Been pretty quiet around here for the last few days. I've been swamped at work helping to lead a technical symposium and who knows what Derek has been doing.
The Super Bowl for me, recently, seems to be an afterthought to the regular season. For me, the hard-core analysis of the games ends with the Championship games. That's when my intense interest for the NFL ends. The two weeks between the championship games and the Super Bowl are filled with fluff and actually lessens my interest for the big game.
It's like having a great golf round through 16 holes - and then having to wait 30 minutes on the 17th tee while 4 other groups play the par-3. The two weeks - and all the sideshows - disrupt the flow of the season in a big way.
It's not just the Super Bowl - I have the same feeling about the NCAA tournament as well. I get so jacked up for the 1st and 2nd round games; the 2nd weekend is great as well - but by the time the final four weekend comes around, it's overhyped and usually involves teams I hate. I mean, who here can get excited about a UConn-Duke final, for instance? One team is completely overrated, overhyped, with a coach the media loves to love- and the other is Duke!
The last final I watched from start to finish (besides the Md-Indiana final) would be... hmmm... Kentucky-Arizona in 1997? But I can give you the greatest upsets in the 1st/2nd round every year since 1987 or so.
So the Super Bowl, for me, is an excuse to party and not be overly concerned with the ins and outs of the game. My prediction is based on the key matchup: the Colts offense vs. the Bears D.
I'm not convinced at all that the Colts are the overwhelming favorite here. Let's review the facts:
1) They scored 38 points at home versus a defense that was clearly beat up and undermanned and that was suffering through heat exhaustion/flu with the dome temperatures artificially inflated. Good for them that they won, yes - but let's not think this was a explosive performance against a great defense.
What about the other playoff games?
2) They scored 23 points vs. Kansas City at home - that same defense that:
- let up 30 points to the Jaguars,
- let up 45 points to the Steelers (!)
- let up 31 points to the Browns (!!)
- and is coached by Herman Edwards
How impressive is that?
(and yes, that's the one Browns reference for the post)
3) In their next game, they didnot score a TD vs. the Ravens. Baltimore's defense is good - ok, great- but this year it was not oneof the all time best and probably was close to the Bears' defense in terms of performance.
Look, we all know Peyton plays well when the conditions are perfect and their line is able to contain the rush - but this is the Bears. They will disrupt the Peyton with their line play and stunts. And - the game is on grass, not in a dome. The COlts on grass/outdoors this year:
at NYG: 26 pts
at NYJ: 31
at Den:34 (!)
at NE: 27
at Dal: 14 (!)
at Ten: 17
at Jax: 17
at Hou: 24
at bal: 15
The trend is not great.
So - can the Bears offense score enough to pull it out? I think Lovie Smith would be wise to copy the strategy of the Giants in Super Bowl 25 - use a ball control offense and keep the ball away from the other team. The question is whether Rex can actually execute that sort of offense.
The Colts' D is good, but not as good as Berman and co. have made it out to be over the past 2 weeks. Again, they let up 8 points against a Herm Edwards-led Chiefs team, and held the Ravens to 6 points in probably McNair's worst game this year. But they let up 34 to the Pats, a good offense. I'm not saying the Bears are as good on offense as the Pats, but they are playing better than the Ravens' o right now.
I'm calling the upset, as Lovie outcoaches Dungy and the Bears' D rattles Peyton.
Chicago 23, Indianapolis 20.
(post edited at 1:15 pm ET).
best bets for today:
Chicago +6 1/2
Under 47 1/2
After tonight, we can then concentrate on the really important things, like the NCAA tournament and why Virginia is in the driver's seat for a bid while the Terps still need to win a few games down the stretch to impress anyone.
I have a feeling the NIT will provide a Champs Sports Bowl rematch.....
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