Election Thoughts

Back from vacation, and I've got a lot to blog about....but two quick things about last night's election:

1) Forget West Virginia. In a special congressional election in Mississippi (MS-01), the Republicans lost a seat to the Democrats. The incumbent Republican was appointed to fill Trent Lott's seat.

This district voted 60% for Bush in 2004 and reelected the Republican incumbent with over 60% in the last 4 congressional elections. And the Democrats won it last night.

2) This shocking exit poll result from West Virginia:

Obama only wins 53% of WV DEM PRIMARY VOTERS in a matchup with McCain.

This indicates major problems in the key appalachian states (Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia) that Obama must win.

It is not hard to imagine a scenario where:
- McCain is elected President on the strength of winning Florida, Ohio, PA, and the south (including TX), and
- McCain would have negative coattails - for instance, the Democrats gaining 40-50 seats in the House and 5-7 seats in the Senate.

These sort of special elections that occur 6-9 months before a Novmeber election usually do mean things. There were signs in 1994 (when the Republican revolution occurred) and 2006 (when the D's retook Congress). This loss in Mississippi does not bode well at all for the Republicans. The brand is shot - for many reasons. I will ponitificate on that in a future post.