Vegas March 2016

With two weeks left until our 19^th annual trip to Vegas, I’m starting to get a little nervous.  The usual excitement that I have for the Vegas trip has been replaced by guilt and stress.  The guilt comes from my upcoming travel schedule.  I head to Vegas on Mar 8^th and I don’t get back home until Mar 26^th.  I have to fly out from Vegas on Sunday to Thailand, Malaysia, and Japan for two weeks for work, so I’ll be away from the family for 3 weeks.   For the first time ever, Carol mentioned that maybe I should head back from Vegas on Friday so that I can spend one day with the kids before heading out.   Yeah, I’m not prepared to do that just yet. So I’ll be flying out of Vegas at 7:00am to LAX, so catch my connection to Bangkok at 10:50am.  Nothing like a 20+ hour flight right after Vegas.

The stress comes from the bankroll.   College Basketball has been a disaster in Nov-Dec causing my Vegas bankroll to go down a significant amount.   I have rebounded in Jan-Feb, but not even close enough to make back any money.  Couple that with a 50/50 chance of me losing my job since AIG is a disaster, my annual bonus still up in the air, the market kicking me in the ass, and my last big trip to Vegas last July, where I got absolutely destroyed, my confidence level is at a new low and my stress level is at a new high.  If I start out ice cold on Tuesday evening in Vegas, I know I could become gun shy which is never fun or a good thing when it comes to gambling.    

Last year, I had the great success for the trip.  I played responsible for the most part and adhered to my strategy, and came back up for the trip.  Trying to read my notes from last year and while I had some very weak moments, I was able to minimize my losses and take profits when I was hot.   A couple of initial thoughts about what I need to continue to focus on for this trip:

·         Loss Limits-  This is more like a bankroll for a session.  I feel comfortable on what I take to the table now for a bankroll. 

o   Craps-  $1500 at a $15 table limit and $2000 for a $25 table limit

o   UTH- $1500 for a $25 table limit

o   Roulette- Don’t really play this anymore, but just in case it will be $300. 

o   Black Jack-Salon- This is really the only one I struggle with.  I really don’t like taking $2000 for the session.  Don’t know why, but this is the right amount. 

o   Baccarat- $1000-  Its not the loss limit that is the problem here.  Its my pressing and betting strategy.  Need to read up on this before going back out.

o   Pai Gow- $500-  I really hate playing this game now.  Maybe it’s because I have ZERO strategy on pressing or how to make money.  Or maybe I just hate the game now.  I won’t play this game by myself, and its only fun if we have a full table and we tend to be drunk.  Other than that, I feel like I’m on a time out whenever I play this.

·         Win Limits-  Wiz sort of drilled this into me two years ago and it really helps out to take profits when you get hot.   A pre-defined win limit just like a loss limit before you sit down at the table.  And you have to be prepared to pick up the instant you hit that win limit and not dick around.  I remember Wiz did this to me for the first time in the middle of the shoe in the Salon two years ago.   I was upset at first, but I now understand how important it is to pick up the instant you hit this limit.   For example, in July, Wiz and I sat down in the Salon for some afternoon BJ.   I set a win limit of $2k.  In the middle of the FIRST shoe, I hit my win limit.  I must of won the first 10-15 hands and I was pressing.   I decided that I would wait until the end of the FIRST shoe and if I was up $2k I would pick up.  Well guess what happened.   The second half of the shoe got cold and I was only up $1,500.  I decided that I would stay since I wasn’t at my win limit anymore.   3 markers later, I picked up down a ton and just sooo upset at what happened.  While this is an extreme example, I can’t tell you how many times this has happened to me at Craps.   Win Limits have really helped me get away from the table with money and reset.   Other than the July incident, I have followed this frequently and has helped out tremendously on taking profits.

o   Craps- I think this is probably where Win Limits come into play the most.  I’m up a decent amount of money after a solid roll and I stay at the table to either roll or say that I’m going to leave after the next roll, or something like that.  Next thing you know you have given back some of the profits or all of the profits which leads to staying at the table longer.  I’ve set my win limits to $2k-$3k depending on the time and who I’m playing with.   If I hit my win limit in the middle of a roll, I will limit what additional money I put on the table. 

o   UTH- depending on the time and who I’m playing with it will be $2k-$4k.  

o   Salon- this is really tough and need to hammer out before I sit down.  I have gone on huge runs in the salon to where I’ve won $5k-$6k multiple times. So the x1 or x1.5 my bankroll wouldn’t of allowed me to go on some of those runs.  

o   Baccarat- No clue on this.   Just like the salon, I have gone on massive runs in the $5k-$6k arena on several different occasions.   Not too sure how important this is, since I don’t tend to bleed back profits in this game.   Since I’m not a huge fan of the game, I have no problem picking up after a hot run.  Might just set it at $5K. 

o   Roulette/Pai Gow-  Ugh.  Whatever.  If I’m playing these games, its on such an infrequent basis and with small amounts, so I haven’t even thought about it.   I will say that its to double my bankroll in a session. 

·         Sports gambling-  A couple of key things that worked for me last year:

o   Don’t be afraid to max out on games I love!  Can’t just bet the same amount on the games I love and games I have a small lean on.  

o   For games I have a small lean on but still want to wager, I need to knock my amount down by 75%.   This allows me to still have action on that game, but won’t eat into my bankroll in a large way.

o   2^nd half wagering- Continue to either make double up or hedge out of overall wagering based on 2^nd half lines. I can’t be afraid to hedge out, pay the juice and wait for the next game.  I don’t do a lot of this, but need to be OK with admitting I made the wrong decision and I now have an opportunity to get out of it.

o   Moneyline wagering on favorites-   Continue with this strategy. It seems to be working.

o   Limit Moneyline parlays-  I tend to do 2 or 3 team ML parlays since I don’t like to lay so much money on the favorite.  These tend not to work out, so I need to stay away from this.

·         Drinking-  So I’m trying not to drink so much beer over the past 3-4 years.   So at home I tend to drink Vodka or Scotch.  This works out well at home since I have a couple of drinks and I can call it a night.  But in Vegas, where I might be drinking for 8-10 hours, vodka is a bad bad bad choice and beer would be better suited.  Need to figure out what will be my go to drink.  Vodka lemonades have not treated me well in Vegas.   

I'm hoping to get some more posts over the next two weeks.  If you want to waste 4 hours of your day, go back and read the 10 years of Vegas posts.  They are classic.