Vegas Thanksgiving

Nothing says Thanksgiving more than dice, ultimate texas holdem, and a nice buffet. So Carol wanted to get out of town for Thanksgiving since our friends were gone for the weekend,we didn't really want to cook, and we couldn't fly. Below are some of the highlights and lowlights:



1. Ahhh the looks from people. Priceless. Totally worth it. The dealers were awesome about it. Actually met a couple of great people this trip. Had a great session at blackjack with another couple and an outstanding dealer.


1a. Ultimate Texas Holdem- God I love this game. Played it day and night. But man the swings are so intense. Especially since I'm supporting two people. Jay and Laura, I don't know how you guys do it.


2. Is there something during the interview to be an UTH dealer that finds out if you are capable of holding a conversation and dealing cards? I don't think they do since everytime I play it is a struggle for some of the dealers to actually deal cards. Ugh. I had a 10 minute conversation with one of the dealers about middle names for my kid. It took everything in my body not to light my cigar and put it out on her forehead.


3. Friday night it was busy and Carol and I were playing at the UTH table by Revolutions. An older man sat in seat one that had a direct view of the dancers at Revolutions. He nearly had a heart attack. He kept on looking at the girls, then looking at his cards, then looking at the girls and then looking at the dealer with a stare of "Is this real? Are there really girls dancing 20 feet away in barely nothing while I'm playing cards?"


4. Despite it being busy on Friday, on Thanksgiving morning at 8:00am I walked around the Mirage and there was a total of 5 people playing table games in the entire casino.


5. Overheard a conversation between a couple in their early 20s from the South over at the Venetian.


Girl: "Guess what I found? A row of restaurants sponsored by the Food Network."


Boy: "Is there one with that Bam guy?"


Girl: "I didn't see one."


For those of you that don't know, Emril does have a restaurant and there is no Food Network row. Just a bunch of really good restaurants. What was the first thing I thought of when I heard this? Don and what his reaction would of been to hearing this. Disgust? Laughter? A public thrashing?


6. Speaking of Emril, he took over the Palazzo's sportsbook. Made some changes, like putting a BJ, Pai Gow, and Craps table in the sportsbook, new colors, and a bunch of regular tables.


7. Emril's sportsbook now offers in game gambling. Very nice now that we don't have to travel 30 minutes outside of Vegas to try this out.


7. The Pai Gow pit is now gone at the Mirage.

8. I heart massages. Just a great break from gambling all day long.

9. Craps- Could not get hot. Wide open tables to be had and I got gun shy after my first run at an open table. Played only 3 sessions and took a beating.


10. Now onto the big story. The Mirage put in a BB King's blues bar and restaurant that replaced their old cafe. Pretty nice and lively. Carol and I ate there for dinner on Friday night to get a break from the UTH table. Food was OK. About 4 hours later my stomach started to hurt. Went to the bathroom and thought nothing of it. Carol and I stopped gambling around midnight and went up to bed. At 4:00am on Saturday morning Carol started to throw up every 15 minutes for about 2 hours. I started to get a little worried and decided to leave to get closer to home. I really didn't want to have to go to the local hospital there to get Carol treated so we left around 8 and I drove around 90-100 mph the entire way home with Carol just spewing in the passenger seat the entire way. I couldn't drive fast enough. I was guessing that if I got pulled over I had my pregnant wife with her trashbags full of vomit in the passenger seat would get me a free ride.





Got home and then Carol got worse. Ended up taking her to the hospital and a whole lot of shit happened that I won't get into, but in the end she had food poisoning and severe dehydration. After 11 hours we checked out and went home. Baby is healthy and doing just fine, but man what a scare. Not a good ending to a wonderful trip.

NFL Week 12(b): Azalea

When you see this picture, you know this is where the fun begins. The 13th. Challengers that are 4-5 back can make a big stride with an eagle. People in the 2nd, 3rd, or 4th to last grops must make birdie to stay in the hunt. he leaders have to make sure they don't trip up here.

So many good memories. Seve's apprarent locking up of the tournament in 86. The Norman/Olazabal winks in 98. Zack's excellent execution of this hole in 07. Tiger's putt into the water 2 (?) years ago. (Why isn't that shown more as a highlight??)

This is where the fun really begins. This is Augusta. The 13th.

And really, we have a good setup today - just like a Saturday or Sunday of a major. The early games involves some contenders that need to keep going and maybe get a big win - like an eagle. The Panthers. The Texans. The Dolphins. Atlanta. The 4:00 games are better, with more contenders playing. Jax-SF. Arizona-Tennessee. Chicago-Minnesota. The 2nd to last game is a good one - I don't care that Big Ben isn't playing. And then, of course, it's the Tiger-Phil matchup for the last game of the week, Patriots-Saints.

It's all fun from here for the next 3-4 weeks or so.

My personal 13th hole - a par 5 that is reachable with water in play - has to be one where I played in the 1st round of the 2001 US Amatuer Qualifier up in Cleveland. This was my first experience to the "new" golf - to the young bombers that would really change the game this decade.

The 13th hole at Hawk's Nest in Creston is a 530 yard par 5, off an elevated tee, with water down the right side and also water crossing in front of the green. I was playing very well - even through 11 in the qualifier - so I played conservatively - 3 wood, 5 iron, wedge, 2 putts, par - and off I go.

My playing partner was a 17 year old from California. He took out the driver and hit it 300, a beautiful draw that landed on the left side of the fairway. But - I thought to myself (and to Steve as well) - he's still got 220 over water - he can't possibly....

Oh yes- he pulled out a 2 iron, hit the highest 2 iron I have ever seen that fluttered down within 15 feet. He didn't make the egle, but it was a great birdie - and then I knew that golf in the 2000's would be different.

(This hole also is a favorite of Steve and I - we were playing a practice round here, and Steve was driving. I got a snack at the turn and was trying to eat my bag of Munchos that came with my sandwich, as Steve gunned it down the hill. My Munchos went flying out of the cart.

I immediately screamed, like a 7 year old boy * - "My Munchos!". They were lost forever in the creek. )

On the games:

Stl 20, Sea 17. I'm starting to like the fact that the Rams have not given up on the season or their coach yet.

Phi 27, Was 13. "Philadephia is angry, my friends....like an old man trying to return soup at a Deli".

Car 23, NYJ 20. Have to go against the Jets until they prove otherwise.

Ind 24, Hou 20. I can't pick the Colts-Texans games.

Cin 27, Cle 20. We will keep it close - certainly under the 13 point number.

Mia 24, Buf 17. Miami is ready to make their playoff push.

Atl 24, TB 20. Atlanta is severly overrated, and Tampa is "frisky". This will be close.

SF 16, Jax 13. The 49ers of 2 weeks ago return in a game that will be described as a "throwback" game.

SD 31, KC 20. I like the fact this could be a shootout.

Ten 27, Az 17. Do I thin the Titans can run the table and go 10-6? Maybe, just maybe.

Min 27, Chi 20. I just think that the Bears can hang for a while here.

Bal 23, Pit 10.No line on this game yet - so I will make the Ravens a best bet if the line is under 10.

NO 31, NE 24. I think people are overvaluing the Patroits.

Best bets: Last week: 7-5; Thanksgiving: 3-0. Overall: 69-75-2. 10 more here:

StL +4

Phi -9.5

Car +3.5

Mia -3.5

TB +12

Jax/SF under 41.5

KC/SD over 45

Ten -2

Chi +11

NO -1.5

* - Many of you must be saying to yourself: "You mean you whined like normal, like a 7 year old boy". Yes, that is correct.

NFL Week 12(a): Golden Bell

Going to squeeze in two holes at Augusta this week so that the math evens out and we end on the 18th hole for Week 17.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! And Thanksgiving means - NFL Football! Everyone makes a big deal about NFL Football on Thanksgiving, but usually that means the Lions lose early and the Cowboys win late. When is the last time we had some good, suspenseful Thanksgiving day games? The only one that comes to mind is the Leon Lett game - Dallas Miami, back in 1993. NFL Thanksgiving day games are tradition - but it's not like there are any recent memories from the games itself.

Well, I'll say it. Thanksgiving day NFL football is like the 12th hole at Augusta. It's a great hole - don't get me wrong - but it's resting on its reputation and we revere it because of "tradition". What tournament memories do we have from that hole? We have Couples' miraculous escape in 92. That's about it.

"Oh, but people hit it in the water and lose!!!" That's BS. Phil was not going to win the Masters last year. He's Phil. He's done. Rocco wasn't going to win in 3-4 years ago when he made a 10. And Norman, in 96, was 2 down when he dunked it in the water agaisnt Faldo.

There are no charges that start on the 12th. It's not really a birdie hole. It's a formal tradition - you aim for the fat part of the green, make par or bogey, and move on. If you are dumb enough to go for the flag, you are dumb and don't deserve to win.

Would I like to play it? Hell yes. But you never - never - see any highlights for the 12th hole on any CBS promos for the Masters (save for Couples' miracle). One highlight in 20-30 years.

(The 12th at Elks Run is the closest hole to Augusta - it's a 150 yard par 3, downhill, with water short and to the right. The green is large, however - and par is a good score. I hit my 8-9 iron, take 2 putts and leave, knowing that the meat of the course is ahead. Very much like Augusta).

The games tomorrow:

GB 27, Det 13. I'm not sure how Detroit will score with Culpepper.

Dal 31, Oak 10. God, the Raiders are bad. The Benglas gave them the game last week - and I was dancing for joy just watching that.

Den 24, NYG 23. I'm surprised at how consistently bad the Giants' D has been this year. This is a perfect time for the Broncos to snap out of their funk.

Best bets: (3 tomorrow: Last week: 7-5. Overall: 66-75-2).

GB/Det under 47

Dal -13.5

Den +6

What's the obsession?

Quick question:

Why does everyone highlight that their food has "applewood smoked" bacon? What is so special about Applewood bacon? Can't I just have regualr bacon? Who was part of this focus group? Should I make up a name....like "Peargrass Bacon" and sell it to Burger King for marketing purposes?

iOdds

Those with an iPhone have to download the iOdds application. It is a free app that shows current the spreads on all sports. It also shows halftime lines, moneyline odds and gives you in game scoring as well. But perhaps the best part of the app, is it shows the team "rotation #" which is the number you need to tell the book when wagering. Since this is the same at each casino, you can have your betting sheets all generated before you actually go to the window. This will be handy come march.

Open up App Store -> Search for "iOdds" -> install -> awesomeness ensues.

NFL Week 11: White Dogwood

The 11th hole. This is where Augusta starts to turn and be a little nasty. A stern test awaits here on this hole - now a monstrous 505 yard par 4.

Has anyone ever seen the tee box? I think the closest the gallery can get to the 11th tee is now 100 yards away - at least. The tee shot is a blind, narrow one - and a wayward drive has sanred many a recent contender. Remember Phil's foray into the woods a few years ago? The one where he tried to claim that some dumnped grass clippings in teh woods was ground under repair? He was so deep in the woods that he was an extra in a Blair Witch sequel! (bah da bum).

The approach, however, is disappointing. This view is about what you see. Most players (except if your name is K.J. Choi) have no choice but to bail right - and from there it's a 50/50 shot at a par.

This is a tough hole - where par is a great score and most golfers are looking to survive. Like teams this week - looking to somehow surivie a tough game. Teams like Atlanta, SF, Chi and Philly, Houston, the Jets, and Baltimore - all can't afford a Phil-like drive and drop a shot here. This Sunday night game will be fascinating - as it is an effective elimination game for two disappointing teams.

I had a hard time coming up with an 11th hole from my golfing history - I have most of the back nine set so far - but the best I could do is the 11th at Walden Ponds. A par 4 of 400 yards, I somehow always have trouble on the drive. The drive does not set up well for me at all. The apporach is very similar to Augusta, with a lake of the right instead of the left. All of us usually bail left. The one saving grace for me is that for some unknown reason, I always make putts on this hole. I have made countless par puttts of 12 feet on this green. I don't know what it is.

Here we go, starting with the game of the week:

Det 20, Cle 10. Yes - you guessed it! Don Criqui is confirmed to be the announcer this week for this game! This means he has done the Browns/Bills classic 5 weeks ago, this game - and I will wager that he wil lbe on duty to do the Browns/Raiders game on Dec 27.

Dal 31, Was 13. I've gone back and forth on this one. I think good Dallas will prevail here.

GB 23, SF 20, OT. The inconsistent Packers come out again.

Pit 29, KC 17. The Steelers will get a big win here.

Min 24, Sea 13. Not much to say here - an easy win for the Vikes.

NYG 27, Atl 17. A must win for the Giants, and I will go with the desperate team. I think the Falcons' season is over.

NO 30, TB 20. I refuse to pick any more Bucs' games.

Jax 20, Buf 19. No reason - new coach in Buffalo, plus a letdown of sorts for the Jags.

Ind 27, Bal 20. I still don't believe the Ravens are that good. Hwoever, I'm scared of a letdown from the Colts.

Az 31, StL 17. How many weeks in a row now are the Rams a home underdog?

SD 23, Den 13. No word yet on who the Denver QB will be.

Cin 20, Oak 14. Here's the letdown of the week. Cincy will score a late touchdown to win.

NE 30, NYJ 13. The Pats have to fired up for this one, right?

Chi 23, Phi 17. The Eagles have no running game - and a good defense wil be abale to cpaitalize on that.

Hou 30, Ten 24, OT. A barn burner on Monday night- to make up for last week's debacle. Sorry about that, folks!

Best bets: Do I have to? 12 this week. Last week: 4-9; overall: 59-70-2.

Dal -11

SF +6.5

Pit/KC over 40

Sea/Min under 46.5

NYG -7

Buf +8.5

Ind -1.5

Az -9

Oak +9.5

NE -10.5

Chi +3

Ten/Hou over 48

Vegas Caddies

I'd like to see Eric putt in Vegas with one of these caddies:

ParMates

And yes, that's Royal Links in the background.

Quick note

As we prepare to shock the world tonight*, I musy say publicly that I applaud Belichick and feel he made a good decision.

For thsoe in stats:

P (converting on a 4th and 2) > 0.5 > P(stopping Manning on an 80 yard drive with 2:00 left)

In other words:
- it's better than 50/50 that if you punt, you lose
- You have a better chance to make the 4th and 2 than you do to stop the Colts

So -why not play the statistics and go for it? It's a smart move. It didn't work out.

* - by "shock the world", I mean either:
a. having a coach fired during the 3rd quarter of the game
b. Using 4 quarterbacks in a half
c. By having less than 5 turnovers

Vegas Countdown

Roughly 8 pay periods left until Vegas!

Layup and I were discussing craps strategy and I am hoping to get in one last practice run prior to Vegas. I feel like I need a little more time at the range before we tee off for real, but I'm not sure that I'm going to get up to Foxwoods prior to the trip. If I can't get out prior to the trip, I might sneak away on Wednesday night for a quick $5 craps session at the Monte if anyone's interested.

Why the Monte? Well, besides being able to work on my tan while indoors, I'll get the MGM Mirage comp points and I'm hoping that the Monte will have $5 tables on Wednesday night.

Are you a nerd?

So Layup texted me on Monday. His text was:

"TASC made the front page of the journal".

(TASC was the first company I worked for, and it has been bought out twice. )

Now, if your first thought after reading that text is:

"Hmmm...I wonder what scientific journal Layup is reading? "

then you are a nerd. I would wager that Laura and probably Kermit had the same thought as I.

The rest of you obviously saw "journal" and associated it with the Wall Street Journal. You are normal, well-adjusted business people. Not I.

NFL Week 10: Camelia

Well, this picture just warms the heart, doesn't it? This is where the course becomes familiar to many of us. From here on out, we know the holes, the history, the tradition behind the back 9 of the Masters.

At this point, the field of golfers where the winner will come from starts to get winnowed down. I still don't believe that "the tournament begins" here, but it does start to get defined.

No one remembers shots in the final round of the Masters from the front 9 - but the shots on the back 9 will live in infamy. There are plenty of good and bad memories of this hole:

- Crenshaw's putt in 1984
- Nicklaus's birdie to keep it going in 86

- Plenty of errant shots to the left - Norman always seems to spring to mind - that results in a bogey, at best

(and - by the way - Masters playoffs should always start on 10. None of this "go back to 18" crap. When you think playoff at Augusta, you always think #10. I wish they would go back to this....)

Likewise, the NFL season start to define itself and winnow down its opponents at this time. We've already found out that the Bears are not going to represent the NFC. The loser of the Jets/Jags game is probably out of the playoffs. Another Atlanta loss cripples their hopes. The loser of the Eagles/chargers game is in real trouble. Green Bay needs win, or else. So does Seattle. And - if the Bengals win this week, it's a franchise defining moment - like Crenshaw's putt in 84.

In many ways, the 10th hole defines the round for any golfer. I remember the 1986 State Qualifier, played at Rocky Point. Back then, I hit a 210 yards banana slice off the tee. I somehow birdied 6 and 7 to get to 2 under - 2 under!!!!! - in the state qualifier. A routine bogey on 8 and a par on 9 sent me to the 10th hole at 1 under.

My only thought on the entie walk from the 9th green to the 10th tee was: "Don't hit it in the bay. Don't hit it in the bay". The 10th hole was a longish par 4 that hugged the Chesapeake Bay, with the Bay all down the right side.

With my pulse racing, I teed off --- the ball started down the right hand side of the fairway....and kept going right. I think I made 7.

(However, I did eventually qualify for the State with a smooth 89.......which then led me to be escorted to the State Championship in a police car with 5 Dulaney assholes. But that's another story for another time.)

On to the picks:

Den 23, Was 16. I think the Skins are a cure for what ails any team in the NFC (The Browns are the elixir for AFC teams).

Ten 27, Buf 20. I think this will be a surprisingly entertaining game.

NO 34, StL 16. The Saints will want to have an easy game for once - get on top and stay ahead for a while. None of this comeback stuff this week.

Pit 27, Cin 17. I am already hearing Steelers' fans excuses for this game. "It's not fair we have to play them on a short week! Boo hoo!"

NYJ 24, Jax 13. I refuse to believe that the Jaguars are good enough to win this game.

Min 30, Det 17. The late pick-6 against Detroit killed me last week. This is the classic back door cover - Minnesota will be up 23-0 at half; Tavaris Jackson will come in, and the Lions will score lots of garbage points.

Mia 27, TB 13. Do you realize how many points the Packers GAVE the Bucs last week? The Bucs are no good. No good at all.

Car 27, Atl 20. I think the real 2009 Falcons have shown themselves over the last 2 games.

KC 20, Oak 17. May rival the Browns-Bills classic as "worst game of the year". However, we still have Browns-Raiders week 16 and Browns-Chiefs Week 15, so stay tuned! This award is not over yet!

Phi 24, SD 23. I give up on both these teams.

Dal 29, GB 17. The Packers are overrated.

Az 24, Sea 20. There's some desperation here for the Seahawks.

Ind 31, NE 24. Something just isn't right for the Patrioits this year. They are good, but not dominant. I think the Colts win by 7.

Bal 27, Cle 13. The nation will be subjected to wathcing the dreck I have to watch every week. I predict record high ratings for Leno on Modnay night.

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 4-12 (ugh). Overall: 55-61-2.

Den -3.5

Buf/Ten over 41

NO -13.5

Pit -7

NYJ -6.5

Det +16.5

Mia -10

Car +1.5

KC +2

Dal -3

Sea +8.5

Ind -2.5

NE/Ind over 48.5

7 favorites and only 4 dogs. I don't like that.

College Basketball Picks....

....to make fun of!

I will try to follow the Ohio Valley conference all year. We'll see how long this lasts.

Picks for 11/13 - and feel free to make fun of them:

Morehead +26 vs Kentucky
Austin Peay +23 vs Tennessee
Minnesota -19 vs Tenn Tech
Siena -10.5 at Tenn St

Bonus:
Youngstown St +20 vs Xavier

NFL Week 9: Carolina Cherry

The 9th hole is where things start to get serious at the Masters. You start to settle in for the long haul - you get your bowl of radishes and the beer nearby - and when the leaders approach the 9th, that's the start of 3 hours where you don't move from the couch. It's the start of the stretch where you know the lay of the land for each hole - and where not to hit it.

For instance, who will leave it short on 9 and have it spin back off the false front? Who will be abvoe the hole and have a 60 foot putt where you aim 90 degrees away from the hole?

It's where the tournament starts to take shape. This is where Norman spun the ball off the green and made double to lose his lead in the 1996 Masters. It's where Nicklaus started his birdie barrage of 3 in a row in 86.

And - look at the games this week - this week is where the NFL season will start to really shape itself. Look at all the key games! Many games feature two contenders going head to head that will start to decide things. Mia-NE. Hou-Ind. Bal-Cin. SD-NYG. Dal-Phi. Pit-Den. We're starting to play important games here that will form the concrete memories of the 2009 season.

Talking about memories, one of the greatest golf lines ever was spoken on the 9th hole. Back in the late 90s, Steve, Kermit and I would meet in Columbus 5-6 times every spring and summer to meet up and play a round. One April day - it was cold and windy - we met at Bent Tree, just north of Columbus.

Steve and I were teammates - and we were playing Kermit and Ken ( I think). The weather being 45 degrees, Kermit was in hs customary T-shirt and shorts attire.

Anyway, we were playing our normal game - $2, 2-down auto presses - and a new bet started on the 9th hole. We get to the 9th, and I think Steve and I were both in with bogies.

Kermit had about a 9 footer left for par to win the hole and (at that time) a lot of money.

Steve and I tried to psych him out - "look out for that break! Mine broke left but Eric's broke right". Kermit would have none of it.

He rose from his crouch after reading the putt and said, loudly and clearly:

"This putt is as straight as my long, hard, erect dick".

There was no doubt in my mind that we lost at that moment. I think Kermit even putted it in left handed just for emphasis.

With that visual, the games for week 9:

GB 27, TB 10. I don't have a lot of faith in the Packers - with the young offensive line - but geesh, Tampa is horrid.

NE 31, Mia 16. I think this is a let down game for the Dolphins - and Belichick won't let the Pats forget last year.

Jax 20, KC 13. Yikes. How many people will show up for this one in Jacksonville?

Ind 34, Hou 17. It's time to go against the Texans again. And I think this is a statement game for the Colts - to make sure everyone know who's still boss in the AFC South.

Cin 27, Bal 24. I still have a lot of questions about Baltimore's pass defense. Palmer will be able to move the ball against them.

Az 23, Chi 16. Boy, for winning 30-6, the Bears were thoroughly unimpressive against us last week. And I have benched Forte for good.

Atl 24, Was 13. I keep being disappointed in the Falcons. Something tells me they should be better than they are.....but they aren't.

Sea 23, Det 20, OT. Just a wild hunch.

NO 27, Car 20. I think this is the real Carolina - they are not a bad team if Delhomme doesn't shoot them in the foot.

SF 27, Ten 13. Nope - not buying Vince against a decent 49ers team.

NYG 31, SD 20. I just can't see Norv coming to NY and beating a Tom Coughlin-coaached team that is angry and has lost 3 in a row.

Phi 26, Dal 17. I give up with the Cowboys. Going with my heart and sayign the Eagles' pressure will force too many mistakes by Romo.

Den 27, Pit 20. A high scoring game here, especially with Pittsburgh's offense. I think McDaniel will have them ready at home on Monday night. Just like next week, right? The home team will be ready to go next Monday night? Right? Right? Hello? Is this thing on?

Best bets: 16 of them this week. 7-5 last week; 51-49-2 overall.

GB -9.5

GB/TB under 43.5

NE -10.5

KC/Jax under 41.5

Ind -8.5

Cin +2.5

Bal/Cin over 44.5

Az +2.5

Det +10

Car +13

SF -4

NYG -4.5

Phi -2.5

Dal/Phi under 50

Den +2.5

Pit/Den over 40

Monopoly

Lee and I were chatting last night about what is something new that we can do out in Vegas for our March trip and while we already decided on Monopoly tourney, Lee added a wonderful component that could take it to the next level. Instead of using play money, we use real money instead. We are still working out the details and how much money will need to be put up to support the bank (maybe we can contact the Feds who can help out) but holy crap this would be exciting.

We got Eric on the horn to help us out with details and all we heard from him was "you guys are idiots." No solutions.

So we need some assistance on how we can keep the entry fee within reason but still play with real money.

Election Day Preview

So many things going on right now - for example: George Kokinis, the GM of the Browns, being escorted out of the building.....

.....but it's time for a quick Election day 2009 Preview! Some very interesting races to watch tomorrow:

1. Virginia Governor: Obama won this state and officially made it "purple"; it may have even been purple when Jim Webb defeated George Allen in 2006 (with the help of the Macaca comment and the Washington Post).

However, the Republican (McDonnell) is solidly ahead of the Democrat (Deeds). Off-the-record reporting has the White House already complaining about the campaigning style of Deeds.

This race was close for a while - but now it seems that the Republican is pulling ahead. If the margin is 12-15%, this should send shivers down the spines of many Democrtic senators and reps that were elected from purple states like Virginia.

A McDonnell win of 14% or more signifies a massive vote against Obama in VA; a win of 6-7% or less can be spun favorably for the White House.

EZ line: McDonnell -10.3%

2. New Jersey Governor: Jon Corzine (D) is one of the most unpopular governors in the country - and still may win tomorrow. His ceiling for hte vote is about 43-45%; the race is complicated, as a moderate, heavy-set Republican (Chris Christie) is running as well as a rich Independent. The Indepedent is consisntely polling over 10%.

( I call out Christie's weight because - well, he has done so himself. He has challneged Corzine to stop with the snide comments on his weight and said "Man Up, Governor - Call me Fat!")

The polls are all right around 44-44-12; this is a classic race where the independent voters will decide it and figure out who to vote for - and whether they feel like making a statement by voting for the independent. If the independent gets over 15%, Corzine wins; if he gets less than 10%, Christie wins. It will be fascinating to see how many people say "to hell with both parties" and vote for the Independent.

EZ Line: Corzine -1.0%

3. New York 23rd Congressional: Wow. Where do I start here? This is a special election for a representative in Congress in a traditional Republican district. The parties' nominees were determined by the parties, not by a primary - and the Republicans nomintes a moderate- to - liberal woman, Dede Scozzafava.

Well, the Conservative Party in New York - who usually also nominates the person nominated by the R's - decided not to back Dede, but a conservative, Doug Hoffman. (Just don't ask about New York's wild election rules/parties).

The Conservative party is dominated by the "Tea Party" activists - those for less spending, less taxes, and less government intervention.

Most of the R leadership - but not all - supported Dede to begin with, but some signifncant others, like Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin, supported Hoffman.

As of last week, this was a very tight 3-way race, with Hoffman gaining momentum.

Then on Saturday, Dede dropped out - and today, she threw her support to.....the Democrat, Bill Owens!

There really isn't a precedent for a race like this in American politics, so it's impossible to figure out what is really going on or predict what will happen. Nonetheless, this is a fight for the Republican party and its principles - and how powerful the Tea Party movement really is.

This race can give many clues for 2010 and beyond. How poluar is the Tea Party? Should the Republicans really stand for something distinct from the last 6-8 years? Do voters really see much of a difference between the two parties - and are they comfortable going otuside the box?

EZ Line: Hoffman -1.5%.

4. Ohio Issue 3. This is like the Cleveland Browns of the 1980s- 3 times the Browns were within one step of the Super Bowl - and 3 times they were turned away.

This is the third attempt to pass legalize Casino gaming on Ohio in the past 4 years. Is this the year? Polls say it will pass....but we have heard this before. I will not get my hopes up.

EZ Line: No, -3.3%

5. Ohio Issue 2. Frankly, I don't care about this - but I did a little vote trading with my mother-in-law. She is a big Issue 2 supporter; I said I would support it if she voted yes on Issue 3. We have a deal!

EZ Line: Yes, -5.6%

Short Rest

OK, I get having CC pitch on short rest - he has a proven record of pitching well on short rest. However, once you go down that road - now you are forced to bring back Burnett on short rest. And forced to bring back Pettitte on short rest. Do we know how they will perform on short rest? Burnett who has had TJ surgery in his career, and Pettitte pitching HGH-free at this advanced stage in his career?

All I am saying is that this series ain't over! :)

NFL Week 8: Yellow Jasmine

OK, I'll say it: this hole is porbably the most boring hole on the course. An uphill par 5 with one fairway bunker on the right and a blind shot to teh green which is well guarded by - mounds. Mounds! When you think par 5's at Augusta, you think Water. Rae's creek. The Sarazen bridge.

Here? You think of a big mound to the right of the green - which today's players, with their creativity and prowess, can handle very well.

This is a perfect hole for the players to catch their breath; eagles are extremely rare, and you won't be passed by the field if you par. Just don't make a big mistake and move on.

That's what this week is in the NFL - another "big" bye week, with 6 of the teams sitting out (including my second favorite team this year, the Kansas City Chiefs). There is one marquee game - the Packers-Vikings showdown - but this is so overhyped it's sad. It's like Tiger and Phil walking through #8 - in the 11th group off the tee. Yeah, it's big, but there's so much more going on out there (like the World Series, NBA, the big NY-23 Special Election.....)

It's a boring hole representing a boring NFL week. It was hard for me to remember any 8th holes that are par 5's and fit this bill. The only one I could think of is the 8th at Moraine CC in Dayton, which of course probably none of you have played. It's a downhill, open, 580 yard par 5 that is devoid of any distinguishing characteristics. It's a space filler to get you from the 7th green to the 9th tee.

It's 4 in the morning. I can't do much better than that right now. On to the games:

Bal 27, Den 17. This should be an interesting game; I have to believe the Ravens will come out ready to play for this one.

Chi 28, Cle 10. Ugh.

Hou 24, Buf 16 The Ryan Fitzpatrick tour for the Bills has got to come to an end, right? And it's Houston's turn for a good week.

Ind 33, SF 16. Really - who can stop the Colts right now? Anyone?

Mia 24, NYJ 21 The Dolphins will force Sanchez to try to beat them - and he can't. That's how the saints won last week against Miami - through the air; the Jets don't have the passing game righ tnow to do that. They are very one-dimensional. Miami will take advantage and sweep the series.

StL 27, Det 26. I just can't believe the love the Lions are getting. They still are a 1 win team, you know. People see the Lions as one of the "better" bad teams in teh league. They still have no defense - and the Rams have weapons. I'm calling the upset.

Dal 28, Sea 20. Two teams I have no handle on.

NYG 27, Phi 20. I just don't think the Eagles are that good. I mean, they are good - but not at a high level. And the Giants will be pissed.

SD 27, Oak 10. I don't trust the Chargers to cover this large spread here.

Jax 23, Ten 13. Vince Young returns! please form a line if you are picking him up for your fantasy team.......

Min 28, GB 24. Just a hunch here. Allen vs the Packers' young offensive line, take 2.

Az 27, Car 10. Wow - I do not fathom how the panthers are this awful.

NO 31, Atl 26. Atlanta is a good team. They won't be embarrassed for a second straight week - especially not on Monday night.

Best bets: 12 of them. Bad week last week: 5-8-1; overall: 44-44-1

Bal -3.5
Hou -3

Ind -13

Mia +3.5

StL +4

StL/Det over 43.5

NYG -1

Jax +3

Jax/Ten under 44.5

Min +3

Az -10

Atl +11