Week 16: COVID

Hope everyone had a great Christmas!  Ours was secluded as now I have COVID after surviving Carol and the kids getting it two weeks ago.  While it wasn't that bad, somehow I also got Strep.  I finally feel better today and looking forward to watching some football. 

In March of 2019 we decided to make a return trip to Vegas.  Eric’s battle had a lot of ups and downs in 2018.  Chemo took a toll on him early on, but it was working and got some early signs that he was recovering.  He seemed to be in good enough spirits to join the group at Bandon Dunes and be the only person to play in the tournament in a cart.  The second half of the year things were not going all that well, but he started to feel better towards the end of the year and wanted to return to Vegas.  So everyone returned along with Micah, as he just won the Golf Fantasy Pool the year before and had money to burn.  Before the larger group arrived, Wiz, Eric, and I played a round at a new place in town.  An annual Vegas tradition seems to be Eric’s mad dash before golfing to get the team parlay in at the book.  This is such a hassle for him, especially when the majority of the group is not even in Vegas yet.  Trying to coordinate 7 grown men to text in their pick is pretty comical. And when the book doesn't even know the games we are trying to play it makes it even more frustrating. 

 First golf session of the trip that morning - at Canyon Gate CC, a new course in our rotation But first, I got all the picks for the parlay from the morning travelers.....and one of them included Lamar. I went to the Mirage book to place the parlay - and saw the Lamar game was not listed. I asked about it.

"What conference is that?"

Southland.

"Southwestern?"

No! Southland.

"Is that Division I?"

YES! you idiot!

If you are working in the book on Conference championship week, you better know the Div I conferences. Period. Who are they hiring in the book? So I decided to take a walk across the street to the Venetian where, yes, the Lamar game was listed and I put the parlay in.

And before golf - some quick gambling at, you guessed it - Face up Pai Gow.

The weather all week in Vegas was cold - I bundled up as much I as I could on a blustery Sunday where the temperature never broke 65, I think , in the afternoon. I liked the course - driving the ball relatively well helped - but I got tired and faded over the last 3-4 holes. The highlight of the round was on the 11th hole, where Layup hit a ball off the tee left into the pines. He was next to a bush and about 10-15 feet inside the fence line protecting the course from million dollar mansions.

With an awkward stance, he swung - and I'm still not sure how this is physically possible, but the ball went about 85 degrees left. It hit the fence twice - BING BING - and we heard another BANG as the ball hit some house somewhere. Thank God it was about 2 pm and no one seemed to be at home in those houses.

Also - since we didn't know the course, gooches were prevalent. Drives that seemed to be down the middle started taking sloped we didn't know existed and ended up in the rough or worse, hazards. I remember one horrible moment by Layup on my drive on the 13th where my ball landed on the right edge of the fairway and ended up in the penalty area on the left - after Layup said "great drive". I think our gooch score that day was Layup 4, Eric 3.

All in all, a nice course to add in the rotation; the weather ruined it a bit but can't blame the course for that. Food and bar area was very nice as well. 

It was a pretty non descript trip though.  I do remember lots of grinds in the Salon and lots of UTH as usual. 

Onto the games

SF @ Titans+3:  Loved the Titans here and they came through. 

Browns@ GB-7.5:  Loved Browns in this game as well.  GB always has a let down in a game like this.  I understand the refs were bad, but man so was Baker.  Really rough to watch him, but they covered 😊 

Colts @ Cards-1:  Loved the Colts here mainly on the coaching mismatch and Kyler not looking healthy still. 

Lions @ Falcons -5.5:  This is probably a trap, but bet the Falcons after seeing Goff out. 

Bucs @ Panthers +10:   Bucs banged up and on the road.  Way too many points.

Jags@ Jets PK:  Yikes. Is this too easy to take the Jets at home?  Why isn’t this a bigger line?

Giants @ Eagles -9.5:  Line is going crazy here recently.  I’m staying away.  Both of these teams has just screwed me

Chargers @ Texans +10:  Ekler is out.  Cooks is out.  I’m out.

Bills @ Pats -2.5:   I don’t understand the love here for the Bills.   How do you bet against the Pats at home in a big game like this?

Rams @ Vikings +3:  Like the Rams here.  Vikings missing too much. 

Ravens @ Bengals -2.5:  Well I bet this before Huntley was out.  While its part of the Supercontest and best bets, I’m hedging out.

Bears @ Seahawks -6.5:  Love the Seahawks here with anything under 7. 

Broncos @ Raiders PK:  Lock on the road?  How is this line still so low.   

Steelers @ Chiefs -7.5: Wanted to take the Chiefs here but the COVID news was too scary and now this looks like a steal and the line is now up at 10.5.

Skins @ Cowboys -11: Cowboys don’t look right still and I’ll take the skins with the points in this divisional game

Dolphins @ Saints -3:  Love the Dolphins here. 

 

 

Best Bets

Titans

Browns

Colts

Falcons

Panthers

Pats

Raiders

Ravens – but hedged out

Chiefs

Chiefs Under

Dolphins

 

Supercontest

Colts

Browns

Falcons

Dolphins

Ravens

Week 15: Supercontest

 2018 started out as an amazing year.   I quit my job with AIG on December 15^th, 2017 and put in a one months notice to basically help them close down the fiscal year and wrap up any loose ends in January.  I was going to start with a new startup company called PURE Insurance in mid January.  After my initial conversation with my boss at AIG, he asked me for a couple of things and then stated that he couldn’t have me work anymore since I was going to a competitor.  So I basically had a 3 week paid vacation which was amazing.   This coincided with Eric’s hot run in the Supercontest.  Eric was already coming out with the family for the week after Christmas for us to spend sometime in San Diego and Los Angeles.  But he started to carefully mention that if….IF he continues his hot streak, would I be willing to go out to Vegas with him for the last NFL Sunday to potentially hedge his wagers.  Well of course I would.  I’m being paid not to work, plus in California you can roll over 100% of your unused PTO time and when you leave they have to cash you out.  So I had about 45 days of paid PTO that was coming my way and it was burning a hole in my pocket.  

So Eric and the family comes out and we have a great time.  We are up in Los Angeles taking the kids to all the museums and attractions.   I started to notice that Eric was struggling to eat.  He was burping a lot and looking so uncomfortable.  I remember that we were at this sandwich shack on the beach in Santa Monica where he said he thinks he has an ulcer and needs to get it scoped but there is such a backlog that he can’t get it done until mid January, despite talking to the doctors in November about it.  He did seem somewhat concerned, but in the typical Eric style he powered on and didn’t complain or let any of this ruin the trip.  

The Sunday that he gets there, he goes 3-2 in the Supercontest, putting him in 8^th place overall well within the money. And not just a small prize but close to $100k.  But the bigger concern is that the standings are bunching up.  If Eric goes 2-3 the next week there is a chance that he doesn’t finish in the money.  If he goes 1-4 he definitely will be out of the money.  So we plan to head out to Vegas to hedge his wagers, meaning that we are going to try and lock in some level of profit, in case he bombs his picks.   So we get to Vegas. Eric wires $25k into the Mirage cage.  $5k hedge on each game, plus additional action with our bookie who Eric had to explain what he was doing so that he would increase his per game limit.  Trying to discuss with the Mirage cage worker on what we wanted to do was comical.  I need to move that money into the sportsbook to place 5 wagers.  This took about 15 minutes to figure out and in the end the cashier gave us five $5k chips to take over.  Eric looked at me and said to take them because he’s too nervous and doesn’t want to lose them.  So I grab them and walk maybe 100 feet over to the sportsbook where Eric places the wagers.  The manager comes out and they have a nice conversation and he asks why he was betting so much since they don’t show him as a big gambler in the sportsbook.  He explains the Supercontest with the manager saying he’s never heard of it before. What?   Outrageous.  That’s like a poker pit boss saying that they never heard of the World Series of Poker before.  Anyway, they give Eric 5 drink tickets…5!   I couldn’t stop laughing.  Eric says something snarky about it and the manager apologizes and offers us a couch to sit at during the games on Sunday which we take him up on.  

Sunday arrives, Eric is a mess. I send Carol and Janice away for the morning (just trying to keep these two away from Eric).   Usually Eric is very animated during games. For the first half he is silent.  The games started to turn his way and he started to get more and more animated.  By the 4^th quarter he was back to himself. Screaming at the TV’s, doing his ref impersinations (Holding Defense number 23, 5 yard penalty 1^st down), and drinking up a storm.  It all ends with him going 4-1 and finishing in 6^th place for $142k.  We connect back with Janice and Carol and have a nice dinner with everyone.  We celebrate with a group Baccarrat session where we all drink way too much.  Eric is on cloud 9.    

On Monday evening Eric and I go over to the Westgate to collect.  This was just a comical experience.  First we basically had a grandmother helping us, who didn’t know what to do.  The management team didn’t know what to do either.   To complicate things a little more, Eric’s entry was under my name.  So I have to fill out all of the tax forms and basically I’m the winner (I take credit for cashing in Supercontest). So finally we get the sportsbook to give us a ticket that we have to get cashed at the main cage.   We get to the cage and we get invited to a backroom to decide how we want the money.  Fascinating.  The general manager meets us and congratulates us. Asks us if we want rooms there..Ha! I wouldn’t stay at that dump.   Eric wanted $50k in cash and the rest in a check (check is in my name though).  So Eric and I run out of the casino and into a cab with $50k in cash stuffed in our pants hoping nothing happens until we can get to the Mirage and put it in our safe.   We gamble a little, and then we all head back to LA so they can fly home. 

Two weeks later Eric gets his scope and tests results back and he has stage 4 stomach cancer.  I don’t have any thing profound to say on that.  It was devastating. Still devastating to this day.  I knew something more serious was wrong than just an ulcer. I kept on yelling at him over this time to eat better and slow down. Boy I was completely wrong.  The chemo quickly took a toll on him and we cancelled our March trip.  More to come on some of the trips while he was sick to close out the week.

 Games:  What a messed up week.  So many COVID injuries making this impossible to handicap.  Other than the Supercontest picks, I went in on the Steelers and Atlanta.  

 

Supercontest:

Chargers

Colts

Ravens

Bengals

Saints

Week 14: Japonais

 

Sorry for the delay in the posting.  Carol flew out to Cleveland to catch a show with Janice, so I had the kids at the beginning of the week, then Carol got the flu, knocking her out, which then resulted in Morgan getting the flu.  So Wyatt and I have been trying to avoid everyone and everything. At to top it off, its Morgan’s birthday today.   I planned on waking up early to do the post, but was a little hungover and ended up watching the F-1 race from bed.  What an ending.  I’m sure if I gambled on F-1, I would have had Hamilton to win the championship resulting in me burning down my house after that ending. 

 

Anyway onto the Vegas trip in 2017.  Nothing major happened here…pretty quiet trip other than Wiz getting into it with a guy who was watching us play BJ.   Wiz was already on tilt and then this guy wouldn’t stop hovering and commenting on our hands.  So after asking him several times to leave, Wiz got up and confronted him and backed him down out of the Salon.   Pit Bosses didn’t really react and just let it go on.  

 

Lots of UTH and Baccarrat sprinkled in with some great golf.  Southern Highlands and Shadow Creek.  This was my only time playing Shadow Creek. Was pretty impressive. I remember being hungover and not being able to hit the ball. On the 3^rd hole I said I needed a drink and a cigarette.  Our caddy asked what did I want. Minutes later I saw a guy running down to the green with a pack of Marlboro lights and a vodka tonic.  Amazing

 

This year we had a lot of action on the parlays.  I got lucky and was the only winner in our group parlay which means that I got a free dinner.  Unfortunately this was on one of the nights were we didn’t have a planned dinner.  Everyone except for Wiz and maybe Lee decided on going the sushi restaurant, which I was good with. 

 

Dinner that night was at Japonais in the Mirage; Layup earned a free dinner as he was the "1" from the 1-6 parlay yesterday - we treated him to dinner at Japonais, but I think he was expecting something else. This - and a parlay ruling we will talk about tomorrow - requires some more details on how the parlay works. Where can the winner "cash" his dinner?

 

Ok, Eric leaves out a couple of things.  First, we couldn’t get a table so we had to sit in the lounge section, where we were all on stools.  Our table was even a stool.   We order a couple of rolls since we couldn’t really eat and that was it.  My free dinner was basically 3 pieces of rice.   I was hot about it.  I’m still pissed because of something that happened to me in a future trip.  The dinner should have been continued to the next night when everyone was present and we had a table to sit down at.  But no, the rule was that it had to be cashed in that day.  Whatever.  Keep this in mind when we do the November 2019 recap. 

 

Ravens @ Browns:  So torn here.  This should be a layup for the Browns, but I don’t trust them.

Raiders @ Chiefs:  Love this game. Why are the Chiefs favored by so many

Cowboys @ Redskins:  Line movement is in favor of the Cowboys.  Loved the Redskins at 4.5 now I’m super scared.

Falcons @ Panthers: Who cares. 

Saints @ jets: Who cares #2

Jags @ Titans: Love the Titans.  Meyer will be fired shortly

Seahawks @ Texans:  Love the Texans.  Wilson is still injured.

Lions @ Broncos:  Can the Lions even field a team.  Broncos should roll

Giants @ Chargers:  Chargers aren’t that great.  Giants are still giving full effort. Love the Giants

49ers@ Bengals:  Can’t trust either team.  Like the 49ers, but won’t bet it.

Bills @ Bucs: Must win for the Bills. TB loves playing at home. Getting some value here with the .5 point.

Bears @ Packers:  Revenge game.  Taking the Bears again

Rams @ Cards:  Like the Rams on the road here

 

 

Best Bets

Giants

Titans

Texans

Bears

Rams

Raiders

Broncos

Redskins

 

SuperContest

Giants

Bears

Raiders

Texans

Bills

Week 13: Wheel of Fortune

 After mailing it in last week during Thanksgiving, I’m going to interrupt the historical recap with a more recent summary of a Vegas Trip.   On Wednesday Wiz and I met up in Vegas.  We were itching to go out and I was out in Scottsdale earlier in the week and he had 3 days free in his busy golf schedule to come on out.  Since MGM announced that they were going to sell the Mirage, we decided to try out a new casino. Thinking back on it, we should of stayed at the Mirage one last time as a tribute.  But we decided on the Aria.  And I don’t think I will be going back.   Not a huge fan of the layout and the service was spotty. And the mask

 Reverse Reverse Gooch:  What’s worse than having a dealer congratulate you on winning the hand after the flop and then losing the hand?  Having the dealer miscall your losing hand as a winning hand after he flops over a monster.  This guy Paul did this several times.  I have a straight, no problem because you have a flush.  I have a flush?  Yes.  You sure, I don’t think I do.  Flips over my cards, Oh guess you don’t.   And to top it off, the pit boss was making comments on why I was going in on Q-10 and lower pocket pairs. And to double top it off, there was a guy betting $200 per hand, plus $500 on the trips, and with a $100 on this 6 card bonus thing.  He didn’t know how to play, but he was killing it.  Hit every fucking trips and 6 card bet out there.  He had stacks of yellows.  And he was a loudmouth yelling for cards each hand. I lost it. The only consoling factor was that he was bragging to us that he just put in a $10k wager on the Saints.  Let’s go Cowboys!!! 

 Masks:  So while I was going through the above ordeal, Wiz was getting yelled at by the pit boss for not putting on his mask.  The one time that finally made Wiz lose it was when he took a sip of his cocktail and before he could put down his glass the pit boss yelled at him to put on his mask.  There was a testy exchange between the two with Wiz calling him a libtard.  I quickly bought a pack of cigarettes and chain smoked so I didn’t have to put my mask up. 

Aria's Salon: Very nice. Dealers and the pit bosses were great.   But the limits jump up a bit which makes things a little more serious. I went on a nice little run on BJ, and Wiz was able to get out breaking even which was a huge accomplishment.  

Rule #1 for Vegas: Never leave Wiz and I alone.  NEVER.  Well with us two left to our own devices we found a dangerous new game.   So the last time I was in Vegas with Carol in September,  Carol turned $100 into $14k on slots.  She started playing the $1 Wheel of Fortune and after winning $400, I told her we should go check out the high limit slot area.  So we go back there and she plays the $25 wheel of fortune machine.  She hit a spin on her last pull and won $2,500.  I was so excited and thought we were going to leave, but she printed out the ticket and put it in a $100 Wheel of Fortune machine.  Now on a $100 Wheel of Fortune machine, when you spin the payouts range from $2,500-$40,000.  And over the next 30 minutes she must of hit the spin 4 times.   It was magical.  Never felt so alive.

 

So I tell Wiz this and we find these machines at the Aria.   And we start pumping money in.  And not a single spin.  It got so bad that we actually took out a marker….in the slot area.  You call for a marker and they give you a single ticket to put into the machine.  Ugh.   So after both of us working separately on the machine, we joined forces and decided to pool our money and split the profits.  There was a point where I put our money in and he had to take a conference call so he walked into this room right behind the machine and watched me play and was getting so angry when we would just miss out on a spin.  And things only got worse...way worse.  Markers were flying around that afternoon. But finally we got a spin.  The video is below.  I cut the video as Wiz was devastated on landing between $40,000 and $12,000 and we got $2,500 and went into a tirade.  Plus we were so loud while playing it with the only other people in there being older Asian men and Grandma's.   We continued and got another spin a little later and hit for something larger but nothing to get us out of the hole we dug for ourselves. 

So on the last morning before Wiz's flight we did one last session of UTH.  We both did well and thought it was a great way to end the short trip.  But as usual, we couldn't help ourselves and we decided to pool some money and do one last Wheel of Fortune session.   And it was so disappointing. 

Onto the games

 Chargers @ Bengals -3: No clue on this game.  Bengals will probably blow this, but I can't back the Chargers right now. 

Vikings @ Lions +7:  Despite the Vikings being a poor team, this is still the Lions.  And why is this only 7?  

Giants @ Dolphins -4:  I was excited to take the Giants here expecting a regression from Tua against a solid D.  But now Jones is out, and while I know that there isn’t a big drop off between him and Glennon, I just can’t back Glennon on the road.

TB @ Falcons +11:  Want to go with the Falcons here.  TB on the road isn’t the same as they are at home. 

Colts @ Texans -9:   Divisional game which concerns me, but I do like the Colts here. They are playing really well. 

Cardinals @ Bears +7:  I like the bears at home here.  If Kyle plays he will be rusty.

Eagles @ Jets +6.5:  I can’t trust the Eagles.  They let me down so much last week.  I’ll take the points with the Jets

Jaguars @ Rams -13:  I don’t care about this team.  Hate the Rams long term, but this is a game where I can see OBJ going off for 3 touchdowns and people going bonkers and then he will disappear for the next 6 weeks.

Skins @ Vegas -2.5:  This seems like such a trap. Everyone I hear loves the Skins.  Professionals love the Skins. Public love the Skins. But the line has remained steady. 

49ers @ Seahawks +3.5:  49ers are without their two best players.  But the Seahawks have given up.  If this moves down under 3, I’ll take the 49ers.

Ravens @ Steelers +4.5:  Love the Steelers.  Weird stat in this match up.  The favorite of 3.5 or more points is 1-12 in their match ups. 

Broncos @ Chiefs -9.5:  I would jump on the Broncos if it wasn’t for the uncertainty of Bridgewater.  I know the Chiefs are unstoppable after a bye, but they have been flat all year.

Pats @ Bills -3:  I got in on the Bills -2.5.  Love the Bills here.  Think the Pats are a force and might make it to the Superbowl, but I don’t like them in primetime in Buffalo. 

 

Best Bets: Will do the overall count tomorrow, but Bob my bookie is loving that I’m doing this best bet thing.  Went super cold and then average over the last couple of weeks. 

Vikings

Dolphins

Colts

Falcons

Bears

Jets

Vegas

Steelers

Bills

 

SuperContest

Bills

Steelers

Jets

Vikings

Falcons