NFL Week 17

Well, here we are at the end of another season! No time for a big write up as I got up late to make the predictions for this final week. Note - not a lot of thought went into these! I think this is the laziest set of picks I have made in a while...

Buf 24, Mia 13
GB 30, Det 20
Hou 24, Jax 16
NE 23, NYJ 17
NO 26, Car 13
NYG 24, Dal 10
TB 27, Atl 20
KC 27, Oak 17
Min 26, Chi 13
Pit 27, Cin 10
Phi 26, Was 16
LAC 28, Den 10
LAR 27, SF 17
Sea 29, Az 13
Ten 24, Ind 21

Best bets: Last week: 7-5-1; overall: 95-104-8
Buf -5
NYJ +14
NYJ/NE under 46.5
NO -7.5
NYG -7
TB +2.5
Oak +14
Oak/KC under 52.5
Min -6
Cin/Pit under 45
Phi -6
LAC -7
Ten +4.5

Supercontest picks: Last week: 1-4. First week that I have scored less than 2 points in 32 weeks....
Overall: 40-37-3

Buf -3.5
NYG -6.5
Min -4.5
Phi -6.5
Ten +3

NFL Week 16

An early Merry Christmas to everyone out there! Unfortunately, no time for a snappy theme for the picks. Here are the predictions and picks:

Ten 24, Was 10
LAC 24, Bal 17
Atl 27, Car 20
Dal 30, TB 17
Det 23, min 20
Ind 30, NYG 16
Mia 23, Jax 13
NE 23, Buf 10
GB 27, NYJ 24
Phi 27, Hou 20
LAR 23, Az 10
Chi 20, SF 13
NO 33, Pit 20
KC 34, Sea 31
Oak 27, Den 13

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 6-5-2; overall: 88-99-7
Atl -3
Dal -7
Det +6
Ind -9.5
Mia -3.5
Buf/NE under 44
Phi -2.5
LAR/AZ under 44
Chi -4.5
Chi/SF under 42
NO -6.5
KC/Sea over 55
Oak +3


Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 39-33-3
Dal -7.5
Det +5.5
Mia -4
NO -6
Oak +2.5

NFL Week 15: My 600 Lb. Life

Hello on a victory Saturday night! That's a nice win for the Browns over the Broncos, 17-16. We tried to give the game away at the end with the ill-fated timeout by Williams as Denver was jumping offsides on a 4th and 1 - but the defense saved us.

We got the 600 lb. monster off our back in beating Denver - we lost 11 straight to them going back to 1990; that year we were 3-13 (Bud Carson was fired) and somehow one of those wins was a Monday night game in Denver on Week 5. Jerry Kauric (anyone remember him?) kicked a game winning FG as time expired......here it is! Al Michaels and others!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=56vQgMtoU7o&t=138s

Wow. The names mentioned in this clip.... and a very dapper Dan Reeves....

We're still alive for a wild card … and the division! Rooting hard for the Pats, Bucs, Cowboys, Giants, and Vikings tomorrow. It is possible for us to be eliminated tomorrow.

Anyway, when I talk about 600 lb. monsters, your mind should go to one of TLC's most successful series - My 600 Pound Life!

Show: My 600 Lb. Life

Network: TLC

When: Thursday nights, plus random mornings

Stars: Dr. Younan Nowzaradan (Dr. Now)

Somehow, I got addicted to this show in the spring. The show is a 1 hour documentary of 12 months in the life of a grossly obese person and their journey to lose the weight. The starting weight of each patient is over 600 lbs. They all go and see the same doctor - Dr. Nowzaradan, a specialist in weight loss in Houston, TX.

There have been 6 seasons of the show- it first aired in February, 2012 as a mini series. The show was so popular that they decided to make it a full fledged series. The format of the show is pretty simple; we get introduced to the patient in question in "month 1" - we see how they live, some insight on diet and how they can and can't do routine activities (like bathe, cook, get to work). It can get graphic as we see them taking a shower with help, rub lotion all over their folds, etc.  In many cases, they have no idea how much they weigh.

At some point, they get an appointment with Dr. Now and head to the Houston office. This usually involves a long road trip of multiple hours, or in one case an ambulance ride from Dallas. Once they get to the office for their appointment, they get weighed - and the weigh in is always over 600 pounds. 600!

Dr. Now meets with them and puts them on a 1200 calorie/day diet full of protein and vegetables. He expects a 30 pound loss in the first month with the diet, and sternly talks to the patient. The patients all want stomach surgery to limit the appetite, but Dr. Now won't approve unless they make some progress with their weight.

The show can go in many directions from here. In some cases, the patient makes drastic changes in diet and exercise and achieves the weight loss; the surgery is seen and all is well. However,  in most cases, the patient can't get the 30 pound loss right away. They "try" to eat healthier but the environment gets in their way. This is when Dr. Now shows his asshole side - he will then start yelling at the patient hat they will die if they don't change. Stop enabling this person, he may say. No more fast food! he yells sometime.

In most cases, the weight loss is achieved eventually and surgery is approved; I've seen so many gastric surgeries on this show than I care to remember. The show ends at month 12, with mixed results - some are successful with a total weight loss of 200 pounds or more; others are flatlined.

There have been 70 episodes of the show, and only 4 patients have died. That's pretty amazing. And two of those were due to causes unrelated to weight!

I love Dr. Now. He starts with a very friendly demeanor (with his trademark "Hello!") but it's clear he has little patience for people that don't follow his directions. His blunt style is what these people (and their families) need to hear in order to save their lives.

I think we can equate Dr. Now with Gregg Williams as Williams tries to resurrect this franchise. Let's keep the momentum going - and the Steelers losses coming, too!

On to the games:

Atl 23, Arz 17. Boy oh boy, Atlanta is the walking dead here. They have given up - and a team that has given up should not be laying double digits.

Bal 27, TB 13. Can't see the Ravens losing focus here. An inconsistent Winston against this pass D? I expect the Ravens D to score 7-10 points by themselves.

Buf 20, Det 13. Still love the Bills (and their D) at home, regardless of last week's fluke vs. the Jets.

Chi 24, GB 17. Trubisky at home will move the ball enough to get the win here.

Oak 26, Cin 23. I think Oakland's pass offense - centered around Cook - will be able to move the ball easily against the Bengals. Over under on attendance here: 17,500.

Ind 30, Dal 20. Horrid spot for Dallas after 3 home games. The Colts are desperate and have the run D to contain Elliott and the Cowboys.

Jax 20, Was 10. Do I need to comment any more on this game? Kessler giving more than 7 - and it makes sense?

Min 27, Mia 20. I think the Vikings D is overrated and Miami will score enough to make it close. But the Miami D will let up plenty of yards.

Ten 24, NYG 20. The Giants have played well of late, but against who? Bucs, 49ers, Redskins? The Titans are a well coached team and will out-think Shurmur.

Sea 30, SF 20. The Seahawk train will keep rolling. I just can't see how the Niners keep pace here against the balanced Seattle attack.

NE 30, Pit 27. The Pats have the Steelers number. Both teams are desperate - have to go with the better coach here.

LAR 31, Phi 17. Is Foles that much of a downgrade from Wentz? Probably not. However, the Rams will come out and run right over the Eagles and establish dominance.

Car 27, NO 24. It's a confluence of factors - home Monday night underdog, plus this is the Saints' 3rd road game in a row. I know Cam has sucked, but can't go against those factors.

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 6-7; overall: 82-94-5
Az +10
Bal -8
TB/Bal under 46.5
Buf -2.5
Buf/Det under 40
Oak +3
Oak/Cin over 45.5
Ind -3
Ten -1
Sea -3.5
Sea/SF over 44
Phi/LAR under 52
Car +6.5

Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 36-31-3
Bal -7.5
Buf -2.5
Ten +2.5
Sea -4.5
Car +6.5

NFL Week 14: Hoarders

Back to the themed picks this week ! Today, we look at one of the standard bedrocks for A&E that opened America's eyes to a new disease - hoarding!

Show: Hoarders

Network: A&E

Time: Weekend mornings

Stars: No regular stars during the series

Ah yes, Hoarders! A look at the inside lives of people that can't get rid of anything and just collect, collect, collect for multiple decades. It's not really a humorous show - it's mostly educational to show how deep in denial (or mentally sick) some of the hoarders really are.

The hour long show focuses on two separate people whose extreme hoarding is at a point to cause massive issues in their life. Usually, it's at a point where the person will lose their kids or will be evicted unless the house is cleaned up. Family members call for help and the A&E comes out to start taping!

The first 20, 30 minutes of the show gives an overview of the current situation - pictures of the living room, bedroom, kitchen - and some background on why this may have happened. The house usually is piled from floor to ceiling with stuff - clothes, collectibles, VCR tapes, etc. There's no room to sit down anywhere in the house, or to walk anywhere - paths over stuff are created to move around. There are no open counter spaces in the kitchens; it's been years since anyone actually have cooked in the kitchen. Sleeping arrangements are sometimes a sheet on a couch or a mattress in a corner of a common room. The saddest cases are when kids are involved and we see their rooms.

A therapist is introduced to talk to the hoarder, to understand the background behind it, and to try to convince the hoarder to move forward with cleaning. The therapist then leads the cleaning process - a professional team comes to help clean out the house (think of 1 800 GOT JUNK) and the team - including family members - try to throw stuff out.

That's when the fun and conflicts begin. The second half of the show usually is about the fights the hoarder has with the family members about what to throw out - beanie babies, clothes, canned goods, cassettes, lamps, etc. It's fascinating to see what people can really get attached to. However, I can understand a bit of it - in our office closet at home, I have my NFL betting notebooks and Vegas notebooks from 2006-on. If anyone asked me to throw those out, I'd be pissed and throw a tantrum.

The endings are not always happy; a lot of episodes end with the process about 75% done since they couldn't make enough process in time for an inspection. We really don't get the follow up story 6 months later to see if the changes that were made lasts, or if the hoarder when right back to fill up the now-cleaned house. I think the show intended to focus more on the psychiatric side of hoarding instead of the "before and after" picture of the clean up.

The show started on A&E in 2009; some of you may be asking "well, who would actually watch this show?" According to Wikipedia, Hoarders was the most-watched premier of any show on A&E, watched by 2.5 million people. It went 9 seasons and ended in 2017.

The one complaint I have about the show is that it seems like perfect fare for late-night TV. It's not a show for the mornings for people with weak stomachs; I don't like seeing maggots in warm fridges while eating my scrambled eggs at 9 am. Put this on at 10 pm!

Anyway - to segue to the Browns, we need to start Hoarding wins immediately. The last 4 games are winnable - Carolina, at Denver, Cincy, and at Baltimore. Is a wild card possible at 8-7-1? No, probably not, but it's great to talk about this again in December.

And I need to start hoarding wins for my picks, especially the Supercontest picks. I think I need to go about 16-4 for the last 4 weeks to have an outside chance at the money. It's not over, but I need a 5-0 or 4-1 week really quick.

To the games:

Buf 24, NYJ 13.  I will continue to sing the praises of Buffalo at home, and Josh Allen is not quitting. Neither are the Bills coaches. The Jets? They had their last hurrah last week.

GB 27, Atl 20. Betting on a bounce back for the Pack after McCarthy was let go. How much conflict was there between McCarthy and Rodgers? We'll find out at 1 pm today.

Hou 30, Ind 20. I don't see the Colts as the team to stop the Texans' juggernaut. They are playing well, especially at home.

KC 27, Bal 23. The Chiefs have the worst run D in the league - and Baltimore has Lamar. Is that enough? Fascinating to see the Ravens' O game plan here.

NE 26, Mia 17. No real clue here. I know the Pats don't play well in Miami, but they should be able to move the ball ok, right?

NO 30, TB 27.  A game the Saints usually have trouble with; the back door will be wide open here for the Bucs.

NYG 24, Was 17. Not sure how the Skins recover from Monday night. Sanchez is so ineffective, and the weapons just aren't there on offense due to injuries.

LAC 27, Cin 20. Anyone seen the Chargers schedule? Emotional game in Pitt last Sunday; Thu night coming up they face the Chiefs. A perfect spot for a let down here.

Den 24, SF 17. Maybe Kyle isn't as good as I give him credit for. The team is playing worse and worse each week.

Dal 23, Phi 17.  I just don't see how the Eagles win this. They are not good - and only won on Monday because of McCoy's injury. Dallas continues their roll.

Az 26, Det 20. The Cardinals are another team that don't seem to have given up yet; Rosen still is learning and trying to show his talent. Detroit lost 3 home games in a row and now go on the road.

Pit 30, Oak 24. I've given up trying to figure out the Steelers this year. And Oakland should be able to move the ball vs. the mediocre pass D for the Steelers.

LAR 27, Chi 24. Lot of sharps are picking the Bears here. I don't see it; don't like Trubisky against a good D like the Rams.

Sea 27, Min 17. Riding the Seahawk train, especially at home. Can't back Kirk Cousins on the road, in Seattle, Monday night, in a game Seattle has to win.

Best bets:  13 of them. Last week: 7-5; overall: 76-87-5.
Buf -4
GB -4
Hou -4
NE/Mia under 48.5
TB +10
NYG -3
Cin +15
Den -3.5
Az +3
Det/Az over 40.5
Dal -3
Oak +10
Sea -3

Supercontest picks: last week: 3-2; overall: 33-29-3
Buf -3
GB -5.5
Cin +14
Az +2.5
Sea -3.5

NFL Week 13 Picks

Sorry - no time for a themed write up this week. My predictions for the games for week 13:

Bal 23, Atl 20
Den 24, Cin 13
LAR 34, Det 26
GB 31, Az 17
Ind 24, Jax 17
Mia 27, Buf 17
Chi 24, NYG 20
KC 31, Oak 17
Ten 23, NYJ 20
NE 31, Min 20
Sea 30, SF 16
Pit 31, LAC 24
Was 23, Phi 20

Best bets; Last week: 3-8; overall: 69-82-5
Bal +2.5
Den -4.5
Den/Cin under 44.5
LAR/Det over 53.5
GB/Az over 41
Mia -3.5
Car/TB over 52.5
NYJ +10
NE -5
Sea -10
Pit -3
Was +6

Supercontest picks: last week: 2-3; overall: 30-27-3
Den -4.5
Mia -4.5
NYJ +7.5
NE -5
Was +6

NFL Week 12: Bar Rescue

For this week's show to review, we look at Bar Rescue! This seems to be one of the 4 shows that the Paramount network has on its regular rotation, so it is almost always on - and I am still seeing episodes that I haven't watched come up!

Name: Bar Rescue

Starring: Jon Taffer

Network: Paramount Network

Time: Sunday nights, almost every weekday morning

Bar Rescue is one of those "makeover" programs, focusing on struggling bars. It's hard for me to believe that this show has been around for 6 years - and over 170 episodes in the vault. They are still filming episodes, as there are new ones being broadcast at 10 pm on Sundays. 

Basically, struggling bar owners write in to Jon Taffer asking him to help save their bar; they are usually in debt over 6 figures (sometimes up to a million) and need Taffer's help to see what is wrong. The Bar Rescue team then installs hidden cameras in the bar to collect info for a few weeks on the operation of the bar. 

Each episode is usually the same; the episode opens with Taffer and his team sitting in a car outside the bar watching the operation. Sometimes they will send spies in to order drinks and food to see how they are treated. This is where we learn that the owner is lazy, and drunk; the bartenders don't know basic drinks; security is lax, and the food is gross. 

At some point, Taffer says "I've had enough - I'm heading in" as he leaves his car to confront the owner. Then he goes on a yelling rampage with his observations - yes, always yelling - to get his point across. Then we go to a commercial break. 

After the break, it's the next morning with a staff meeting, and Taffer leads it, and is much calmer; the focus usually is on one part of the operation - the kitchen, the raccoons in the bar, the sexual harassment, etc. By the middle of the episode, personnel decisions have to be made- do we want to fire one of the offending personnel?

They do some training and then a "stress test" - where Taffer fills up the bar with customers to see how the bar will operate at full capacity. This is always a mess. No one can keep up with drinks, and bartenders screw up again, and Taffer keeps yelling. Now that they now the specific weak areas, more training is given and Taffer and his team makes renovations to the bar.

The episode ends with the unveiling of the changes and another soft opening, where the customers are now happily served and everything works well. Taffer leaves, saying "my work is done here". 

Yes, it's formulaic - but we learn so much about the industry. It's amazing to me how many of the owners just buy bars as their own personal party place- finances be damned. The kitchens are usually a mess - and makes me think twice about ordering bar food in a dark joint again. And maybe I do like whiskey drinks - they've just been made by idiots so they taste bad!

Well, after last week's picks, I think I need Taffer to come into the blog and rescue my selection process. What a bloodbath last week. It's a miracle I went 3-2 in the Supercontest. I think I got every other pick wrong in my "best bets" section. Ugh. 

It can't get much worse this week - can it? On to the previews:

Bal 24, Oak 10. Don't see how Oakland will move the ball much against this defense. Another start for Lamar to see how he does.

Buf 16, Jax 13. I firmly believe Buffalo is an average home team, especially with Barkley, and Jacksonville has now checked out after last week's choke.

Car 27, Sea 20. Seattle can't keep giving 100% week after week. They are due a letdown at some point- and Carolina can't afford to lose this. 

NE 27, NYJ 17. What to say? I still don't know how good or average the Patriots are. 

Phi 31, NYG 24. How do we evaluate the Eagles now? Is Wentz really all that good? Are the Giants surging? Should be an interesting game.

SF 31, TB 27. I like this Niners team, and Shanahan the coach will demolish this bad Bucs D.

LAC 24, Az 10. Something is off with the Chargers - they can't finish drives, they can't get the big stop....Arizona won't take advantage, but this won't be a blowout.

Ind 31, Mia 20. Love the way the Colts are playing now, especially at home. Not sure how the Dolphins stop Indy.

Pit 27, Den 20. Pit had their wake up call last week and will come out firing against the Broncos D. They should be able to stop Keenum as well.

Min 30, GB 20. This is it for the Pack. The divorce between McCarthy and Rodgers is coming -and they may have already checked out. 

Hou 23, Ten 16. Hou's run D will be too much for the Titans attack. 

Best bets: 11 of them. Last week: 3-9-1; overall: 66-74-5

Oak/Bal under 42.5

Buf +3

Buf/Jax under 37.5

Car -3

NYG/Phi over 48

SF +2

Az/LAC under 43.5

Ind -8

Pit -3

Min -3

Hou -4

Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 28-24-3

Buf +3

Car -3.5

SF +3.5

Pit -3

Min -3.5

NFL Week 11: Barefoot Contessa

The Browns have a bye after a great win at home vs. Atlanta. Our record is now 3-6-1, and one hates to second-guess games over the past 10 weeks that could have gone our way. Specifically:
- looking back, how did we lose to Oakland? How did Oakland score 45 against us?
- that Tampa game - and the 59 yard kick by Canizaro - was a complete farce. We had no business losing that game
- and then there was the Saints game - now it's shocking we only lost by 3 to them on the road! And we could have easily won that with an average kicker.

So we realistically could be 6-3-1, and leading the wild card chase in the AFC. Argh. So frustrating. At least one of our issues has been removed (Hue).

Anyway, it's time to take a breath, sit back and relax this week and watch other teams flail. And there's one show on that I watch that is "feel-good" TV - sit back, watch, and get a smile on my face. I'm a sap for Ina Garten and the Barefoot Contessa.

Show: The Barefoot Contessa

Network: Food Network

Time: Weekends, around 8:30 am

Starts: Ina Garten, Jeffrey Garten

What else to say? I enjoy watching Ina cook as she gets ready for her dinner parties. Each show usaually is about a dinner party she is preparing for her friends in the Hamptons on Long Island. How will she make a fancy feast for 6-8 in just a few hours with minimal to no work? It's easy!

Ina takes the viewers on that journey, starting from the items as bought - from a butcher, fish market, or vegetable stand- usually asking the vendor to prep it in some way for ease. ("I asked to butcher to tie this roast for me - so easy, and it saves time"). Then she whips together some sauce or marinade for the meat - can be done in 30 seconds or so - places it on the meat, and voila! "Put in the oven for 60 minutes.

How easy is that?

She repeats for a vegetable and a side - dishes that seem like they need 45 seconds to prepare, if you have everything pre-measured and cut from the store - and there you go! An elegant dinner party in just 5 minutes!

Ina got her start in cooking after marrying Jeffrey in 1968; he was in the military and they were stationed in France; he started to learn cooking methods over there and was enthralled by all the food markets in France. They came back to the US and Ina worked - can you believe this - in the Office of Management and Budget under Ford and Carter.

She quit the government work in the 70s and focused on working full time in cooking; she bought a store called "Barefoot Contessa" and owned that for 20 years. She then went into publishing cookbooks in the late 90s and was a complete surprise hit. I think I bought 3 of these cookbooks for Janice as Christmas gifts in the early 2000s.

She was approached for a show for the Food Network in 2002 - and she turned it down multiple times before finally agreeing; it was the top rated show on the Network for years. It played constantly on the Asia satellite channel when we were in Guangzhou; Janice and I would watch marathons when we were bored.

So that's my comfort food on this bye weekend. Settle down and watch Ina cook a banquet for 8 in 11 minutes flat. About as fast as Nick Chubb's time to run 92 yards against the swiss chees Atlanta defense!

To the picks:

Atl 34, Dal 23. Talking about the Falcons, they are a different team at home and I don't see Dallas outscoring them. I know Zeke may have 200+ yards.....Julio will have 200 of his own.

Bal 30, Cin 17. I think the Bengals are done. Very interesting to see what Jackson can do for the Ravens today.

Car 31, Det 27. A sneaky hard game for the Panthers. They struggle on the road and Detroit will put up points at home. The Lions could actually sneak this one out.

Ind 27, Ten 20. Playing the home teams big this week. Tennessee is coming off their emotional win vs. the Pats, and the Colts offense looks very good. The Colts will do just enough on D to win.

NYG 24, TB 20. I can't talk rationally about the Bucs anymore. They should score 35 every game but a comedy of errors each week prevents them from doing that. They are the Browns of the NFC.

Hou 23, Was 20. No real clue here. I just think Hou's run D will force the Skins to pass more than they want, and they just don't have the weapons in the passing game.

Pit 27, Jax 20. Waiting for the annual Pittsburgh road misstep vs. an inferior opponent. This could be the time. Jax's offense looked competent in the second half last week.

Az 23, Oak 13. What to say about the Raiders any more? Not sure how they get more than 13 against a pretty good defense on the road. I like Rosen to move the ball here.

LAC 24, Den 20. The Chargers can be stopped by good defenses, and Denver has an OK defense. he Chargers won't run away with this one.

NO 34, Phi 31. This is the final stand for Philly; I think they will move the ball in the air against the weak Saints pass D. The Saints will do just enough to win.

Chi 23, Min 21. Not the biggest fan of the 1-dimensional Vikes offense - no running game yet - and that plays into the Bears' hands. And the Bears are a much better offensive team at home.

KC 33, LAR 30. Just a hunch; the Rams have not been playing excellent football recently, especially defensively, and the injury of Cupp is big.

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 6-5-1; overall: 63-65-4
Sea -2.5 (Winner! Had this for the Supercontest too!)
Atl -3
Dal/Atl over 49.5
Bal -5.5
Ind -1.5
Car/Det over 49.5
TB/NYG under 53
AZ -5
Oak/Az under 41
Den +7
Phi +7.5
Phi/NO over 56
KC +3.5

Supercontest picks: last week: 2-2-1; overall: 25-22-3
Sea -2.5 (winner!)
Atl -3.5
Ind -2
Phi +8.5
KC +3.5

NFL Week 10: Cheaters

Cheaters! Ah yes, the pinnacle of reality TV. I was on the couch most of Saturday morning (yesterday) and watched a 3 hour marathon - surprisingly satisfying! It's like a bite size Halloween candy - fun, short, easy to enjoy and you don't feel guilty for having more than one!

Show: Cheaters

Network: VH1

When: Saturday mornings, 6am - 2 pm

Main Characters: Joey Greco, Clark Gable

Where to start? I remember this show when it first came out in 2000. Oooh boy, Janice hated when I watched this show on Saturday nights before we went out or something. (That was before kids and we actually went out.) It's still on the air after all these years!

The show Cheaters is produced by the Cheaters Detective Agency, who tries to get video evidence that a partner is cheating. The partner that is concerned comes to the agency with their story - "my lover is now distant and working a lot! - and asks for help to see if their partner is actually cheating.

The Detective Agency then stakes out the suspect - at home, at work, other places, and gets video evidence of any canoodling. Could be video of picking up a new girl on the way home from work, going to an apartment when the suspect is supposedly visiting family, etc. The video usually shows some kissing and hugging and nothing too graphic. (Although one episode yesterday involved footage from cameras inside a house and they captured a sex scene).

With indisputable evidence that the suspect is cheating, the Cheaters Detective Agency then takes the footage to the client to show her/him. This is a complete surprise to the client! Lots of tears and ranting. Then the big question:

"Our agents know the suspect is with the third party right now. Do you want to go and confront the suspect ?"

Of course, the answer is yes-  and the final part of the show begins - the Confrontation!

The confrontation involves 10-12 staffers of the agency (cameramen, soundmen) with the host of the show and the client. The client usually comes flying in and starting flailing at the suspect - "How could you? Who the hell is this slut?" as the suspect is completely blindsided. Our hosts tries to act like John Chancellor and get the suspect's side of the story in a calm manner -but that's not going to happen.

Sometimes there's violence- there was one show where Joey the host apparently got stabbed, but others claim that was made up. Making up scenes for TV? I've never heard of that.

Episodes usually end with the client saying "I never want to see you again!!!!" The last bit of the sow is the epilogue - after a few days, does the client really mean that? It's about 50/50 if the client gets back together with the suspect for "one more chance" or if they cut ties for good.

It's all packaged together in a neat 30 minute show - predictable, entertaining, and sometimes fakily violent! What else do you want in a reality show? Oh yes- the hosts! I always associated Joey Greco with this show - he was the host for 11 years up until 2013 - and then a stranger named Clark Gable became the host. I asked myself "What kind of idiot would make that up as a stage name?? Why would you do that to yourself?" However, in actuality, the Cheaters Clark Gable is the actual grandson of the real Clark Gable! Who knew?

I fell like a Cheaters client every time I go to a Browns game in Cleveland - I love this team, this is the week they will do well.....and of course, the video tape and the game shows a massive disappointment. We head to the parking lot and the 4+ hour drive back - and I ask myself each time... "Why do I do this? It's not worth it. I'm not doing it again"...

And here we are, a few days later, as I act like the jilted client - "well, he's not that bad. I'll give him another chance. What's the home schedule for 2019?"

On to the games...

Chi 27, Det 17. Trubisky is a fine QB at home - and the problems of the Lions OL will show up again here.

NO 30, Cin 23. Did you enjoy the Dez Bryant Saints era? Can see both teams moving the ball here, and a big game by Joe Mixon.

Jax 23, Ind 17. Let's not go crazy on the Colts. Their last two games - which were wins - were against Oakland and the Bills. The Jags will put up some defense here.

KC 27, Az 10. Classic Milton Berle game for the Chiefs here. They will only do what's needed to win. The Az defense will actually force them to punt a few times (unlike Cleveland last week).

NYJ 24, Buf 17. McCown is still younger than Brady - how about that? And Barkley will score some points for the Bills -it can't get any worse, right?

TB 30, Was 20. Just too many injuries for Washington here. The Bucs should get some pressure on Smith and I can't see the Skins surviving in a high scoring game.

NE 27, Ten 17. Just don't see the Titans getting over 20 points here, and the Pats will be able too. I know it's Vrabel vs. his old team - just don't see the firepower.

LAC 26, Oak 23. Look, the Chargers haven't been home since week 5. It's week 10 now. They have played at Cle, in London, a bye, at Seattle, and now another road game. It has to catch up to them.

GB 31, Mia 24. No idea here. Still hate the Packers D which will allow a Miami backdoor possible.

LAR 30, Sea 24. There are significant holes in the Rams defense that a good offense will exploit. We saw that with the Packers and Saints. The Hawks aren't at that level, but close.

Dal 23, Phi 21. OK, everyone, let's slow down on Philly. Philly still has problems on the offensive side and Dallas has a decent D. And Zeke should gain lots of yards against Phi's run D.

NYG 24, SF 23. Who knows. I'm betting that Mullins can't make back to back points here.

Best bets: 12 of them. Last week: 6-6; overall: 57-60-3
Chi -7
Jax +3
Jax/Ind under 47
Az/KC under 49.5
Buf/NYJ over 36.5
TB -3
NE -6.5
Oak +10
Mia/GB over 47.5
Sea/LAR over 50
Dal +7.5
NYG +3.5

Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 23-20-2
Chi -6.5
Jax +3
TB -3
Oak +9.5
Dal +6.5

NFL Week 9

Sorry - no write up of a key show this week as we are getting on the road to Cleveland for the game today! My predictions:

Bal 24, Pit 17
Atl 27, Was 24
NYJ 23, Mia 20
Min 31, Det 24
Chi 20, Buf 10
Car 30, TB 20
Sea 29, LAC 23
Hou 24, Den 23
NO 31, LAR 28
NE 34, GB 28
Dal 20, Ten 17

Best bets: 12 of them. last week: 5-7, overall: 51-54-3

Bal -2.5
Bal/Pit under 47
Atl +2
NYJ +3
Det/Min over 48.5
Chi/Buf under 37.5
Car -6.5
Sea pk
Hou +1
NO +2
GB/NE over 56
Ten +4

Supercontest picks: Last week: 2-3, overall 20-18-2
Bal -3
NYJ +3
Hou +1
NO -1.5
Ten +6.5

NFL Week 8: Law And Order

For those of you who have been following my twitter account, I re-tweeted another apology from the NFL on a key call that went against the Browns. Last week (against the Bucs) was the head to head hit against Baker; a flag was thrown but then ultimately picked up after a lengthy discussion. Head referee Shaun Hochuli (yes, Ed's son) said that since Bake was a runner, he was not protected and head to head hits on him were legal.

Um, what?

The NFL had to issue an apology this week on this incorrect call and explanation. This is getting old. We had the false start non-call vs. the Chargers (a call that led to the Line Judge getting fired, mid-season, a first for the NFL in 50 years) and the Derek Carr strip that was ruled down in the Oakland game.

How do all these obvious calls go against us all the time?  There's a big issue with the Law in the NFL. I think we need Sam Waterson and Benjamin Bratt to be a lead ref for the NFL now....

Show: Law and Order

Network: Too Many to count

When: 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, on various channels

Main Characters: So many....Benjamin Stone, Adam Schiff, Jack McCoy, Abbie Carmichael, Lennie Brisco, Anita Van Buren, …

With my whining about the NFL Refs complete, there's no better week to review the Law and Order franchise! I won't go into the details of the show here - everyone should know it by now. In February, when I was in bed for 21 hours of the day, I could always count on some Law and Order show to be on at any point in time. It seems there are at least 8 cable networks that show re-runs of L&O:

- TNT
- Lifetime
- ID
- Paramount
- Sundance
- FYI

and maybe some others.

Try this for a gambling game when you are at home with your friends: at any moment, wager if there is a L&O show on cable at the moment. You'd win 80% of the time, I believe. It's 7:25 am on a Sunday morning right now - and yep! There it is! L&O on Sundance!

Here are some fun facts about L&O that I'll share with you, since we all know the plot and structure of the show:

- The original debuted in September, 1990. That's 28 years ago! That's crazy. I'm so old.
- L&O-SVU almost has as many episodes as the original! The original L&O has 456 episodes; SVU has 436. One more season for Ice-T and his franchise will take the lead!

- My personal favorite police character: Jerry Orbach. Did you know he was a broadway star in the 60s and 70s? I happened to hear him sing "Promises, Promises" on Sirius - what a voice! He was also the first person to sing the famous song "Try to Remember" on stage in the musical "The Fantastiks".
- Jerry was also on Super Password! I will have to find that episode on You Tube.

(and here it is! What a pairing for the guest stars...….whatever happened to her?)

- A close second for best Police character is S. Epatha Merkerson. She was on the show for 17 seasons - 395 episodes - longer than any other character. However, what was her first TV role? S. Epatha was first on TV as …….Reba the Mail Lady on Pee-Wee's Playhouse. Incredible.

- And I have a soft spot for the prosecutor Michael Moriarty. He was the first DA under Adam Schiff to start the series. Michael is an interesting character. He left the show after 4 years in 1994...he was suing Atty. General Janet Reno for comments she made about shows being violent. Moriarty said that Reno wanted to take not only L&O off the air, but also......Murder, She Wrote. Anyone who thinks someone is out to get Angela Lansbury has got to get an honorable mention here in the blog...

...oh yes, he announced in 2005 that he was running for president in 2008! I wonder what happened to that campaign.

OK, enough reminiscing. On to the games....

Phi 20, Jax 16.  We all talk about how Bortles can't run the Jags' offense, but the Eagles are struggling too. They are incapable of putting up a 30 spot. This may be closer than we think.

Bal 27, Car 17.  I continue to believer Carolina is a fraud, and it will show up here. Bal's defense will travel and they are pissed after losing last week.

Chi 27, NYJ 16. The Bears are a much better home team than on the road, and should be able to stop the Jets' running attack.

Cin 31, TB 24. Tampa is one-dimensional, and the Bengals should contain the Bucs' passing attack; Dalton should move the ball with ease to score 30+ points.

Sea 27, Det 24. Seattle's D is starting to get better and the bye helps; Detroit is giving up lots of points, 21 to Brock and Miami and should have lost to Green Bay (a very similar team to Seattle).

KC 31, Den 20. What to say about this? KC is unstoppable, and will score in the 30s; we saw this game before, and Denver threw everything at them and couldn't win.

NYG 24, Was 16. Washington has just won 2 games in a row at home; I don't see them winning 3. Barkley should get 100+ yards and the Giants will get their second win.

Ind 23, Oak 16. Got to see how the bye week helped/hurt the Raiders. I'm not convinced their offense is dead now that Cooper is gone- Cook will more than make up for it.

Az 20, SF 17. Maybe the Niners did leave everything on the field at Lambeau. 10 days for the Cardinals to prepare?

LAR 34, GB 23. The back door will be in play here - but the Rams D will contain the Packers' 1 dimensional offense. The Packers D is in dire straits.

NO 27, Min 24. What a great SNF game. I just think Minny's D is not quite good enough to stop the Saints, and the Saints have revenge on their mind.

NE 24, Buf 17. Let's be clear - Buffalo is not a bad home team, and their D is actually fairly decent. I think they contain the Pats somewhat and Derek Anderson will somehow get 17 points.

Best bets: 12 of them. Last week: 6-6; overall: 46-47-3
Phi/Jax under 44
Bal -2.5
Chi -9.5
Cin -3.5
Sea +3
Sea/Det over 48.5
NYG +1
Ind -3
Ind/Oak under 51
Az +1.5
LAR -8
Buf +14

Supercontest picks: Last week: 2-3; overall: 18-15-2
Bal -2
Chi -7
Sea +3
NYG pk
Buf +13.5

NFL Week 7: Diners, Drive-ins and Dives

Predictability. That's what I would like the most out of my NFL team. I want to know what I am getting each week. If a team, such as - oh, the 2018 Cleveland Browns - is rated #2 in total defense, then let's get that effort week in and week out! But no. We get the 45 point affair at Oakland (which, to be fair, was inflated due to turnovers) and then the 38 point giveaway last week vs. the Chargers. I know, the Chargers may be good, but so are the Saints - and look what we did to them!

The same applies when I was (and am) trying to veg out in front of the TV. Sometimes I want to watch something predictable, formulaic, and warm...… And the perfect person and show that defines all 3 is....Triple D!

Show: Diners, Drive Ins and Dives

Network: Food Network

Star: Guy Fieri

Times: Various, but usually they have Friday evening/night marathons from 3 pm - midnight

Yes, I know it's fashionable to make fun of Guy Fieri as not a "real" chef. That's fine. But he is entertaining (for a while) and this show is the perfect filler for those nights when you are waiting for your sons to come home from work or a movie night that should have ended at 10:30 but now it's 11:30 and the parents of the host haven't kicked the kids out yet....

OK, enough editorializing. Guy was born in Columbus, OH - I did not know that! - but ended up on the West Coast as a kid. He went to UNLV to major in restaurant management, and quickly rose in the SoCal dining scene. He won a contest on the Food Network for "The Next Food Network Star" in 2006 and Triple D was born in April, 2007.

There's been 26 (!) seasons of the show and 260 episodes. You all know how this goes. In 30 minutes, Guy visits 2-3 out-of-the-way, local restaurants featuring good food. The pattern of the segment goes like this:

- Guy drives up to the restaurant in his trademark red convertible
- Montages of diners eating there are interviewed - "Oh, this place is soooo good!"
- We meet the head chef
- The head chef prepares 1 or 2 of his signature dishes
- Guy watches and provides humor and puns while the chef cooks
- Guy sticks his finger in the bowl and licks it while still cooking
- Dish is finished, Guy samples it in the kitchen. "Off the hook!" "Wow!" "Speechless!"

I haven't seen an episode yet where Guy is indifferent to the food. There had to be a SNL skit of DDD where Guy tries the food and says "Meh. There's better food down the street".

Guy and Triple D has done an episode with Blue Ash Chili here in Cincinnati; it's a Cincinnati chili place that serves alcohol. For those of you not in SW Ohio, you have to try Cincinnati chili just once. Should have fed it to Leland when he visited in February.

Triple D has also gone to a Pho place downtown; that's now on my list of places to try. Pho Lang Tang is supposedly the best in town. I have loved Pho ever since I went to Saigon in 2012.

No writeup of Guy Fieri would be complete without a comment about his restaurant he opened up in 2012 in Times Square; the New York Times reviewed it, and the review was called "the most scathing review in the history of the NYT". Something tells me Guy was not going for the Upper West Side audience.

OK, let's get an off the hook review this week and have our defense show up against the Bucs. If they do, we will win and get back to .500 after 7 games.

On to these games:

Arz 23, Den 16. I think Denver's defense is overrated and I don't trust Keenum on the road. I see the Cards rallying at home in prime time....what?

LAC 23, Ten 20. I really like Vrabel. He is doing a lot with nothing. This is the kind of team that the Chargers always slip up against. I don't see Lynn matching wits with Vrable. Look for lots of fakes.

NE 26, Chi 20.  Really disappointed in the Bears D last week vs the Dolphins. If the Pats can protect Brady a bit, they should be able to move the ball and pull out a win.

Ind 27, Buf 20. Our good friend Derek Anderson is back! I have no faith in the Colts D to stop him, and I like the Colts O too much here.

Jax 27, Hou 13. This is it. The Jags have too much talent to be messing around. They need to stop the Texans D, and being at home, Bortles will play well and move the ball through the air.

Mia 27, Det 24. Not sure if Detroit's D can shut down Brock. It is possible, however, that Brock will shoot himself in the foot. Look for a shooutout here.

Min 23, NYJ 20. Boy, the Jets play well at home, and could take advantage of the Vikes' poor pass D. Do I trust Cousins on the road? Not really....

Phi 30, Car 27. I have stated here numerous times that the Panthers D is awful. Philly should move the ball with ease. However, I don't think the Eagles are back to full effectiveness yet on D.

Bal 24, NO 23. I'll pass on wagering on this game and just watch. Is the Ravens D really that good? Can the Ravens score enough to win against a good offensive team?

Was 23, Dal 20. Let's not get carried away with the Cowboys just yet. Got a nice spot last week. The Cowboys are a weaker version of the Panthers on O, and the Skins stopped them last week.

LAR 27, SF 23. I think the MNF loss will strengthen the NIners, and this is the Rams' 3rd road game in a row. I see a close game here.

KC 31, Cin 20. KC was clearly nervous under the lights at NE last week in the first half; those jitters will be gone this week and I see a blow out.

Atl 30, NYG 20. I don't know. I feel the Giants have one more good game in them here, but Atlanta is just as desperate and can score pretty much at will.

Best bets: 12 of them. Last week: 7-5-1; overall: 40-41-3
Arz +1.5 (L)
Ten +6.5
NE -2
Jax -3.5
Mia +3
Det/Mia over 46.5
Car/Phi over 45
Was +1
SF +9
KC -6
Cin/KC under 57.5
Atl -4

Supercontest: Last week: 3-2; overall: 16-12-2
Arz +1.5 (L)
Ten +6.5
Jax -5
Was -2
SF +9.5

NFL Week 6: Dog the Bounty Hunter

We did it! A division win! I can't believe we went two full years without a division win. That's just pathetic. There were years where I would realistically hope for a 3-3 or 2-4 record in the division - and get it. Now? A win against the Ravens is a reason to have a big celebration. (And I think the Ravens are pretty damn good!). We must have gotten serious and hired someone to go search out and capture our first win …. someone like....a Bounty Hunter!

Show: Dog the Bounty Hunter

Network: A&E

Times: Weekdays, 8-10 am 

Main Characters: Dog, Beth, Leland, Tim, Duane, Baby Lyssa

This is a show that has filled a lot of my mornings in the spring and summer. A&E had this on as a staple starting at 8 am every weekday. I'd get Martin on the bus at 8:05 and relax in the recliner with my coffee and watch Dog until I had enough energy to get back out of my chair and take a shower. (When I had the IV attached, I didn't need a shower, so I could watch uninterrupted episodes!)

Dog started on A&E in 2004 and lasted 8 seasons. Most of you probably know the story of Dog; Dog was convicted of murder in the 70s and went to jail in Texas; he was a model prisoner (turned his life around) and actually assisted in capturing a possible escapee in an escape attempt at the prison. He was paroled in 1979 and started his own Bounty Hunting company - trying to capture those people who have skipped bail/court appearances.

Not sure how he ended up in Hawaii -but he did - and had a successful company when the reality series "Take this Job" came a-calling. That show profiled those in odd/interesting jobs, and one episode profiled Dog. He was so popular that the network decided to spin it off and start another show starring Dog - and the show was born.

Dog runs the place with his wife Beth, brother, two eldest sons and his eldest daughter. He's had 3 marriages (I think) so not sure who is the mother for all the kids. There are other small kids running around that Dog had with Beth - some episodes center on those kids - I usually turn on Match Game for those episodes.

The 30 minute show is formulaic; we are introduced to the fugitive; he usually is a "bad guy" or "dangerous dude". About 15 minutes in, there's a close call at the Honolulu 7-11 or K Mart where they just miss him; then they finally capture him (with some assistance from the fugitive's snitching friends) and Dog drives him to the sheriff's station. The fugitive is always offered a cigarette in the car and Beth tries to get him/her to turn around their life and find God.

The show ended in 2012 and unfortunately now Beth has throat cancer so Dog and the family are supporting her in her struggle.

Let's continue the hunt for wins and for ugly game-winning field goals this week against the Chargers! This game should show off two of the all-time worst special team units. Over/under for missed field goals in the game? 3.5?

On to the games:

Atl 34, TB 27.  I can't help myself here in falling for the Falcons. I don't trust Jameis in his first start back, even after the bye.

Pit 26, Cin 23. I except an el-foldo from the Bengals again in the 4th quarter when playing the Steelers.

Hou 24, Buf 10. I do not see how Buffalo scores any points here, absent turnovers. Hou will shut down McCoy and I am supposed to believe that Allen will get 14-17 points? no.

Mia 23, Chi 13. Quiet - Mia has a pretty good defense. I don't trust Trubisky on the road - yet. Should be a low scoring game.

Min 24, Az 13. Another low scoring game here. Arizona has a good defense and Minny is turning into a one-dimensional team, which is dangerous.

Ind 23, NYJ 20. Just a hunch here. I'm impressed that the Colts can move the ball even with zero receivers; the Colts D is good enough to limit the Jets' run game.

Sea 28, Oak 26. Both of these defenses are trash. I expect a shootout here, and both teams have he weapons to do that. this game is in London, so of course it will probably be a 9-6 game.

Was 27, Car 20. Another defense I don't respect - Carolina. Alex Smith is a perfect opponent for this defense and will dink and dunk his way to scores. I'm worried about McCaffrey vs. the Wash run D.

Den 24, LAR 23. Should be snow in Denver today. Love the matchup of the #1 Den run offense vs. the weak Rams run D. Can Den slow down Goff at all???

Jax 20, Dal 17. Dal will be able to stop the Jags run game - so the Jags will have to win with Bortles passing on the road? Yikes. But the Cowboys can't move the ball.

Bal 23, Ten 17. Tennessee has yet to score over 20 in any game, and that will continue here. I think Baltimore can get to 23.

NE 27, KC 20. Belichick special. He will take the air out of the ball(ha ha! I'm so funny) and eat clock. He'll figure out something to slow down Mahomes just enough.

GB 31, SF 20. Ugh. So disappointed in the Niners last week - they can move the ball, and the Pack D is weak. But Rodgers at home Monday night?

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 5-7-1; overall: 33-36-2.
Atl -3
Pit +1.5
Hou -10
Buf/Hou under 40
Mia +4
Az/Min under 44
Ind +2.5
Sea/Oak over 48.5
Was +1
Den +7
Bal -2.5
NE -3.5
KC/NE under 60 (60!!!!! 60!!!!! anyone ever seen that???)

Supercontest picks: Last week: 2-2-1; overall: 13-10-2
Hou -9.5
Mia +3
Ind +2.5
Was -1
Den +6.5

NFL Week 5: Judge Judy

Well, last week's Browns game was heartbreaking - what else is new? - due to some questionable officiating calls. I don't need to hash them out here - you all know the big 2 calls that were missed. When the ex-dean of officiating is called on the game broadcast and says "I don't see any way this call can be overturned", and then it's overturned, it's annoying.

Now I understand why Raiders fans still hate Walt Anderson. He was the ref in the tuck game, I think. So 17 years later, Walt pays them back. So I expect Walt's son to be the ref of our game in 2035 and give us a favorable call against the London Jaguars in a playoff game.

Oh, and Miles Garrett was held throughout the second half.

Anyway, let's focus on our favorite daytime TV official - Judge Judy!

Show: Judge Judy

Network: Syndicated. I'm sure you all know what channel it's on in your area. For us, it's WXIX Channel 19.

When: 3:00, 3:30, 5:00, 5:30. They changed the schedule about a month ago and it messed up my routine!

Main characters: Judy, Petri Hawkins-Byrd

So Judge Judy is part of my daily routine - so much so that I think it annoys the boys now. If I have to do some computer work or emails, Judge Judy is the perfect background noise to have on to do that mindless task. And the 5:00, 5:30 Judge Judy is nice to have on when I run out of energy during the day, and the boys are all set doing homework (or not around due to activities).

And since I didn't see any Judge Judy's from 2010-2014 when I was in China, every rerun is like a new episode to me! It's comforting.

Judge Judy started airing in September, 1996 - so she has been on for 23 seasons now. Wow! She first aired before I got married.  The first idea for the name for the show was "Hot Bench with Judge Judy" - glad someone came around and nixed that idea.

I don't know what I can say about the show that everyone doesn't know - usually, there are two cases per episode; one side in each cases is usually typecast as the "dumbass" - and Judy goes after them hard. It's rare that both sides are well prepared, intelligent, and has compelling cases to make.

That's my one critique about Judge Judy now - it seems that in the more recent episode, she isn't even giving one side a chance any more. It's almost as if she knows how she will rule just be reading the statements - and her mind is made up before even entering the courtroom. Just seems more so now than before.

It's almost like she is Walt Anderson and the unfortunate party that she doesn't like is the Browns!

(Am I really criticizing the editing of a reality show? You betcha!)

There are a couple of principles that we can take away from the show that provide great lessons for the kids.

First: when your opponent is flailing around and losing his/her case, don't interrupt them! There are so many times when Judy is ripping the plaintiff's case, showing obvious holes- and the defendant then interrupts Judy. No! You're winning! Shut up! It's the old adage from politics that is brought to life vividly. From Napoleon: "Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.

Second: Never pay anything in cash! Geesh. "I loaned somebody $2000. I want to be paid back. No - I have no receipt. I make minimum wage - of course I can save $2000 in cash". Get a receipt for anything, boys.

I should have gotten a receipt for last week's picks. Not good at all. Here's Judge Judy's opinion of those picks. 

On to this week:

Buf 23, Ten 20. Ten has not scored more than 20 in any game so far this year. What a perfect letdown spot here for the Titans. I think McCoy will get going today.

Car 31, NYG 24. Starting to become a little more impressed with the Panthers; not sure their D is all that great, so Eli and the Giants will be able to move the ball.

Cin 23, Mia 21. Miami has enough team speed to keep Cinci on their toes (see the Panthers game); Mia's defense is good enough to slow down the Bengals' passing attack.

Det 27, GB 24. No clue here. I think the Packers are a totally different road team than home team; I expect a very close game here.

KC 24, Jax 20. The big question - can the Jags offense take advantage of a weak Chiefs' D? How good is the KC offense - finally playing an elite D unit?  (hint: Denver does not count).

NYJ 27, Den 17. Speaking of Denver - what a letdown spot here. I don't think their D is that good. Their coaching is subpar. I think the Jets will surprise here with an offensive mix.

Atl 31, Pit 30. Two completely desperate teams. Ben looked awful last week. I'd love to see another Steelers loss - but this is in Pittsburgh against a swiss cheese Falcons D.

LAC 31, Oak 27. I think we know both these teams by now- the Chargers can move the ball up and down the field, but will shoot themselves in the foot at the wrong time. A shootout seems destined.

Phi 23, Min 17. Min will shore up their pass D - no question. However, they are one-dimenisional on offense now and Philly will exploit that.

SF 27, Az 14. Call me a believer in CJ Beatherd. Shanahan will design plays for him to excel; I don't trust Rosen on the road for his first road start, and the head coaching matchup here favors SF.

LAR 27, Sea 16. How does Seattle score points here? Their offense is awful. They will do just enough on D to slow the Rams, but can't get to 20.

Hou 26, Dal 16. Hou has the #2 rushing defense - so they don't need extra effort to stop Zeke, forcing Dal to rely on their passing game. How's that going to work?

NO 30, Was 24. I like Washington and Alex Smith, and this should be a close game. The ball control offense will keep the Skins in the game.

Best bets: 13 this week. Last week: 4-9; overall: 28-29-1

Buf +5.5
NYG/Car over 43.5
Mia +6
Mia/Cin under 48
NYJ +1
Atl +3
Oak/LAC over 52.5
Phi -3
Min/Phi under 47
SF -3.5
LAR -7.5
LAR/Sea under 50
Hou -3

Supercontest picks: last week: 2-3; overall: 11-8-1
Buf +3.5
NYJ -1
Mia +6.5
SF -4
Hou -3

NFL Week 4: Gordon Ramsey's Kitchen Nightmares

Happy Ryder Cup Sunday! Excited to see the 12 singles matches to day to see if we Americans can create any drama at all by staging a comeback. I've got a lot of opinions on this year's Ryder Cup - mostly expressed on Twitter - I'm pissed at the American captains for allowing this home field advantage (set up by the Euros) to affect us so much. What stupidity.

Anyway, Captain Furyk has front loaded his lineup to try to get off to a great start - and that makes sense. I played in the Iowa City- Cedar Rapids Ryder Cup in 2004 and 2005; in '05, we were down a bit and our captain front-loaded our lineup. Our team completed the comeback and won - the last time Iowa City has won the cup. (It's true! I just checked!)

Oh -by the way? In that front loaded lineup? I was the anchor man, going off 12th. What an experience. In that Cup, there was the biggest pressure putt that I ever saw someone make live - and that's a story for another day.

Anyway, for week 4 of the NFL, we will outline Gordon Ramsey's Kitchen Nightmares!

Show: Gordon Ramsey's Kitchen Nightmares

Network: Currently on the FYI Network

When: All Day Monday! Monday is Nightmare Marathon on FYI.

Main Characters: Gordon, of course!

Yes, I've started to become a sucker for Gordon's shows. Throughout the spring when I was pretty much confined to my chair, I looked forward to Mondays - that meant the Kitchen Nightmare marathon was going to be on! It started around noon and went into the night - looking back on it, probably should have changed the channel around 4 when Martin got home so he wasn't subjected to the plethora of f-bombs.

Anyway, you all probably know the outline of each show:

- Struggling restaurant needs help, asks Gordon to come in to make it over

- Owners insist food is good, at least a 9 rating out of 10

- Gordon comes, tries the food - and 99% of the time calls it "slop", "dog food", "something the cat could have thrown up", or other such insults

- Gordon talks to the staff to get the real inside story

- A visit to the kitchen fridge to see all the problems in there (uncovered food, blood on the floor, etc.)

- The owners breaking down, admitting to the problems that are at the root cause

- Gordon's team re-doing the décor of the restaurant

- Gordon creating a new limited menu with 5 dishes (always seeming to include fish and chips - to replace the previous menu that had 129 choices

-  A happy ending, with a filled restaurant and rave reviews!

- A note at the end saying that "after 6 weeks of the changes, the sales are up and everybody is still happy".

Well, what else is there to say about the show? Two parts of the show I really love:


1. I do respect Gordon for always trying to corner the wait staff to really get at the problems of the restaurant. "Hey, can I talk to you for a second?" - that's always the start of some confessions. "Yes, all of our shrimp are frozen". "Yes, the soup of the day was made 10 days ago", etc.
That's a good organizational leadership model - talk to the first-level staff to get at the root causes quickly.

2. Why the limited menu? Sometimes, I want to go to a restaurant with 100+ choices! I don't know if I am in the mood for nachos, lasagna or tilapia. Why not go to a place that serves them all?? Maybe that's why I loved the Ground Round back in the day.



(side note- there was (and still is, I think) a Ground Round in Iowa City! I tried to take Janice there many times but she refused. Had to go on my own and eat the free popcorn).

There are websites out there devoted to what happens after Gordon leaves. Does the restaurant survive? Did they go back to making chicken with onions? I wonder what the survival rate of those restaurants are. For instance - does any of our Baltimore readers actually go to the new Café Hon in Baltimore to see the changes?

Why am I bringing this show up this week? Well, it looks like we may have made a critical change in the Browns' menu. Instead of offering up 29 starting quarterbacks - some days I'm in the mood for a Bruce Gradkowski - we may have found our one menu item that works. Baker Mayfield. Chef Dorsey has cleaned out our menu and settled on Mayfield.

The early returns - the first week - has been great. But what will the restaurant look 6 weeks from now? A year from now? Will we go back to the microwaved Tyrod Taylor dish and continue to struggle? Or will we keep the Mayfield dish for years to come? Only time will tell.

And injuries.

On to the games:

Cin 27, Atl 20. I don't get this. Atlanta is all banged up in the secondary - and AJ Green is back. I know it's Marvin Lewis, but won't Dalton throw all day over the Falcons D?

Chi 24, TB 13. Love the idea of the Bear pass rush - at home - vs. Fitzpatrick, or a rusty Winston. Pit's D forced Fitz into multiple turnovers - what are the Bears going to do?

Dal 23, Det 16. Love this spot here for the Cowboys. A team coming off their Super Bowl (Lions) and winning, going on the road to face a desperate team? Garrett better be prepared for this.

GB 24, Buf 20. If we throw out the disaster first week for the Bills, they haven't been too bad. The Packers barely beat the Bears at home, tied the Vikes, and lost to the Skins. They're overrated.

Ind 20, Hou 17. Scared of this game. Indy has played 3 straight games fairly well, and are facing a completely desperate Houston team with Watson getting better each week.

Jax 30, NYJ 16. The Jets have almost no weapons, and the Jags will focus this week to ensure a win. They can't look past another opponent.

NE 26, Mia 23. If you remove the names off the jersey, Miami should actually be favored in this one. What do the Pats do well? I know, they are desperate, but they look horrible.

Phi 23, Ten 16.  I have to give the Titans credit here for being 2-1 even though being 25th or worst in Off and Def. Vrabel will be a great coach. But I trust Wentz here.

Sea 20, Arz 17. Won't watch much of this - interested to see how Rosen fares in his first start (and if Bradford was the cause of the awful start) and how Sea O really is on the road.

LAC 31, SF 17. The Chargers can't be stopped on O - but their D can't stop anyone. I think they will stop Beatherd enough here to have a comfortable win.

NO 27, NYG 24. What a trap game here for the Saints, off the big Atl victory. I just can't trust Eli at all with my money. Should be a close game.

Pit 31, Bal 20. Classic game of matching up strengths/weaknesses. Pit has no pass D - and Baltimore can't take advantage. Pit's O is passing - and this is where missing Jimmy Smith will kill the Ravens.

KC 27, Den 24. Many are calling for the upset here, saying Den's D will stop KC. Den's D let up 24 to Seattle- Seattle!!!- and almost lost to Oakland. Let's not get carried away here.

Best bets: 13 of them. Last week: 10-3; overall: 24-20-1
Cin +3.5
Cin/Atl under 53
Chi -3
TB/Chi under 46.5
Dal -2.5
Buf +9.5
Hou/Ind under 47.5
Jax -7.5
NYJ/Jax over 39.5
Mia +6.5
Phi -3
LAC -10
Pit -3

Supercontest picks: Last week: 4-1; overall: 9-5-1
Cin +5
Chi -3
Dal -3
Buf +9.5
Pit -3