Aug 30, 2008

Wow, looks just like Eric


So for one day lets put aside on VP issues and take a momment and congratulate Eric, as his third boy was born this morning. I had some people there at the hosptial taking pictures and wanted to share. Looks like we have our 8th for Vegas.

Aug 26, 2008

Veepstakes, part 2!

Now let's review the VP choices on the Republican side. I am trying to see if I can clear my schedule to head to Dayton on Friday to see McCain unveil his VP pick for the first time publicly.

However, I'm becoming more and more convinced that this election - in general - is not about McCain and what he can promise/say/do. The election will ultimately be decided by the Hillary Clinton primary voters. Will they come home - come back home to the Democratic party? Or will they stay home and not voter out of anger/apathy/sickness on Election Day? That is the #1 question for the next 3 months.

(I'm wathcing Hillary's speech now - so far, an absolute bore, except for one zinger on Bush/McCain. "It makes sense that they have their convention in the Twin Cities! They're practically twins!" I didn't do it justice here, but that line is so far the only highlight.)

Anyway, can McCain pick a VP that may change Hillary Clinton voter dynamic - and exacerbate the split in the Democratic party? Or will he choose a VP that may influence one or two key states in an election that may be excrucriatingly close? Eric's odds:

Tim Pawlenty (MN): 5-1. A Republican governor of a somewhat blue state. I'm not sure he himself can overcome the R label and turn Minnesota from blue to red. He is a social conservative, semi-young, and telegenic, very much like Bayh. A national unknown, however. McCain would choose him if- and only if - he'd guarantee Minnesota for McCain. And I don't think he can.

Joe Lieberman (I-CT): 6-1. Wow. This would turn the race on its end. However - ask yourself this: does McCain feel he is behind enough to take this sort of a risk? If McCain was 8-10 points down (think Dole, 96), this pick would make sense. I don't think he needs to take this risk.

Rob Portman (OH): 20-1. Bush's budget director, and a former congressman from Ohio (I think from Don's district)! Very popular in SW Ohio, but that doesn't mean he can carry the state. Too unknown, no benefits.

Mike Huckabee (AR): 10-1. He's making a strong move as we come to the home stretch! What a way to thank your pirmary "opponent" (if you can call him that) by tag-teaming with McCain against Romney. And with McCain's apparent weakness on economics, this pick could shore up the blue collar vote that usually would be Democratic but don't like Obama.

But - ugh. A lot of downsides, especially to the socially moderate/progressive.

Meg Whitman (CA): 20-1. The former eBay chairwoman. I know nothing about her, but she has been mentioned as a possible candidate to shore up the domestic program of McCain. And the word "eBay" may help with the age issue for McCain. But still - a political novice? (and that's being nice?)

Tom Ridge (PA): 30-1. We have an inside source on this blog that has heard firsthand that Ridge will not be picked. Should we believe him?

Mitt Romney (MA): 3-1. I guess, by process of elimination, the front runner. The political calculation positives are pretty strong: the Mormon issue may affect him negatively in some states, but it is a strong positive in states like Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico, all battleground states that McCain needs. The Romney name is also popular in Michigan, and may turn the dial toward McCain a few points.....

but there's something about him I don't like. Too smooth, too polished, too telegenic. He seems like a car salesman. And that's a turnoff.

The Field: 1-1. I am more and more convinced McCain will choose somebody not on the above list. Newt Gingrich? Bobby Jindial (LA)? John Kasich (OH)? Carly Fiorina (Hewlett Packard)? Michael Steele (MD)?
There's a darkhorse out there somewhere. Where?

Management Question #16

So I have a little dilemma here at the office. We have a local guy who lives out of his van that parks in our parking lot at night. He has a nice big van that he lives in and a small red car that he drives. Everyday at 6:00pm, he pulls into our parking lot and parks both vehicles near the back portion of our building. He is usually very good about moving both vehicles by 7:00am. But this morning his red car was still parked in our parking lot. So I ended up driving next to his van (parked right outside of our parking lot) and honked the horn for a little bit hoping that he would wake up. No go. So the question is do I go out there and knock on the van door and ask him to move his vehicle? I don't want him to think that I've become soft, but at the same time I don't want him to get pissed at us and then vandalize our building after hours.

My staff really doesn't care and actually feeds this guy from time to time, which pisses me off. The homeless are like seagulls. You feed them once and they swarm you and won't go away. My staff is very soft. During last Thanksgiving, another homeless man built an amazing cardboard house out by our dumpster. He completed it on Wednesday afternoon right before Thanksgiving, complete with a couple of matresses and a random couch. I was going to go out there to take it down, but my staff stopped me since it was right before Thanksgiving. I gave in then and allowed it to stay up until Monday, and now I'm probably the laughing stock of the homeless community.

So do I make a point and get his car towed this morning?

Aug 25, 2008

Aaaah! Too Much Information!


To kick off our convention coverage, I'd like to share what Bob Schieffer said in his closing remarks on "Face the Nation" this past Sunday.

Schieffer was reminiscing about covering conventions in the past, and he remarked that this would be "his 11th Democratic convention" that he covered - and he has also covered 10 Republican conventions so far.

"The first Democratic convention I covered was the convention in Chicago in 1968, which was memorable for me. It was memorable not because of the proceedings on the convention floor, but rather because 9 months after the day the convention started, my first daughter was born."

Aaah! Aaah! My ears! My eyes! The forced vision of Bob Schieffer having sex is quite a wake up call to my system.........next thing you know, Madeleine Albright will mention that August 28, 2008, is the 60th anniversary of the day she took a young Lloyd Bentsen behind the Capitol steps and (ed- this post has been terminated. )

Aug 20, 2008

Let's play veepstakes!

Today's game: the Democrats. Who will Obama pick as his VP choice?

Before we start, let's give some credit to McCain for finding a message that seems to be working. Tying Obama to random celebrities - Paris, Britney, etc. - is pure genius. It plays directly to the middle-aged white voter who still is unsure about Obama, and puts into words the hesitation. It also occured right after the time Obama was on his Europe trip and made a speech in Germany in front of 200,000 people.

One piece of advice my Dad gave me - if you want to attack something that seems unassailable, attack their strengths. Example: Burger King in the 80s. They wanted to attack McDonalds. How? They were the king - burgers fast and fresh. How do you attack them in an ad?

Answer: By attacking the fact they were fast. Why were they fast? Because they made the burger one way. You can't get it any other way. But what if you wanted a burger...your way? And a slogan was born.

McCain is doing exactly that. Obama is very popular - almost too popualr. He's attacking that image effectively. And (by chance!) where is Obama giving his acceptance speech next Thursday? Why, at Mile High Stadium in front of 75,000 people! This just adds to the celebrity/rock star label that McCain has given him. Obama has got to be careful not to provide more ammunition for that image.

Anyway, what is the end result of that ad campaign? An unquestioned tightening of the race - one poll shows McCain up 5 right now - and in the overall electoral vote count, McCain is seen to be ahead, 274-264.

There is no question that we are at the high point in McCain's campaign right now (so far?). All the toss up states are leaning McCain's way right now - Ohio, Virginia, Missouri, and so on. The good news for Obama is that it is very hard to see how Obama loses any more states. If Michigan and/or Pennsylvania start to turn to McCain, this thing could turn into a rout.

But for now, Obama should have a floor of 264 votes. The big question he needs to answer - given the current themes of the campaign and the current electoral map, can a VP pick influence either?

Some choices, with Eric's proposed odds:

1. Tim Kaine (VA): 10-1. Virginia's popular governor has been listed as a possibilitiy. Could this pick swing Virginia back to the Democrats? However - and I feel bad for saying this - I can't believe that America would elect a VP with that haircut. I'm sorry -some images do matter.

2. Joe Biden (DE): 4-1. Picking Biden would help close the "experience" issue Obama may have - Biden has 30+ years of experinece in the Senate and extensive foriegn policy credentials. However, he is the consummate Washington insider - would that hinder Obama's message of change?

One other thing - there was a presidential candidate that didn't have a lot of foreign policy items on his resume. He chose a VP who had a lot of congressional experience, various foreign policy responsibilities, and was seen as a sharp debater/good speaker.

It's not hard to draw parellels between Biden and Cheney.

3. Kathleen Sebelius (KS): 20-1. The chic rumor going around now - the Kansas governor would help with the female vote and would add to the "change" campaign them. And Sebelius is a conservative Democrat, and certainly can not be confused as a liberal. But would it deliver Kansas? The 5 electoral votes - with the current map - would make the election projected to be 269-269. (And, at this time, a tie goes to the House, which assuredly should remain Democratic).

And do we really know anything about her? What vetting is going on right now? A risky pick.

4. Dianne Feinstein (CA): 7-1. I'm surprised she's not talked about more often. The more moderate of the California senators, Feinstien has experience in Congress (16 years in the Senate) and has served on foreign policy committees, I think. She was a Clinton ally, so that may help mend some bridges. She is Jewish, but that issue should be put to rest given Lieberman's run in 2000 (and it may help in Florida). Not a bad pick.

5. Hillary Clinton (NY): 40-1. What, is Obama insane?

6. Evan Bayh (IN): 3-1. I think this is the smart pick. Bayh is the conservative senator from Indiana, and the Bayh name is powerful in that state. I would have to predict that the 11 electoral votes would swing toward Obama - meaning McCain would need another state to win. He has almost 10 years of experince in the Senate, and serves on the Armed Forces committee; he is 53 years old but looks younger, so can effectively look the part of "change".

7. The Field: 2-1. There's always a surprise lurking around the corner. As I was walking the dog, I tried to think about the last several VP picks and whether they were in the running for a VP and talked about before the announcement:

84: Ferraro: a complete surprise, and not a good choice. She did not deliver her home state.
88: Quayle (R): another complete surprise
88: Bentsen (D): I think he was mentioned on a short list as a possible balance for the northereastern Dukakis
92: Gore: yes, he was mentioned. Gore ran for President 4 years before!
96: Kemp: another surprise, not in name (since many knew him) but was not talked about as a VP candidate.
00: Cheney (R): medium surprise. He led the VP search committee - and then came back to Bush and said "nope, no qualified candidates out there....except moi!"
00: Liebermann (D): boy, it seems weird now putting a "D" next to his name! I think this was a small surprise.
04: Edwards: no surprise here.

So about half the time the pick comes out of left field.....will it happen again this week?

I say no - I say the pick is Evan Bayh. Your thoughts?

Aug 18, 2008

Seriously?!?!

Trampoline is a SPORT?

How does this make the Olympics and Softball is getting the axe?

This is stupid! Which Canadian was better? WHO CARES!

Aug 17, 2008

One more golf tournament

The last individual event for the 2008 season is upon us tomorrow. Don, Craig and I will be playing in the Cincinnati Met Mid-Am, the amateur championship for those 25 and older. Miraculously, I finished 4th last year.

Lines for tomorrow's first round action (the final 18 are on Tuesday):

Eric favored by 1 over Don
(this was a pickem until Saturday's head to head matchup)

Craig favored by 5.5 over Don

Craig favored by 4.5 over Eric

Three person special: Don, Craig and Eric's score:
Over / under set at 239.5

Results should be posted at gcga.org later in the day Monday.


And what else is tomorrow night? The Browns on Monday Night Football! I haven't posted too much on here about the Browns yet because I don't know what to say. I am nervously optimistic about this season. We are talented enough to go 11-5 or so, but if a couple of things go wrong, this could snowball into a 6-10 season.

We have so many games this year that I could see us winning or losing even if we play well:
- home vs Dallas
- both Pittsburgh games
- at Washington
- home vs NY Giants
- home vs Indianapolis
- at Tennessee
- at Jacskonville
- at Philadephia

and I don't think we are good enough (yet) to assume 4-0 vs Baltimore and Cincinnati.

Bottom line: check back with me on Sept 13. While the first game vs. Dallas is important - and I will be elated if we win and disappointed if we lose - the second game at home vs Pittsburgh is the big big big test.

If we win, expect 3 days of jubliant posts on this board.
If we lose, I will be distraught.

Aug 11, 2008

These posts will keep coming....

Until we agree that this blog will officially endorse John McCain as president.

First, we found out that John McCain is a avid craps player.

Now, we find out that ABBA and Neil Diamond make it into McCain's Top 10 Songs list.

Gees, people, what more do we need?

Aug 10, 2008

Sunday afternoon ramblings

Some random followups on golf and the olympics:

1. Finished third in the club championship. I thought I was in the lead after the first round until a 65-year old greenskeeper shot 72 after I left the clubhouse.
So I started 5 back, got to within 3, and then boarded the bogey train for a while and finished third.

The 65-year-old? He finished 9-6-9 on 16, 17, and 18 (par 4-4-5) and finished behind me. Tough, tough, tough to watch it all unfold. I was speechless.

2. Then played at the Ohio Publinx at Cook's Creek. The driver has been my worrisome club all year, so what do I do? I hit 11 of 14 fairways....and shoot 85. Could not hit any irons, and I was off with my pitches. The greens were rock hard, and I had trouble adjusting.

The 2nd round brought the complete opposite - through 11 holes, I hit 4 fairways, but made everything. I had 14 putts through 11 holes and was even for the round.

Then I had a block, leading to a triple - and then couldn't find a swing. Finished 8 over. Ugh. The problem: I have no reliable "pressure" swing anymore - the swing you need just to get the ball out there. I used to have this 230-yard gentle fade that I could atuomatically hit under any situation. Not anymore. Ugh.
The putting was phenomenal - the shortest putt I missed was a downhill 20 footer. Everything inside that was in the hole.

I'm taking a break for a week - to flush the system.

3. This golf pool that Layup and I are in, however - this is starting to be an unhelathy obsession. This pool requires you to pick a golfer for each tournament, and you can only pick a golfer once all season. Out of 120 or so people, Layup and I are 2nd at this point, a mere $1900 back of first.

I feel like a pastor of a Church - my off days are Monday; on Tuesday, it's reasearch day; Wednesday involves a 30-45 minute phone call with Layup as we argue over the pick - and then the tournament starts Thursday.

Our pick this week is Retief Goosen - and the leader (and the person directly behind us) has Phil. Entering the 4th round, Goosen is one back of Phil.

4. Go Ben! If Goosen can't win, let's see the boy from Ostrander win his second major.

5. Olympics fever is in this house now. Two pieces of evidence:

a. I actually had Freddie and Warren watching Women's basketball yesterday - Mali vs New Zealand! They chose to root for the Kiwis and were dancing around the room when they made a 3 pointer.

b. For the opening day of men's basketball, I entered in a 6-team teaser:
Russia
Spain
Croatia
Lithuania
Germany
USA

6-for-6! Winner!

Yes, I am insane.

Aug 3, 2008

No More She-manny-gans

I'll be the first to say it - I loved the Manny Era in Boston. He was there for 7 1/2 years, and was a huge part of two World Series teams. Sure, he quit on the team in 2002 and 2006 and did some quirky things, but he always entertained you. Some of my favorite Manny moments:

- jacking a home run and standing at home plate with his arms raised long enough for a bird to land on his helmet

- high fiving a fan after making a catch (and doubling a runner off)

- taking a leak in the Green Monster bathroom while the game was going on

- coming out of said Green Monster holding a sign that read Manny being Manny

- cutting off Johnny Damon's throw in CF (to the SS) from about 12 feet away

- Dropping a routine flyball then after saying "Oh well there goes my Gold Glove. I guess I'll have to go for the Silver or Bronze."

- Going out to left field with a water bottle in his back pocket

- Manny on Jay Leno talking about his slide in the World Series vs Colorodo. Manny is talking about the play (as they are cueing up the highlight to show on the screen), and he says "Oh I was definitely safe, no doubt about it, look here Jay, look here. (they show the play), Oh I guess I was out.

- While rehabbing in Pawtucket (where he spent almost a MONTH, seriously what big leaguer wants to spend a month in AAA????) he slid into third base and somehow lost a huge diamond earring. The players and umps were all looking for his earring. He told them to not worry about finding it, it was "only" a $25,000 diamond.

- Running on the bases and always flipping his helmet off as if once he discarded the helmet he would turn into Vince Coleman on the bases.

Now having said ALL THAT... they had to move him, it was time. Somehow, it went from quirky and silly, to just boorish and selfish. He was just different this year, knocking a 62 year old RS Employee to the ground, punching Youkilis in the dugout, were signs that things in Mannyland were stranger than ever. Once he sat out the two games (against King Felix and Joba), that was it. He was really pissed that the Red Sox wouldn't tell him whether they would pick up his option (for $20 mil) in 2009, so he was threatening to shut it down. I actually think the Sox did very well to get Jason Bay back for Manny and two guys who were very expendable. BTW, what were the Marlins thinking? They could have had Manny for free and they passed? Strange.

I am sure that Manny will have a strong second half for LA, and I am sure that the Red Sox will be better off without Manny. I am also sure I'll miss watching him play every day.

Is Layup faster or slower than this?

Found this classic on You Tube. No, it is not in slow motion.

Ah, memories.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jem453SaSpU