Nov 30, 2006
Cigars
Quick Question- What is the easiest way to get Cuban Cigars into the US? One of Carol's friends said that he just took them out of the wrapper and the custom agents didn't ask him any questions. Is it that easy? Any thoughts?
Nov 29, 2006
Bowl Games
Did anyone else notice the bowl schedule this year? I'm annoyed that they string the BCS bowl games past New Year's Day, but whatever, I can live with that. But have you seen the two bowl games scheduled for Jan 6th and 7th? C-USA #2 vs Ohio on the 7th and W. Michigan vs Big East 4/5. Now I'm not saying that I won't watch these games (or gamble on them for that matter), but why are they after New Year's Day?
I'm doing my picks now since I might not have time over the next couple of days.
CMichigan -3.5
WV -10
Navy Over 49
Cal -28
USC Over 48
San Jose St. -4
Louisville -27
Colorado St. -2.5
Nebraska +3.5
GA Tech -2.5
Pro
Ravens +3
Indy -7.5
Cowboys -3.5
KC -5
Bears -9
Rams -6.5
I'm doing my picks now since I might not have time over the next couple of days.
CMichigan -3.5
WV -10
Navy Over 49
Cal -28
USC Over 48
San Jose St. -4
Louisville -27
Colorado St. -2.5
Nebraska +3.5
GA Tech -2.5
Pro
Ravens +3
Indy -7.5
Cowboys -3.5
KC -5
Bears -9
Rams -6.5
Nov 26, 2006
Week 12 NFL Picks: Squeeze Play
Well, this is the time of year where teams are sorted out - "squeezed out" of playoff contention. It starts to become clear who the real playoff contenders are and who are just digits to be discarded on the floor by Bob during one of my favorite games.... Squeeze Play!
The Browns, of course, were picked out last week and thrown to the ground as a digit obviously not belonging to the pool table as seen below. They were the digit "1" in the example seen here.
Now, who will be asked to leave t
he Squeeze Play set this week? Here are the picks:Buf 16, Jax 13. The Jags' up and down season continues. And who else out there cut Lee Evans 2 weeks ago?
NYJ 20, Hou 13. Wow - if you need to sleep, watch this one - oh wait, Gus Johnson is announcing the game.
Bal 27, Pit 13. You know, many people over the year ask me "who do you hate more, Baltimore or Pittsburgh?" I usually pause and think about it - not knowing how to answer. Well, if anyone asks me that question again, I just need to think about this week. I want Pittsburgh and Toothlessberger to be exposed as the absolute fraud they are. I'm so pissed we couldn't finish them off last week. It took me about 2 days to get over the Browns' 15-14 loss to the Ravens; I'm still pissed about last Sunday. I want the Ravens to win 99-0 if they could. God, I can't believe I'm saying this. Ravens - beat the hell out of Pittsburgh today.
Cle 27, Cin 24. I had a dream last night that we were losing 21-0 to tbe Bengals in the 2nd quarter when it was called for rain. I hope that's not a sign to come.
Min 24, Az 13. What to say about this?
StL 27, SF 24. Bulger will throw for 3 TDs - AND HE BETTER, since I didn't play Romo in one of my leagues this week!
NO 31, Atl 28. Talking about frauds - here's the Falcons!
Car 17, Was 13. I can't figure out this Panthers team.
NE 20, Chi 17. Should be a classic. And yes, this is a 'punt' pick for the game.
Ind 31, Phi 10. Even the flex schedule can't save Sunday night this week.
Ten 24, NYG 21. I hope the Giants season implodes -a nd I know that means Dallas will become the default champion of the NFC East. I'm already sick of that "BallIn' " jump shot. What does that even mean?
SD 27, Oak 10. I need 6 TD's, LT. Let's get to work.
Sea 31, GB 20. Is Shaun healthy? We will see.
13 best bets for today:
Buf +3
Jax/ Buf Under 35 1/2
Hou/NYJ Under 39 1/2
Bal -3
Min -6.5
SF/Stl Over 44 1/2
NO +3
NO/Atl over 48
Ind -9
Ten +3
SD -13
SD/Oak Under 43
GB/Sea Over 44
( we were 2-1 on Thanksgiving...)
Records to be updated soon.
Nov 23, 2006
Quick Picks
I'll update this later with the lines. Just wanted to get my picks up.
Detroit
Chargers
Indy
USC
USC Under
Louisville
CMichigan
Nebraska
TN
Maryland
WV
Rutgers
Missouri
FSU
VA Tech
Hawaii
Detroit
Chargers
Indy
USC
USC Under
Louisville
CMichigan
Nebraska
TN
Maryland
WV
Rutgers
Missouri
FSU
VA Tech
Hawaii
Nov 21, 2006
Picks
What the hell happened to me???? My picks tanked this week. Now I think I have way too much ground to make up on Eric. 6-10. Ugh. And this picture will haunt my dreams for the next several nights.Pro
Denver (loss)
Jacksonville (win)
College
USC (win)
MD (Loss)
Wake (Loss)
Ga Tech (win)
Ohio St (loss)
Oregon St (win)
Washington St. (loss)
Wisconsin (loss)
Missouri (loss)
ND Over (Loss)
Uconn (loss)
Louisville (win)
W Michigan (win)
Rutgers (loss)
Vegas
Just wanted to say thanks for everyone coming out this past weekend. Had a blast, eventhough it seemed as if we didn't do anything. All I wanted to do was go out there and spend some time with my friends and gamble. We didn't make it to the nice dinner on Saturday, but we had more important things to do at that time, like watch the second half of the USC game. Anyway, just a couple of quick notes from the trip.
1. Sportsbook- Remember that it is a long season. No reason to wager a lot of money on the second half line of the Apple Cup (Washington St. vs Washington) to make up the money you lost earlier in the day. Be patient, like waiting for the Utah St. vs Drake night game in Alaska to make up the losses.
2. Stay away from teams everyone is behind that are undefeated and playing on the road. They will not win. Period. And Wiz, the Rutgers team plane did not crash on the way home.
3. When you have a bunch of degenerate gamblers sitting at one table, searching for a game to bet on, you should just get up a leave and ignore all the talk. Its amazing to how desperate people are when it comes to finding a game to bet on. And I'm including myself in on this one.
4. Rutgers is a Fraud. A fucking fraud. And Eric, I don't want to hear it from you on college football again, until all the games are played.
5. Time out....Time out.
6. I didn't think I would enjoy spending so much time in the sportsbook, but having a table, along with some comfortable chairs made the 12 hours go by so quickly.
7. Got back into playing some poker. Did OK. I just really like the feel of the Mandalay poker room so much more than the Monte and the Mirage.
8. What makes you decide on which casino to stay at? We aren't whales so its not the comps and we aren't cheapskates so its not the low end tables anymore. In my mind it is all about customer service. Friendly dealers and fast drink girls. If I was a manager there, I would just be focused on these two items. I have never seen such a big swing between ultra friendly and just plain mean dealers at one casino. Just crazy. This probably makes me not want to stay at the Mandalay anymore, despite having an amazing sportsbook, nice layout, and a great poker room.
9. I don't mind going into the Sahara or the Golden Nugget, but for some reason I get so disgusted going into the Excalibur. What a shithole. I just feel so dirty.
10. Played a game with Ben on the way home. Got into Baker, which is 1 hour outside of Vegas. Ben asked if I could make it back home in 2.5 hours, which would put us there at 1:30. I said sure, and then forgot about it for a while. I hit some traffic outside of Barstow, but when I got to Victorville, which is about 75 minutes from our place, I thought I was going to be able to make it in time. For the last hour of the drive, this is all that we talked about. I must of averaged close to 100mph on the toll roads back into Dana Point and 75mph on the side roads. As we were approaching our place with only 2 miles to go, I had three minutes left to make it. As I made the last left hand turn with 45 seconds to spare, I hit a fucking red light on the straight away approaching our place, which sent both of us into hysterics. As I pulled away from that intersection somewhat slowly, we both see a speed trap ahead at the St. Regis. Close to 3 cop cars pulling everyone over. Can you imagine how fast I would of been going if I made the left hand turn, going into the straight away with a green light with 45 seconds left to hit the 1:30pm mark? The only good luck I got all weekend and I will take it. Oh, and I pulled into my parking spot at 1:31 exactly. So close.
1. Sportsbook- Remember that it is a long season. No reason to wager a lot of money on the second half line of the Apple Cup (Washington St. vs Washington) to make up the money you lost earlier in the day. Be patient, like waiting for the Utah St. vs Drake night game in Alaska to make up the losses.
2. Stay away from teams everyone is behind that are undefeated and playing on the road. They will not win. Period. And Wiz, the Rutgers team plane did not crash on the way home.
3. When you have a bunch of degenerate gamblers sitting at one table, searching for a game to bet on, you should just get up a leave and ignore all the talk. Its amazing to how desperate people are when it comes to finding a game to bet on. And I'm including myself in on this one.
4. Rutgers is a Fraud. A fucking fraud. And Eric, I don't want to hear it from you on college football again, until all the games are played.
5. Time out....Time out.
6. I didn't think I would enjoy spending so much time in the sportsbook, but having a table, along with some comfortable chairs made the 12 hours go by so quickly.
7. Got back into playing some poker. Did OK. I just really like the feel of the Mandalay poker room so much more than the Monte and the Mirage.
8. What makes you decide on which casino to stay at? We aren't whales so its not the comps and we aren't cheapskates so its not the low end tables anymore. In my mind it is all about customer service. Friendly dealers and fast drink girls. If I was a manager there, I would just be focused on these two items. I have never seen such a big swing between ultra friendly and just plain mean dealers at one casino. Just crazy. This probably makes me not want to stay at the Mandalay anymore, despite having an amazing sportsbook, nice layout, and a great poker room.
9. I don't mind going into the Sahara or the Golden Nugget, but for some reason I get so disgusted going into the Excalibur. What a shithole. I just feel so dirty.
10. Played a game with Ben on the way home. Got into Baker, which is 1 hour outside of Vegas. Ben asked if I could make it back home in 2.5 hours, which would put us there at 1:30. I said sure, and then forgot about it for a while. I hit some traffic outside of Barstow, but when I got to Victorville, which is about 75 minutes from our place, I thought I was going to be able to make it in time. For the last hour of the drive, this is all that we talked about. I must of averaged close to 100mph on the toll roads back into Dana Point and 75mph on the side roads. As we were approaching our place with only 2 miles to go, I had three minutes left to make it. As I made the last left hand turn with 45 seconds to spare, I hit a fucking red light on the straight away approaching our place, which sent both of us into hysterics. As I pulled away from that intersection somewhat slowly, we both see a speed trap ahead at the St. Regis. Close to 3 cop cars pulling everyone over. Can you imagine how fast I would of been going if I made the left hand turn, going into the straight away with a green light with 45 seconds left to hit the 1:30pm mark? The only good luck I got all weekend and I will take it. Oh, and I pulled into my parking spot at 1:31 exactly. So close.
Nov 20, 2006
Thud
Its 4:30 EST on Monday and I am finally up, showered, and moving about like a normal person. Red eye flights just kill me. I can't sleep on a plane. Can't do it. The lack of sleep, combined with not eating a meal since the 1st Half of the Colts/Cowboys game caused me to feel nauseous for the last two hours of the flight. Not good times.... Anyway, had a great time this weekend (although it felt like I was gone for a week for some reason). Some personal highlights (and lowlights)
- Even though I dropped $200 at the craps table, it was worth it for Eric's outcry for all the sports bets gone wrong with each roll. "This is for Rutgers!!!", "This is for the Service Academies!!", "This is for the Cavs!". High comedy.
- On a positive note, I landed in Vegas with about $400 in my wallet, I am home now and still have $302. Includes paying for some small meals, my excellent dinner on Friday, a (losing) bet for my dad, taxis, and airport parking. Not bad at all.
- A quick F-U to NY area teams. Why was I betting on them????? The Nets, Jets, and Rutgers all cost me money. Although I did have the 1st half Cinci line, but I almost felt guilty since Wiz had so much riding on it. Anyway, I broke my cardinal rule of not betting on NY teams
- A moment of weakness on Sunday afternoon, I decided to bet the NYJ money line (vs Bears). My main reasoning? I really wanted to shout out "The Bears are who we thought they were!! The Bears ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!!!!!". Alas, the NYJ are who we thought THEY were.
- Another downer was losing my carefully crafted NBA schedule flow chart. Damn! That had all my wagers on it (including some football). I ended up forgetting which games I picked. I know some of you are saying why can't you remember?? Well, as Dr Henry Jones Sr said in the Indiana Jones movies about the Grail Diary..."I wrote them down so I wouldn't HAVE to remember!" Sigh.
- I was outside for a grand total of 11 minutes the entire weekend. Warrants mentioning.
- Last trip I felt like I didn't play enough poker, this trip I feel like I didn't play enough Black Jack.
- My near vomitting aside, I had a great experience with TED airlines. They upgraded me to "Economy Plus" for free which includes seats in the front of the plane which are a little wider and have more leg room front to back. Much more room than SW. Plus, they offered a movie and some TV which was a nice touch. I had nightmares of a small prop plane pulling up to the terminal since I had never flown them before, but I was pleasantly surprised. So if you are looking for low fares, don't be afraid to check out TED.
- There is a chance I can go out in March. Its up for debate in the Senate over the next two months.
- Overall I was happy with the Mandalay. The only negative is the isolation factor. You kind of take for granted being able to "change it up", and quickly walk to the other casinos (MGM, NYNY, etc). But the rooms were really nice, and the poker room and SB are fabulous. The tables could have been a notch lower, but whatever. I would stay there again, but I'm not committed.
- Had a great time, and look forward to seeing everyone in the Outer Banks!
- Even though I dropped $200 at the craps table, it was worth it for Eric's outcry for all the sports bets gone wrong with each roll. "This is for Rutgers!!!", "This is for the Service Academies!!", "This is for the Cavs!". High comedy.
- On a positive note, I landed in Vegas with about $400 in my wallet, I am home now and still have $302. Includes paying for some small meals, my excellent dinner on Friday, a (losing) bet for my dad, taxis, and airport parking. Not bad at all.
- A quick F-U to NY area teams. Why was I betting on them????? The Nets, Jets, and Rutgers all cost me money. Although I did have the 1st half Cinci line, but I almost felt guilty since Wiz had so much riding on it. Anyway, I broke my cardinal rule of not betting on NY teams
- A moment of weakness on Sunday afternoon, I decided to bet the NYJ money line (vs Bears). My main reasoning? I really wanted to shout out "The Bears are who we thought they were!! The Bears ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!!!!!". Alas, the NYJ are who we thought THEY were.
- Another downer was losing my carefully crafted NBA schedule flow chart. Damn! That had all my wagers on it (including some football). I ended up forgetting which games I picked. I know some of you are saying why can't you remember?? Well, as Dr Henry Jones Sr said in the Indiana Jones movies about the Grail Diary..."I wrote them down so I wouldn't HAVE to remember!" Sigh.
- I was outside for a grand total of 11 minutes the entire weekend. Warrants mentioning.
- Last trip I felt like I didn't play enough poker, this trip I feel like I didn't play enough Black Jack.
- My near vomitting aside, I had a great experience with TED airlines. They upgraded me to "Economy Plus" for free which includes seats in the front of the plane which are a little wider and have more leg room front to back. Much more room than SW. Plus, they offered a movie and some TV which was a nice touch. I had nightmares of a small prop plane pulling up to the terminal since I had never flown them before, but I was pleasantly surprised. So if you are looking for low fares, don't be afraid to check out TED.
- There is a chance I can go out in March. Its up for debate in the Senate over the next two months.
- Overall I was happy with the Mandalay. The only negative is the isolation factor. You kind of take for granted being able to "change it up", and quickly walk to the other casinos (MGM, NYNY, etc). But the rooms were really nice, and the poker room and SB are fabulous. The tables could have been a notch lower, but whatever. I would stay there again, but I'm not committed.
- Had a great time, and look forward to seeing everyone in the Outer Banks!
Nov 16, 2006
Week 11 NFL Picks: Blank Check!
Crap! I had this post all done and ready to go - comparing the trip to Vegas to the Blank Check game, where contestants fill in a check, add it to the price of a prize, and if it falls between a certain range, they win the prize and the check - but just as I was about to post, my IE crashed. $$#$%#&(^^&(*$$#$%#&#$^@$&^.
Anyway, here are my picks:
KC -9.5
KC/Oak under 35 1/2
Ind -1
NO/Cin Over 51
Ten +13
Bal/Atl Under 41
Stl +6.5
Hou -2.5
NE/GB Over 44
TB -3
Chi -6.5
Mia -3.5
Az -2.5
Det/Az Under 46
Sea/SF Under 44 1/2
SD/Den Over 42
And if I lose my bets, I'll still have the souvenirs of the losing betting slips - like this contestant, who had his check voided by Bob....
I can't believe....
1. I can't believe we haven't heard Derek protesting the possible A's move to Fremont. I also can't believe he's not in this video:
Protest video for the A's.
2. I can't believe it's been 10 years since...
a) Ohio St. beat Indiana 27-17 to clinch its first trip to the Rose Bowl in 14 years, and...
b) I married the love of my life, Janice.
(everybody together....awwwww. But notice which event came first in the list above...)
10 years have flown by. Wow.
Protest video for the A's.
2. I can't believe it's been 10 years since...
a) Ohio St. beat Indiana 27-17 to clinch its first trip to the Rose Bowl in 14 years, and...
b) I married the love of my life, Janice.
(everybody together....awwwww. But notice which event came first in the list above...)
10 years have flown by. Wow.
Nov 15, 2006
Football update
Here are the long-awaited results and standings of teh Derek v Eric challenge:
Derek:
before week 8: he was 50-61-1.
Week 8: 10-6
Week 9: 11-6 (one extra game)
Week 10: 9-7
Overall: 80-80-1.
Eric:
before week 8: 58-48-6
Week 8: 5-11
Week 9: 8-8
Week 10: 9-7
Overall: 80-74-6, up 2 1/2 games.
Derek - do you want to take a pass this weekend since we will be in Vegas?
And I expect an apology from you after you compare me to Saddam, yet wonder why "for some reason decide(s) to root against me." (See Derek Rant, 10/16).
Derek:
before week 8: he was 50-61-1.
Week 8: 10-6
Week 9: 11-6 (one extra game)
Week 10: 9-7
Overall: 80-80-1.
Eric:
before week 8: 58-48-6
Week 8: 5-11
Week 9: 8-8
Week 10: 9-7
Overall: 80-74-6, up 2 1/2 games.
Derek - do you want to take a pass this weekend since we will be in Vegas?
And I expect an apology from you after you compare me to Saddam, yet wonder why "for some reason decide(s) to root against me." (See Derek Rant, 10/16).
I believe....
1) I believe that Freddie and Warren don't like Almond Joys, even though they have never tried it.... so I'll just take it from their Halloween basket without them knowing. What are they missing?
2) I believe that the Browns have a shot at the playoffs this year. Hear me out.
First, we've got to predict a record for the final playoff team. With NY Jets & KC tied at that last spot now at 5-4, I think 9-7 will be in a tie for the final spot.
Now let's take a look at the Browns - their past (3-6) and future this year.
Home games: The worst team the Browns have played at home so far is 5-4, and the Browns won that game. They lost at home to teams with records of 6-3, 7-2 and 7-2.
"Now Eric", you say, " you're not going to somehow say that the Browns are going to beat a 7-2 team at home in the 2nd half of the year, are you?"
I don't have to.
The best team the Browns play at home the rest of the way - 4 games - is a 5-4 Chiefs team. The other teams are 4-5, 3-6 and 2-7.
So I believe there is a chance - not a great chance, but a possibility - that we could sweep these games and go 4-0.
Now for the road games; we've played 5 road games so far. We've lost to a 7-2 team; played two 5-4 teams and spilt, and beat a 2-7 team.
We have a 7-2 team, a 3-6 team and a 2-7 team upcoming on the road.
Why can't we win 2 of those?
That would give us 6 wins in the last 9 games, putting us at 9-7.
And a 9-7 record would most likely tie us with the Jets and Chiefs , who we have already beaten (Jets) or plan to beat (Chiefs, in Cleveland). There's the Jaguars also at 5-4, but we won't play them this year.
And for those that pooh-pooh this argument, but think the Steelers can still get back in it, let me compare two teams:
Team A: Record: 3-6. In those 9 games: 4 home, 5 away. Opponents record so far: 48-33
Team B: Record: 3-6. In those 9 games: 5 home, 4 away. Opponents record so far: 44-37
So Team B has played 1 more game at home against a weaker schedule, and still has the same record as Team A.
Of course, Team A is the Browns and Team B is the Steelers.
That's why this Sunday's game is sooo important. We need to prove we are better. At home.
3) So I've been thinking about the elections. I'm trying to figure out the Republicans' loss - and make no mistake, the Republicans LOST it, the Democrats didn't win it.
The Republicans shot themselves in the foot so many times over the past year:
"Bridge to Nowhere"
Doing nothing on immigration, until the fence... and then...
Not publicizing the fence
Not caring about the deficit
The whole Rumsfeld fiasco
and so on...
I finally gave up and said "It's as if they didn't WANT to win..."
and then a light bulb went off in my head.
That's the plan. They sacrificed this election.... in order to win 2008.
They knew that the Speaker of the House -and then the DE FACTO leader of the Democratic party - would be Nancy Pelosi.
Nancy may be smart, but certainly does not come across as a warm and fuzzy lady. She seems to be - and can be portrayed as - a cold and calculating liberal.
The Republicans are gambling that turning over the House to a lady with this demeanor is a small price to pay - in order to show the people that liberal women would be disastrous for the country. (Due to their politics).
And - what a coincidence!!! - who is the leader right now for the Democratic nomination for President in 2008???
Of course, Hillary.
After two years of Pelosi, would this country be ready to elect Hillary President as well? They're thinking no.
So - sacrifice 2006 with the intention of keeping the White House in 2008 by effectively disqualifying Hillary due to Pelosi's leadership and style.
Will this work? You males out there tell me - would you vote for a country with Hillary and Nancy as our leaders?
I'm not judging, I'm just asking the question....
2) I believe that the Browns have a shot at the playoffs this year. Hear me out.
First, we've got to predict a record for the final playoff team. With NY Jets & KC tied at that last spot now at 5-4, I think 9-7 will be in a tie for the final spot.
Now let's take a look at the Browns - their past (3-6) and future this year.
Home games: The worst team the Browns have played at home so far is 5-4, and the Browns won that game. They lost at home to teams with records of 6-3, 7-2 and 7-2.
"Now Eric", you say, " you're not going to somehow say that the Browns are going to beat a 7-2 team at home in the 2nd half of the year, are you?"
I don't have to.
The best team the Browns play at home the rest of the way - 4 games - is a 5-4 Chiefs team. The other teams are 4-5, 3-6 and 2-7.
So I believe there is a chance - not a great chance, but a possibility - that we could sweep these games and go 4-0.
Now for the road games; we've played 5 road games so far. We've lost to a 7-2 team; played two 5-4 teams and spilt, and beat a 2-7 team.
We have a 7-2 team, a 3-6 team and a 2-7 team upcoming on the road.
Why can't we win 2 of those?
That would give us 6 wins in the last 9 games, putting us at 9-7.
And a 9-7 record would most likely tie us with the Jets and Chiefs , who we have already beaten (Jets) or plan to beat (Chiefs, in Cleveland). There's the Jaguars also at 5-4, but we won't play them this year.
And for those that pooh-pooh this argument, but think the Steelers can still get back in it, let me compare two teams:
Team A: Record: 3-6. In those 9 games: 4 home, 5 away. Opponents record so far: 48-33
Team B: Record: 3-6. In those 9 games: 5 home, 4 away. Opponents record so far: 44-37
So Team B has played 1 more game at home against a weaker schedule, and still has the same record as Team A.
Of course, Team A is the Browns and Team B is the Steelers.
That's why this Sunday's game is sooo important. We need to prove we are better. At home.
3) So I've been thinking about the elections. I'm trying to figure out the Republicans' loss - and make no mistake, the Republicans LOST it, the Democrats didn't win it.
The Republicans shot themselves in the foot so many times over the past year:
"Bridge to Nowhere"
Doing nothing on immigration, until the fence... and then...
Not publicizing the fence
Not caring about the deficit
The whole Rumsfeld fiasco
and so on...
I finally gave up and said "It's as if they didn't WANT to win..."
and then a light bulb went off in my head.
That's the plan. They sacrificed this election.... in order to win 2008.
They knew that the Speaker of the House -and then the DE FACTO leader of the Democratic party - would be Nancy Pelosi.
Nancy may be smart, but certainly does not come across as a warm and fuzzy lady. She seems to be - and can be portrayed as - a cold and calculating liberal.
The Republicans are gambling that turning over the House to a lady with this demeanor is a small price to pay - in order to show the people that liberal women would be disastrous for the country. (Due to their politics).
And - what a coincidence!!! - who is the leader right now for the Democratic nomination for President in 2008???
Of course, Hillary.
After two years of Pelosi, would this country be ready to elect Hillary President as well? They're thinking no.
So - sacrifice 2006 with the intention of keeping the White House in 2008 by effectively disqualifying Hillary due to Pelosi's leadership and style.
Will this work? You males out there tell me - would you vote for a country with Hillary and Nancy as our leaders?
I'm not judging, I'm just asking the question....
Nov 13, 2006
Things I really like right now
1. NBC's selection of the Sunday night game. This should of happened years ago. The best idea from the NFL in a long time. I'm just worried this doesn't turn into the NFC East Sunday Night Game. Last night's game was so nice to have.
2. Idiots like JD Drew. For some reason this made me smile when I saw that he opted out of the last three years of his $36 million deal. What an idiot. What is he thinking?
3. College Football- Love it that everyone is going crazy over Rutgers. Let's see them win out first and then we can talk about the National Championship. And this is the genius behind the people who run College Football BCS rankings. Eric, who is not a college football fan, is all fired up and watching regular season Big East games and Pac 10 games because of BCS implications. REGULAR SEASON GAMES!!!!! The conferences are cleaning up because of this in television contracts. Throw in the boatload of money each conference gets for bowl games, and the happy alumni that gets to have a nice winter vacation to go to a bowl, and this my friend, is why we don't see a playoff system in college football. Every year, college football is the lead story on every single sports talk show for 2 straight months since they are all bitching about the system and who is getting robbed. THEY WANT IT THAT WAY. This forces you to watch to see if USC will lose against Cal, or if Rutgers can beat WV, or Florida can beat out which ever cupcake SEC team they need to play. Its come to a point this year, where OSU vs Michigan isn't the top college football story right now. Its Rutgers and how they might get robbed. Why does this surprise everyone???
2. Idiots like JD Drew. For some reason this made me smile when I saw that he opted out of the last three years of his $36 million deal. What an idiot. What is he thinking?
3. College Football- Love it that everyone is going crazy over Rutgers. Let's see them win out first and then we can talk about the National Championship. And this is the genius behind the people who run College Football BCS rankings. Eric, who is not a college football fan, is all fired up and watching regular season Big East games and Pac 10 games because of BCS implications. REGULAR SEASON GAMES!!!!! The conferences are cleaning up because of this in television contracts. Throw in the boatload of money each conference gets for bowl games, and the happy alumni that gets to have a nice winter vacation to go to a bowl, and this my friend, is why we don't see a playoff system in college football. Every year, college football is the lead story on every single sports talk show for 2 straight months since they are all bitching about the system and who is getting robbed. THEY WANT IT THAT WAY. This forces you to watch to see if USC will lose against Cal, or if Rutgers can beat WV, or Florida can beat out which ever cupcake SEC team they need to play. Its come to a point this year, where OSU vs Michigan isn't the top college football story right now. Its Rutgers and how they might get robbed. Why does this surprise everyone???
Nov 12, 2006
Emptying of the mind
A lot of topics to post on that are flying around in my mind. Please indulge me in the cleaning out the cobwebs of my mind:
1) Janice and I had a great trip to OC last weekend. On Saturday we went on a boat ride - that's where that picture was taken of me. Three hours on the boat sailing the seas about 1-2 miles off the shore. I have a feeling that I enjoyed it the least - I wasn't feeling too good for about the first hour until I stood up for the rest of the ride. I wasn't seasick, but just uncomfortable.
2) Sunday was the Browns-Chargers game; the Browns kept it close for a while (leading with 1 min left in the 3rd!) before losing, 32-25. I hope those 6 FGs by Dawson won the game for you, Derek. There were a lot of Browns fans there that surprised Derek. Chargers fans were nice to us; there were plenty of fights we saw 2 section over in the 4th, mostly caused by alcohol.
3) Charlie Frye did not look good - too many throws into double and triple coverage; he missed more than a few open receivers, and there was the gift TD that he gave SD by putting the ball on the ground at his own 5.
Derek - a neutral observer - was not impressed. Period. However, one professional writer was impressed:
Charlie Frye's better than I thought he was.
Yep! Of course, Peter King.
4) I did get Derek to root for the Browns and to wear the vaunted 26-year-old Browns scarf during the game. So that was a success.
5) I didn't do well with the jet lag for the quick trip: I was up at 4 am on Saturday and 3:30 on Sunday (Pacific Time). Just couldn't adjust quickly. And that, coupled with the game on Sunday, meant I was completely wiped out at 8 pm on Sunday. barley made it to the end of the Pats- Colts game!
6) I have never been a fervent cult follower of Starbucks, but....
the Maple Macchiato is heaven. Wow.
Memo to Peter King: the Starbucks in terminal G of the O'Hare airport is a good one. Those Maple Macchiatos (2, one on Thu morning and one on Sat morning) were perfect. The yogurt parfait was a bit watery, however.
7) One quick note on the election: boy, am I pissed at George Bush right now. Congrats on the Democrats by the way on winning.... they successfully turned this into a national referendum without providing any specifics on what they would do differently.
Anyway, Bush ends up firing Rumsfeld after the election. What the hell, George?
You knew he was unpopular 6-12 months before the election... yet you kept him around. I thought it was because you still had faith in him and his performance - which is entirely possible given the constant (and mostly unwarranted ) witchhunt against him...
But you get rid of him. Why? What the hell changed? the election? What does that matter?
You should have either:
a) fired him 6 months ago - AND MOST LIKELY SAVING 5-10 SEATS IN THE HOUSE AND 1-2 IN THE SENATE; OR
b) stick to your PRINCIPLES and re-iterate that you believe in him despite the unpopularity.
Why the hell did you fire Rumsfeld NOW? I can't explain it....
Well, I have one possible theory why... it's a devious plan for 2008. I'll explain that, and how the Browns can make the playoffs, in a future post.
(PS - I'm spell-checking this post; it suggest I replace "FGs" above with "fags". How is that in the dictionary????)
1) Janice and I had a great trip to OC last weekend. On Saturday we went on a boat ride - that's where that picture was taken of me. Three hours on the boat sailing the seas about 1-2 miles off the shore. I have a feeling that I enjoyed it the least - I wasn't feeling too good for about the first hour until I stood up for the rest of the ride. I wasn't seasick, but just uncomfortable.
2) Sunday was the Browns-Chargers game; the Browns kept it close for a while (leading with 1 min left in the 3rd!) before losing, 32-25. I hope those 6 FGs by Dawson won the game for you, Derek. There were a lot of Browns fans there that surprised Derek. Chargers fans were nice to us; there were plenty of fights we saw 2 section over in the 4th, mostly caused by alcohol.
3) Charlie Frye did not look good - too many throws into double and triple coverage; he missed more than a few open receivers, and there was the gift TD that he gave SD by putting the ball on the ground at his own 5.
Derek - a neutral observer - was not impressed. Period. However, one professional writer was impressed:
Charlie Frye's better than I thought he was.
Yep! Of course, Peter King.
4) I did get Derek to root for the Browns and to wear the vaunted 26-year-old Browns scarf during the game. So that was a success.
5) I didn't do well with the jet lag for the quick trip: I was up at 4 am on Saturday and 3:30 on Sunday (Pacific Time). Just couldn't adjust quickly. And that, coupled with the game on Sunday, meant I was completely wiped out at 8 pm on Sunday. barley made it to the end of the Pats- Colts game!
6) I have never been a fervent cult follower of Starbucks, but....
the Maple Macchiato is heaven. Wow.
Memo to Peter King: the Starbucks in terminal G of the O'Hare airport is a good one. Those Maple Macchiatos (2, one on Thu morning and one on Sat morning) were perfect. The yogurt parfait was a bit watery, however.
7) One quick note on the election: boy, am I pissed at George Bush right now. Congrats on the Democrats by the way on winning.... they successfully turned this into a national referendum without providing any specifics on what they would do differently.
Anyway, Bush ends up firing Rumsfeld after the election. What the hell, George?
You knew he was unpopular 6-12 months before the election... yet you kept him around. I thought it was because you still had faith in him and his performance - which is entirely possible given the constant (and mostly unwarranted ) witchhunt against him...
But you get rid of him. Why? What the hell changed? the election? What does that matter?
You should have either:
a) fired him 6 months ago - AND MOST LIKELY SAVING 5-10 SEATS IN THE HOUSE AND 1-2 IN THE SENATE; OR
b) stick to your PRINCIPLES and re-iterate that you believe in him despite the unpopularity.
Why the hell did you fire Rumsfeld NOW? I can't explain it....
Well, I have one possible theory why... it's a devious plan for 2008. I'll explain that, and how the Browns can make the playoffs, in a future post.
(PS - I'm spell-checking this post; it suggest I replace "FGs" above with "fags". How is that in the dictionary????)
Crickets....
I'm glad the Zahn boys are still around, I was beginning to think that you guys left the country following Tuesday's results.
I hope you guys are looking forward to next weekend. Are you already scoping out some high value games for betting? I wish I could be there, I'm bummed I can't go.
I'm in DE right now, and can't watch the Pats Jets game. Damn I hate not having Sunday Ticket. I'm addicted.
I hope you guys are looking forward to next weekend. Are you already scoping out some high value games for betting? I wish I could be there, I'm bummed I can't go.
I'm in DE right now, and can't watch the Pats Jets game. Damn I hate not having Sunday Ticket. I'm addicted.
Week 10 NFL Picks: "The Race Game"
Yes, I am racing to try to get my picks in for this week. It feels like I have only 45 seconds to get my picks in for today. Here we go:
KC 27, Mia 17. Chicago gave the game away to Miami last weekend. Miami won't be as lucky this week.
Jax 24, Hou 13. Do these two teams play every 3rd week?
Cin 26, SD 20. I'm not impressed with SD. If you put pressure on Rivers, he's toast.
Atl 20, Cle 13. The worst rushing D in the league going against Vick, Dunn and the Falcons- on turf. Yikes.
Bal 27, Ten 17. McNair will be ready.
Ind 31, Buf 17. A typical 14 point win for the Colts with the questions on the team (Rush D) still lingering.
NO 27, Pit 24. Is this the week that a) I finally pick against Pit, and b) they find themselves and win? Of course it is.
Phi 24, Was 10. I don't want to say this is a lock, but....
NYG 20, Chi 17. Should be a great game.
Min 27, GB 20. I don't care about this year's version of the team - throw the records out when these two play in the dome. It's a shootout.
NE 28, NYJ 10. I'm still unimpressed with the Jets after the Browns game 2 weeks ago.
Det 27, SF 13. I like Kitna and co. in this game. Who knows what type of team the 9ers are...
Den 20, Oak 7. Just like the 13-3 game a few weeks back.
Stl 23, Sea 20. Another fun game when these two get together.
Dak 30, Az 17. I'd LOVE for Parcells to blow his top if they lose, but they won't.
Car 20, TB 17. It will be locser than people think.
16 best bets:
KC +1
Cin +1
Bal/Ten over 38
NO +5.5
NO/Pit over 46
Phi -7
Phi/Was under 41 1/2
GB/Min Over 39 1/2
NE -10
Det -6
Det/SF Under 46
Den -9
Den/Oak under 33
Stl +3
Dal -6.5
TB +9.5
And Derek - who's better in the NFL,a team at 8-7-1 or 8-8? A tie game is half a win and half a loss. THat's how it is judged as.
Hopefully, this will be my result at the end of the day:
And Derek will pull the lever and see..
Nov 11, 2006
The Ace of Spades
Now that Saddam is on his way out, we have a new target. This is my enemy!!! Yes he looks friendly enough, but it is coming down to crunch time in our little competition.Eric: 71-67-6
Derek: 71-73-1
Now, we need a little clarification on the rules of the contest. Is it the person with the most wins, or is it the person with the best winning percentage?
Before I get onto the picks, can I just say that I love Harrison Ford!!! Watching Star Wars/Empire/Jedi on HBO this morning and its just amazing to see that the only real difference between the old trilogy and the new trilogy is Harrison Ford.
And this brings me to my next little subject. Whenever I drive and I'm being a little too aggressive, I always tell my passenger "Hang on Chewy" and its usually Ben, Jon, or someone like that who will always respond with a Chewy yell or at least chuckles. Well now that Carol is the main person riding shotgun, she gets a little offended when I call her Chewy. She wants me to call her Leiah, but I can't since she never rides shotgun, unless its Chewy driving, but since I'm Han, then she's got to be Chewy. The wedding was almost called off as I went through this explanation with her.
Anyway, onto the picks:
Terps -3.5
S Florida -10
PSU Under 45
BC -29.5
Arkansas -5.5
Washington -19
ND -11.5
ND Over 54
Uconn +8
Illinois -3
Wake +8.5
Clemson -18.5
UCLA +2
USC -8.5
I hate all the pro games this week.
Chicago Pickem
Ravens -7
Nov 8, 2006
One more casualty from last night
I'll have more thoughts on the election later, but first, we have to mention some words about Jim Leach.
Jim Leach, R-IA, was my congressman when I was in Iowa. He started serving in 1976 and is widely known as one of the top 10-20 liberal Republicans in the house. The district was redrawn in 00, causing him to be placed in the more Democratic areas of Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. Gore and Kerry both carried this district, but he kept getting elected.
He is widely regarded as an honorable man who ofter touts his integrity (and it is genuine).
Two positions made him stick out this year:
1) He was one of 5-10 Republicans against the Iraq War.
2) He was the co-sponsor of the Internet Gambling Bill. I read somewhere that most gambling interests fear Leach (he is chairman or vice-chair of the Banking Committee) more than any other Rep.
He lost last night by about 500-1000 votes to a college professor who ran in 04 (Leach won, 52-48, in 04).
It is very easy to believe that the votes he lost by were U of Iowa Students that voted against Leach due to the Internet Poker ban.
Jim Leach, R-IA, was my congressman when I was in Iowa. He started serving in 1976 and is widely known as one of the top 10-20 liberal Republicans in the house. The district was redrawn in 00, causing him to be placed in the more Democratic areas of Cedar Rapids and Iowa City. Gore and Kerry both carried this district, but he kept getting elected.
He is widely regarded as an honorable man who ofter touts his integrity (and it is genuine).
Two positions made him stick out this year:
1) He was one of 5-10 Republicans against the Iraq War.
2) He was the co-sponsor of the Internet Gambling Bill. I read somewhere that most gambling interests fear Leach (he is chairman or vice-chair of the Banking Committee) more than any other Rep.
He lost last night by about 500-1000 votes to a college professor who ran in 04 (Leach won, 52-48, in 04).
It is very easy to believe that the votes he lost by were U of Iowa Students that voted against Leach due to the Internet Poker ban.
Nov 7, 2006
Election Day Live Blog
We're live from the basement in front of the big screen TV as we await the results from the 2006 Elections. We are also having our traditional, all-American meal of hot dogs, french fries and apple pie.
We'll try to live blog this as we keep up with the results as they come in.
6:52: First exit poll results coming in - and they are not good for Bush and the Rep's. 60% in exit polls are making their vote based on national issues; corruption is showing up as one of the top issues on voter's minds. Late deciders are breaking 3-2 (60-40) for the D candidate.
Take this with a grain of salt, based on my last post on exit polls. We'll see.... first significant polls close at 7.
7:02. Oooh! Virginia is in........ and it's too close to call. Really? What a shock.
Brit Hume is explaining the Fox graphics. They have a "balance of power" bar - "Don't eat it!" says Brit, trying to inject some humor. OK, there, Brit.
7:17. Diet Squirt...... yummmmmm
7:21: First real results...our friend Anne Northup - KY Dist 3 - (Louisville) - 53% in - tied 50-50. Hoo boy.
7:35: Is this the night we are going to have? In IN-9, with 17% of the vote in, over 29,000 votes, the Rep leads the Dem by SEVEN votes. (14,761 to 14, 754).
7:49: Allen up 55-45 in VA with 11% in. I have no idea where these votes are coming from. One republican advisor said turnout in SW Virginia was huge and should carry Allen over by 30,000 votes. Who knows.
8:03. 25% in in VA; Webb now leads Allen by 1,500 out of 550,000 votes so far...
8:25. The smartest person in America just got done talking. One big issue that Michael Barone brought up - in IN 9, suburb of Cincinnati, there is a suburb county called Dearborn County.
Turnout is up 27% from 2002. In 02, 57% of the votes went to the Rep - but now, it looks like 53% is going to the Republican.
So the Republicans are turning out the vote -but it may not be voters that will vote for the Reps!
Also - wow, this is amazing - the marriage proposal will PASS in Virginia. Gay marriage will fail in VA by about 58-42.
And if this holds up, traditional marriage winning 58-42 - and Allen loses, well, that will be a blunder by Allen of the BIGGEST proportions.
8:40. Well, both Santorum (in PA) and DeWine (OH) has been called as Democrats wins (Casey and Brown). Ohio will miss DeWine.
8:58: Mort Kondracke and Fred Barnes almost came to blows -Mort pretty much called Fred a liar - "Fred, that's just not so" - about people talking about the Dems taking over the Seante as of 2 weeks ago. The sexual tension there was palpable.
9:15: More polls close, including MD; VA is showing a 7,000 Allen lead with about 66% in. The big question there is wherther the No Va votes have been counted already; according to our guests, Chuck Schumer and Ken Melhman, the answer is " very little" or "a substantial majority"...... Why do we have partisan guests on again?
9:29: OK, first signs of bad news for Republicans.. they say Steele will lose in MD; in fact, they have called it. In the big six house races in IN and KY, already 3 races have been called for the Dems. Not good.
And now RI has been called for the Democrats - Lincoln Chafee loses.
9:44. Fox News has called the MD Governorship for OMalley. Well, good luck there, Maryland. Don't expect to shop at a Wal Mart anytime soon.
9:49: I think everyone is coming to the foregone conculsion that the House will go democratic. The Senate looks like a 3-out-of-5 battle between MO, TN, AZ, VA, and MT.
10:10: All three IN House races that were close - districts 2, 8, and 9 - have gone D. A Connecticut seat has lost as well. However, it looks like a couple of southern seats - FL seats, GA - seems to be in the R column.
Is this is wave, or is this the Northeast/Midwest independents rebelling, but the rest of the R's staying with the party? We will see.
10:20: The northeast massacre of Republicans continue; Jay, you are happy to know that Charlie Bass- NH-2 - has lost. This race wasn't even on the map 3 months ago.
Good news - the Northern Ky Rep - Geoff Davis - has held on. Another piece of evidence that the Rep get out the vote effort works - but works regionally, and certainly not in the NE and Mid-Atlantic.
10:30: Everyone is fascinated by the Va race. Where the hell are the non-reporting precincts? 94% in, Allen by 30,000. I'm sure there will be lawsuits here, no matter what.
Haven't seen any numbers from MO or TN yet - that's just as big.
10:45: Apparently, one of the 16 precincts in Ohio with problems is in Cincinnati, so we won't have results from OH-1 (W. Cincinnati) for a while now. However, OH-2 (Jean Schmidt's and Don Hershey's district) is starting to come in, and Schmidt leads by 4% with about half of the vote reamining. If this changes, then it is free wine for everyone.
10"50: 95% in in VA; still Allen by 28,000 or so. Michael Barone says the outstadning precincts are in both urban (Norfolk) and rural/beach/suburbs. Barone said it is a mix. In the DC Metro area, ALL ARE COUNTED, according to Barone.
36 precincts from Loudon county, 33 precinct from Prince William are still out. Barone says these couties are pretty much 50/50.
Barone is saying this may be headed for a recount. 36 days, plus or minus a week. You heard it here first.
10:51: Now, more news from VA: State Law says that if the result is within 1% (which it looks like it most certainly will), the losing candidate can call for a recount - and there it goes! It's automatic. Hoo boy.
10:57: Two quick notes:
1) Steele HAS NOT conceded yet, according to instapundit and NRO's The Corner. He does not believe the Exit Polls.
2) THERE HAVE BEEN NO VOTES counted in St Louis and Kansas City yet for the MO Senate race. Is this fishy, or what?
More House races fall - Heath Shuler is coming to Washington. Good luck. He beat a R incumbent in NC.
11:10: NEWS FLASH
THE WASHINGTON POST HAS WITHDRAWN THEIR PROJECTION OF CARDIN WINNING THE MARYLAND SENATE RACE
Fox has not, yet.
11:21: Fox has declared the Democrats will take over the House - ironically, by carrying Tom Delay's seat. Welcome Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker.
Still no word on VA - now within 11,000 votes, TN (Corker (r) by 4%) or fraud-laden MO.
11:28: And now the other NH house district - NH 1 - has fallen to the democrats. This is a seat that was not on a radar screen - and is clearly a sign of the regional sweep of this election.
11:35: Barone was on talking about Maryland - and frankly, he can't understand the withdraw. Steele is running well behind Ehrlich's numbers in 02 - he talked about Calvert county (Ehrlich 63%, Steele 52% this year) and PG county. The one wildcard is the black vote - will Steele get substantially more black vote than Ehrlich? WE will see.
11:59: Wow. Brit Hume signs off with the latest VA totals -Webb is now up 2500 out of 2.4 million cast, 99% in. Recount is definite.
12:40: Corker (R) wins in TN. The inner city MO votes are now coming in for McCaskill (D) in MO; she now leads by 1100 with about 70% of the vote in. No one is sure what the hell is going on in Montana right now.
It looks like control of the Senate may - MAY - be held up in the Virginia recounts over the next few weeks.
We'll try to live blog this as we keep up with the results as they come in.
6:52: First exit poll results coming in - and they are not good for Bush and the Rep's. 60% in exit polls are making their vote based on national issues; corruption is showing up as one of the top issues on voter's minds. Late deciders are breaking 3-2 (60-40) for the D candidate.
Take this with a grain of salt, based on my last post on exit polls. We'll see.... first significant polls close at 7.
7:02. Oooh! Virginia is in........ and it's too close to call. Really? What a shock.
Brit Hume is explaining the Fox graphics. They have a "balance of power" bar - "Don't eat it!" says Brit, trying to inject some humor. OK, there, Brit.
7:17. Diet Squirt...... yummmmmm
7:21: First real results...our friend Anne Northup - KY Dist 3 - (Louisville) - 53% in - tied 50-50. Hoo boy.
7:35: Is this the night we are going to have? In IN-9, with 17% of the vote in, over 29,000 votes, the Rep leads the Dem by SEVEN votes. (14,761 to 14, 754).
7:49: Allen up 55-45 in VA with 11% in. I have no idea where these votes are coming from. One republican advisor said turnout in SW Virginia was huge and should carry Allen over by 30,000 votes. Who knows.
8:03. 25% in in VA; Webb now leads Allen by 1,500 out of 550,000 votes so far...
8:25. The smartest person in America just got done talking. One big issue that Michael Barone brought up - in IN 9, suburb of Cincinnati, there is a suburb county called Dearborn County.
Turnout is up 27% from 2002. In 02, 57% of the votes went to the Rep - but now, it looks like 53% is going to the Republican.
So the Republicans are turning out the vote -but it may not be voters that will vote for the Reps!
Also - wow, this is amazing - the marriage proposal will PASS in Virginia. Gay marriage will fail in VA by about 58-42.
And if this holds up, traditional marriage winning 58-42 - and Allen loses, well, that will be a blunder by Allen of the BIGGEST proportions.
8:40. Well, both Santorum (in PA) and DeWine (OH) has been called as Democrats wins (Casey and Brown). Ohio will miss DeWine.
8:58: Mort Kondracke and Fred Barnes almost came to blows -Mort pretty much called Fred a liar - "Fred, that's just not so" - about people talking about the Dems taking over the Seante as of 2 weeks ago. The sexual tension there was palpable.
9:15: More polls close, including MD; VA is showing a 7,000 Allen lead with about 66% in. The big question there is wherther the No Va votes have been counted already; according to our guests, Chuck Schumer and Ken Melhman, the answer is " very little" or "a substantial majority"...... Why do we have partisan guests on again?
9:29: OK, first signs of bad news for Republicans.. they say Steele will lose in MD; in fact, they have called it. In the big six house races in IN and KY, already 3 races have been called for the Dems. Not good.
And now RI has been called for the Democrats - Lincoln Chafee loses.
9:44. Fox News has called the MD Governorship for OMalley. Well, good luck there, Maryland. Don't expect to shop at a Wal Mart anytime soon.
9:49: I think everyone is coming to the foregone conculsion that the House will go democratic. The Senate looks like a 3-out-of-5 battle between MO, TN, AZ, VA, and MT.
10:10: All three IN House races that were close - districts 2, 8, and 9 - have gone D. A Connecticut seat has lost as well. However, it looks like a couple of southern seats - FL seats, GA - seems to be in the R column.
Is this is wave, or is this the Northeast/Midwest independents rebelling, but the rest of the R's staying with the party? We will see.
10:20: The northeast massacre of Republicans continue; Jay, you are happy to know that Charlie Bass- NH-2 - has lost. This race wasn't even on the map 3 months ago.
Good news - the Northern Ky Rep - Geoff Davis - has held on. Another piece of evidence that the Rep get out the vote effort works - but works regionally, and certainly not in the NE and Mid-Atlantic.
10:30: Everyone is fascinated by the Va race. Where the hell are the non-reporting precincts? 94% in, Allen by 30,000. I'm sure there will be lawsuits here, no matter what.
Haven't seen any numbers from MO or TN yet - that's just as big.
10:45: Apparently, one of the 16 precincts in Ohio with problems is in Cincinnati, so we won't have results from OH-1 (W. Cincinnati) for a while now. However, OH-2 (Jean Schmidt's and Don Hershey's district) is starting to come in, and Schmidt leads by 4% with about half of the vote reamining. If this changes, then it is free wine for everyone.
10"50: 95% in in VA; still Allen by 28,000 or so. Michael Barone says the outstadning precincts are in both urban (Norfolk) and rural/beach/suburbs. Barone said it is a mix. In the DC Metro area, ALL ARE COUNTED, according to Barone.
36 precincts from Loudon county, 33 precinct from Prince William are still out. Barone says these couties are pretty much 50/50.
Barone is saying this may be headed for a recount. 36 days, plus or minus a week. You heard it here first.
10:51: Now, more news from VA: State Law says that if the result is within 1% (which it looks like it most certainly will), the losing candidate can call for a recount - and there it goes! It's automatic. Hoo boy.
10:57: Two quick notes:
1) Steele HAS NOT conceded yet, according to instapundit and NRO's The Corner. He does not believe the Exit Polls.
2) THERE HAVE BEEN NO VOTES counted in St Louis and Kansas City yet for the MO Senate race. Is this fishy, or what?
More House races fall - Heath Shuler is coming to Washington. Good luck. He beat a R incumbent in NC.
11:10: NEWS FLASH
THE WASHINGTON POST HAS WITHDRAWN THEIR PROJECTION OF CARDIN WINNING THE MARYLAND SENATE RACE
Fox has not, yet.
11:21: Fox has declared the Democrats will take over the House - ironically, by carrying Tom Delay's seat. Welcome Nancy Pelosi, House Speaker.
Still no word on VA - now within 11,000 votes, TN (Corker (r) by 4%) or fraud-laden MO.
11:28: And now the other NH house district - NH 1 - has fallen to the democrats. This is a seat that was not on a radar screen - and is clearly a sign of the regional sweep of this election.
11:35: Barone was on talking about Maryland - and frankly, he can't understand the withdraw. Steele is running well behind Ehrlich's numbers in 02 - he talked about Calvert county (Ehrlich 63%, Steele 52% this year) and PG county. The one wildcard is the black vote - will Steele get substantially more black vote than Ehrlich? WE will see.
11:59: Wow. Brit Hume signs off with the latest VA totals -Webb is now up 2500 out of 2.4 million cast, 99% in. Recount is definite.
12:40: Corker (R) wins in TN. The inner city MO votes are now coming in for McCaskill (D) in MO; she now leads by 1100 with about 70% of the vote in. No one is sure what the hell is going on in Montana right now.
It looks like control of the Senate may - MAY - be held up in the Virginia recounts over the next few weeks.
Election Day
Well, the big day is finally here. We will try to do a live blog tonight with live commentary as things unfold.
I want to take this time to urge all of you to put no stock in exit polls. I think they were proven to be a fraud in 2004, but nonetheless, some network(s) will use data from them at 5:30 to make broad inferences about the electorate.
Here's why they are flawed, based on some real stories from 2004.
First, the idea is fine, in theory. Go to some critical polling places, set up shop, and grab every fifth voter and ask them to fill out a survey, right?
Here are the problems:
1) Most of the exit pollers were graduate students, mainly women. I'm going to generalize here , but everyone remembers when they were in college, right? If someone said you had to be at a place at 6 am, but there was no one expecting you (or watching you) at that time....
you got in around 8, right? Right. No one's looking....
So a group of voters from 6 am to 8 am were missed. And the demographic of that group who votes at that time? Mainly working men. Who lean mostly Republican. So no exit voting was done of those voters.
2) So you are supposed to pull out every fifth voter. Fine. Remember, you are 21-23 years old working in the suburbs in an area you don't know.
You count people since your last survey...1...2...3..4..and then two people exit:
- a 27 year old stay at home mom, or
- a 55 year old man who is in a suit.
What do you have the most in common with? Who would you pick to interview? In most cases documented in 04, the 27 year old mom was picked if given a choice.
Most of the interviewers were democrats, it was found, and the natural human tendecny is to seek out people that "look" to be similar to you and have comparable life experiences/age/beliefs. We can't fault the interviewer for being reluctant to interview Republicans - but it was not taken into account.
3) The early results had to be reported to the network by 4 pm. So you've interviewed from 8 -4. Who are you missing from 4 pm - on? See the answer to #1 above.
4) The exit polls were set up in the traditional swing neighborhoods - not, of course, in all precincts - and the exit pools completely missed the GOTV operation in the ex-urbs that the Republicans set up, most notably in OH, FL, and other states.
This is how the exit polls showed that:
- Kerry would win PA by TWENTY POINTS (remember that?)
- The D's would be extremely close in VA, NC (they lost both by 10+)
This affects how the networks call races... I distinctly remember the networks not calling VA or NC when they closed ( Bush won both over 10 pts, as I said) but called MI and NJ 10 minutes after the polls closed (Kerry won MI by 3, NJ by 7).
The networks aren't biased - the polling procedure was.
I don't know what fixes were put in place for this year... but keep this in mind when reading any early tea leaves today.
(unless, of course, the news is good for the Republicans...then it's 100% accurate!)
I want to take this time to urge all of you to put no stock in exit polls. I think they were proven to be a fraud in 2004, but nonetheless, some network(s) will use data from them at 5:30 to make broad inferences about the electorate.
Here's why they are flawed, based on some real stories from 2004.
First, the idea is fine, in theory. Go to some critical polling places, set up shop, and grab every fifth voter and ask them to fill out a survey, right?
Here are the problems:
1) Most of the exit pollers were graduate students, mainly women. I'm going to generalize here , but everyone remembers when they were in college, right? If someone said you had to be at a place at 6 am, but there was no one expecting you (or watching you) at that time....
you got in around 8, right? Right. No one's looking....
So a group of voters from 6 am to 8 am were missed. And the demographic of that group who votes at that time? Mainly working men. Who lean mostly Republican. So no exit voting was done of those voters.
2) So you are supposed to pull out every fifth voter. Fine. Remember, you are 21-23 years old working in the suburbs in an area you don't know.
You count people since your last survey...1...2...3..4..and then two people exit:
- a 27 year old stay at home mom, or
- a 55 year old man who is in a suit.
What do you have the most in common with? Who would you pick to interview? In most cases documented in 04, the 27 year old mom was picked if given a choice.
Most of the interviewers were democrats, it was found, and the natural human tendecny is to seek out people that "look" to be similar to you and have comparable life experiences/age/beliefs. We can't fault the interviewer for being reluctant to interview Republicans - but it was not taken into account.
3) The early results had to be reported to the network by 4 pm. So you've interviewed from 8 -4. Who are you missing from 4 pm - on? See the answer to #1 above.
4) The exit polls were set up in the traditional swing neighborhoods - not, of course, in all precincts - and the exit pools completely missed the GOTV operation in the ex-urbs that the Republicans set up, most notably in OH, FL, and other states.
This is how the exit polls showed that:
- Kerry would win PA by TWENTY POINTS (remember that?)
- The D's would be extremely close in VA, NC (they lost both by 10+)
This affects how the networks call races... I distinctly remember the networks not calling VA or NC when they closed ( Bush won both over 10 pts, as I said) but called MI and NJ 10 minutes after the polls closed (Kerry won MI by 3, NJ by 7).
The networks aren't biased - the polling procedure was.
I don't know what fixes were put in place for this year... but keep this in mind when reading any early tea leaves today.
(unless, of course, the news is good for the Republicans...then it's 100% accurate!)
Nov 4, 2006
Odds and Ends
A few random thoughts while stuck in a hotel in Scranton PA (home of The Office!).
- I have been battling a brutal head cold for the past two weeks. This has been awful. Yesterday, my cold turned into an ear infection. Seriously, when is the last time anyone on this space had an ear infection?!? I feel like I am 7 years old. Next up, Flinstone Vitamins!
- How bout them Terps beating Clemson? Pretty nice turnaround by Fridge's boys. Can you believe I still can't sell my Miami tickets at face value on stubhub. WTF??
- I am with the Sports Guy in thinking the C's will be better than people think (maybe the 7 or 8 spot in the East), but then they go out and stink the joint out in their two openers, choking away leads in both games. Yuck.
- Zahn should enjoy this... nice
- Republicans are officially grasping when they are trotting out criticism about FICTIONAL novels. Scrape, scrape, scrape... yup I think we are at the bottom of the barrel.
- Pats 24 Cols 18. Manning will get 260+ yards passing, but will be settling for FGs instead of TDs. If the Pats could shut down the 49TD, 4500+ yard record setting Colts offense a few years ago with the 5th string DBs, then they can slow down the current Offense with a D that is playing much better. The D is back to doing Belicheckian things like stuffing the run, being very stingy in the red zone, and creating TOs. Meanwhile the Pats O is starting to get in gear, and the Colts and the 29th rank run D comes to Foxboro with them. We'll see a lot of 2 TE and a lot of Dillon and Maroney. This is like the Cinci matchup earlier, a hyped offensive team with a fatal flaw of soft run D. The Pats manhandled them by running right up the gut. Can't wait for tomorrow nights game.
That is all for now.
- I have been battling a brutal head cold for the past two weeks. This has been awful. Yesterday, my cold turned into an ear infection. Seriously, when is the last time anyone on this space had an ear infection?!? I feel like I am 7 years old. Next up, Flinstone Vitamins!
- How bout them Terps beating Clemson? Pretty nice turnaround by Fridge's boys. Can you believe I still can't sell my Miami tickets at face value on stubhub. WTF??
- I am with the Sports Guy in thinking the C's will be better than people think (maybe the 7 or 8 spot in the East), but then they go out and stink the joint out in their two openers, choking away leads in both games. Yuck.
- Zahn should enjoy this... nice
- Republicans are officially grasping when they are trotting out criticism about FICTIONAL novels. Scrape, scrape, scrape... yup I think we are at the bottom of the barrel.
- Pats 24 Cols 18. Manning will get 260+ yards passing, but will be settling for FGs instead of TDs. If the Pats could shut down the 49TD, 4500+ yard record setting Colts offense a few years ago with the 5th string DBs, then they can slow down the current Offense with a D that is playing much better. The D is back to doing Belicheckian things like stuffing the run, being very stingy in the red zone, and creating TOs. Meanwhile the Pats O is starting to get in gear, and the Colts and the 29th rank run D comes to Foxboro with them. We'll see a lot of 2 TE and a lot of Dillon and Maroney. This is like the Cinci matchup earlier, a hyped offensive team with a fatal flaw of soft run D. The Pats manhandled them by running right up the gut. Can't wait for tomorrow nights game.
That is all for now.
Nov 2, 2006
Week 9 NFL Picks - "The Clock Game"
We're coming live tonight from gate F7 in the always-efficient Chicago OHare airport. The weather is fine, but the f&&#^$#n FAA put a "hold" on flights for whatever reason. I now expect to land in Cincinnati at 1:25 am and will get to bed just after 2. Nice.Anyway, I feel like these picks are my version of the clock game. I have about 10-15 minutes to post these picks.... so, first, with the game itself -
Who doesn't love this game?
The clock will start with your first bid...
$400? "Lower"
$300? "Lower"
$200? "Higher"
$250? "Higher"
$225? "HIGHER", says Bob, while muttering "dumbass" under his breath.
Ah yes. Not saying that this particular contestant did that - I have no idea. But you have to love this guy's smile and hair.
Anyway, the picks for week 9:
St Louis 27, KC 10. St Louis will crush them. San Diego is that good (referring tothe Rams loss last week).
Bal 24, Cinci 13. If Palmer is under a rush, that's big problems for him.
NYG 23, Hou 14. Houston can move the ball - they just have to avoid the turnover.
Jax 20, Ten 10. Just enough defense for the Jags.
Was 23, Dal 13. I think this is Derek's rule of NFL betting - Dal and Washington ALWAYS split.
Buf 27, GB 20. I had to drop Lee Evans this week to make room for a trade - I have a feeling this will be his breakout week.
TB 20, NO 17. Is this the end for the Saints?
Atl 31, Det 28. I started Kitna over Eli in one of my leagues this week. Indoors? Should be a track meet.
Chi 30, Mia 14. Does Joey Harrington = Alex Smith? >? Min 24, SF 23. The Vikes can't look this bad two weeks in a row, right?
Cle 20, SD 19. YEAH BABY! THE UPSET! (ok, maybe that is the caffeine talking)
Pit 20, Den 13. Pit isbacked into a corner, and Denver is overrated.
NE 28, Ind 27. How can you NOT take Belichick in this one?
Sea 23, Oak 12. Lost in the game last week was that Oak had <100 yards of offense. How will they score if not for turnovers?
No time for the recap of the records. Derek, can you do this?
Best bets:
StL -3
Stl/KC Under 46
Bal +3.5
Hou +14
Jax/Ten under 37
Was +3
Dal/Was Under 42
Buf/GB Over 40
TB +1.5
Atl/Det over 43
Chi -14
Chi/Mia Over 37 1/2
SF +5
Pit -3
NE/Ind Over 48
Sea -8
Nov 1, 2006
A couple of belated items.
Been so busy I forgot some things:1. Happy belated B-Day to Jay and his son Luke. My mom still has Luke's present at the house and is hounding me on when I'm going to get it out of there. By the time I eventually get it to Luke, he will be old enough to use the poker chips I got him.
2. How did we all let this slip through? I'm ashamed. With Eric, Lee, Jay, Jon, and I, none of us mentioned that Bob Barker is retiring? Shame on all of us.
3. Had a request to route some traffic over to our old blog site by Jorge Blogsada:
Hey, can i get some credit for posting on everyone's 2nd favorite blog? There's a little surprise waiting for everyone brave enough to travel down the internet's darkest alley.
I can't wait to start blogging over there when I have to complain about my soon to be wife. Only me, Ben, and Jorge will read it.
Good Day
Let's lighten the mood up...
Random thoughts about non-serious topics:
1) Lot of news about ESPN: first, Harold Reynolds is now suing ESPN for his firing (details at Smoking Gun). Also, on ESPNU during the N Ill - Iowa game, Brian Kinchen (the color guy) talked about how:
"the quarterback needs to caress the ball - cradle it...... I guess that sounds kind of gay".
Needless to say, he is now on double secret probation.
2) Has anyone seen the new Citicards commercials? The ones with the Russian old guy amassing points? I think he says it is very "rewarding", but it comes out "bevording". I find them amazingly compelling. I think I may be the only one who enjoys these.
Is that Judd Hirsch doing the ad?
3) At the end of the Steelers-Raiders game, they showed a picture of Al Davis. Janice almost threw up her dinner. "Who IS that?" she asked. It's the owner. "Wow - he looks dead". That may be a compliment.
4) Is there any doubt that if it was a Browns player making that non-catch in the end zone at the end of the Browns-Jets game , there would be ZERO national outrage about the push-out rule? And people wonder why there is such hatred toward east-coast teams...
5) More bathroom blogging: Look, if you are in a stall, especially the first stall that is adjacent to the urinals and the rest of the bathroom, do NOT drop your pants so much that you expose skin to the rest of the people underneath the stall wall. Why do you feel the need to throw your pants and underwear on the floor (with your two legs still loosely inside them) so that we can see:
- what socks you are wearing
- what kind of underwear you are wearing
- your badge lying on the floor
Ugh! When taking a crap, the pants don't go lower than your kneecap. Man Law?
6) Derek and I had a vocal argument about College Football vs College Basketball - which sport most embodies American Ideals?
And Derek - what about Rutgers? If they are the only undefeated team left besides Ohio St, do they play in the Fiesta Bowl against the Buckeyes?
1) Lot of news about ESPN: first, Harold Reynolds is now suing ESPN for his firing (details at Smoking Gun). Also, on ESPNU during the N Ill - Iowa game, Brian Kinchen (the color guy) talked about how:
"the quarterback needs to caress the ball - cradle it...... I guess that sounds kind of gay".
Needless to say, he is now on double secret probation.
2) Has anyone seen the new Citicards commercials? The ones with the Russian old guy amassing points? I think he says it is very "rewarding", but it comes out "bevording". I find them amazingly compelling. I think I may be the only one who enjoys these.
Is that Judd Hirsch doing the ad?
3) At the end of the Steelers-Raiders game, they showed a picture of Al Davis. Janice almost threw up her dinner. "Who IS that?" she asked. It's the owner. "Wow - he looks dead". That may be a compliment.
4) Is there any doubt that if it was a Browns player making that non-catch in the end zone at the end of the Browns-Jets game , there would be ZERO national outrage about the push-out rule? And people wonder why there is such hatred toward east-coast teams...
5) More bathroom blogging: Look, if you are in a stall, especially the first stall that is adjacent to the urinals and the rest of the bathroom, do NOT drop your pants so much that you expose skin to the rest of the people underneath the stall wall. Why do you feel the need to throw your pants and underwear on the floor (with your two legs still loosely inside them) so that we can see:
- what socks you are wearing
- what kind of underwear you are wearing
- your badge lying on the floor
Ugh! When taking a crap, the pants don't go lower than your kneecap. Man Law?
6) Derek and I had a vocal argument about College Football vs College Basketball - which sport most embodies American Ideals?
And Derek - what about Rutgers? If they are the only undefeated team left besides Ohio St, do they play in the Fiesta Bowl against the Buckeyes?
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