NFL Week 12: January 11, 1987

Hello there - We now resume regular blogging after a November filled with the election, anniversary and holiday travel. Just got back last night from the east coast - avoiding Pennsylvania turnpike traffic on the Sunday after Thanksgiving is a must. I've done that drive many times on the last Sunday in November and I have waited 60, 90 minutes at toll booths...never again.

Anyway, had a chance to drive by the old high school in Maryland for the first time in 7-8 years. Several additions have been made and some of the parts are not recognizable. However, the New Gym is still there - and that's the site of one of Cleveland's greatest (and infamous) sports memories.

( I will still refer to that gym as the "New Gym", even as it was in use when I was there; I think it opened in 1982 or 1983 and is now almost 35 years old. I wonder what is in place of the "Old Gym" now....)

The day was Sunday, January 11, one day after I turned 15. I had an indoor soccer game that afternoon, The Browns were playing in their first AFC Championship game vs. Denver, who at that time were not considered evil just yet. A week ago, we had a home playoff game vs. the Jets and was down 10 with 2 minutes to go; we somehow tied the game - sending it to overtime; the game went to double overtime and we won it on a Moseley field goal. People talk about the Miami/San Diego playoff game in the 70s to be the greatest game of all time; I think this Browns/Jets game from the '86 playoffs is better and should be #1.

Anyway - one week later we host the Broncos in the AFC Championship. Due to the soccer game, I set my VCR (just like the week before) in order to watch the game after my soccer game.

(By the way - that indoor season pissed me off. You know how there are always individual starts in rec league that always beat your team, and they seem to be on the teams that are 12-2, or 11-1, or whatnot? Yeah - we had one kid in our age group like that. And on this team this year, I was actually randomly drawn to be on his team! Awesome....until we ended up going 6-6 or something. The one time I get to be on the same team as the star, we go .500..... It can't be me, can it? Don't answer that).

The game was 3 pm or 4 pm or something like that - late in the afternoon. I do remember someone - maybe the arriving team of the game after us? - saying loudly: "the Browns and Broncos game went to overtime!". Well, gee thanks, thanks for ruining the suspense for those that have it taped.

So we go home - the game was over by then - and we rewind the tape; I watch the Browns score a TD with 5 minutes left to go up 20-13. Since I know we went to overtime, I just fast forward through the next 5 minutes, since I know what happens. Of course, that's 5 minutes of the most painful football in Cleveland memory, as Elway led the Broncos on the Drive.

I stop at the coin toss and watch it live; we win the toss. Great!

And then we go 3 and out.  Punt it away.

The Broncos then got the ball, moved down the field, and their drive stalled around the 15. Rich Karlis came out on 4th down to attempt the kick.....

the video of the field goal is here. .

Look, I thought he missed it watching it live (on tape). The fact there there has been no discussion of this - ever  - is certainly fishy. All Browns fans I know that watched this game are convinced he missed it.

The fact that I have to go to some second-rate website to even find the video is telling. Why is the NFL erasing the tapes from the kick?

I will go to my grave believing these 2 facts...and no one will be able to convince me otherwise:

1. Ross Perot would have won the 1992 presidential election if he did not drop out, and
2. Rich Karlis missed his overtime kick in the 1986 AFC Championship game.

That is all......let's go beat the Giants today.

To the games:

Min 27, Det 16. I can't believe the result of this game...
Dal 31, Was 23
Pit 27, Ind 10 
(these are the predictions I made Wed night).

Atl 24, Arz 16. Wow, I am starting to come to terms with the fact that the Cardinals' O is bad...really bad.

Bal 23, Cin 13. Cincinnati looks like a team that knows its window has closed and their 5 year run is over. Thank goodness for us Bengals haters in SW Ohio.

Buf 27, Jax 16. At this point, what can you say about Jacksonville? They will always give the game up when needed.

Ten 28, Chi 27. I can't trust this Tennessee defense to stop anyone. Even Matt Barkley....They can score, sure....

Hou 23, SD 20. SD off a bye, where their offense was clicking; the bye will take them out of rhythm.

Mia 23, SF 13. San Fran is the opposite of Cincinnati/Jacksonville; they seem to be improving as the season goes on here....

NO 24, LA 17. I guess we will give the rams 17 points...that loss last week was bitter.

Sea 27, TB 24. This will be a good test of how good Winston is vs. a decent pass defense.

Car 26, Oak 23. I'm still not sold on this Oakland team. They can be beaten by a team with a decent defense (check) that does not turn the ball over (uh, Cam?)

NE 31, NYJ 17. Why stand in front of the Pats' bus at this point?

KC 20, Den 17. I believe last week's hiccup for the Chiefs was a lookahead game to this game. What is the Denver offense? The Chiefs will limit them.

Phi 27, GB 20. The Packers are the 3rd team that I think are imploding. Their whole body language says they are finished.

Best bets: 14 total for the week; last week: 8-6; overall: 64-61-6
Min +2.5 (L)
Pit -3 (W)
Pit/Ind under 50 (W)
Atl -4
Az/Atl under 50.5
Bal -3.5
Chi +6
Ten/Chi over 41.5
Hou +2.5
SF/Mia under 46
Car +3.5
NE -8
KC +3.5
Phi -3.5

My supercontest picks: last week: 2-3; overall: 27-27-1
KC +3.5
Min +2.5 (L)
Car +3
Bal -4
Hou +1.5

Overall combined official Supercontest picks: last week: 1-4; overall: 26-26-3
SD -1.5
KC +3.5
Bal -4
Car +3
Min +2.5 (L)

NFL Week 11

No time for a writeup as we are headed to the airport....

Predictions:

Buf 27, Cin 24
Dal 20, Bal 14
Jax 27, Det 24
Ten 30, Ind 20
KC 23, TB 13
Min 16, Az 13
NYG 27, Chi 16
LA 23, Mia 16
NE 27, SF 10
Sea 17, Phi 13
Was 31, GB 20
Oak 26, Hou 16

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 8-6; overall: 56-55-6
Buf +2.5
Bal/Dal under 45
Jax +6
Ten +2.5
KC -7
TB/KC under 44
Az/Min under 40
NYG -7
LA +2
NE -11.5
NE/SF under 51
Phi/Sea under 42.5
Was -3
Oak -6

I have 5 unders and zero overs. Don't like that.

Personal supercontest picks: Last week: 3-2; overall: 25-24-1
Buf +2.5
Jax +6.5
Ten +3
LA +2.5
Was -2.5

Combined official supercontest picks: Last week: 1-4; overall: 25-22-3
Ten +3
Jax +6.5
LA +2.5
GB -3
Oak -5.5

NFL Week 10: November 8, 2016

Hello everyone. What a week of intrigue, chaos and unpredictable results. And now we have no idea what's going to happen in the short term.

But enough about college football. I want to take some time and move away from sporting memories to put down some thoughts on the presidential election. This will be a bit of a post-mortem, there will be some perspective from my viewpoint, and an idea of where we are going in the future. I welcome any discussion in the comments. We've had civil arguments before on this blog - I'd love to return to those days!

Anyway, some key thoughts floating around in my head after the election on Donald J. Trump to the presidency.

1. Political Messaging counts. And this was Hillary's Achilles' heel in the end. I think I read that Hillary's team tried 75 different possibilities for a single message - before deciding on 2 that were seen throughout the campaign:

- "Stronger Together" - we'll get to that in a moment, and
- "Love Trumps Hate".

If you think about it, those two messages contradicted each other. "Stronger together" implies that we, as a nation, would be better if we all come together.....which sounds great.....except when you hear the second theme. It seems they want the nation to come together except for the "haters". And haters can be defined very loosely.  So which is it?

The Love Trumps Hate has got to be the stupidest message in the last 50 years for America. We have real, serious problems in the US - and this is the answer. It's like we are living in "Aquarius: the Sequel" in Broadway.

ISIS Violence? No problem, if we just "love" them, it will go away.
Gun violence/regulation ? Those in favor of the 2nd amendment are just people who hate.
Illegal Immigration? Let's just "love" those that come here illegally, and all the problems will go away.

Of course, I'm not saying Trump has the solutions for these with his motto....but Hillary's message is dated. It's a very idealistic goal for a very realistic time. Completely 180 from what the electorate wanted.

2. The "hidden Trump vote" factor is real, exacerbated by bullying. In 1982, Tom Bradley won the election for mayor of Los Angeles over a African-America candidate; the African-American was leading in the polls until the end when Bradley pulled off a win. Political scientists (I studied this!) postulated abut the "Bradley effect" - that people may not tell pollsters their real intentions in a voice poll, but will certainly reveal their intentions at the ballot box. In the Bradley case, the theory was that a certain part of the electorate was racist that told pollster one thing but voted for  Bradley.

 I do believe this effect was in play for the 2016 election. For many reasons, it has become "unfashionable" to out yourself as a Trump supporter. "Are you an idiot?" is a popular question I hear of people that are thinking of supporting Trump. There's no debate of the issues....it's simply "groupthink". If the popular culture is all for Hillary, then you are a rube for thinking otherwise!

That's dangerous. And that just pissed people off.

One great example is HB2 in North Carolina. Look, I feel like I am socially moderate. (I have moved to the left, like the nation, on several issues socially). I'm for gay marriage and abortion.

But HB2 - the transgender bill in North Carolina - I'm sorry, I don't understand it. What's the point of the bill? How will this affect businesses? How many people does this affect? What's the impact to the population? I'm open to it, I just want to understand it better. I think there are legit concerns that some mothers have of men coming into women's restrooms. How to alleviate that?

Again, I'm open to hear arguments - but there were no arguments. It was "shut up - if you oppose this, you are a bigot. Sit down and shut up". Seriously! And the NCAA goes in and takes away tournmanet games...on the basis of a law where (I am guessing) 80% of the people are genuinely on the fence about. That's bullying. That's political bullying, and I think voters sent a message that they won't be bullied.

If you can't argue a position (besides "you are a hater"), that's a red flag.

This British comedian has the best explanation for Trump's rise - and the fault of the left for making this possible. I urge everyone to watch this so we all - left, right and moderate - don't fall into the same trap again....

3. It is unfathomable how the Clinton campaign did not know how to campaign to maximize electoral votes. I know this has the benefit of 20/20 hindsight.... but not going into Wisconsin and Michigan (until the very end) was malpractice.  They should have seen that McCrory was in a dead heat in North Carolina, so the "bigot"/"love" argument may not be working in North Carolina. They should have seen the countryside in Ohio, Pennsylvania, even Virginia (as reported by a reader here) and the mass amount of Trump signs.

They were focused on turning people out- but the people they turned out didn't matter. They lived in 7-8 states, states that were so dark blue it wasn't needed. The people influenced by this message as something to vote "for" lived in CA, WA, NY, MD, DC, VA. All states that were already in the bag for Hillary. Running up the vote there did not matter. At All.

There were plenty of anti-Trump ads from Hillary here in Ohio. That's fine.....but she never had a message for swing state voters to vote for her. Why should a middle class housewife in Dayton vote for her? Why should a union member from Youngstown vote for her? These are people that voted for Obama twice.....

The campaign never realized that these voters are the ones that swing the election, rightly or wrongly. And they never played to them.

The electoral college is the method to pick our president. The Clinton campaign acted if the popular vote determined the winner. The electoral college is why Trump when to Green Bay, WI, Grand Rapids, MI and Scranton, PA at the end of the campaign. If the popular vote decided the election, the Trump campaign would have had a much, much different strategy.

I remember a Browns game in the early  90s when we beat the Bengals 14-13. it was a weird game - Matt Stover (!!!) had four field goals and we had a safety; that was just enough to beat the Bengals' more conventional 13 points.

Many "whiners" sound like the Bengals fans from that game. "but you didn't even score a touchdown! You don't deserve to win!" You play by the rules of the game. It's not touchdowns, it points. It's not the popular vote, it's the electoral college. The electoral college was set up for a reason - to prevent large populous states from having too much say in the nation. It's working exactly as intended....

4. Which gets us to the riots. I'm lost. What, exactly, are they protesting? What do they want? Is this just a temper tantrum? If so, this can logically be seen as the end point of our participation-trophy culture. Is it because Hillary won the popular vote but lost the electoral vote? If so, then please re-take civics again.

Saw a tweet out there that is a perfect summary of my thought on the riots:

Many people out there voted for Trump reluctantly with a tinge of regret......
What the rioters are doing right now simply confirms they made the right choice.

(by the way - that picture up above? That's the infamous Romney riots of 2012)

There are serious risks with the Trump presidency - I know, maybe I'll have time to go into them later. The risks were publicized by Clinton and her team - but no overarching reason to vote "for" her was actaully given.

I wanted to put a point 5 here - it's extremely difficult to win the presidency when you are of the same party of someone who just served 2 terms (see Stevenson*, Nixon, Gore, McCain.....). HW Bush did it because he ran against a horrible candidate in Dukakis. Clinton had to try to walk a fine line of "everything's great! Obama is wonderful" and "I hear you! We need change!". A good politican will have lots of trouble with that.....never mind a horrible one like Hillary.

After all that, no time for writeups on the games....here we are:

Car 25, KC 13
Hou 20, Jax 17
NO 30, Den 20
NYJ 20, LA 13
Phi 27, Atl 24
Chi 30, TB 24
Gb 31, Ten 27
Was 23, Min 13
Mia 24, SD 20
Az 20, SF 17
Pit 27, Dal 24
NE 31, Sea 21
Cin 27, NYG 17

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 6-7-1; overall: 48-49-6
Car -3
Hou +2.5
NO -3
NYJ pk
LA/NYJ under 39.5
Chi -2.5
Chi/TB over 45.5
GB/ten over 49.5
Was -2
Min/Was under 42
Mia +4.5
SF +13.5
SF/Az under 47.5
Cin -1

My supercontest picks: last week: 1-4; overall : 22-22-1
Car -3
Mia +4
Cin +2
NO -3
SF +13.5

Our combined Supercontest picks: Last week: 3-1-1; overall: 24-18-3
Cle +9.5 (Loss)
Car -3
NO -3
NYJ -1.5
Phi pk

NFL Week 9: November 3, 2016

Well, when I chose this theme for the blog this year, it didn't even occur to me that I could add another day from 2016 to the entries. But then along came the 2016 Cleveland Indians.

I don't have time to write up my whole feelings and experience about the game - many of you know I had a chance to attend the game, thanks to Don. What a day. What an experience. Rajai's homer in the 8th is something I'll never forget. And the "intermission" rain delay was surreal.

Not a lot of time for writeups, so here are the predictions:

Pit 27, Bal 24
KC 20, Jax 17
Mia 20, NYJ 16
Min 27, Det 17
Phi 23, NYG 16
Car 20, LA 13
NO 24, SF 20
GB 30, Ind 27
Ten 27, SD 20
Den 27, Oak 23
Sea 26, Buf 23, OT

Best bets: 14 of them. Last week: 7-5; overall: 42-42-5
Pit/Bal over TBD
Jax +7.5
Jax/KC under 44
NYJ/Mia under 44
Min -6.5
Phi +3
Car -3
Car/LA under 44
NO/SF under 52.5
Ind +7
Ten +4
Den +1
Buf +7
Buf/Sea over 43.5

My supercontest picks: last week: 3-2; overall: 21-18-1
Phi +2.5
Den pk
Ten +5
Min -5.5
Jax +7

Our official combined supercontest picks: last week: 2-2-1; overall: 21-17-2
Phi +2.5
Mia -3.5
Car -3
Ind +7.5
Bal pk