, to me, just seems wrong. If P&G made a bad decision and our stcok plummeted (like, say, IN 2000!) - no one would ever bail us out. Why these banks? Why should I care? I pay my bills, I have a responsible mortgage - part of me says screw them - let them fail.
I can see Wiz blowing his top here.......so make the case. Why should $700 Billion of taxpayer money go to saving some banks?
As long as FDIC doesn't go under - which, from all indications, it won't - then why should I care?
You can probably guess I didn't take an economics class in college....
1) McCain's idea to suspend his campaign and push for a postponement of the debate is a bad idea. It seems like a stunt in itself. I don't want to accuse McCain of ducking Obama, but....
I understand the concept. The nation is in crisis! We must provide leadership! However....
a) When did this become a crisis? Why now? Why is it immediate?
b) I would like to think that if it is truly a crisis, then all politicians on both sides of the aisle would act that way. I don't even see half the Republicans acting in crisis mode, let alone Pelosi & co.
2) McCain could certainly make a good commercial out of this - and a good point. Where is the Democratic Congressional leadership on this? You have Harry Reid out there last week saying "We don't know what to do". Great...these are the people currently in charge.
3) And hell if I know what to do. The bailout, to me, just seems wrong. If P&G made a bad decision and our stcok plummeted (like, say, IN 2000!) - no one would ever bail us out. Why these banks? Why should I care? I pay my bills, I have a responsible mortgage - part of me says screw them - let them fail.
I can see Wiz blowing his top here.......so make the case. Why should $700 Billion of taxpayer money go to saving some banks?
As long as FDIC doesn't go under - which, from all indications, it won't - then why should I care?
You can probably guess I didn't take an economics class in college....
Sep 21, 2008
Caption Contest?
Found on the Browns board tonight: This picture.Caption:
"This man needs a real job."
Please - I agree. When is Romeo going to be released? What a disaster today. 0-3, with more tough games coming soon.
(oh, we are an early 4-point underdog to Cincinnati coming up. Oh joy).
I can't believe this season has gone down the toilet so fast.
NFL Week 3: Carl Cheffers
Well, with the electricity (and Internet) outage here in Cincinnati, combined with my Ryder Cup hangover - up at 4:30 am, home at midnight - I'm too tired to put any thought into these NFL picks. So - I'll use up my last freebie and introduce you to the other new NFL referree this season, Carl Cheffers. Coming soon to a NFL game near you! Prediction: He'll be doing the Detroit - San Francisco barnburner today.
Today's games:
Was 20, Az 17. Layup and I were talking - doesn't every Redskin-Cardinals game come down to a 54 yard field goal at the gun?
Min 24, Car 17. Gus Frerotte is an improvement. How does that sound, Redksins fans?
NYG 31, Cin 16. This is the suicide pick for the week.
Ten 21, Hou 20. I think the Texans are better than people think - they are the NFL's forgotten team right now.
Atl 20, KC 17. There is no reason why Atlanta should be favroed by 6.5 over any one!
NE 24, Mia 13. I'm very interested to see how Cassel progress this week and the next. If any one can get a read on him, now is the time to make money on the Patriots before Vegas catches on.
Buf 27, Oak 19. This game would scare me, if I was a Buffalo fan.
TB 20, Chi 13. Remember last week when I said Chicago was for real? Can I take that back?
SF 31, Det 23. Why don't I have J T O'Sullivan on my roster yet?
NO 31, Den 27. Upset of the week. Psssst - I don't think Denver is that good.
Sea 24, StL 20. The Rams will stay close. I think people are still overvaluing the seahawks.
Ind 20, Jax 17. Feels like a Vinatieri FG game at the end, no?
Phi 27, Pit 23. I have no idea what could happen here.
Dal 23, GB 20. Green Bay should try to keep the ball on the ground and the clock moving.
SD 27, NYJ 17. How can you top last week's MNF? By having a Favre-a-palloza.
Cle 24, Bal 13. This week, CNN Si had a list of the top 10 coaches that cold be fired at the end of the season. Romeo was not on it. IF the Browns lose here, he could be gone for Janice's birthday, Oct 6th. Then I won't have to get her a present.
Best bets: 15 picks this week: Last week: 10-5-1; overall; 21-11-1.
Az/Was under 43
Min -3
Car/Min over 37
Cin/NYG over 41.5
Hou +5
KC +6.5
Oak/Buf over 36.5
TB +3
SF -4.5
Det/SF over 46.5
NO +5.5
NO/Den over 51
StL + 9.5
Pit/Phi over 44
Dal/GB Under 51.5
2 bonus Ryder Cup picks:
Ben Curtis +130 over Lee Westwood
JB Holmes -110 over Soren Hansen
Sep 13, 2008
Week 2: Jeff Triplette
Well, this has been a strange NFL week, hasn't it? The fantasy fans out there had no idea what was going to happen with the Bal-Hou game until the last minute - and then once they made an annoucement, we're all left scrambling to figure out how to adjust our plans.
Kind of like a Jeff Triplette-officiated game! I consider him to be one of the worse officials out there. I may be biased, however - he was the official who threw the flag into Orlando Brown's eye in 1999 and knocked out our offensive lineman for the year.
Anyway, he did last monday night's game with the Packers-Vikes; I see that his crazy, flag-happy days aren't behind him yet! I believe there were 21 penalties called in the game.
Anyway, he did last monday night's game with the Packers-Vikes; I see that his crazy, flag-happy days aren't behind him yet! I believe there were 21 penalties called in the game.
On to the Week 2 picks:
Jax 24, Buf 13. Jacksonville is too good to fall to 0-2, aren't they?
Chi 19, Car 17. I now have a feeling that the Bears are for real.
GB 31, Det 20. Maybe I'm thinking this is like a 2002 NFC North shootout in the dome. However, Rodgers looked good against a good defense - how will he look vs the Lions?
Min 24, Ind 20. Indy looked off, and Minnesota showed they could play on offense in the 2nd half of the GB game.
Was 27, NO 23. The Saints are a terrible road team. That's the only reason why I'm picking the Skins.
NYG 23, Stl 13. I hope - for our suicide pool's sake - that the Giants lose.
KC 20, Oak 10. This may take the cake as the "Most Unwatchable Game" of 2008 - until the Bengals and Redskins play in Cincinnati later this year.
Ten 16, Cin 13, OT. This will be close, but Cincinnati will fall apart in overtime.
TB 31, Atl 13. Oh please, Mr Gruden, bring the kitchen sink against Ryan.
Sea 24, SF 16. I'm not so sure how good the Seahawks are anymore after last week's bomb.
Arz 27,Mia 17. Miami will lose a lot of games this year by 6-12 points (but not more).
NE 23, NYJ 20, OT. If Favre and the Jets pull this one out - hoo boy, look out for that Media Bandwagon.
Den 27, SD 24. I can easily see the Merriman-less Chargers falling to 0-2. When should we set the line for Norv's firing date? NOvember 9th?
Dal 24, Phi 23. This should be a classic.
Cle 27, Pit 24. I'm going through the motions in picking the Browns until they give me something to be fired up about.
Best bets: Last week: 11-6.
Jax -4.5
Chi +3
GB -3
Min +1.5
Was pick
NO/Was over 42
NYG/Stl under 42
KC -3
Oak/KC under 36
Ten +1
Ten/Cin under 37
TB -7
Atl/TB Over 37.5
Az -6.5
NE pick
Phi +6.5
Sunday and Saturday Mornings
Being married to a women who doesn't wake up early means one thing....I have a lot of free time in the morning to do whatever I want. Sometimes I work out early, but I tend to just hop on the computer, drink some coffee and watch TV. But since I hate the programming on ESPN on the weekend, I have come up with a pretty regular viewing schedule.
- I've become addicted to the English Premier League. I will watch whatever is on. This morning I was going to wager on Hall City over Newcastle, and I didn't pull the trigger. Then I just watched the crappy game anyway. I don't like soccer, but I absolutely love the announcers.
- F1 racing. This is if I can't sleep and wake up before 6:00am. This has now on my list of things to go see before I die. Those guys are going 200mph through these cities. Crazy.
- European golf- I think RRD and myself are the only two guys watching this on the golf channel.
- I heart the fine people on the Weather Channel. Always in shape and looking very sharp in their blue jackets and caps. I also enjoy their non weather programming.
- Fox Money programming- I have a secret crush on Steve Forbes and Ben Stein. If they told me to buy stock in the company that makes anal beads, I'm in.
- Looking for reruns of Veronica Mars. I love that show for some reason.
Obediah!
So I was listening to Mike and Mike yesterday morning driving to work (yeah, I know, some of you are already saying that's a mistake). They came back from a commerical break to the tune of "Build Me Up, Buttercup".
Both Mikes were singing along horribly to the tune, and so was I (all alone, in the car).
They then lamented the fact taht neither one of them could sing. Greenie then said "you know, I would bet that most people wished they could sing - I mean, sing on tune and sing well. I love to sing, and I know I am bad - I wish I could sing better".
I'd agree with that. I love to sing too, and I realize I am horrible.
Then Greenie went a step further with a confession.
"And you know what? If I had a professional singing voice - I can't believe I'm saying this - honestly? I'd rather sing songs on Broadway than be a rock star".
Golic made fun of him, of course, but you know what? I agree. I'm with Greenie here. If I had a choice, I'd choose the talent of singing Broadway than being belting out unintelligble rock lyrics.
And don't shake your heads out there....I know there's a least one frequent commenter of this blog that would agree with that - (Mr CardinalGlee Club, I'm looking at you).
Then he went one further.
"I mean, I would love to be able to play the role of Sky Masterson in Guys and Dolls. That would be the ultimate role for me"
Wow.....I'm right with Greenie on this. I picture myself as more of a Nathan Detroit kind of guy, but I could do Sky Masterson as well. It's too bad I was driving alone and couldn't share my rendition of Sky during Scene 10 of Guys and Dolls. Strike up the band!
My time of day is the dark time
A couple of deals before dawn
Where the street belong to the cop
And the janitor with the mop
And the grocery clerks are all gone
And the smell of the rainwashed pavement
Comes up clean, and fresh, and cold
And the streetlamp light
Fills the gutter with gold
That's my time of day
My time of day
And you're the only doll I've ever wanted to share it with me
(speaking) Obediah!
[Sarah] Obediah? What's that?
[Sky] Obediah Masterson, that's my real name. You're the first person I've told that to.
I've never been in love before
Now all at once it's you
It's you forever more
I've never been in love before
I thought my heart was safe
I thought I knew the score
But this is wine, that's all too strange and strong
I'm full of foolish song
And out my song must pour
So please forgive this helpless haze I'm in
I've really never been
In love before........
Both Mikes were singing along horribly to the tune, and so was I (all alone, in the car).
They then lamented the fact taht neither one of them could sing. Greenie then said "you know, I would bet that most people wished they could sing - I mean, sing on tune and sing well. I love to sing, and I know I am bad - I wish I could sing better".
I'd agree with that. I love to sing too, and I realize I am horrible.
Then Greenie went a step further with a confession.
"And you know what? If I had a professional singing voice - I can't believe I'm saying this - honestly? I'd rather sing songs on Broadway than be a rock star".
Golic made fun of him, of course, but you know what? I agree. I'm with Greenie here. If I had a choice, I'd choose the talent of singing Broadway than being belting out unintelligble rock lyrics.
And don't shake your heads out there....I know there's a least one frequent commenter of this blog that would agree with that - (Mr CardinalGlee Club, I'm looking at you).
Then he went one further.
"I mean, I would love to be able to play the role of Sky Masterson in Guys and Dolls. That would be the ultimate role for me"
Wow.....I'm right with Greenie on this. I picture myself as more of a Nathan Detroit kind of guy, but I could do Sky Masterson as well. It's too bad I was driving alone and couldn't share my rendition of Sky during Scene 10 of Guys and Dolls. Strike up the band!
My time of day is the dark time
A couple of deals before dawn
Where the street belong to the cop
And the janitor with the mop
And the grocery clerks are all gone
And the smell of the rainwashed pavement
Comes up clean, and fresh, and cold
And the streetlamp light
Fills the gutter with gold
That's my time of day
My time of day
And you're the only doll I've ever wanted to share it with me
(speaking) Obediah!
[Sarah] Obediah? What's that?
[Sky] Obediah Masterson, that's my real name. You're the first person I've told that to.
I've never been in love before
Now all at once it's you
It's you forever more
I've never been in love before
I thought my heart was safe
I thought I knew the score
But this is wine, that's all too strange and strong
I'm full of foolish song
And out my song must pour
So please forgive this helpless haze I'm in
I've really never been
In love before........
Sep 10, 2008
Speak for yourself, Layup
I Like Ike!
Sorry, couldn't resist...this was the first thing that came to my mind.
We don't want IKE
Best case scenario, I get to spend two months down in Texas. Worst case scenario, I will be looking for a new job. This hurricane if it is a CAT 3 and hits Houston, would be just as bad as a severe earthquake to LA. Sep 9, 2008
Cheer up, Patriots fans....
... I could send you clips from Browns games in 2000 where Spergon Wynn was our quarterback. Now THAT is something you could cry about.
I understand you are in mourning about Brady's injury. I can relate - I felt the same way when Tim Couch went down in 2001....and 2002.....and 2003. But we got up off the mat and played on! Played on to a 5-11 record.
Anyway, people are dancing on the grave of the Patriots because they dismiss Belichick and "he has not won a playoff game without Tom Brady". This is not true! He has won a playoff game without Brady - and the star of that game is still available!
Vinny Testaverde led the Belichick-led Browns to their last playoff win back on January 1, 1995. It seems like yesterday! And as you know, Vinny was a quarterback in this league last year.
Now all you need is a phone call, and that Belichick-Vinny magic can work for the 2008 Patriots.
I understand you are in mourning about Brady's injury. I can relate - I felt the same way when Tim Couch went down in 2001....and 2002.....and 2003. But we got up off the mat and played on! Played on to a 5-11 record.
Anyway, people are dancing on the grave of the Patriots because they dismiss Belichick and "he has not won a playoff game without Tom Brady". This is not true! He has won a playoff game without Brady - and the star of that game is still available!
Vinny Testaverde led the Belichick-led Browns to their last playoff win back on January 1, 1995. It seems like yesterday! And as you know, Vinny was a quarterback in this league last year.
Now all you need is a phone call, and that Belichick-Vinny magic can work for the 2008 Patriots.
Sep 8, 2008
Thoughts about Palin
Well, it's been a exciting two weeks in the presidential contest, no question. And the race has been turned on its end by McCain's selection of Sarah Palin, the governor of Alaska. I've got a lot of thoughts about this and they are all rambling through my head....so I apologize if they all aren't coherent.
First, this is rebranding at its best. Look, it's clear now that the Bush brand of Republicanism is not good. Politicians with an R next to their name are running scared.
So how does one re-brand the Republican label? Well, figure out what people don't like about the current brand and fix it.
We can debate about this for hours, but I believe that people turned against the R label because of:
- corruption/scandals (think Larry Craig and Abramoff)
- high spending/deficits (not in line with traditional R principles)
- lack of "humanity" and not being in touch (Katrina).
I don't think it's the war - especially now with the Surge working well.
McCain can rightfully claim that he can turn around the party on those first two planks - corruption and spending - but the third one is iffy. How can a 72-year-old white man show that he can relate to the masses?
Well, enter Palin. She complements McCain on the first prinicple and clearly shows that she is "in touch". So what do we have now? The party can now be rebuilt around:
- strong defense
- lower spending
- driving out corruption
- in touch and responsive to needs
and this rebranding has some substance behind it - since McCain /Palin have a track record on some of those issues.
It will be a long process - but it is the start of a divorce from some of Bush's domestic policies. This separation process may not be successful in 2008 - I still think this election will turn on whether the US think Obama is ready and willing to embrace him - but this rebranding could be fantastic in 2010 and beyond.
Look- those principles that McCain/Palin is trying to rebrand the party on are very similar to Newt's contract with American in 1994. 2010 could be a 1994-type election if Republican's nationwide embrace those planks.
So - again - why Palin? Well, she can be the face for those new principles for the next decades. McCain has - at most - 10 years in the public eye. Who will be the Reagan and carry the banner for decades more? Palin is being set up to be a spokeswoman for these principles - almost like a Barry Goldwater. The 2008 election may not be won, but the base for a successful rebirth of a party can form around these thoughts.
I don't think you can pick a more effective spokesperson than Palin. And yes, that has to factor into the equation in picking a VP candidate - in effect, picking another national candidate to carry the banner.
Some more thoughts:
2. Palin is an excellent pick as she walks the line between social conservatism and drawing in working women. I am amazed on how this pick has woken up the conservative base. Palin - through her social conservative views - is starting to be a cult hero to conservative women. These women weren't even sure they were going to vote this fall! This is huge.
And Palin can be seen as appealing to independent, working women....those women that are married, have children, and have a career - those women who share some child care duties with their husband as the two of them juggle day care responsibilities. THose women - I guess you can call them "soccer moms" - voted Democratic in 2006 but voted for Bush in 2004 and 2000. Palin appeals directly to them.
And where are they located? Butler, Warren, Medina, Geauga counties in Ohio, Macomb in Michigan...the suburban counties in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and northern Virginia. These are not the Clinton feminists that Palin is trying to go after.
The pick of Palin - in one fell swoop - get the social conservative on board and also should swing some soccer moms to McCain. Brilliant.
3. It's amazing how easy you can make your strategy when you know the opponent's response. For a golf analogy: if you are in match play, and know that every time you get up and down from off the green to tie a hole, it drives your opponent crazy - and that craziness causes him to swing harder and harder.......well, wouldn't you try to miss greens? Wouldn't you try miss greens, knowing you can get up and down and purposely sending your opponent off the deep end?
I swear I think the Republicans know this. The media and most liberal democrats are predictable. We can guess what their reaction is going to be - "a woman governor from Alaska? She's a dumb hick that can't possibly hold up in the national media spotlight. And besides, she has 5 kids! She can't do the job!"
Well, if you can predict that reaction, you can be one step ahead of them by preparing and strategizing against that. Her speech onWednesday was good - boiler plate attack dog stuff - but since the story was the "dumb hick" angle, she looked impressive.
By the way - if you just read the speeches and didn't know who made them, you would think the historical speech was McCain's. It is shocking to hear the presidential candidate of a party effective bash much of the party's record over the past few years. It was -as I said earlier- a start of a divorce from 2001-08.
4. For all these reasons, Palin is a great political pick. And I think that's what drives some on the other side nuts. They expect to win this election, and in their eyes can see no way how the Republicans can or should win. As a result, they expect the Republicans to almost concede - that's what a pick of Pawlenty or another white male would have been.
But the Republicans are actively giong to try to win this election - that's what the pick of Palin signifies. This, I believe, is what is scaring Democrats. Some believe - after 8 years of Bush - the Presidency should automatically be handed to them. It's not, and they will have to make a case. That's not what they were expecting - and that's why the Palin pick took them by surprise.
First, this is rebranding at its best. Look, it's clear now that the Bush brand of Republicanism is not good. Politicians with an R next to their name are running scared.
So how does one re-brand the Republican label? Well, figure out what people don't like about the current brand and fix it.
We can debate about this for hours, but I believe that people turned against the R label because of:
- corruption/scandals (think Larry Craig and Abramoff)
- high spending/deficits (not in line with traditional R principles)
- lack of "humanity" and not being in touch (Katrina).
I don't think it's the war - especially now with the Surge working well.
McCain can rightfully claim that he can turn around the party on those first two planks - corruption and spending - but the third one is iffy. How can a 72-year-old white man show that he can relate to the masses?
Well, enter Palin. She complements McCain on the first prinicple and clearly shows that she is "in touch". So what do we have now? The party can now be rebuilt around:
- strong defense
- lower spending
- driving out corruption
- in touch and responsive to needs
and this rebranding has some substance behind it - since McCain /Palin have a track record on some of those issues.
It will be a long process - but it is the start of a divorce from some of Bush's domestic policies. This separation process may not be successful in 2008 - I still think this election will turn on whether the US think Obama is ready and willing to embrace him - but this rebranding could be fantastic in 2010 and beyond.
Look- those principles that McCain/Palin is trying to rebrand the party on are very similar to Newt's contract with American in 1994. 2010 could be a 1994-type election if Republican's nationwide embrace those planks.
So - again - why Palin? Well, she can be the face for those new principles for the next decades. McCain has - at most - 10 years in the public eye. Who will be the Reagan and carry the banner for decades more? Palin is being set up to be a spokeswoman for these principles - almost like a Barry Goldwater. The 2008 election may not be won, but the base for a successful rebirth of a party can form around these thoughts.
I don't think you can pick a more effective spokesperson than Palin. And yes, that has to factor into the equation in picking a VP candidate - in effect, picking another national candidate to carry the banner.
Some more thoughts:
2. Palin is an excellent pick as she walks the line between social conservatism and drawing in working women. I am amazed on how this pick has woken up the conservative base. Palin - through her social conservative views - is starting to be a cult hero to conservative women. These women weren't even sure they were going to vote this fall! This is huge.
And Palin can be seen as appealing to independent, working women....those women that are married, have children, and have a career - those women who share some child care duties with their husband as the two of them juggle day care responsibilities. THose women - I guess you can call them "soccer moms" - voted Democratic in 2006 but voted for Bush in 2004 and 2000. Palin appeals directly to them.
And where are they located? Butler, Warren, Medina, Geauga counties in Ohio, Macomb in Michigan...the suburban counties in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and northern Virginia. These are not the Clinton feminists that Palin is trying to go after.
The pick of Palin - in one fell swoop - get the social conservative on board and also should swing some soccer moms to McCain. Brilliant.
3. It's amazing how easy you can make your strategy when you know the opponent's response. For a golf analogy: if you are in match play, and know that every time you get up and down from off the green to tie a hole, it drives your opponent crazy - and that craziness causes him to swing harder and harder.......well, wouldn't you try to miss greens? Wouldn't you try miss greens, knowing you can get up and down and purposely sending your opponent off the deep end?
I swear I think the Republicans know this. The media and most liberal democrats are predictable. We can guess what their reaction is going to be - "a woman governor from Alaska? She's a dumb hick that can't possibly hold up in the national media spotlight. And besides, she has 5 kids! She can't do the job!"
Well, if you can predict that reaction, you can be one step ahead of them by preparing and strategizing against that. Her speech onWednesday was good - boiler plate attack dog stuff - but since the story was the "dumb hick" angle, she looked impressive.
By the way - if you just read the speeches and didn't know who made them, you would think the historical speech was McCain's. It is shocking to hear the presidential candidate of a party effective bash much of the party's record over the past few years. It was -as I said earlier- a start of a divorce from 2001-08.
4. For all these reasons, Palin is a great political pick. And I think that's what drives some on the other side nuts. They expect to win this election, and in their eyes can see no way how the Republicans can or should win. As a result, they expect the Republicans to almost concede - that's what a pick of Pawlenty or another white male would have been.
But the Republicans are actively giong to try to win this election - that's what the pick of Palin signifies. This, I believe, is what is scaring Democrats. Some believe - after 8 years of Bush - the Presidency should automatically be handed to them. It's not, and they will have to make a case. That's not what they were expecting - and that's why the Palin pick took them by surprise.
Can't Wait For March Madness!
I can't believe we are already in the sporting doldrums of February. The Super Bowl has ended, pitchers and catchers are just reporting, so baseball is still a ways away. Even the NBA players don't really care about these games right now. We are just waiting for March Madness and then baseball's Opening Day to bring the sports calendar back to a more exciting place.
What's that? Its still September?? Football season didn't just end? Hmm. Thats strange, because it sure feels like it...
What's that? Its still September?? Football season didn't just end? Hmm. Thats strange, because it sure feels like it...
Sep 7, 2008
Its like Christmas morning
I'm so excited. I was telling Carol last night that I wasn't too sure I could get to sleep since I was so excited about today. I haven't been this amp'd for the football season ever. It might be due to the A's being 30 games back, or it might be because:
1. Gambling on something real. I'm tired of hunting down value in Spanish Soccer and Track and Field. Its getting old hearing gambling tips on tennis from Wiz that never pays off.
2. Fantasy Football- I trimmed down to two teams this year. My old Farmer's Insurance League in Baltimore and my old softball league. I'm pretty excited this time since I spent more than one hour prepping.
3. Sunday mornings are now fun again. Wake up around 7:00am have some coffee, make final decisions on what to bet on, go for a run, then head over to the local bar to watch the games. Now I got Ben doing it this year along with his old neighbor Mike who is from Chicago. Should be fun.
So I was thinking about my predictions for the season and I'm having a tough time picking the AFC. If you buy into the theory that 2-3 new teams will make the playoffs, then we have some tough decisions to make.
AFC: Pats, Steelers, Chargers, Titans, Jaguars, and the Colts
NFC: Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks, Bucs, Giants, and the Skins
So the Pats will win the East and I'm going with the Jags in the South. Colts will hit the wild card, but we will have 3 new teams making the playoffs.
1. Denver- Yes the Broncos. This is more of a vote of no confidence against the Chargers than anything else. And yes, this is the year that Norv will take this team down.
2. Houston- Andre Johnson is the most under-rated player in the game right now. If he can stay healthy and their RB situation gets set, I see them making huge strides.
3. Browns- Sportsguy rips the trades that they made, but I don't understand why. Run defense was terrible and they got two top notch inside guys. I think that they will hold steady at 10-6 and win the division.
NFC: GreenBay, Cowboys, and Seattle will make the playoffs. Green Bay is the best team in the NFC, not the Cowboys.
1. Eagles- Yes this seems like the popular pick, but they will take the place of the Giants this year.
2. Carolina- I just hate TB. Carolina will be without Smith at the beginning, but they will be just fine. Solid running game, solid defense, and solid coach. I like them.
3. Lions- Wildcard bound. Book it.
Superbowl- Green Bay - Pats.
1. Gambling on something real. I'm tired of hunting down value in Spanish Soccer and Track and Field. Its getting old hearing gambling tips on tennis from Wiz that never pays off.
2. Fantasy Football- I trimmed down to two teams this year. My old Farmer's Insurance League in Baltimore and my old softball league. I'm pretty excited this time since I spent more than one hour prepping.
3. Sunday mornings are now fun again. Wake up around 7:00am have some coffee, make final decisions on what to bet on, go for a run, then head over to the local bar to watch the games. Now I got Ben doing it this year along with his old neighbor Mike who is from Chicago. Should be fun.
So I was thinking about my predictions for the season and I'm having a tough time picking the AFC. If you buy into the theory that 2-3 new teams will make the playoffs, then we have some tough decisions to make.
AFC: Pats, Steelers, Chargers, Titans, Jaguars, and the Colts
NFC: Cowboys, Packers, Seahawks, Bucs, Giants, and the Skins
So the Pats will win the East and I'm going with the Jags in the South. Colts will hit the wild card, but we will have 3 new teams making the playoffs.
1. Denver- Yes the Broncos. This is more of a vote of no confidence against the Chargers than anything else. And yes, this is the year that Norv will take this team down.
2. Houston- Andre Johnson is the most under-rated player in the game right now. If he can stay healthy and their RB situation gets set, I see them making huge strides.
3. Browns- Sportsguy rips the trades that they made, but I don't understand why. Run defense was terrible and they got two top notch inside guys. I think that they will hold steady at 10-6 and win the division.
NFC: GreenBay, Cowboys, and Seattle will make the playoffs. Green Bay is the best team in the NFC, not the Cowboys.
1. Eagles- Yes this seems like the popular pick, but they will take the place of the Giants this year.
2. Carolina- I just hate TB. Carolina will be without Smith at the beginning, but they will be just fine. Solid running game, solid defense, and solid coach. I like them.
3. Lions- Wildcard bound. Book it.
Superbowl- Green Bay - Pats.
Sep 6, 2008
NFL Week 1: The Refs!
We're back for our weekly installment of predictions for the NFL games. This year's themes: introducing you to the NFL Head Referees in place for 2008! There are 17 head referees in the league -and 17 weeks to the season. How about that!
Week 1 brings us Al Riveron. Never heard of him? Neither have I! He is one of two that have been newly promoted to the head ref position this year. So he's a completely unknown quantity - just like the Week 1 games. We have no idea who is good, who is bad, overrated, underrated, or what. Everyone is presumed average until proven otherwise - and every ref is presumed innocent until guilty of a game-changing call.
(My guess is that he will be doing the Det-Atl barnburner....but watch him show up in Cleveland tomorrow.)
On to the picks:
Det 27, Atl 13. This is similar to Thursday night's game....I'm not sure what Detroit is going to do this year, but Atlanta should be in the bottom 3 of the league.
Sea 17, Buf 16. I don't get all the Buffalo love. "this is their year! 10-6!" a lot of people say. Why? Trent Edwards?
NYJ 24, Mia 16. Some agonizing here. Yes, Chad Pennington knows the Jets playbook - but on offense, can he execute? No. And do you think the NFL/CBS will let Favre lose game 1?
(By the way - Jets were 4-12 last year. The Dolphins were 1-15. So yes- CBS puts their "A" broadcasting team on the opener between the two this year! And for all those groaning that the Browns got 5 prime time games, imagine how many Jets games you will be forced to see this year....)
NE 31, KC 10. Is there something to Brady's foot injury that we don't know about?
Tampa 27, NO 24. Should be a great game, down to the wire. I think New Orleans needs a couple weeks and then they should be firing on all cylinders.
Philly 27, St Louis 20. I have no idea. Really.
Pit 27, Hou 17. Is Houston really that good enough to hang with Pittsburgh on the road? I would love to say yes....but I can't.
Ten 20, Jax 17, OT: A match of two playoff teams from the past year. This is the game that Nantz/Simms should be doing.
Bal 16, Cin 13. I can't believe I am taking Joe Flacco on his opening game rookie year.....but have you seen the Bengals at all? No O-line, no defense....this will be one ugly game.
SD 27, Car 24. A wild hunch here... and I think the Panthers will stay in it until the end.
SF 23, Az 20. Maybe the 49ers that we all expected last year will finally show up one year later.
Ind 27, Chi 10. I think the Bears will be just as bad on offense as they were last year. And why again are many people dissing the Colts?
GB 24, Min 17. I'm supposed to believe in Tavaris Jackson? People doubt the Browns because of Derek Anderson - which I can understand - but they think Tavaris will lead the Vikes to the playoffs? Hello?
Oak 23, Den 20. I am certainly not on any Jay Cutler baandwagon.
Cle 27, Dal 25. In real life, Romeo calls timeout and Dawson nails the 27 yard FG with no time left.....
Best bets: currently 1-0:
Det -3
NYJ -3
NE -15.5
TB +3
TB/NO over 42.5
Pit -6.5
Ten +3
Bal +1.5
Bal/Cin under 37.5
Car +9.5
Car/SD Over 41.5
SF +2.5
Ind -9.5
Ind/Chi Under 44
GB -2
Oak +3
Sep 4, 2008
Oh yeah, by the way...
the NFL season start tonight!
Let's begin our annual attempt to have a winning wagering season (3 out of the last 4!) with Pick 1 of the 2008 NFL year:
NY Giants 27, Washington 10. I'm not sure if the Giants are going to slip or not, but I have no faith in this Washington team.
Best bet:
NY Giants -4.5.
Let's begin our annual attempt to have a winning wagering season (3 out of the last 4!) with Pick 1 of the 2008 NFL year:
NY Giants 27, Washington 10. I'm not sure if the Giants are going to slip or not, but I have no faith in this Washington team.
Best bet:
NY Giants -4.5.
My actual nightmare
First, thanks to all for the kind notes after our son, Martin Kasper, was born. Everyone is doing well and we are adjusting to life (again) with newborn!
But life with a newborn involved little sleep. Martin got up around 1 last night, and Janice took him to the other room. She kept him in there on the rocker for most of the early morning. So I actually slept from 1:30 until I woke up from a nightmare. Here's the dream I had:
Browns down, 25-24, with 20 seconds left but we are driving at the Cowboys 30. We have 4th and 2 at the 30 - with one timeout left. We decide to go for it.
Anderson hits Winslow over the middle at the 15; Winslow runs to the 10 and is tackled with 9 seconds remaining.
Tick...Tick...tick....9....8...7...6..5....4...3...2...1......
No one calls timeout. The game ends; we lose, 25-24.
Hoo boy, did my anti-Romeo feelings from 2006 get all fired up again!
Any psychologists want to help intrepret this one?
But life with a newborn involved little sleep. Martin got up around 1 last night, and Janice took him to the other room. She kept him in there on the rocker for most of the early morning. So I actually slept from 1:30 until I woke up from a nightmare. Here's the dream I had:
Browns down, 25-24, with 20 seconds left but we are driving at the Cowboys 30. We have 4th and 2 at the 30 - with one timeout left. We decide to go for it.
Anderson hits Winslow over the middle at the 15; Winslow runs to the 10 and is tackled with 9 seconds remaining.
Tick...Tick...tick....9....8...7...6..5....4...3...2...1......
No one calls timeout. The game ends; we lose, 25-24.
Hoo boy, did my anti-Romeo feelings from 2006 get all fired up again!
Any psychologists want to help intrepret this one?
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