I've been thinking about the topic of this post for a while now....it's a subject near and dear to my heart concerning Vegas and betting strategies. Would love to have the opinions of the group out there.
There are strategies out there for every casino game in order to maximize your chance of winning (or, more correctly, to minimize your losses). You don't bet on the horn in Craps (hello, drunk Eric, are you listening?). You follow the "card" for blackjack (and if you don't have the card, quickly text Leland).
But what is the optimum strategy for betting sports?
My original strategy is this:
a) You need to pick right more than 52.4% of the time in order to be a long-term winner
b) If you feel that you can, then by all means pick as many games as possible - if a) is true, then you will be a winner.
And so, I'm getting this reputation, right? I go to the window with $500 and come back with a stack of betting slips thicker than a William Faulkner novel.
But is that truly the right thing to do to maximize my winnings for the NCAA tournament?
I've been in search of a book out there that outlines the best strategies for a sportsbook. To my surprise, there is not much out there! There's 500 books on poker, 100 on blackjack, 50 on craps - but none at all specifically talking about sports betting strategies.
I've come across tow general gambling books with chapters on sports betting - and they both say the same thing....
1) Don't bet the whole board, but find the few (emphasis on FEW) games where you feel there is real value
2) Shoot your gun at those. It is much easier to go 3-1 on games you believe in than to go 13-11 across the board - and you are opening yourself up to the vig on that 13-11 scenario.
And I have to say, this makes sense.
Although I have proven (ahem! beating my chest proudly!) that I can beat the spread in the NFL 3 years in a row (each year, over 200 decisions/year over the 52.4% mark) - that doesn't mean squat in betting the NCAA Basketball tournament.
So - I think I will change my strategy this year - instead of having 15-17 bets on the 16 games each day on Thu/Fri, I will try to limit myself to 6-8 best value bets each day. This will allow me to increase my bet for each game...and therefore trying to maximize profits.
But this is MUCH easier said (for me ) than done.
What's the point on being in a sportsbook on NCAA tournament weekend when you don't have any action - however small - on each game? I usually make some "A", "B", and "C" picks for each day - usually encompassing all the games - and the total of my picks are close to the amount of games each day. Plus we have the random NIT games, women's games......
but I know realize that I will have to resist that temptation if I want to win money.
The main question that I keep coming back to is:
"Are you going to Vegas in order to have fun, or are you going to win money? The answer to that question determines your strategy."
And you know what? Honestly, I don't know how to answer that question in regard to the book.
So - assuming I am there wanting to win money, I am planning to change my strategy this year. I will bet a total of ~20 games or so all weekend (7 on Thu, 7 on Fri, 3 on Sat & Sun, for example). I fire the betting gun at those games and see what happens.
(On an aside - I've been thinking about the amount for each bet. Given a sports bankroll of $X, what should the bet on each game be in order to minimize the change that the bank will go to $0 after the 20 bets ----- like "Black Friday" last year, when I went 5-15. If I go 5-15 again - which is about a 4% chance, a risk I can accept - what is the bet on each game given a bank roll of $Y?)
So - I'll make 20 big bets, and the rest I may do some small parlays on. But you know that will drive me crazy when I go 6-14 on the big bets, and do well on the small bets..... that will kill me.
I'm practicing now - just picking a few games each day. I went 2-1 yesterday; I have 5 (and only 5! for today:
Lousiville PK
Loy-MD -2
Manhattan -9
Wisconsin +4
Arizona -5
Let's see what happens.
Thoughts on the new strategy? I really am interested to hear others' thoughts.
6 comments:
You are dealing with the variables of a.) bets and b.) $/bet. I like the idea of prioritizing (A,B,C), would it be possible to then bet ($X):
A = 3$X
B = 2$X
C = $X
(or something of the sort)
You then have action on all games, but the riskier games to a lesser extent. I would do all in my power to avoid parlays.
When you are viweing your final tally, you have your total (13-11) and your multiplier total.
That being said, I personally swing for the fences on 5-8 bets.
Crisis of confidence? My whole plan this year was to bet the opposite of you. :-)
Two books that might offer some insight. I have read niether one of them.
Gambling Theory and Other Topics by Mason Malmuth
Gambling for a Living by David Sklansky and Mason Malmuth
From what I could read between the lines from The Smart Money, you don't bet every game, just the ones where you think you have an advantage.
From a personal view point, you must put a little bit of money on EVERY single game. Breakfast, Lunch and Dinner just won't be the same without you and Derek checking scores on your pager every three minutes.
At the end of the day this trip has two goals for me. 1) Have some fun 2)win money. The question is how to balance the "stupid" bets, aka The Horn, vs value bets (aka the golf course). As I stated back in November, I plan to concentrate on Poker this trip. I believe I have an advantage here and hope to exploit it. The down side is, that with the expection of Saran, most of you will be at table games while we are at the Poker room. Clearly the biggest advantage when playing poker is between 11PM and 5AM IF you are sober. That midnight call from Saran was apainful in Nov. but really opened my eyes. The local "sharks" had gone home, the kids (fish) were in the pond.
rrd:
The A,B,C games are exactly what I have been doing. It was like a 55-44-33, or 88-66-44 thing - X, 1.5X, 2X.
That's not enough.
I may shift to a 1X-2X-6X this year.
Don:
" you must put a little bit of money on EVERY single game"
Well, $10 isn't so bad, right? $20? I can bet the other games to offset the vig on my big games. Maybe that's what I will do.
and...
"value bets (aka the golf course). "
That's bulletin board material, my friend. Don't expect any gimmes longer than 6 inches out there....
If you have data from past years (I am assuming you do), then reverse engineer your aX, bX, cX ratios to determine what gives you the best winning % and ride it.
Eric, I love that 6X idea. This way you can do $20, $40, $120? But then how do you decipher between the A and B games, because the C games are the easy ones.
Eric, I don't know what is the exact ratio here. But in watching you I've always thought that going with this method (vs the buffet all you can eat mode) you would be a very successful bettor. I think we actually had this discussion at the wedding.
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