Can someone explain to me how fanduel.com is legal? So I can make a deposit, do weekly or even daily fantasy sports plays, and win money from other people. How is this not legalized gambling? The site is owned by rotoworld which is owned by NBC, so I'm asumming someone checked in on this.
I'm hoping Wiz signs up so we can go head to head each week and bet on our fantasy teams. And they have it for every sport. CFL? yup. WNBA? yup. Holy crap this is going to get interesting once College Basketball starts up....
Sep 29, 2013
Magic Number Blogging
Well, this really snuck up on me. Yes, of course I have been following the Tribe daily - but it never made sense to get excited about it since we were behind Tampa and Texas, and there are serious questions about this offense, and of course, our human gas can closer.
But here we are now. Somehow in the lead for the Wild Card, with one game to play.
The only way we miss the playoff is if all these things happen:
- We lose on Sunday
- Tampa wins on Sunday
- Texas wins on Sunday
- We host Tampa on Monday and lose, then
- We go to Texas on Tuesday and lose.
If all those 5 things happen, we miss the playoffs.
Let's just see how this plays out , and then we can analyze some more as we progress in the week.
But - it's nice to do these "numbers" posts again. Go Tribe!
NFL picks for week 4 below.....
NFL Week 4: Harbin
It's time for week 4 of the NFL season - and that's usually a time where you step back and re-evaluate what has been happening so far in the league. What has gone the way you expected? What has been unexpected surprises and disappointments?
That brings us to Harbin - the northernmost "big" city in China, and the home of the Ice festival in January. We have been told every year that the Ice festival was not to be missed - and so this past January, we made the trip. Beforehand, we were honestly worried about it. It would be cold - 10 to 15 below.
And the wind! Oh, that wind chill would be 30 to 40 below. It gave us the impression that you could only be inside for 15 minutes. Bob Turk's voice was in my head - "don't be exposed for too long out there!" And that was just a reminder for Baltimore weather!
This is the closest I have ever been to Sibera - and we would go outside with kids? To see what? Mounds of ice lit up like a Lite Brite? How impressive could this be? Well, the trip was an unexpected surprise. We bundled up as much as we could the first night. With temperatures hovering around -15 C (about 0), we stayed outside for about 45 minutes in a public plaza looking at some mini ice scupltures. The Pizza Hut for dinner certainly helped warm us up. The next day was the "real" thing. We would be outside for 60, 90 minutes at a time - then a break - then do it again. 3 exposure sessions.
The first session, in the morning, was to the Siberian Tiger Park. This was neat - if only to see the solid frozen pee of some white lines frozen up against a solitary tree in his cage.
The second session was to visit the snow sculptures - which were amazing. 25 feet tall, 80-100 feet long- just works of art that were showcases. We stayed outside for about 90 minutes,playing in the snow (at noon, the warmest part of the day)....and had the scariest ride of my life in an inner tube ride down an ice hill------with very little in terms of safety precautions on the side. Don't start rocking this tube, Martin!
The last session was for the main ice festival. We got there about 4 pm - right at dusk - and the temperature was about 0 F when we started....and got colder. However, there were so many activities for everyone. A small maze, with more ice slides. Weird games such as "spin the acorn on the ice" and "3rd grade schoolchair racing". Drinking Harbin Ice Beer in an igloo. 40 foot high slides where there was no person in charge, so every slide ended in a 5 person pile up at the bottom of the slide. (No matter - since you are wearing 8 layers of clothing, it's like smashing bean bags together). We stayed until about 5:30, mesmerized by the ice and the colors. Only til then did we finally feel the effects of the cold, now about -10, -15 F. All in all, a wonderful long weekend away, and an unexpected surprise.
Kind of like Brian Hoyer, no? We started the season hoping the Browns had a solid defense and a balanced offense, with Trent having plenty of carries and being used in the backfield as a weapon on short passes.
Now? We've got Ken O'Brien junior back there ready to heave it 55, 60 times, with a one-legged running back. My, how things change in 3 weeks. We will see if this is a fluke, or real talent over the next 3 games, all at home.
Allow me to dream a bit (which I will, since I am on vacation right now in Cebu) - if we can steal this game vs. Cinci (where we always play Marvin well, except when we forget to break the huddle), then we have Buffalo (Thu night) and Detroit, two teams that are not great on the road........
There is a bar here open 24 hours; I will be sitting in there at 2 am with the drunks at the resort with my Joe Thomas jersey.
On to the games:
Buf 23, Bal 20. Bal won last week at home by gifts from the Texans. The Ravens won't get those on the road.
Det 31, Chi 24. I trust in the Lions at home; the Bears are lucky to be 3-0 after two close wins vs. Cinci and Min.
Sea 26, Hou 23. Can't pick against the Seahawks until they actually, you know, lose.
Ind 23, Jax 13. The Colts will play ball control on offense,and the Jags have no weapons.
KC 20, NYG 16. Are we sure KC is good?
Min 24, Pit 13. Minnesota had a good offensive showing in 3 games - vs. the Lions (on the road), Bears, and yes, teh Browns. So they can score points. And Their good defensive line is going up against the swiss cheese Pittsbrugh O line. I see Ben running for his life a lot back there.
TB 27, Az 24. I don't know who will win, but I do see a lot of turnovers (good Az Defense, and Carson Palmer as Az QB) - which means points.
Ten 20, NYJ 17. I think every prediction site will pick a 20-17 score in this game.
Den 38, Phi 23. How will Chip Kelly devise a plan for this game?
Was 24, Oak 13. I'm not impressed with Oakland, and this is a must-win, desperation position for the Skins. This is a perfect time for a RGIII breakout game.
SD 27, Dal 20. These outdoor games against good defenses are the ones the Cowboys almost always lose.
Atl 31, NE 20. Let's review the QBs that the Patriots have played. EJ Manuel's first start. Geno Smith. Josh Freeman. Are we sure the Pats D is good?
NO 31, Mia 21. A great test for the Dolphins D.
Best bets: 14 of them. Another bad week last week: 5-9-1; season total: 17-28-2.
Buf +3
Det -3
Chi/Det over 48
Sea/Hou over 41 1/2
Ind/Jax under 42
Min +2 1/2
NYG/KC under 43 1/2
Az/TB over 40
Den -11
Was -3
Was/Oak under 44 1/2
SD +1 1/2
Atl -2 1/2
NO -6 1/2
Supercontest picks: Last week: 2-2-1; overall: 4-9-2
Buf +3
Min +2 1/2
Was -3
SD +2 1/2
Atl -2 1/2
And the wind! Oh, that wind chill would be 30 to 40 below. It gave us the impression that you could only be inside for 15 minutes. Bob Turk's voice was in my head - "don't be exposed for too long out there!" And that was just a reminder for Baltimore weather!
This is the closest I have ever been to Sibera - and we would go outside with kids? To see what? Mounds of ice lit up like a Lite Brite? How impressive could this be? Well, the trip was an unexpected surprise. We bundled up as much as we could the first night. With temperatures hovering around -15 C (about 0), we stayed outside for about 45 minutes in a public plaza looking at some mini ice scupltures. The Pizza Hut for dinner certainly helped warm us up. The next day was the "real" thing. We would be outside for 60, 90 minutes at a time - then a break - then do it again. 3 exposure sessions.
The first session, in the morning, was to the Siberian Tiger Park. This was neat - if only to see the solid frozen pee of some white lines frozen up against a solitary tree in his cage.
The second session was to visit the snow sculptures - which were amazing. 25 feet tall, 80-100 feet long- just works of art that were showcases. We stayed outside for about 90 minutes,playing in the snow (at noon, the warmest part of the day)....and had the scariest ride of my life in an inner tube ride down an ice hill------with very little in terms of safety precautions on the side. Don't start rocking this tube, Martin!
The last session was for the main ice festival. We got there about 4 pm - right at dusk - and the temperature was about 0 F when we started....and got colder. However, there were so many activities for everyone. A small maze, with more ice slides. Weird games such as "spin the acorn on the ice" and "3rd grade schoolchair racing". Drinking Harbin Ice Beer in an igloo. 40 foot high slides where there was no person in charge, so every slide ended in a 5 person pile up at the bottom of the slide. (No matter - since you are wearing 8 layers of clothing, it's like smashing bean bags together). We stayed until about 5:30, mesmerized by the ice and the colors. Only til then did we finally feel the effects of the cold, now about -10, -15 F. All in all, a wonderful long weekend away, and an unexpected surprise.
Kind of like Brian Hoyer, no? We started the season hoping the Browns had a solid defense and a balanced offense, with Trent having plenty of carries and being used in the backfield as a weapon on short passes.
Now? We've got Ken O'Brien junior back there ready to heave it 55, 60 times, with a one-legged running back. My, how things change in 3 weeks. We will see if this is a fluke, or real talent over the next 3 games, all at home.
Allow me to dream a bit (which I will, since I am on vacation right now in Cebu) - if we can steal this game vs. Cinci (where we always play Marvin well, except when we forget to break the huddle), then we have Buffalo (Thu night) and Detroit, two teams that are not great on the road........
There is a bar here open 24 hours; I will be sitting in there at 2 am with the drunks at the resort with my Joe Thomas jersey.
On to the games:
Buf 23, Bal 20. Bal won last week at home by gifts from the Texans. The Ravens won't get those on the road.
Det 31, Chi 24. I trust in the Lions at home; the Bears are lucky to be 3-0 after two close wins vs. Cinci and Min.
Sea 26, Hou 23. Can't pick against the Seahawks until they actually, you know, lose.
Ind 23, Jax 13. The Colts will play ball control on offense,and the Jags have no weapons.
KC 20, NYG 16. Are we sure KC is good?
Min 24, Pit 13. Minnesota had a good offensive showing in 3 games - vs. the Lions (on the road), Bears, and yes, teh Browns. So they can score points. And Their good defensive line is going up against the swiss cheese Pittsbrugh O line. I see Ben running for his life a lot back there.
TB 27, Az 24. I don't know who will win, but I do see a lot of turnovers (good Az Defense, and Carson Palmer as Az QB) - which means points.
Ten 20, NYJ 17. I think every prediction site will pick a 20-17 score in this game.
Den 38, Phi 23. How will Chip Kelly devise a plan for this game?
Was 24, Oak 13. I'm not impressed with Oakland, and this is a must-win, desperation position for the Skins. This is a perfect time for a RGIII breakout game.
SD 27, Dal 20. These outdoor games against good defenses are the ones the Cowboys almost always lose.
Atl 31, NE 20. Let's review the QBs that the Patriots have played. EJ Manuel's first start. Geno Smith. Josh Freeman. Are we sure the Pats D is good?
NO 31, Mia 21. A great test for the Dolphins D.
Best bets: 14 of them. Another bad week last week: 5-9-1; season total: 17-28-2.
Buf +3
Det -3
Chi/Det over 48
Sea/Hou over 41 1/2
Ind/Jax under 42
Min +2 1/2
NYG/KC under 43 1/2
Az/TB over 40
Den -11
Was -3
Was/Oak under 44 1/2
SD +1 1/2
Atl -2 1/2
NO -6 1/2
Supercontest picks: Last week: 2-2-1; overall: 4-9-2
Buf +3
Min +2 1/2
Was -3
SD +2 1/2
Atl -2 1/2
Sep 22, 2013
Typhoon Blogging
The Super Typhoon "Usagi" is heading our way today and tomorrow. We are about 120 km (90 miles) upstream from Hong Kong - which is right on the ocean. A category 2 typhoon is making landfall right about now in Hong Kong - you may have heard about it!School has already been cancelled for tomorrow for the kids.
What did we do to prepare? Well, as of one hour ago - it was barely raining, and the boys were playing outside with 6 of their friends.
The major brunt of the storm will be overnight - about 4 hours from now - into tomorrow. According to some maps, the storm should still be a category 1 as it heads over Guangzhou....we will see about that. I hate to think that the "weather panic" we see in the US has infiltrated the Chinese culture as well.
NFL Week 3: Australia
After the last two weeks of incredibly poor picking, and the Trent mess, it feels like it is time for a vacation from the picks and NFL analysis to get recharged. The best way to do this is to recap the best vacation we have had out here in Asia so far - our trip to Australia. In February, we spent 4 days in Sydney and 5 days at an island near the reef. The whole trip was a once-in-a-lifetime experience - kind of like trading your star RB after 18 games. The trip started off on the wrong foot, as we watched a replay of the 4th quarter of the Super Bowl in the hotel lobby as we checked in. Not knowing the score (or the whole story about the power outage), we kept hoping that Kaepernick would pull something out to win...but no dice.
Sydney was wonderful - clean, clear, friendly, beautiful. I was surprised to see that the city is fairly small in terms of size and population...it's about 4 million people in total, and the total area of the city limits seemed to be shrunk in. It reminded me of Boston (but with much, much nicer people and weather).
The best part of Sydney was a water taxi coming in from a day trip to the mountains back to the harbor. What sites! The Opera House glistened that day.
Oh - and the gambling! I meant to make this a separate post earlier - but I never got around to it. Australia has gaming - and it's great! Yes, there is one casino in Sydney. We went there one night, taught my friend how to play craps. Two impressions:
1. It was a $10 minimum; we were playing the pass line with single odds. I threw $2 on the hard 10. It was returned to me. Why? "Sir, this is a $10 minumum table!". So the minimum on the hard ways was $10, as well.......surprising to see them turn down that action.
2. At the end of the session, we made a few dollars, so I threw a couple of purple chips to them. (In Australia, purples are $5.). It also was rejected. "No tipping allowed, sir". OK then!
But the best part was the TAB machines. I'm not sure what TAB stands for, but it is an electronic kiosk that was everywhere in downtown Sydney. The kiosks are set up for sports betting....multiple sports were available from all over the world!. On this random February day, it was lunchtime - about 1:00 Australian time - which meant it was 10:00 pm Pacific time. I stepped up to the kiosk - there were late night NBA games still to tip off!$5 wager on Sacramento getting +7.5 vs. Utah - easy money! (yes, they did win)
And then it was off to the Reef. Just amazing. The water was clear, the weather was wonderful, and I can't even try to do justice to the sea life we saw in the ocean. It was disconcerting to be sent out 18 miles away from the island to a random buoy in order to go snorkeling.....but it's something the boys and us will never forget.*
(*except for Martin. We kept him home at the day care. Hope he will forgive us!)
The recreational activities were memorable, too. 90 minutes of tubing for the boys. They had a racquetball court - and everyone had fun whakcing the ball all over the walls. Sailboating and trying to see Dad manage a catamaran.An incredible vacation...and it's full of memories of great times when things get depressing here in China.
Kind of like now....these are the days I sit in the corner, hold me knees, and just mutter "Bernie.....Brennan.....Dixon..... Minnifield.....Matthews .....Mack......Langhorne...... Slaughter....."
I just hope our managment knows what it's doing to send us down this path.......or else I will be dreaming of Australia and the mid-80s Browns more and more.....
Now, to the picks ....I'm recharged after that recollection Down Under! Time to reclaim the mojo!
Hou 23, Bal 13. I watched that Ravens offense vs. the Browns last week - I am not impressed.
NYG 31, Car 20. Hmmm...a desperate team with a good passing offense (Giants) meet a team where it's biggest weakness is its pass defense......
Cin 23, GB 20. I'm thinking the Bengals D will put up a good fight against the one-dimensional Packers.
Dal 27, StL 17. I don't see the Rams keeping up with the Cowboys offense in Dallas.
NE 21, TB 16. I don't think any outcome would surprise me here.
NO 30, Az 27. I am impressed with the Palmer - Fitzgerald connection.
Ten 27, SD 20. I know very little about the Chargers..but I have been impressed with the improvement of the Titans so far this season.
Was 27, Det 24. I don't think we can trust Detroit outside until further notice...(or until Oct 13th.)
Mia 24, Atl 20. A classic stay away game. Is Miami for real? Can Atlanta play well outdoors? Will Miami's run game show up? Will Atlanta's offense be consistent against a competent defense?
NYJ 20, Buf 13. Let's be clear - the Bills had 3 points in the first half vs. the Panthers - at home - and 7 offensive points at the half vs. the Pats - at home. This is a road game. I have faith in the Jets D.
SF 30, Ind 17. The Niners will take out their anger from last week against the poor Indy line.
Sea 23, Jax 10. You always take 19 points. Always ! Especially after an emotional win by the home team the prior week.
Chi 24, Pit 23. I see a turnover fest here leading to easy points on both sides.
Den 34, Oak 17. We all know what Denver can do - I am interested to see how good or bad Oakland is.
And if these results hold, there will be a three way tie for second in the AFC North at 1-2. I have a good feeling about the game today. Just when everyone writes them off.....
Best bets: 15 of them. Last week: 6-9; overall: 12-19-1.
Hou -1
Hou/Bal under 45
NYG -2
Cin +3
GB/Cin under 49 1/2
TB/NE under 44
Az +7
Az/NO over 48 1/2
Ten -3
Was +1
NYJ -2 1/2
SF -10
Jax +18 1/2
Sea/Jax under 40 1/2
Chi/Pit over 40 1/2
Supercontest: time to get in gear. Last week: 1-4; overall: 2-7-1. Ugh.
NYG +1
Ten -3
Cin +2 1/2
NYJ -2 1/2
Jax +19
Sep 20, 2013
The Richardson Trade: Peter Griffin or Albert Einstein?
Anything happen in the sports world this week?
Well, that was a nice wakeup call on Thursday morning...It's a 4 day holiday weekend here, I leisurely wakeup, have a coffee - and see several texts on my phone.....Did the market go up 200 points? (Well, it did...)
I'm still trying to process the trade. Yes, it was a shock. But I think we really have to forget about the short term effect here and think long term. And net, I think this is a long term positive for the Browns (but there's a big if).
Here are some of the arguments:
1. They just drafted him last year! What's wrong with the Browns' front office - getting rid of a first round draft pick from last year!
Um, this is the dumbest argument I have heard. This is like saying "We had Rumsfeld as our Defense Secretary in 2008 - and now we have a new one in 2009!" Why is that?
Because there was a little event called an election in November 2008.....
Same thing here....there was a regime change last year. New Owners, new front office - and I think they got fair value for Richardson. So the new leadership had no ties to the past.
2. How can you throw in the towel on the season on September 18th??
Did you watch the first two games? Even Eric "Pollyanna" Zahn was disappointed. After the loss to Miami, it was clear my estimate of 8-8 was a bit....um....inflated. And then we score 6 points vs. teh Ravens. We're throwing in the towel on the season when the best case was....6-10? Oh dear, how will I survive?
3. The Family Guy "Mystery Box" argument.
I saw this on Deadspin...and it's convincing! I love this episode. Required viewing before we go on:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ir-s3Cn52FU
We're stockpiling draft picks! We could even turn them into a all-star stud RB!
I'm 98% sure we will be drafting a QB with these first round picks next year - but we somehow we draft a RB, Banner/Lombardi should be sent on a ship to Lake Erie.
4. Your GM drafted Jamarcus Russell #1 overall one year.
OK, it's not confirmed that Lombardi pulled the final trigger on that one...but yes, he was part of the staff that drafted Russell......I can't defend that.
Arguments for the trade:
1. How long will we plod along, doing the same thing, over and over, until we finally blow it up (and mean it)?
This is where Einstein comes in. I use this quote at work a lot: "Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, and expexcting different results".
The last few regimes were trying to do the same thing - get talent on the team - somehow get the QB through free agency (Anderson, Delhomme) or a later round draft pick (McCoy, Frye, Quinn to some extent, Weeden to more of an extent) and home the talent lifts the QB up.
I think it is safe to say that has not worked in the past 8-10 years.
This strategy has given us one winning season in the past 10; one playoff season in the past 15.
In the past 10 years, our 2nd best season - OUR SECOND BEST SEASON - is 6-10.
2. This is a passing league.
Can any of you doubt this? Running backs seem to be going out of style. It is not necessary to have a great RB on your team to be championship caliber. This was not the case 10-15 years ago; it certainly is now. Trent is not going to lift this team up to 8-9 wins - he just isn't, not in the league today. So trade him while we can get value. And I think his trade value would have decreased.
3. The QB is of utmost importance - so you have to get one.
Getting the QB is paramount to success in the league nowadays. It's clear to me (now), and was clear to Banner/Lombardi from day 1 when they took over.
They have a plan, and are going to execute it.
I am in favor of this plan now, going forward. We needed a radical change to get out of this rut. The key, of course, is getting the right QB - whcih is no guarantee.
My advise is to draft a QB at every pick we have in the first 3 rounds - so we have 4 rookies on the roster. One of them has GOT to work out, right? And there is precedence for this - look at the Redskins last year. they drafted RG III, and then drafted Kirk Cousins later (who beat us and others down the stretch). Why not draft 2 or 3 to see if one of them is the star?
So those that will "quit the Browns" now - *cough*Don*cough* - fine. This is like sticking to your driver that you constantly hit out of bounds, but are too stubborn to change...so you keep swinging "harder" and steer it more - but it just makes things worse. Get the new driver and get on with life....there will be growing pains, yes....(like a 2-14 season this year)....but the payoff down the road could be fantastic.
Well, that was a nice wakeup call on Thursday morning...It's a 4 day holiday weekend here, I leisurely wakeup, have a coffee - and see several texts on my phone.....Did the market go up 200 points? (Well, it did...)
I'm still trying to process the trade. Yes, it was a shock. But I think we really have to forget about the short term effect here and think long term. And net, I think this is a long term positive for the Browns (but there's a big if).
Here are some of the arguments:
1. They just drafted him last year! What's wrong with the Browns' front office - getting rid of a first round draft pick from last year!
Um, this is the dumbest argument I have heard. This is like saying "We had Rumsfeld as our Defense Secretary in 2008 - and now we have a new one in 2009!" Why is that?
Because there was a little event called an election in November 2008.....
Same thing here....there was a regime change last year. New Owners, new front office - and I think they got fair value for Richardson. So the new leadership had no ties to the past.
2. How can you throw in the towel on the season on September 18th??
Did you watch the first two games? Even Eric "Pollyanna" Zahn was disappointed. After the loss to Miami, it was clear my estimate of 8-8 was a bit....um....inflated. And then we score 6 points vs. teh Ravens. We're throwing in the towel on the season when the best case was....6-10? Oh dear, how will I survive?
3. The Family Guy "Mystery Box" argument.
I saw this on Deadspin...and it's convincing! I love this episode. Required viewing before we go on:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ir-s3Cn52FU
We're stockpiling draft picks! We could even turn them into a all-star stud RB!
I'm 98% sure we will be drafting a QB with these first round picks next year - but we somehow we draft a RB, Banner/Lombardi should be sent on a ship to Lake Erie.
4. Your GM drafted Jamarcus Russell #1 overall one year.
OK, it's not confirmed that Lombardi pulled the final trigger on that one...but yes, he was part of the staff that drafted Russell......I can't defend that.
Arguments for the trade:
1. How long will we plod along, doing the same thing, over and over, until we finally blow it up (and mean it)?This is where Einstein comes in. I use this quote at work a lot: "Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, and expexcting different results".
The last few regimes were trying to do the same thing - get talent on the team - somehow get the QB through free agency (Anderson, Delhomme) or a later round draft pick (McCoy, Frye, Quinn to some extent, Weeden to more of an extent) and home the talent lifts the QB up.
I think it is safe to say that has not worked in the past 8-10 years.
This strategy has given us one winning season in the past 10; one playoff season in the past 15.
In the past 10 years, our 2nd best season - OUR SECOND BEST SEASON - is 6-10.
2. This is a passing league.
Can any of you doubt this? Running backs seem to be going out of style. It is not necessary to have a great RB on your team to be championship caliber. This was not the case 10-15 years ago; it certainly is now. Trent is not going to lift this team up to 8-9 wins - he just isn't, not in the league today. So trade him while we can get value. And I think his trade value would have decreased.
3. The QB is of utmost importance - so you have to get one.
Getting the QB is paramount to success in the league nowadays. It's clear to me (now), and was clear to Banner/Lombardi from day 1 when they took over.
They have a plan, and are going to execute it.
I am in favor of this plan now, going forward. We needed a radical change to get out of this rut. The key, of course, is getting the right QB - whcih is no guarantee.
My advise is to draft a QB at every pick we have in the first 3 rounds - so we have 4 rookies on the roster. One of them has GOT to work out, right? And there is precedence for this - look at the Redskins last year. they drafted RG III, and then drafted Kirk Cousins later (who beat us and others down the stretch). Why not draft 2 or 3 to see if one of them is the star?
So those that will "quit the Browns" now - *cough*Don*cough* - fine. This is like sticking to your driver that you constantly hit out of bounds, but are too stubborn to change...so you keep swinging "harder" and steer it more - but it just makes things worse. Get the new driver and get on with life....there will be growing pains, yes....(like a 2-14 season this year)....but the payoff down the road could be fantastic.
Sep 15, 2013
NFL Week 2 : Hong Kong
Well, that wasn’t a very good first week. Some bad beats, some complete miscalculations on teams (Patriots??) and some obvious traps that I did not avoid (Texans) foiled me last week. Time to get back to normal this week (hopefully) as we get a better sense of these teams.
When we want to get “back to normal”, the closest outlet we have for that is Hong Kong. Hong Kong is officially part of China, but it does feel like a completely different culture and society. First – and most importantly – English is an official language there (still), so you can actually understand all the signs that surround you. Almost everyone speaks English as well. This is an incredbible rellef after being in China for months at a time dealing with simple miscommunications.
The city is far, far more diverse than Guangzhou. There is a heavy Australian population there, as well as a big European influence – not to mention the British. Any sort of food is readily available….just last weekend we were there and we had BLT for dinner! Yes, the real hamburger restaurant! I had the tex-Mex burger with the Vanilla shake. Exquisite.
(There’s also a breakfast “diner” down the road from our regular hotel that serves pancakes, omelettes, and French toast like any American diner. We’ve been there many a time).
It’s not home, but it’s the closest you can get while over here. As I have said many times before, you can “breathe” there. The people are friendlier, and don’t seem to crowd you as much as in Guangzhou. The city is clean and organized –helpful for taxis and for reading maps. The tourist sites are understandable – like Stanley, an English outpost on the back end of the main island that has a San Diego-feel to it.
The reason why we went there last week was for a group boat trip; someone organized a group of 60 of us to rent 2 yachts and cruise around the island for a day. Pure heaven to get away – except for the part where the group of 8- to 12-year old kids found that if you put ice on the upper deck, you can slide around like a curling stone on ice…..fun, until someone’s legs (mine) got in the way of one of those stones…..
Hong Kong is a great place to get away for a few days – you really can’t spend more than 3 days there – every six months to get your fill of regular, normal, Western life. Let’s get that normalcy back here in week 2 with the picks…time for a winning record! I did get a wager in on the Jets for the Thursday game, so I do feel a bit better.
I hate to say it, but I see a “normal” beatdown of the Browns this weekend. What are we on now, 8 losses in a row to the Ravens? I really can’t see anything different here, with an angry Ravens team and our surprisiningly inept offense. Oh sure, we will give hope – like we always to – we will be down 3 late in the 3rd, driving, and then something will happen – a Trent fumble, or (more likely) a tipped pass interception. It won’t be Ed Reed running it back 105 yards for a TD – who’s the safety now for the Ravens? That’s the guy to score a defensive TD against us.
On to the games:
Car 23, Buf 17. The Panthers have the run game to attack Buffalo’s D. I was not impressed with Buffalo’s offense last week.
Ind 30, Mia 23. I think we were the main cause of Miami’s victory last week – it wasn’t much of what the Dolphins did. And I think Luck’s home magic will pull them through again.
Hou 24, Ten 13. I know they played Monday – but Houston has something to prove after that ugly game. And let’s not crown the Titans yet.
KC 28, Dal 24. No real clue what to expect here – Dallas usually doesn’t do well on the road – but how good is KC, really?
GB 31, Was 21. The Packers are desperate here – and Washington can be exposed against the pass.
Phi 31, SD 20. The Eagles seem to sure be the easy pick here, right? This seems too easy – SD, a West Coast team, losing a heartbreaker and heading east….yes, I may fall for it.
Chi 24, Min 16. I will be one of the last doubters of the Bears – now watch them go 6-0 to start the season.
TB 24, NO 23. This seems like a game where everyone will be on the side of the Saints – and they are in the Supercontest – but it’s a game they can easily lose to a suddenly desperate Buccaneers team.
Atl 24, StL 13. Speaking of desperate – the Falcons will lay the wood on the Rams here. I was not impressed watching the Rams last week….tough to say if the Cards D is good, but I think Atl’s D is better.
NYG 30, Den 27. Way overvaluing the Broncos and totally disrespecting the Giants (and Coughlin). The Giants turned the ball over 7 times – and almost won! – last week!
Az 27, Det 24. I have no idea – can we really trust the Lions on the road just yet?
Oak 17, Jax 13. Not sure if Oakland can move the ball consistently – we don’t know how good or bad the Colts D is just yet – and the Jags will have problems on O. So watch this game be a classic 38-35 shootout.
Sea 27, SF 20. I think people are consistently underrating the home field advantage the Seahawks have. They absolutely have to have this game if they want to reach the Super Bowl. That is not an exaggeration.
Cin 21, Pit 20. Desperation with the Steelers plus the “great” coaching of Marvin Lewis equals a game that will be a lot closer than people think. Big Ben doesn’t lose in Cincinnati, and he’s used to having his line collapse.
Best bets: 15 this week. Last week: 6-10-1.
When we want to get “back to normal”, the closest outlet we have for that is Hong Kong. Hong Kong is officially part of China, but it does feel like a completely different culture and society. First – and most importantly – English is an official language there (still), so you can actually understand all the signs that surround you. Almost everyone speaks English as well. This is an incredbible rellef after being in China for months at a time dealing with simple miscommunications.
The city is far, far more diverse than Guangzhou. There is a heavy Australian population there, as well as a big European influence – not to mention the British. Any sort of food is readily available….just last weekend we were there and we had BLT for dinner! Yes, the real hamburger restaurant! I had the tex-Mex burger with the Vanilla shake. Exquisite.(There’s also a breakfast “diner” down the road from our regular hotel that serves pancakes, omelettes, and French toast like any American diner. We’ve been there many a time).
It’s not home, but it’s the closest you can get while over here. As I have said many times before, you can “breathe” there. The people are friendlier, and don’t seem to crowd you as much as in Guangzhou. The city is clean and organized –helpful for taxis and for reading maps. The tourist sites are understandable – like Stanley, an English outpost on the back end of the main island that has a San Diego-feel to it.
The reason why we went there last week was for a group boat trip; someone organized a group of 60 of us to rent 2 yachts and cruise around the island for a day. Pure heaven to get away – except for the part where the group of 8- to 12-year old kids found that if you put ice on the upper deck, you can slide around like a curling stone on ice…..fun, until someone’s legs (mine) got in the way of one of those stones…..
Hong Kong is a great place to get away for a few days – you really can’t spend more than 3 days there – every six months to get your fill of regular, normal, Western life. Let’s get that normalcy back here in week 2 with the picks…time for a winning record! I did get a wager in on the Jets for the Thursday game, so I do feel a bit better.
I hate to say it, but I see a “normal” beatdown of the Browns this weekend. What are we on now, 8 losses in a row to the Ravens? I really can’t see anything different here, with an angry Ravens team and our surprisiningly inept offense. Oh sure, we will give hope – like we always to – we will be down 3 late in the 3rd, driving, and then something will happen – a Trent fumble, or (more likely) a tipped pass interception. It won’t be Ed Reed running it back 105 yards for a TD – who’s the safety now for the Ravens? That’s the guy to score a defensive TD against us.
On to the games:
Car 23, Buf 17. The Panthers have the run game to attack Buffalo’s D. I was not impressed with Buffalo’s offense last week.
Ind 30, Mia 23. I think we were the main cause of Miami’s victory last week – it wasn’t much of what the Dolphins did. And I think Luck’s home magic will pull them through again.
Hou 24, Ten 13. I know they played Monday – but Houston has something to prove after that ugly game. And let’s not crown the Titans yet.
KC 28, Dal 24. No real clue what to expect here – Dallas usually doesn’t do well on the road – but how good is KC, really?
GB 31, Was 21. The Packers are desperate here – and Washington can be exposed against the pass.
Phi 31, SD 20. The Eagles seem to sure be the easy pick here, right? This seems too easy – SD, a West Coast team, losing a heartbreaker and heading east….yes, I may fall for it.
Chi 24, Min 16. I will be one of the last doubters of the Bears – now watch them go 6-0 to start the season.
TB 24, NO 23. This seems like a game where everyone will be on the side of the Saints – and they are in the Supercontest – but it’s a game they can easily lose to a suddenly desperate Buccaneers team.
Atl 24, StL 13. Speaking of desperate – the Falcons will lay the wood on the Rams here. I was not impressed watching the Rams last week….tough to say if the Cards D is good, but I think Atl’s D is better.
NYG 30, Den 27. Way overvaluing the Broncos and totally disrespecting the Giants (and Coughlin). The Giants turned the ball over 7 times – and almost won! – last week!
Az 27, Det 24. I have no idea – can we really trust the Lions on the road just yet?
Oak 17, Jax 13. Not sure if Oakland can move the ball consistently – we don’t know how good or bad the Colts D is just yet – and the Jags will have problems on O. So watch this game be a classic 38-35 shootout.
Sea 27, SF 20. I think people are consistently underrating the home field advantage the Seahawks have. They absolutely have to have this game if they want to reach the Super Bowl. That is not an exaggeration.
Cin 21, Pit 20. Desperation with the Steelers plus the “great” coaching of Marvin Lewis equals a game that will be a lot closer than people think. Big Ben doesn’t lose in Cincinnati, and he’s used to having his line collapse.
Best bets: 15 this week. Last week: 6-10-1.
Car -3
Ind -2 1/2
Mia/Ind over 43
Hou -8
Ten/Houo under 43
Dal/KC over 46
Phi -7 1/2
TB +3
Atl -5 1/2
StL/Atl under 46 1/2
Az +2
NYG +4 1/2
Jax/Oak under 39 1/2
Sea -3
Pit +7
Supercontest picks: Last week: 1-3-1
Supercontest picks: Last week: 1-3-1
Car -3
Ind -2 1/2
Atl -6 1/2
NYG +4 1/2
Pit +7
Jeesh, I don't like the number of favorites I have this week......
Jeesh, I don't like the number of favorites I have this week......
Sep 8, 2013
NFL Week 1: Kota Kinabalu
Welcome to another annual edition of Eric’s themed NFL picks! This year’s theme is Asia vacation spots. After being here for 3+ years, we’ve racked up a few vacations around Asia – both very good and so-so. You know the deal – we will relate this week’s NFL theme to one of our vacations over here on this side of the world; then give one-sentence predictions on each game – and then ending with the world-famous best bets.For the first week, I bring you Kota Kinabalu. This is a city in Malaysia – the largest city on the east island of the country (Borneo). This was our first vacation outside of China when we landed here. We moved here August, 2010, and one week later our friends asked us “So – where are you going for the October vacation? You need to book now!” That was a shock – we haven’t even moved into our real apartment yet, and we were forced to make plans for a trip 6 weeks from now?
Our friends told us to go to the Shangri La at Kota Kinabalu – it’s easy and a good first trip. We had no idea what to expect for this trip. We picked a room on line – 31 sq m sounded big. There was a bus to take us from the airport to the hotel; and from there, it was a beach and a pool. What would the language barriers be? Safety? Food?
The trip was a good introduction to life and trips in Asia. Immigration was a bit rough – we quickly found out that we should fill out all paperwork ahead of time, instead of doing it on line. The “bus” to the hotel was a 50-passenger bus that was half full and had a bunch of Europeans that were not friendly at all; the “city” of Kota Kinabalu is stretching it. Saying that’s the largest Malaysian cityin Borneo is like saying ND St. is the best college football team - in MT, WY, ND and SD combined. And hotel rooms in Asia are not built for 5 people – 31 sq m is waaaaaayyyyy too small for 3 kids. Lesson learned.
But we quickly learned many things as well. It’s ok to take a vacation where you go off the property for only 1/2 day. Floating villages do exist. People in Southeast Asia are very friendly, generally. All sorts of food options were available. Their idea of a “beach” was not exactly the beaches I had in mind from Ocean City, Rehoboth or Fort Walton Beach. Asians don’t necessarily use their beach for swimming. And the boys got to feed orangutangs.
In all, it was a great introduction to Asia vacations – it wasn’t the most cultural (in fact, it was certainly the least cultural, with the exception of Warren being a prince in the nightly parade). But It gave us a clue on what to expect when planning trips for the future.And that’s what week 1 is here for the NFL. We’re not sure what to expect – we have an idea on how these teams look from past years – but of course, 2013 will be different, as every year is. This week, like Kota Kinabalu, will give us a sneak peak at the changes for 2013 in each team. For instance, I would relate Norv Turner to the GM of a Shangri La- and Pat Shurmur is the night janitor at the Macau Grand Waldo.
Can we please change it up this year? Can we actaully win in week 1? The line is moving - the Browns are a popular pick! They are one of the top 5 picks in the supercontest, and the line has moved 2 points in 3 days. I think that scares me even more about this game.
(And – can we expect the Ravens’ D to give up 7 TD passes every week? I’ll take 6 TD’s next week….)
On to the games:
NE 24, Buf 9. I know EJ Manuel is the starter in place of Tuel. I just have to believe Belichick will design something for the rookie QB with only one good receiver.
Car 20, Sea 17. Carolina has the LB’s to neutralize Marshawn – and I’m not sure I trust Wilson yet on the road, outdoors, in a 1 pm Eastern game with no Percy Harvin.
Cin 23, Chi 19. Are we sure we know how good Chicago is? It takes a while to learn Trestman’s offense.
Det 31, Min 24. Should be a lot of points, as Detroit can’t stop the run (Peterson) and Minnesota’s Pass D is very shaky (for Megatron)
Ind 28, Oak 17. Oak may be able to move the ball here against the weak Ind run D.
KC 19, Jax 17. I’d be very scared of this game if I were a Chiefs fan. What exactly do you have in Alex Smith and Andy Reid?
Atl 34, NO 31. From personal experience, you don’t get that much of a defensive upgrade when you hire Rob Ryan.
TB 19, NYJ 10. If the Jets go down 7 in this game, how do they move the ball?
Pit 23, Ten 20. I’m sorry, I may be biased(um – you are. Period. –ed) but I think the Steelers are ready for a decline. Can the revamped Ten O open up holes for Chirs Johnson? I say yes.
StL 19, Az 10. Regardless of what my idol Bernie Kosar says, I like Jeff Fisher and the foundation is in place in St Louis. I think that means a easy win vs. Carson Palmer.
GB 24, SF 23. The Packers had all off season to solve Kaepernick – and I believe they will design the D to force Kapernick to throw the ball – and who will he throw it to? This is a statement game, just like week 1 last year when the Niners went into Lambeau and won.
Dal 31, NYG 27. Is every NFC East game going to be within 3-7 points?
Was 24, Phi 20. This is a game I will just watch to see how Chip Kelly’s offense will perform in the NFL – and if Vick can actually run it.
Hou 27, SD 17. I know this is a trap , but I just can’t see how the SD Offensvie line stops Houston’s pass rush.
Best bets: 17 of them.
NE -9 1/2
NE/Buf under 51
Car +3
Sea/Car under 45
Cin +3
Min/Det over 46 1/2
Atl +3
Atl/NO over 55 1/2
TB -3 1/2
TB/NYJ under 39 1/2
Ten +6 1/2
StL -4 1/2
Az/Stl under 41 1/2
GB +4 1/2
NYG/Dal over 50
Phi/Was under 52
Phi/Was under 52
Hou -4
Supercontest picks:
Supercontest picks:
Cin +3
Ten +7
GB +4 1/2
StL -4 1/2
Hou -4
Sep 7, 2013
NFL Nostaglia
It seems every year we spend the NFL opening kickoff weekend in Hong Kong. This allows me to have free access to YouTube - and to get pumped up by watching old NFL broadcast openings !
While we wait for the week 1 picks to come up - later today China time - spend some time down memory lane by watching these NFL telecast openings on CBS. Which theme song reigns supreme ?
Stay to the end of each for some fun surprises! In the first, you will see our friend Verne 25 years younger ( and 60 pounds lighter); in the second, someone needs to get Hank Stram some AquaNet immediately !
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cE5Sn-DWXhE&feature=related
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JXIaXleffC0&feature=related
While we wait for the week 1 picks to come up - later today China time - spend some time down memory lane by watching these NFL telecast openings on CBS. Which theme song reigns supreme ?
Stay to the end of each for some fun surprises! In the first, you will see our friend Verne 25 years younger ( and 60 pounds lighter); in the second, someone needs to get Hank Stram some AquaNet immediately !
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=cE5Sn-DWXhE&feature=related
http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=JXIaXleffC0&feature=related
Sep 1, 2013
Supercontest Notes
It's just about here - the NFL season! We will continue the weekly posts here on the blog, linking the NFL picks each week to a random subject....last year, it was Asian meals; the year before, it was a review of casinos that I have been at. Any ideas for the topic for this year's picks are welcome!
To recap:
Last year: record: 142-124-9 (53.4%)
Overall record: 875-794-51 (52.4%)
We will be in the Supercontest again this year! Our 3rd year of running with the bulls and seeing where we stack up with the best handicappers in the world. I've compiled some interesting stats from our picks over the past 2 years - and they are eye openers. Maybe I should have these tattoeed inside my eyelids so I get this information ingrained.
Record for the 2 years of the Super Contest:
Overall: 81-83-6.
Picking Away Favorites: 14-7-3 (!)
Picking Away Dogs: 25-27-1
Picking Home Favorites: 25-38-2 (!!!)
Picking Home Dogs: 17-10
Most picked teams in the last 2 years:
11 times: New York Jets: 4-5-2 in those games
10 times: Tampa Bay: 4-6
9 times: Dallas: 4-4-1
Least picked teams (outside of the Browns):
2 times: Oakland: 0-2
3 times: Green Bay: 2-1
3 times: New York Giants: 1-2
3 times: San Fran: 3-0
3 times: Washington: 1-2
Now, for opponents: Who did we pick against?
Most times picking against a team:
9 times picked against Oakland: 5-4
8 times picked against Chicago: 4-4
8 times picked agaisnt Houston: 5-3
8 times picked against San Diego: 5-3
8 times picked against Tennessee: 2-5-1 (!)
Least times picking against a team:
2 times picked against Atlanta: 0-2
2 times picked against Denver: 0-2
2 times picked against KC: 2-0
Random notes:
We are 4-0 when picking with the Bears
We are 5-1 when picking with the Patriots, and 3-0-1 picking against the Pats!
I'm still shocked we picked Rex Ryan's team 11 times in 2 years.
To recap:
Last year: record: 142-124-9 (53.4%)
Overall record: 875-794-51 (52.4%)
We will be in the Supercontest again this year! Our 3rd year of running with the bulls and seeing where we stack up with the best handicappers in the world. I've compiled some interesting stats from our picks over the past 2 years - and they are eye openers. Maybe I should have these tattoeed inside my eyelids so I get this information ingrained.
Record for the 2 years of the Super Contest:
Overall: 81-83-6.
Picking Away Favorites: 14-7-3 (!)
Picking Away Dogs: 25-27-1
Picking Home Favorites: 25-38-2 (!!!)
Picking Home Dogs: 17-10
Most picked teams in the last 2 years:
11 times: New York Jets: 4-5-2 in those games
10 times: Tampa Bay: 4-6
9 times: Dallas: 4-4-1
Least picked teams (outside of the Browns):
2 times: Oakland: 0-2
3 times: Green Bay: 2-1
3 times: New York Giants: 1-2
3 times: San Fran: 3-0
3 times: Washington: 1-2
Now, for opponents: Who did we pick against?
Most times picking against a team:
9 times picked against Oakland: 5-4
8 times picked against Chicago: 4-4
8 times picked agaisnt Houston: 5-3
8 times picked against San Diego: 5-3
8 times picked against Tennessee: 2-5-1 (!)
Least times picking against a team:
2 times picked against Atlanta: 0-2
2 times picked against Denver: 0-2
2 times picked against KC: 2-0
Random notes:
We are 4-0 when picking with the Bears
We are 5-1 when picking with the Patriots, and 3-0-1 picking against the Pats!
I'm still shocked we picked Rex Ryan's team 11 times in 2 years.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)