Election Day Preview

So many things going on right now - for example: George Kokinis, the GM of the Browns, being escorted out of the building.....

.....but it's time for a quick Election day 2009 Preview! Some very interesting races to watch tomorrow:

1. Virginia Governor: Obama won this state and officially made it "purple"; it may have even been purple when Jim Webb defeated George Allen in 2006 (with the help of the Macaca comment and the Washington Post).

However, the Republican (McDonnell) is solidly ahead of the Democrat (Deeds). Off-the-record reporting has the White House already complaining about the campaigning style of Deeds.

This race was close for a while - but now it seems that the Republican is pulling ahead. If the margin is 12-15%, this should send shivers down the spines of many Democrtic senators and reps that were elected from purple states like Virginia.

A McDonnell win of 14% or more signifies a massive vote against Obama in VA; a win of 6-7% or less can be spun favorably for the White House.

EZ line: McDonnell -10.3%

2. New Jersey Governor: Jon Corzine (D) is one of the most unpopular governors in the country - and still may win tomorrow. His ceiling for hte vote is about 43-45%; the race is complicated, as a moderate, heavy-set Republican (Chris Christie) is running as well as a rich Independent. The Indepedent is consisntely polling over 10%.

( I call out Christie's weight because - well, he has done so himself. He has challneged Corzine to stop with the snide comments on his weight and said "Man Up, Governor - Call me Fat!")

The polls are all right around 44-44-12; this is a classic race where the independent voters will decide it and figure out who to vote for - and whether they feel like making a statement by voting for the independent. If the independent gets over 15%, Corzine wins; if he gets less than 10%, Christie wins. It will be fascinating to see how many people say "to hell with both parties" and vote for the Independent.

EZ Line: Corzine -1.0%

3. New York 23rd Congressional: Wow. Where do I start here? This is a special election for a representative in Congress in a traditional Republican district. The parties' nominees were determined by the parties, not by a primary - and the Republicans nomintes a moderate- to - liberal woman, Dede Scozzafava.

Well, the Conservative Party in New York - who usually also nominates the person nominated by the R's - decided not to back Dede, but a conservative, Doug Hoffman. (Just don't ask about New York's wild election rules/parties).

The Conservative party is dominated by the "Tea Party" activists - those for less spending, less taxes, and less government intervention.

Most of the R leadership - but not all - supported Dede to begin with, but some signifncant others, like Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin, supported Hoffman.

As of last week, this was a very tight 3-way race, with Hoffman gaining momentum.

Then on Saturday, Dede dropped out - and today, she threw her support to.....the Democrat, Bill Owens!

There really isn't a precedent for a race like this in American politics, so it's impossible to figure out what is really going on or predict what will happen. Nonetheless, this is a fight for the Republican party and its principles - and how powerful the Tea Party movement really is.

This race can give many clues for 2010 and beyond. How poluar is the Tea Party? Should the Republicans really stand for something distinct from the last 6-8 years? Do voters really see much of a difference between the two parties - and are they comfortable going otuside the box?

EZ Line: Hoffman -1.5%.

4. Ohio Issue 3. This is like the Cleveland Browns of the 1980s- 3 times the Browns were within one step of the Super Bowl - and 3 times they were turned away.

This is the third attempt to pass legalize Casino gaming on Ohio in the past 4 years. Is this the year? Polls say it will pass....but we have heard this before. I will not get my hopes up.

EZ Line: No, -3.3%

5. Ohio Issue 2. Frankly, I don't care about this - but I did a little vote trading with my mother-in-law. She is a big Issue 2 supporter; I said I would support it if she voted yes on Issue 3. We have a deal!

EZ Line: Yes, -5.6%