Election blog

Here we go! I'm here in a hotel room in Boston watching the results come in. Instead of the famous multi-colored whiteboards that I create for the election, I'm tracking the election on various bits of paper.

Stay with us here for my latest thoughts on the races - all races - tonight; not just the presidency but the Senate (will the Democrats get to 60?), House, Governor, and the all-important ballot issues such as ISSUE 6 in Ohio - the Casino issue.

Let's try to have comments on this live blog, ok? I don't want to feel like I am talking to a wall...

7:05: McCain wins KY, Obama wins VT. McCain went for 2 and got it; Obama settled for a FG. McCain leads, 8-3.

7:20: NBC News projects the Democrats keep control of the House. How? How do they do that? I'm serious. How can they call that so early?

7:35: This is the slow time of the election. The anticipation is here - polls are closing - but nothing can be called. Argh. If they call Ohio soon, it's over; the longer the delay is in calling Ohio, the better it is for McCain.

One big Senate race being counted right now is the KY Senate race - Sen Majority Leader Mitch McConnell is neck and neck right now (49-49) with 15% in. If this stays tight, then that's a good sign for Democrats nationwide. However, I remember this happening in KY 4 years ago - the late KY votes to be counted are usually the rural votes, reliably Republican. If that's the same here, then McConnell may win by 5-8%, which is a good sign for Republicans.

7:40. Stop talking, Brit Hume. "McCain leads, 13-3, right now in the electoral vote, although we suspect that will change - and soon." Oh really, Sherlock? The defense won't hold?

7:45: Room service is here!
First course: Spinach salad
Main course: 9" Supreme Pizza
Dessert: Strawberry Shortcake
A glass of Pinot Grigio
and a 500 ml bottle of Pellegrino.

That's a good informal survey question. Sparkling water: justifiable indulgment or waste of money and taste buds? You decide....

7:52: Is Snoop Dogg joking here in this clip? You decide....

8:05: The 8 o'clock polls have closed; no surprises here. Obama now leads, 77-39.

Perils of Live TV: John King on CNN was playing with the big map behind him. He was look ing at Indiana and comparing the current vote vs. the 2004 vote totals. He said: "let's take a look at a random county", and clicked somewhere in the north of the state. The county came up:

"Koshiminko County"

King: "Uh, I'm not even going to try that one....."

8:11: First big result of the night from the Senate: Elizabeth Dole (R) in North Carolina has lost. This was a seat the Democrats had to have if they wanted to get to 60 - and they did.

8:20: ABC News has called Pennsylvania for Obama, but no other station has not. I will wait.

Senate: McConnell, the Senate Minority leader, looks like he will win. That's a big one to stop the Dems from getting 60.

Right now, it's hard to see how they get there. If they win the rest of the toss ups (GA, NH, CO, OR, AK), even then they may not get there. I'll run the numbers.

8:33: Most stations have called Pennsylvania for Obama. That's great news for Obama, not good news for the Rep.

Also, New Hampshire Senate is a pickup for the Dems - John Sununu has lost.

8:39: McCain has won Georgia. That's a fairly good sign for the Republicans; the fact that it was called this early (relatively early) for McCain means that it probably won't be a cealn sweep (like 350 votes) for Obama.

8:57: Well, it's hard to see how McCain gets to 270 without Pennsylvania. This means - I think - he needs to pick up a Obama state somewhere to have any sort of a chance. To win, McCain needs to sweep the Bush states still out - OH, VA, IN, FL - and then somehow pick up MN? OR?. This is becuase NH has already been called for Obama (a Bush state), and it's pretty certain that IA will go to Obama.

If Minnesota is called early, then I think that Obama will win, and it should be called right at 11 pm.

9:07: Well, the 9:00 votes are in, and there are no surprises. Obama wins Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan; McCain wins states like Wyoming and Arkansas.

Counts are all over the place right now, Fox has Obama at 163 and NBC has it at 177; once we get to 215, that's the magic number before California. California is 55 and is certain to go to Obama.

So - if Virginia and Ohio go to Obama soon, then it's all over.

Popular vote: Obama 12, 315,854; McCain 12, 232,192. Amazingly close popular vote at this point.

9:20: Fox News has called Ohio for Obama. Wow. That about does it. I wonder how this will trickle down to Steve Chabot - the rep in the 1st district in Cincinnait - and Don's girlfriend, Jean Schmidt.

But, as of 9:20, Fox is the only station to call Ohio. CNN, ABC, CBS, NBC has not yet.

9:28: Now NBC has called Ohio for Obama.
Let's take a look at the Senate:
At this time, the Dems have 52 seats. Here are the seats that are still out there:
CO (could be a pickup)
LA (Landrieu, the only Dem incumbent even reomtely in trouble)
MN (Stuart Smalley)
IA (Harkin will win)
MT (Baucus)
OR (Gordon Smith, a Rep, is in a toss up)
AK (Indicted Rep Senator Ted Stevens)
MS, 2nd seat (Wicker/Musgrove:Can they pick this one up? A long shot)

The Dems need to win all 8 to get to 60. I guess it could happen, but I think they will lose by 2 (and lose MS and OR).

9:34: I see some in the comments section are popping the martinis. I don't blame you. I think it's time for me to break into my strawberry shortcake.

9:41: Still 50 people in line in Miami-Dade county polling booths. Who thinks that Florida will be called soon? Not me. This is 1 1/2 hours after the polls officially closed - people have been waiting in line since 8:00.

9:44: I will try not to be bitter tonight about media bias, but I want this to be duly noted.

When NJ closed at 8 pm, it was immediately called for Obama.
When GA closed at 7 pm, it was called for McCain at 8:39 , almost 100 minutes after closing.

Results so far:

NJ: Obama 55, McCain 44 (+11)
GA: McCain 59, Obama 40 (+19)

both with > 50% reporting.

Watch GA and SC and how (non) close they are. These are states that were not called immeiately for McCain. Compare that to states that were immediately called for Obama.

9:57: What is with CBS News? At the bottom of the screen, they have the raw popular vote totals for McCain and Obama. It seems to be updated every second - so the numbers move very quickly. And - peculiarly - the numbers seem to move backward every once in a while....from (for example) 13, 415,679 to 13,142, 234.

Is it a random number generator? Is it the vote display that was used in the Love Connection back in the 80's? 78%-22&-15%-45%....

(now I bet you have that sound effect in your head...doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-doo-dooooooo)

10:10: The Ohio Casino Amendment has failed. Argosy, and other Indiana casinos, have bought this election and defeated a casino for Ohio. You dumb fuck Ohio voters.

Also, the payday lending restriction issue has passed. This caps the annual interest rate for "payday" loans to 28% annually - basically, if you borrow $100 now, you will pay no more than $101 in 2 weeks. Effectively, this will put all of the payday lenders in Ohio out of business.

So 5,000 people will be put out of work by shutting down the payday lenders, and we didn't want to creat 6,000 jobs with the casino. Maybe I should move to Indiana.

10:16: Two bad pieces of news from the House: Chris Shays, a Republican from Connecticut, has been defeated; this means there is no Republican House members from New England (VT, NH, ME, CT, RI, MA). None.

John Murtha, the "fat bastard" Democratic congressman from Western Pa who called some of his consistuents "racists" and then - while apologizing, called them "rednecks", has been re-elected.

10:35: Michael Barone, the smartest political mind on television, says that Florida "looks awfully good for Obama" right now. It's not called yet, but most of the remaing precinct are in Dade and Broward coutnies - and obviously, those are going to go to Obama.

10:42: Fox has called Virginia for.....Obama. This is a signficant development, not only for this year but as a prelude to a possible political realignment for the future. There is no question that Virginia is gaining population and will continue to grow; if teh Democrats can consolidate their gains in the Sun Belt states like VA and NC, this could set the stage for Dem dominance over the next several years.

10:55: I'm sorry if this is insensitive, but why is Luke Russert on TV? His dad was great - absolutely. This does not mean his 20-something year old son is qualified to talk about "the youth vote" on TV.

10:57: Senate update: Yes, it is still possible for the Dems to get 60, but it's looking tough. Landrieu - the only D senator in a real competitive race - is only up 2 in Louisiana, and Wicker in MS (the Reupblican) has a 10% lead with 25% left. It's not called, but....if either of those go to the R's, then 60 is unreachable.

10:58: 2 minutes until Obama is pronounced President at 11:00 Eastern.

11:00. Barack Obama has been elected as the 44th President of the United States. I'll have more about this in an upcoming blog post.

ABC announced it, and loud claps were heard in the newsroom when Charlie Gibson made the statement. That was unprofessional.