I have a feeling that todays election will produce some surprises. I'm just not sure which way yet! Here is a quick preview of my thoughts as I try to keep this as fact based as possible. Please feel free to call me out on the facts if I have something in error.
Fact: Obama won in 2008 by a 53-47 margin (7 points).
Opinion: I think we can all agree that the popular vote polls are about even right now. Some say Romeny +1, some say Obama +2 - can we call it even?
Fact: If we call it even, then that's a 7 point swing to the R side.
Fact: The Presidency isn't decided by the vote, it's decided by the states
Fact: Florida went for Obama by 2.8% in 2008 and Ohio for Obama by 4.6%.
Opinion: It's hard for me to understand how Obama keeps Florida. I think that state (and NC, and IN) is in Romney's column now.
Opinion: If the national swing is 6 points, then I think Ohio will swing to Romney. Barely, but it will.
Fact: Obama won Virginia by 7% four years ago.
Opinion: This will be a nail biter in VA. How much does the federal worker presence in Northern VA outweigh coal country?
Opinion: Is Pennsylvania really in place?
Fact: On 5 dimes, I can bet on Obama with -340 odds (and Romney with +280 odds).
Fact: The partisan turnout in 2008 was Democrats +8 ( I think).
Opinion: There's no way that is repeated again this year. I think it will be D +2, D +1 or so.
Fact: Many of the polls you see show a "weighting" of D+6 or higher (CNN was D+11 yesterday).
Opinion: How does that even make sense? How is Romney tied with a sample of Democrats 11 points higher?
I just hope this election is decisive one way or another.
Prediction: really? I have to pick this? I think Romney will win Ohio, eke out Virginia and that will put him within one state......and I think Wisconsin will decide it all............
I'll be here in the morning (my morning) to comment....let's have a good old fashioned open thread as the results come in......
Fact: Obama won in 2008 by a 53-47 margin (7 points).
Opinion: I think we can all agree that the popular vote polls are about even right now. Some say Romeny +1, some say Obama +2 - can we call it even?
Fact: If we call it even, then that's a 7 point swing to the R side.
Fact: The Presidency isn't decided by the vote, it's decided by the states
Fact: Florida went for Obama by 2.8% in 2008 and Ohio for Obama by 4.6%.
Opinion: It's hard for me to understand how Obama keeps Florida. I think that state (and NC, and IN) is in Romney's column now.
Opinion: If the national swing is 6 points, then I think Ohio will swing to Romney. Barely, but it will.
Fact: Obama won Virginia by 7% four years ago.
Opinion: This will be a nail biter in VA. How much does the federal worker presence in Northern VA outweigh coal country?
Opinion: Is Pennsylvania really in place?
Fact: On 5 dimes, I can bet on Obama with -340 odds (and Romney with +280 odds).
Fact: The partisan turnout in 2008 was Democrats +8 ( I think).
Opinion: There's no way that is repeated again this year. I think it will be D +2, D +1 or so.
Fact: Many of the polls you see show a "weighting" of D+6 or higher (CNN was D+11 yesterday).
Opinion: How does that even make sense? How is Romney tied with a sample of Democrats 11 points higher?
I just hope this election is decisive one way or another.
Prediction: really? I have to pick this? I think Romney will win Ohio, eke out Virginia and that will put him within one state......and I think Wisconsin will decide it all............
I'll be here in the morning (my morning) to comment....let's have a good old fashioned open thread as the results come in......
2 comments:
Our fine governor Kasich, pissed off the unions with sb5. It didn't surprise me that we went for Obama. A police sergeant friend of mine was a republican until that was passed a couple of years ago. Add on to that the lies that Romney was telling about auto jobs moving to China and being against the auto bailout, that wouldn't help get votes here out Michigan.
I think you have something here, Kermit. I think it's clear that Romney and the Republicans wanted to win here by pulling the old "Reagan coalition" back together, including the "Reagan democrats".
Well, someone forgot to realize that a big big portion of Reagan democrats were union members.
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