Sep 15, 2013

NFL Week 2 : Hong Kong

Well, that wasn’t a very good first week. Some bad beats, some complete miscalculations on teams (Patriots??) and some obvious traps that I did not avoid (Texans) foiled me last week. Time to get back to normal this week (hopefully) as we get a better sense of these teams.

When we want to get “back to normal”, the closest outlet we have for that is Hong Kong. Hong Kong is officially part of China, but it does feel like a completely different culture and society. First – and most importantly – English is an official language there (still), so you can actually understand all the signs that surround you. Almost everyone speaks English as well. This is an incredbible rellef after being in China for months at a time dealing with simple miscommunications.
 
The city is far, far more diverse than Guangzhou. There is a heavy Australian population there, as well as a big European influence – not to mention the British. Any sort of food is readily available….just last weekend we were there and we had BLT for dinner! Yes, the real hamburger restaurant! I had the tex-Mex burger with the Vanilla shake. Exquisite.

(There’s also a breakfast “diner” down the road from our regular hotel that serves pancakes, omelettes, and French toast like any American diner. We’ve been there many a time).

It’s not home, but it’s the closest you can get while over here. As I have said many times before, you can “breathe” there. The people are friendlier, and don’t seem to crowd you as much as in Guangzhou. The city is clean and organized –helpful for taxis and for reading maps. The tourist sites are understandable – like Stanley, an English outpost on the back end of the main island that has a San Diego-feel to it.

The reason why we went there last week was for a group boat trip; someone organized a group of 60 of us to rent 2 yachts and cruise around the island for a day. Pure heaven to get away – except for the part where the group of 8- to 12-year old kids found that if you put ice on the upper deck, you can slide around like a curling stone on ice…..fun, until someone’s legs (mine) got in the way of one of those stones…..

Hong Kong is a great place to get away for a few days – you really can’t spend more than 3 days there – every six months to get your fill of regular, normal, Western life. Let’s get that normalcy back here in week 2 with the picks…time for a winning record! I did get a wager in on the Jets for the Thursday game, so I do feel a bit better.

I hate to say it, but I see a “normal” beatdown of the Browns this weekend. What are we on now, 8 losses in a row to the Ravens? I really can’t see anything different here, with an angry Ravens team and our surprisiningly inept offense. Oh sure, we will give hope – like we always to – we will be down 3 late in the 3rd, driving, and then something will happen – a Trent fumble, or (more likely) a tipped pass interception. It won’t be Ed Reed running it back 105 yards for a TD – who’s the safety now for the Ravens? That’s the guy to score a defensive TD against us.

On to the games:

Car 23, Buf 17. The Panthers have the run game to attack Buffalo’s D. I was not impressed with Buffalo’s offense last week.

Ind 30, Mia 23. I think we were the main cause of Miami’s victory last week – it wasn’t much of what the Dolphins did. And I think Luck’s home magic will pull them through again.

Hou 24, Ten 13. I know they played Monday – but Houston has something to prove after that ugly game. And let’s not crown the Titans yet.

KC 28, Dal 24. No real clue what to expect here – Dallas usually doesn’t do well on the road – but how good is KC, really?

GB 31, Was 21. The Packers are desperate here – and Washington can be exposed against the pass.

Phi 31, SD 20. The Eagles seem to sure be the easy pick here, right? This seems too easy – SD, a West Coast team, losing a heartbreaker and heading east….yes, I may fall for it.

Chi 24, Min 16. I will be one of the last doubters of the Bears – now watch them go 6-0 to start the season.

TB 24, NO 23. This seems like a game where everyone will be on the side of the Saints – and they are in the Supercontest – but it’s a game they can easily lose to a suddenly desperate Buccaneers team.

Atl 24, StL 13. Speaking of desperate – the Falcons will lay the wood on the Rams here. I was not impressed watching the Rams last week….tough to say if the Cards D is good, but I think Atl’s D is better.

NYG 30, Den 27. Way overvaluing the Broncos and totally disrespecting the Giants (and Coughlin). The Giants turned the ball over 7 times – and almost won! – last week!

Az 27, Det 24. I have no idea – can we really trust the Lions on the road just yet?

Oak 17, Jax 13. Not sure if Oakland can move the ball consistently – we don’t know how good or bad the Colts D is just yet – and the Jags will have problems on O. So watch this game be a classic 38-35 shootout.

Sea 27, SF 20. I think people are consistently underrating the home field advantage the Seahawks have. They absolutely have to have this game if they want to reach the Super Bowl. That is not an exaggeration.

Cin 21, Pit 20. Desperation with the Steelers plus the “great” coaching of Marvin Lewis equals a game that will be a lot closer than people think. Big Ben doesn’t lose in Cincinnati, and he’s used to having his line collapse.

Best bets: 15 this week. Last week: 6-10-1.
Car -3
Ind -2 1/2
Mia/Ind over 43
Hou -8
Ten/Houo under 43
Dal/KC over 46
Phi -7 1/2
TB +3
Atl -5 1/2
StL/Atl under 46 1/2
Az +2
NYG +4 1/2
Jax/Oak under 39 1/2
Sea -3
Pit +7

Supercontest picks: Last week: 1-3-1
Car -3
Ind -2 1/2
Atl -6 1/2
NYG +4 1/2
Pit +7

Jeesh, I don't like the number of favorites I have this week......

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