What do you bring to the table?

Hello again, friends. Lot of topics to blog about, most notably the NCAA tournament. I know I say this every year, but I really mean it this time: This is the weakest bubble (or dare I say, the weakest field) I have ever seen. Some examples:
- Notre Dame, who lost at home to Loyola Marymount, is considered in with 1 win in the Big East tourney.
- Wake Forest, who has lost thier last 5 games, is considered in;
- St Mary's, who can't get over the hump and beat Gonzaga, is just sitting around and at this point is in as others flail aroudn them (Dayton, UConn, Illinois, Ga Tech....)
- Va Tech is in with the 340th (yes, that's right) toughest out-of-conference schedule
- You will all crap your pants on Sunday when New Mexico is listed as a 2 seed....their coach? Steve Alford.....who took Iowa to the NCAAs in 2006 as a #3 seed.......and this is what happened....
- And Vanderbilt (who just lost at home to a weak team) is a 3, Kansas St (who lost at home to Iowa St) is a 2, and Duke - who has won 1 road game this year against a top 50 opponent - is a #1.

Maryland is playing their way nicely to a protected seed - maybe a #4 in Jacksonville? - against a #13 seed like.....Akron or Kent. Batten down the hatches in Vegas.

Anyway, more bubble talk later.

Let's turn out thoughts toward the table games....and I wanted to collect your thoughts on how much you bring to a table for a session? For instance, there is a $10 blackjack table open. What are you taking out of your wallet when you sit down?

To the games:

Craps: The hard one first. I used to think that $100 was sufficient at a $5 table - but not anymore. To feel comfortable, I think $200 at a $5 table would last you through a lot of bad luck. So that's 40x the minimum bet......
....but I don't follow this advice at the higher levels. That's just too much, and as the limits get higher, I become more conservative.

So - my rule of thumb:

40x the minimum for $5, and I need to do this for a $10 table too.
30x for $15 and up. That's now $750 for a drunken Sat night craps run......wow.

Blackjack: Well, you are talking to someone who made $20 last for 2 hours at a $5 table in Green Bay back in 1998. I think $125 is good for a $5 table to weather the storm - that's 25x. Does this translate? No, not really. At higher levels ($15 and up), I just take 20x. And I don't even do that at a $25 table.

My rule for 2010:
20x the minimum for blackjack.

Pai Gow/Pai Gow Poker: Given the small variance in this game (unless your last name is Dietrich), I think 12x is fine. This is $300 for a $25 table, which is about right.
12x-15x the minimum here.

Ultimate Texas Holdem: The granddaddy of them all. A great article on my new favorite website shows some good statistical details on this game. This looks at the probability of busting out vs. doubling up (or winning a pre-determined amount of money). With a starting bankroll of only 20 antes, it's a 33% chance that you bust out in 3 hours. With a larger starting bankroll, you stay in the game longer (obviously) and have a better chance of getting a profit at some time.

There is a 1.5% to bust out after 3 hours if you bring 100 antes to the table - that $500 for a $5 game! I can't do that. I don't think I can do 50x - $500 for a $10 table? I think 40x is the right level for me.

Roulette: Oh for God's sake, take $100 and enjoy the ride. No analysis here. If I need to put something, how about 20x the minimum.

Sports: There's really no set rule here - we can do the statisical analysis that I laid out two years ago to determine an appropriate level of wagering at the book. I hope to decrease the number of wagers this year (again) and place larger bets on the lower number of tickets. We'll see if I have the self discipline to do that.

Let's see some comments now, gentlemen (and ladies). It's less than two weeks and no one is commenting.